USPOL Sep: Hillary has tuberculosis

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL Sep: Hillary has tuberculosis

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TheBigAristotle: Feb 8, 2007; I'm tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money.
I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok.; Grimey Drawer

Rebochan posted:

Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly

Unfortunately, this election is just like every election for the past 34 years. I guess we're boned.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 03:58

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# ? Jun 2, 2024 06:11

Pakled: Aug 6, 2011; WE ARE SMART

ponzicar posted:

Nevermind that. What does the octopus that predicts superbowl winners say about it?

He died a few years ago. RIP Paulrambe

# ? Sep 24, 2016 03:59

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

BigRed0427 posted:

I can see Someone perfecting the way Trump campaigns in a way that the GOP leadership can control better and fine tune to actually win an election.

I also see the Republicans getting something similar to Super Delegates.

There's not enough time for someone to perfect the White Nationalism campaign that doesn't make women angry and win an election. We are at the end times of the era of white dominance of the electoral process to the point where winning them gets you elected. Every cycle is a few percentage points less white and every election cycle has an extra few points of solid Republican supporters attempting to gentrify the great beyond. 2016 might even have been the last year where it was possible, but Donnie T went and told the broads to make him a sandwich and to try and smile more.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:00

Jazerus: May 24, 2011

quote:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

A fatal flaw here is that there's one additional factor this guy forgot to include in his model.

14. Literally Hitler?: One candidate is literally Hitler.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:02

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

Jazerus posted:

A fatal flaw here is that there's one additional factor this guy forgot to include in his model.

14. Literally Hitler?: One candidate is literally Hitler.

Well, at least 88% Hitler.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:05

Endorph: Jul 22, 2009

hitler would poll better in california based off his vegetarianism

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:06

Alec Bald Snatch: Sep 12, 2012; by exmarx

Endorph posted:

hitler would poll better in california based off his vegetarianism

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFSjpUF_8dw

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:07

Ciaphas: Nov 20, 2005; > BEWARE, COWARD

Jazerus posted:

A fatal flaw here is that there's one additional factor this guy forgot to include in his model.

14. Literally Hitler?: One candidate is literally Hitler.

Nessus posted:

Well, at least 88% Hitler.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:08

corn in the bible: Jun 5, 2004; Oh no oh god it's all true!

Rebochan posted:

Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly

If he predicted Bush's win over Gore then he hasn't predicted 30 years of elections correctly

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:09

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

stone cold posted:

How does he operationalize those variables? Or does he even?

It's a model that's based on the highly scientific and exact whim and caprice of it's creator.

A wonderful mix of mostly "correlation is not causation", at best, hard number factoids and stated situations with varying degrees of possible subjective answer.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:09

Gynocentric Regime: Jun 9, 2010; by Cyrano4747

karlor posted:

Oh, and Kanye has made many noteworthy contributions to pop culture. I, for one, am entertained.

Real talk, Kanye is a terrible person and probably the second most famous delusional narcissist in America right now. That said, he is the most influential hip-hop artist and producer of the last 25 years. Without Kanye there's no one to create the fourth wave of hip-hop. Without Kanye there's no Kendrick or Chance or Vic Mensa or Future.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:10

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

Endorph posted:

hitler would poll better in california based off his vegetarianism

I dunno, Hitler seems like he'd have difficulty winning the Jewish vote

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:10

Endorph: Jul 22, 2009

Nessus posted:

I dunno, Hitler seems like he'd have difficulty winning the Jewish vote

he certainly couldn't do any worse than trump

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:13

BigRed0427: Mar 23, 2007; There's no one I'd rather be than me.

Gyges posted:

There's not enough time for someone to perfect the White Nationalism campaign that doesn't make women angry and win an election. We are at the end times of the era of white dominance of the electoral process to the point where winning them gets you elected. Every cycle is a few percentage points less white and every election cycle has an extra few points of solid Republican supporters attempting to gentrify the great beyond. 2016 might even have been the last year where it was possible, but Donnie T went and told the broads to make him a sandwich and to try and smile more.

Well. Pardon me for putting the Arzy hat on for the moment. VOX put out this video today describing that even with the demographics, the Dems having a better chance nation wide isn't a sure thing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15WhOT_lQiA

Granted this doesn't take into account that if the Republicans wan't a future, then they have to stomp out the racist elements of their party as hard as they can.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:14

On Terra Firma: Feb 12, 2008

Shillary posted:

Without Kanye there's no one to create the fourth wave of hip-hop. Without Kanye there's no Kendrick or Chance or Vic Mensa or Future.

Good.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:15

Shbobdb: Dec 16, 2010; by Reene

Endorph posted:

hitler would poll better in california based off his vegetarianism

R�hm would have helped him secure the influential gay vote.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:16

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

Endorph posted:

he certainly couldn't do any worse than trump

Well Hitler wouldn't have the big brass balls to go tell the Jews "what have you got to lose?"

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:16

vyelkin: Jan 2, 2011

BigRed0427 posted:

Well. Pardon me for putting the Arzy hat on for the moment. VOX put out this video today describing that even with the demographics, the Dems having a better chance nation wide isn't a sure thing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15WhOT_lQiA

Granted this doesn't take into account that if the Republicans wan't a future, then they have to stomp out the racist elements of their party as hard as they can.

The conclusion to this video makes very little sense. He points out that the actual recurring trend is presidents losing midterm elections, using both Republicans and Democrats as examples, and points out that just being in power for 8 to 12 years is what caused Republicans to take control of so many states. But then he concludes by saying that "when the Democrats do lose the White House they'll have very little to fall back on". Well, yeah. The same way the Republicans had very little to fall back on in 2008 when they got demolished and Democrats took a ton of states. They bounced back in two years.

I get the major point: without losing presidential elections it's hard for Democrats to rebuild the party, and while the Democrats have an advantage in the presidential race it can actually disadvantage them in other races, especially midterms. But he makes this out like it's some insurmountable long-term problem and there's no way for the Democrats to resolve it without losing, which I think is overstating the case.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:23

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

"Yes Hillary may be winning, but is she winning by too much? More tonight at 11."

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:29

Bip Roberts: Mar 29, 2005

I heard that napalming the Vietnamese village was actually saving it.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:29

Eifert Posting: Apr 1, 2007; Most of the time he catches it every time.; Grimey Drawer

ponzicar posted:

Nevermind that. What does the octopus that predicts superbowl winners say about it?

Life expectancy of under two years m8.

They actually develop cognitive ability at a faster rate than us.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:31

Islam is the Lite Rock FM: Jul 27, 2007; by exmarx

Four dead in a mall shooting in Burlington Washington. Suspect on loose.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:32

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

DemeaninDemon posted:

Four dead in a mall shooting in Burlington Washington.

Shooter dead or alive?

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:32

seiferguy: Jun 9, 2005; FLAWED
INTUITION; Toilet Rascal

Night10194 posted:

Shooter dead or alive?

Still alive and at large.

Edit: apparently it's a Hispanic male.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:35

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

seiferguy posted:

Still alive and at large.

Edit: apparently it's a Hispanic male.

Well that's different.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:36

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

seiferguy posted:

Still alive and at large.

Edit: apparently it's a Hispanic male.

Weird. Well, I hope they stop him before he hurts anyone else.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:37

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

We sure that someone just can't tell the difference between a Hispanic and a MIddle Easternish man?

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:40

Grouchio: Aug 31, 2014

Expecting an inflammatory comment from Trump's twitter in twelve hours.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:40

a.lo: Sep 12, 2009

seiferguy posted:

Still alive and at large.

Edit: apparently it's a Hispanic male.

More Good News for Trump

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:40

Guy Goodbody: Aug 31, 2016; by Nyc_Tattoo

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

We sure that someone just can't tell the difference between a Hispanic and a MIddle Easternish man?

"We're looking for a male, aged 25-30, some sort of swarthy"

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:40

Sensible Thursday: Jul 28, 2007

lol at testing a thirteen-variable model with seven data points

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:41

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

Eifert Posting posted:

Life expectancy of under two years m8.

They actually develop cognitive ability at a faster rate than us.

We're lucky they have such short lifespans.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:42

WhiskeyJuvenile: Feb 15, 2002; by Nyc_Tattoo

Shillary posted:

Real talk, Kanye is a terrible person and probably the second most famous delusional narcissist in America right now. That said, he is the most influential hip-hop artist and producer of the last 25 years. Without Kanye there's no one to create the fourth wave of hip-hop. Without Kanye there's no Kendrick or Chance or Vic Mensa or Future.

There's been no such thing as hip-hop since Kool Keith retired

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:46

Zwabu: Aug 7, 2006

So the Dems need to flip 4 Senate seats to tie and 5 to be in the majority, right?

Johnson-Feingold: Likely flip based on most polling
Bayh: Possible flip but has gone from "big win" towards "tossup" (4% last I saw) during the period where Clinton's polling has gone into the shitter and the GOP has coalesced around Trump. I also hear something about some controversy about whether he's a Hoosier state resident? What's up there?
Ayotte/Hassen: Was looking good for a flip but Ayotte back with a small lead while Clinton polling went into the shitter. Still a good chance for a pickup if Clinton improves and presses her ground game in the state?
Toomey: Tossup that could be a flip with a good Clinton performance and ground game?
Portman/Strickland: game over, GOP holds
Rubio: - Likely GOP hold? Are there going to be debates or anything?
Burr (NC): close but looks promising for a flip?

And on the defense side, Reid's seat looks a bit shaky?

I'm really feeling that how Clinton does is going to be a huge determinant of how these races go. If she's doing well, like post convention, downticket looks great. When she's falling on her rear end on camera, the downticket suffers as well.

A lot is riding on her debates and performance on the stump in general.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:48

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

vyelkin posted:

The conclusion to this video makes very little sense. He points out that the actual recurring trend is presidents losing midterm elections, using both Republicans and Democrats as examples, and points out that just being in power for 8 to 12 years is what caused Republicans to take control of so many states. But then he concludes by saying that "when the Democrats do lose the White House they'll have very little to fall back on". Well, yeah. The same way the Republicans had very little to fall back on in 2008 when they got demolished and Democrats took a ton of states. They bounced back in two years.

I get the major point: without losing presidential elections it's hard for Democrats to rebuild the party, and while the Democrats have an advantage in the presidential race it can actually disadvantage them in other races, especially midterms. But he makes this out like it's some insurmountable long-term problem and there's no way for the Democrats to resolve it without losing, which I think is overstating the case.

It also assumes the only path toward Presidential nomination is through State level government. Which ignores the fact that since 2000 the Democratic candidate has been someone who rose to prominence through Federal office(all of them Senators in fact, while Al Gore also wore the mantle of VP). It also points to legislative wins by the Republicans in the States that relied heavily on the Judicial branch playing along with the State level Republicans. By the end of Hillary's term the Judiciary will be far more liberal and far more likely to kick Republican legislative initiatives square in the legal nuts.

Plus there's the assumption that continued failure by the Republicans to win the Presidency will have no effect on their down ballot. If they only have 8 out of 24/32 years in power that's gonna force them to do some real soul searching. A similar situation is what lead to Clinton and the rise of triangulation in the 90s after all. Which has the side benefit of loving with the assumption that the mega liberal Democrats are too out of touch with the minor liberal country, so of course the minor liberal country will go major conservative instead of the out of power major conservative party tacking left.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:53

DarkstarIV: Apr 6, 2010; OFFICIAL RACIST

Zwabu posted:

Bayh: Possible flip but has gone from "big win" towards "tossup" (4% last I saw) during the period where Clinton's polling has gone into the shitter and the GOP has coalesced around Trump. I also hear something about some controversy about whether he's a Hoosier state resident? What's up there?

Bayh will be fine. He's currently smashing Young, according to 538. He used to be a major political player in Indiana, while Todd Young has virtually no political clout in Indiana. As for the residency thing, he has a house in Washington DC.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:57

Eifert Posting: Apr 1, 2007; Most of the time he catches it every time.; Grimey Drawer

Nessus posted:

We're lucky they have such short lifespans.

My dream Discovery to read about before I die is somehow interpreting or analyzing animal Consciousness at a much higher level than we already do. Imagine how much difference the intelligence of a human toddler to small child would be in a creature that's been completely designed from birth to be antisocial and isolated. It has to be as bizarre and different as any science fiction alien.

# ? Sep 24, 2016 04:58

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

Eifert Posting posted:

My dream Discovery to read about before I die is somehow interpreting or analyzing animal Consciousness at a much higher level than we already do. Imagine how much difference the intelligence of a human toddler to small child would be in a creature that's been completely designed from birth to be antisocial and isolated. It has to be as bizarre and different as any science fiction alien.

The neo-octopoi are fine, but do you want one marrying your daughtrix?

# ? Sep 24, 2016 05:00

iospace: Jan 19, 2038

https://twitter.com/colvinj/status/779528714455490560

# ? Sep 24, 2016 05:01

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# ? Jun 2, 2024 06:11

Endorph: Jul 22, 2009

Eifert Posting posted:

Imagine how much difference the intelligence of a human toddler to small child would be in a creature that's been completely designed from birth to be antisocial and isolated.

you could just study this year's republican nominees

# ? Sep 24, 2016 05:01

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL Sep: Hillary has tuberculosis

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