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A Clinton SuperPAC should open up some "issue driven" taco trucks and make some extra money while driving roving billboards around.
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Sep 3, 2016 02:58
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They're growing Millennial Pod people to vote for Trump?!
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Sep 3, 2016 02:59
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I'm trying to imagine a scenario where Trump wins the debate. He cannot go head to head with her on policy. His vague proposals will not stand up to scrutiny and so all she has to do is press for details. His only hope is to catch her off guard and break her concentration. He'd have to say something offensive enough to trip her up, but not so offensive that it actually costs him votes. You know she's prepping for emails, benghazi, and every other Clinton scandal. I've got nothing.
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Sep 3, 2016 03:01
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Rotten Red Rod posted:https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/771858220864434181 Why the gently caress are his eye sockets trying to eat his eyebrows?
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Sep 3, 2016 03:03
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size1one posted:I'm trying to imagine a scenario where Trump wins the debate. He cannot go head to head with her on policy. His vague proposals will not stand up to scrutiny and so all she has to do is press for details. His only hope is to catch her off guard and break her concentration. He'd have to say something offensive enough to trip her up, but not so offensive that it actually costs him votes. You know she's prepping for emails, benghazi, and every other Clinton scandal. I've got nothing. He doesn't throw up and because he has cleared the extremely low bar he was given, he will be declared the winner. Most people don't watch the debate and just get their opinion of it from the press the next day so what actually happens during it doesn't really matter
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Sep 3, 2016 03:03
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size1one posted:I'm trying to imagine a scenario where Trump wins the debate. He cannot go head to head with her on policy. His vague proposals will not stand up to scrutiny and so all she has to do is press for details. His only hope is to catch her off guard and break her concentration. He'd have to say something offensive enough to trip her up, but not so offensive that it actually costs him votes. You know she's prepping for emails, benghazi, and every other Clinton scandal. I've got nothing. The press decides he won because they're still pissy babies about ~access~.
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Sep 3, 2016 03:08
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Instant Sunrise posted:Garak for president
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Sep 3, 2016 03:09
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Apparently Tiger Beat on the Potomac didn't get the memo about pushing a horserace: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/clintons-advisers-tell-her-to-prep-for-a-landslide-227659 quote:Advisers to Hillary Clinton’s campaign have identified so many paths to an Election Day victory they are now focusing not only on the one or two battlegrounds that would ensure a win but on opening up the possibility of an Electoral College landslide. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-campaign-turmoil-227652 quote:The plan to get to 270 electoral votes remains unclear. The battleground state deployment plan is a work in progress. Money from big donors is slowing to a trickle. And aides are confused about who’s calling the shots.
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Sep 3, 2016 03:10
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"Trump went five whole minutes before making GBS threads himself on stage and only pouted and turned his back on the moderators, refusing to talk or acknowledge them, four times. Clearly the winner of the first round of debates"
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Sep 3, 2016 03:10
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Epic High Five posted:He doesn't throw up and because he has cleared the extremely low bar he was given, he will be declared the winner. A lot of people are going to watch this live. And if it were true that everyone just deferred to the media narrative with these things than how come it was nationally recognized that Trump's RNC speech was so bad and the entire DNC was propelled Hillary's numbers into orbit?
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Sep 3, 2016 03:13
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Epic High Five posted:He doesn't throw up and because he has cleared the extremely low bar he was given, he will be declared the winner. Most elections aren't even remotely this contentious. I think a lot of people will tune in hoping to see the train wreck.
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Sep 3, 2016 03:16
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:A lot of people are going to watch this live. And if it were true that everyone just deferred to the media narrative with these things than how come it was nationally recognized that Trump's RNC speech was so bad and the entire DNC was propelled Hillary's numbers into orbit? The press the day after Trump's speech were largely saying it was ghastly, dark, and scarily authoritarian. Clinton did get a big, long lasting boost from the DNC that has faded a bit nationally, but since then she has put NH and CO and VA into "for sure" territory. I'd say that's a pretty big boost. size1one posted:Most elections aren't even remotely this contentious. I think a lot of people will tune in hoping to see the train wreck. Maybe, but even best case scenarios will have half of the future electorate watching even a minute of it. Where do the other half get their opinions of it from?
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Sep 3, 2016 03:17
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The biggest way Trump could win the first debate is be boring. Have nothing to say, do nothing of importance, Tweet "I'm so bored at this RIGGED DEBATE" live on television, and Hillary could talk all she'd want, but the crowd won't get the blood they tune in for. But this is Trump, so all he has to do is be insulted and that's when the show really begins.
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Sep 3, 2016 03:18
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The scenario where he wins the debate is one where he treads water on policy by giving non-answers, while constantly lobbing bombs at Clinton that land, and comes away without damage to his popularity among his voting base because his voting base hates Clinton and loves every attack. When they ask about policy, he points to the "failed policies of Obama and Clinton", and then digs up as much dirt and innuendo as possible in his answer, openly wandering off-topic and breaking rules because why the hell not. If there's a world where Trump is able to do that without appearing like a total monster and more like a crusader against establishment politics, I can imagine him "winning" the debate. He'll also lie a lot about his policies, and not get called on it because of the nature of a live debate. Even Romney pulled that off. He'll appear more reasonable than he ever has. He'll feign incredulity and try to make Clinton look like a liar, while lying through his teeth in his authentic, convictionless way.
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Sep 3, 2016 03:20
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Man, NPR programs are great. This American Life has an episode on how terrible the Louisiana public defender office got shafted, and as a result a defendant got the best lawyer he could. In the same episode, they talked about how the US had a secret camp where they interrogated Nazi prisoners. Here is the transcript of the episode, number 595.
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Sep 3, 2016 03:21
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Rotten Red Rod posted:https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/771858220864434181 DJ is wearing a checked shirt with a tie, he has to be the millennial.
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Sep 3, 2016 03:22
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THIS IS NOT A REPUBLICAN
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Sep 3, 2016 03:24
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size1one posted:I'm trying to imagine a scenario where Trump wins the debate. He cannot go head to head with her on policy. His vague proposals will not stand up to scrutiny and so all she has to do is press for details. His only hope is to catch her off guard and break her concentration. He'd have to say something offensive enough to trip her up, but not so offensive that it actually costs him votes. You know she's prepping for emails, benghazi, and every other Clinton scandal. I've got nothing.
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Sep 3, 2016 03:34
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Rotten Red Rod posted:https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/771858220864434181 Don't think anyone's mentioned it yet, but they have both vs and versus in the same graphic. Get your poo poo straight!
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Sep 3, 2016 03:44
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Night10194 posted:The press decides he won because they're still pissy babies about ~access~. They're about to get a huge amount of access
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Sep 3, 2016 04:02
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Rotten Red Rod posted:https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/771858220864434181 "here are my three children who are all entitled brats who have jobs because of nepotism, i can fix washing nepotism because..."
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Sep 3, 2016 04:08
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:"here are my three children who are all entitled brats who have jobs because of nepotism, i can fix washing nepotism because..." "...because I know how to do it, and therefore I can stop them at their own game!!" This is literally their logic 
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Sep 3, 2016 04:10
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Trump wins the debate if he is not utterly destroyed by Clinton or the moderator.
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Sep 3, 2016 04:25
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Trabisnikof posted:That's not true in any sense. Like pretty much all parts of it are wrong. This is Trump level logic. Beyond this forum and some documentaries i haven't read anything about drug law history, but if you launder your money how will they know where to get it? as someone who grew up and still is poor, the idea that i could just start selling pricey drugs and hide all the profits away in someone elses name and only have to worry about half a year in the slammer makes drug dealing almost irresistible. I know around where i live they still giving out decades for it. afeelgoodpoop fucked around with this message at 04:28 on Sep 3, 2016 |
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Sep 3, 2016 04:25
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Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:gently caress, I'd vote Quark over Trump, Ferengi at least honor their contracts (even if they negotiate shadily) He'd probably make a better Secretary of State or some other cabinet member that can spend most of the time working in the background (and serving drinks). Poor guy loses 20 IQ points, minimum, when he's the subject of the episode's A-plot (DS9 Ferengi Episodes:  ). Quark would be the most gaffe-prone president to ever preside with the media focus on him 24/7.
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Sep 3, 2016 04:27
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Combed Thunderclap posted:"...because I know how to do it, and therefore I can stop them at their own game!!" That or "it won't effect me personally because I'm too smart!"
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Sep 3, 2016 04:38
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Mr Hootington posted:Trump wins the debate if he is not utterly destroyed by Clinton or the moderator. The moderators just announced are all pretty tough, knowledgable journalists. I doubt they're gonna lob softballs.
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Sep 3, 2016 04:40
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I know we all  over what an actual constitutional convention would mean, but now we can (at least pretend) to find out!
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Sep 3, 2016 04:41
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Periodiko posted:He'll also lie a lot about his policies, and not get called on it because of the nature of a live debate. Even Romney pulled that off. He'll appear more reasonable than he ever has. He'll feign incredulity and try to make Clinton look like a liar, while lying through his teeth in his authentic, convictionless way. Unfortunately he just did that to the President of Mexico. Hillary isn't going to gently caress up like Pena Nieto did. Trump has done the wild man and the "presidential" in debates and national appearances already, meaning that Clinton is ready for him. Plus, Trump just can't help but be Trump when he's in a free form environment without the aid of a teleprompter. theflyingorc posted:They're about to get a huge amount of access If Hillary manages to get the press to gush over some severely limited availability after spending almost the whole year pissing them of by not directly aiding them with their emails idiocy I'm just going to laugh and laugh. So desperate for that press conference that they end up letting her get away with a question about Trump meeting with Pena Nieto and then don't notice her segway the whole thing into a discussion about her binders full of Trump opposition.
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Sep 3, 2016 04:44
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Gyges posted:Most of the sites that aggregate build in a decent fudge factor of uncertainty to their models. Nate's in fact has a sliding scale of uncertainty where the further out from election day the more his model leans towards the Any Given Sunday theory. Further most of the aggregators use national polling either exclusively or as the main base of their models, so they're including the chances of a 2000 type event where a candidate wins the EC but loses the popular vote. Additionally they usually have their own secret sauce blend of assumptions about various outside events and trends that they use to goose their numbers. I listened to the last 538 podcast, and I could have sworn they said their model factors state polling more heavily than national polling.
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Sep 3, 2016 04:49
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beatlegs posted:The moderators just announced are all pretty tough, knowledgable journalists. I doubt they're gonna lob softballs. Yes, but if trump can weather the questions or deflects expertly (lol) he wins because his bar is so low.
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Sep 3, 2016 04:50
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https://twitter.com/MaxRappaport/status/771889497151643648
Redgrendel2001 fucked around with this message at 04:57 on Sep 3, 2016 |
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Sep 3, 2016 04:54
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GalacticAcid posted:Do you differentiate between liberals and the left? I'm not asking to be a dick, some people don't think it's a valuable distinction in the US. Sure, she's very much both.
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Sep 3, 2016 04:55
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Euphoriaphone posted:I listened to the last 538 podcast, and I could have sworn they said their model factors state polling more heavily than national polling. It uses both, but uses the national numbers to manipulate the state numbers if there is either a lack of state polls or a lack of recent enough for their liking state polls. The preference is always for the newest over the average, and the nowcast in particular cares more about trend lines than previous entries.
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Sep 3, 2016 04:55
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door Door door posted:Don't think anyone's mentioned it yet, but they have both vs and versus in the same graphic. Get your poo poo straight! The person you're referring to is 38 years old, AKA the only one in that picture who is 100% not a millennial.
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Sep 3, 2016 05:07
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afeelgoodpoop posted:Beyond this forum and some documentaries i haven't read anything about drug law history, but if you launder your money how will they know where to get it? Because money laundering is a crime already and isn't that easy to do. Very few drug dealers try to launder their money and the ones that do are part of organized crime where throwing away a dealer for a decade doesn't mean poo poo to them. The kinds of people who get hosed by mandatory minimums are not the kind of people laundering money.
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Sep 3, 2016 05:19
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Euphoriaphone posted:I listened to the last 538 podcast, and I could have sworn they said their model factors state polling more heavily than national polling. The big assumption there is that state polls will follow national polls. I'm not sure how true that is especially in this election.
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Sep 3, 2016 05:21
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Rotten Red Rod posted:https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/771858220864434181 I am reminded of the Largo's in Repo the Genetic Opera. 
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Sep 3, 2016 05:22
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door Door door posted:Don't think anyone's mentioned it yet, but they have both vs and versus in the same graphic. Get your poo poo straight! They also apparently forgot to actually use the hashtags from the image in the tweet itself.
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Sep 3, 2016 05:29
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Cross posting this since it is political newsWinkie01 posted:https://twitter.com/NBCian/status/771874612061745152 Imagine how much poo poo any other public (or private) sector group if they refused to work because someone said something mean about them? Also, added to the editorial note, yes San Francisco just fired a shitload of cops for a racism and Oakland PD is embroiled in an insane scandal involving underage prostitutes. I think they are on their fourth police chief since that story broke. Edit: they went through 4 chiefs in a single week as they kept getting implicated or resigning. Plus the current one might not even be legal, but they cant find anyone else to run it right now The Glumslinger fucked around with this message at 05:34 on Sep 3, 2016 |
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Sep 3, 2016 05:31
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