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rscott posted:Hillary Clinton is gonna get a bunch of infrastructure spending passed right and the droughts in California are only gonna get worse, and all those silicon Valley types will have the cash to spare, sounds plausable to me Yeah, she'll bring us back to the prosperity of the 1990s.
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Sep 4, 2016 19:41
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Dr.Zeppelin posted:I don't know if that's The joke is the GOP base is old
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Sep 4, 2016 19:44
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but old people dying off doesn't matter for the tax thing, there is always going to be a group of old people that stand to get utterly ruined by an abrupt transition from production taxes to consumption whenever such a thing is proposed, regardless of their views on things
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Paul MaudDib posted:I hear this all the time, practically anytime a local news channel wants to do a "job market: is it really as hard for those lazy poors to find work as they say?" type piece they get some poor would-be captain of industry on to The job I'm thinking of is no skill, 12 an hour and zero deductible. The issue we're having is they insist on cbc and drug screening and it's not on the bus line.
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Sep 4, 2016 19:44
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about how difficult it is to find trained, skilled machinists or welders who are willing to work for the $10/hr no-benefits jobs they're so graciously offering.
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I think it would take the GOP to lose the presidency and both houses of Congress for the current Southern Strategy - Religious Right - Neocon - Tea Party version to collapse. And it might need to be in the minority in all branches for at least 4 years. Two years and bouncing back to a Congress majority at the next midterm provides enough vindication for this bunch to keep on keeping on. 4 years in the wilderness might be enough to force them to change the nature of their politics. With the post 2010 census gerrymander I don't know that this is possible. Also if their demographics collapsed enough that entities like Fox News changed up to become less of a right wing shill, and the RW media army began to disband, (simply due to loss of their revenue base) that would also help.
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Sep 4, 2016 19:45
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Zwabu posted:I think it would take the GOP to lose the presidency and both houses of Congress for the current Southern Strategy - Religious Right - Neocon - Tea Party version to collapse. And it might need to be in the minority in all branches for at least 4 years. Two years and bouncing back to a Congress majority at the next midterm provides enough vindication for this bunch to keep on keeping on. The thing is, if that's going to happen, it'll likely be 2020 (census and presidential election), unless a lot of the districts get shot down by 2018.
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Sep 4, 2016 19:47
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Except they still have states and lower levels of gov. Many Rs would rather be a big fish in a Koch superfund site than change.
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Sep 4, 2016 19:59
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The other big thing I can see forcing a Republican realignment is if a permanent Democratic White House is able to completely remake the Supreme Court in a liberal image.
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Sep 4, 2016 20:02
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Cthulhumatic posted:Widespread old white death. seriouschat as ghoulish as it is to consider, a really strong flu season would do wonders for progressive causes. Just no 1919 poo poo where it only targets the young and healthy.
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Sep 4, 2016 20:02
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Like say Hillary wins, the Dems retake the Senate, and they get rid of the filibuster. Sure they can't pass legislation through the House, but they can confirm justices like there's no tomorrow. They proceed to fill the entire backlog of judicial appointments to lower courts with liberals. RBG retires, Breyer retires, Kennedy retires, Thomas retires, Hillary appoints five liberal Supreme Court justices, and liberals enjoy a 7-2 majority on the Supreme Court for the next two decades. Republicans retake the Senate in 2018 but the damage is already done.
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Sep 4, 2016 20:07
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And that's when the very real threat of White Genocide by Liberal Policies allows Speaker Cruz to drive us off the Debt Ceiling cliff. Following in Farage's footsteps, he immediately steps away from the wreckage and moves to Canada.
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Sep 4, 2016 20:19
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AMorePerfctGoonion posted:That said, continued automation will eliminate repetitive unskilled labor but will create new industries programming the devices and maintaining them. Not to go into particulars, but I think the automation of logistics will make truck driving if not redundant much less labour-intensive. We should be trying to anticipate the future by increasing technical education instead of looking backwards to a time that never really existed anyway. The key thing to remember is that there's no guarantee that displacing jobs will create an equal amount of higher-skilled jobs. We're talking about one mechanic supervising robots that displaced a couple dozen people. Sorus posted:CGP Grey did a video on this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU. The short of it is, even programming jobs will be automated. The nature of work will fundamentally shift in our lifetime. Automated programming is still really "out there" as a concept but I feel that it's very similar in some ways to other artificial intelligence problems. There's sort of a classic problem in this field where the ability to "look behind the curtain" and see how something is accomplished ruins the magic. If you took Watson to 1980 and let it play someone in Jeopardy, or took Siri (and its backend) and had it recommend you a restaurant for dinner, they would certainly agree that it's an artificial intelligence, but modern engineers can look at it and just say oh, that's that combination of a Natural Language Processing engine and a data retrieval system. The field in general is more properly called "metaprogramming", programs that operate on programs. One simple example is domain-specific languages, where you use one language that is translated into a second language for execution. This technically includes most source-code based languages, since you write in (say) C and get an assembly-language program out. High-level languages have been around for almost as long as computers in general (they date to the early 1950s IIRC) but if you showed someone a modern optimizing compiler they'd be pretty wowed. In general there's some progress towards being able to hand a program a description of an input data set and a description of what output you want and have it automate finding a program to compute that. It's easy with relatively trivial answers, but as program specs always are the real trick is precisely defining the input and the output. Frankly there's another category of programs which I'm not sure have a name but I'd categorize as "automating the busywork". An awful lot of programming time is spent on stuff like hooking up fields in some view to display an object that you pull from a database, and again, that stuff has been automate-able for a long time, at least since the 90s (demo'd in the "Sun vs Next" video). Ruby on Rails will spit out a basic "scaffold" view of a database table that will display all the fields that exist. There's a lot of similar stuff. So yeah, just like with AI we haven't found HAL and taught him to program yet, but there's certainly a lot of stuff that makes programming a lot faster than it was 50 years ago. Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 20:45 on Sep 4, 2016 |
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Sep 4, 2016 20:21
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vyelkin posted:Like say Hillary wins, the Dems retake the Senate, and they get rid of the filibuster. Sure they can't pass legislation through the House, but they can confirm justices like there's no tomorrow. They proceed to fill the entire backlog of judicial appointments to lower courts with liberals. RBG retires, Breyer retires, Kennedy retires, Thomas retires, Hillary appoints five liberal Supreme Court justices, and liberals enjoy a 7-2 majority on the Supreme Court for the next two decades. Republicans retake the Senate in 2018 but the damage is already done. In what universe would Thomas retire instead of clinging on to the point of staging an elaborate Weekend At Bernies style escapade in the event of his death?
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Sep 4, 2016 20:21
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https://twitter.com/dcexaminer/status/772511505308868608 Uhhhhhh...
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Sep 4, 2016 20:33
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If they get Wisconsin, then yes.
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Sep 4, 2016 20:35
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Lol OK. Maybe she's talking about a moral victory?
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Sep 4, 2016 20:36
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Stultus Maximus posted:If they get Wisconsin, then yes. So no.
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Sep 4, 2016 20:38
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Luigi Thirty posted:White Genocide. This year no white after labor day is getting a new meaning 
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Sep 4, 2016 20:41
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The discussion on automation always gets subsumed by tedious bickering about self-driving cars, which is a shame because there's SO much more to it than that. There's going to be a massive amount of service sector jobs lost to automation as well and that has potentially waaay more of an impact on day to day life in America than the possible future of automated cars
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Sep 4, 2016 20:45
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I mean, sure, if you somehow manage to get several states that are more heavily Democratic, like Wisconsin and Virginia. Which is to say, it is a practical impossibility.
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Sep 4, 2016 20:48
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Paul MaudDib posted:Frankly there's another category of programs which I'm not sure have a name but I'd categorize as "automating the busywork". An awful lot of programming time is spent on stuff like hooking up fields in some view to display an object that you pull from a database, and again, that stuff has been automate-able for a long time, at least since the 90s (demo'd in the "Sun vs Next" video). Ruby on Rails will spit out a basic "scaffold" view of a database table that will display all the fields that exist. There's a lot of similar stuff. gently caress you IBM, gently caress You. 
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Sep 4, 2016 20:50
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Pakled posted:I mean, sure, if you somehow manage to get several states that are more heavily Democratic, like Wisconsin and Virginia. Which is to say, it is a practical impossibility. Maybe they are doing that thing in hearts where you try to get all the losing cards until you win. "Shooting the moon" I think it's called.
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Sep 4, 2016 20:53
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Automation doesn't have to be flawless, it just has to be better than humans.
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Sep 4, 2016 21:01
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Pakled posted:I mean, sure, if you somehow manage to get several states that are more heavily Democratic, like Wisconsin and Virginia. Which is to say, it is a practical impossibility. Don't worry, all he needs to do is get New York, and he'll have votes to spare!
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Sep 4, 2016 21:02
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Florida's going blue. Blue like this copper sulfate solution.
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Sep 4, 2016 21:02
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Paul MaudDib posted:I hear this all the time, practically anytime a local news channel wants to do a "job market: is it really as hard for those lazy poors to find work as they say?" type piece they get some poor would-be captain of industry on to "Benefits" = a retirement plan that will be emptied into a ponzi before you get to it and the luxury of paying for health insurance with your paycheck before you get your paycheck.
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Sep 4, 2016 21:03
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stinkles1112 posted:The discussion on automation always gets subsumed by tedious bickering about self-driving cars, which is a shame because there's SO much more to it than that. There's going to be a massive amount of service sector jobs lost to automation as well and that has potentially waaay more of an impact on day to day life in America than the possible future of automated cars touchscreens wont replace fast food workers. voice recognition agents will. currently fast food restaurants hire employees to man the touchscreens because joe burgerbuyer is slow as gently caress at using a touchscreen
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Sep 4, 2016 21:04
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DemeaninDemon posted:Florida's going blue. Blue like this copper sulfate solution. The deepest blue, the best blue.
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Sep 4, 2016 21:05
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Stultus Maximus posted:If they get Wisconsin, then yes. So what has Walker been up to these days. Have the Kochs ordered him to drag his feet on helping Trump like Ohio's governor?
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Sep 4, 2016 21:06
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stinkles1112 posted:The discussion on automation always gets subsumed by tedious bickering about self-driving cars, which is a shame because there's SO much more to it than that. There's going to be a massive amount of service sector jobs lost to automation as well and that has potentially waaay more of an impact on day to day life in America than the possible future of automated cars The problem with automation is that human beings are the cheapest, most flexible "machine" you're going to get. In any situation where you don't have a simple, well defined process it's usually going to be cheaper to just hire a bunch of people to do it. Driving is just one example of this, several service jobs are similar (which is why no one likes robotic customer service).
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Sep 4, 2016 21:06
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Fast food doesn't profit enough to add a bunch of expensive tech garbage for marginal gains in efficiency.
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Sep 4, 2016 21:07
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Pakled posted:I mean, sure, if you somehow manage to get several states that are more heavily Democratic, like Wisconsin and Virginia. Which is to say, it is a practical impossibility. Wisconsin is narrowing, they've elected Scott Walker* twice, kicked Feingold out in favor of Ron Johnson, and have Republicans in 60% of state legislature seats. Not saying that it's going Republican but it's not a certainty. *the goggle-eyed homunculus hired by Koch Industries to manage their subsidiary formerly known as the state of Wisconsin
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Sep 4, 2016 21:07
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Horking Delight posted:Don't worry, all he needs to do is get New York, and he'll have votes to spare! I've been sincerely wondering if Trump actually believes he'll win NY. Like, I can't imagine how he thinks he'll win but if he's assuming he'll get NY then it makes sense
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Sep 4, 2016 21:11
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E: Beaten way to hard.
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Sep 4, 2016 21:13
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Popular Thug Drink posted:touchscreens wont replace fast food workers. voice recognition agents will. currently fast food restaurants hire employees to man the touchscreens because joe burgerbuyer is slow as gently caress at using a touchscreen No, what will really happen is that you have the Burger King app on your phone and when you walk into a restaraunt you pull it up and tap Favorite Order #3. Nobody is going to do voice recognition and yeah, joe schmoe is terrible at using touchscreens. I love Coke Freestyle machines but hate everyone who uses them.
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Sep 4, 2016 21:13
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stinkles1112 posted:The discussion on automation always gets subsumed by tedious bickering about self-driving cars, which is a shame because there's SO much more to it than that. There's going to be a massive amount of service sector jobs lost to automation as well and that has potentially waaay more of an impact on day to day life in America than the possible future of automated cars for real, the place that I worked at last summer occasionally had me working some odd jobs that involved sitting next to machines that were doing my job better than I was. It was depressing as gently caress
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Sep 4, 2016 21:14
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computer parts posted:The point is that true autonomy is Very Very Hard so what will most likely happen is that some feature will be perfected in a very niche scenario (like the parallel parking assist that already exists) and companies will bill that as "autonomous driving". Doesn't this still end trucking as a working class career? I don't see people getting a robot car to commute anytime soon (for cultural reasons even if the tech was there) but I can definitely see companies replacing their fleets with mostly autonomous cars with someone getting paid barely minimum wage to sit in it and hit the stop button if it's going to smash through pedestrians. Getting the car to know one route very well is exactly what a trucking company wants. Automation doesn't replace people with robots but it undermines any bargaining power workers still have as it turns what might have been a skilled profession into an automation attendant. It's a process that has been going on for a long time.
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Sep 4, 2016 21:17
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FuzzySlippers posted:Doesn't this still end trucking as a working class career? I don't see people getting a robot car to commute anytime soon (for cultural reasons even if the tech was there) but I can definitely see companies replacing their fleets with mostly autonomous cars with someone getting paid barely minimum wage to sit in it and hit the stop button if it's going to smash through pedestrians. Getting the car to know one route very well is exactly what a trucking company wants. Truck routes are 90% "one very simple route" and 10% "a lot of confusion and congestion". The latter is why you'd pay to have someone there just in case. If you want a truck route without that 10%, it's called a train (which aren't completely automated either).
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Sep 4, 2016 21:19
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FuzzySlippers posted:Doesn't this still end trucking as a working class career? Yes, see thread about Shithole South and how this will cause all the tiny towns to die. E: can't beileve Senator Flake isn't going to support Trump 
i am harry fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Sep 4, 2016 |
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Sep 4, 2016 21:19
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Stultus Maximus posted:Wisconsin is narrowing, they've elected Scott Walker* twice, kicked Feingold out in favor of Ron Johnson, and have Republicans in 60% of state legislature seats. Not saying that it's going Republican but it's not a certainty. Remember when a morning-zoo anchor prank called Scott Walker while pretending to be a Koch Brother and they compared notes on how best to bust unions? Good times. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2013/11/i-punkd-scott-walker-100033
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Sep 4, 2016 21:23
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amuayse posted:Fast food doesn't profit enough to add a bunch of expensive tech garbage for marginal gains in efficiency. Yeah this is sort of how production in general works. Go with what gives the best ROI. Your only choices are to deal with or promote glorious revolution.
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Sep 4, 2016 21:26
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