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computer parts posted:Probably not, based on how the state voted in the past. You're the one discounting the polls then. (Or, more logically, it's a fairly lovely poll that doesn't mean much.) You can't go "Look at the polls" and then write off her losing a state that she should be (and probably is) winning.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:00
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ImpAtom posted:You're the one discounting the polls then. Yes, I let you set the terms of the argument and you said the polls shouldn't be trusted.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:01
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The shooter in the mall in Houston was a lawyer who was wearing an antique Nazi uniform complete with swastikas
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Sep 26, 2016 21:02
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I wonder what caused that huge loving jump in PEC?
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Sep 26, 2016 21:01
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vyelkin posted:Reminder that Reuters/Ipsos is bad even when it shows good results. It is not a reliable poll at the state level no matter what the result is. Anything to convince yourself that Legal Weed Land going Trump is a mistake
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Sep 26, 2016 21:02
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computer parts posted:Yes, I let you set the terms of the argument and you said the polls shouldn't be trusted. Okay? So... are you trying to say something or just making meaningless comments?
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Sep 26, 2016 21:02
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I thought that the Reuters poll was somewhat reasonable in aggregate, but completely worthless at the state level as it just segments out respondents by state rather than specifically polling said states.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:04
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ImpAtom posted:Okay? So... are you trying to say something or just making meaningless comments? I'm saying it doesn't matter if we take the polls as valid or not, you're still wrong.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:03
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Night10194 posted:Finding out what the hell was with all the modelers and polls at the end of this election is going to be fun. Don't hold your breath. They'll never publish their LVMs.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:04
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there's a new poll with Clinton up 3 in Ohio. Chaos reigns https://www.scribd.com/document/325387759/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Poll-Ohio-Statewide
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Sep 26, 2016 21:04
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ImpAtom posted:Clinton's support is eroding and while she is still in the lead her foundation has proven to be a lot shakier than Trump's which is overall lower but also overall more solid. This is not good for Hillary Clinton and not a position anyone wants to be in. I think Hillary has to show two things tonight: - That shes not dying (which is actually pretty difficult as even a slight cough will insta-lose her here) - That she projects enough strength to whip up her base Trump saying something dumb is meaningless to his base (because nothing matters to them other than white supremacy) but she can take that and play it into something that rallies the Dems. Actually, she HAS to take that chance if she is given it. Unfortunately I think the Don is actually pretty good at debates (and can play the media like a fiddle), Ailes is coaching him, and the media is flat out refusing to do their jobs at this point so I think Abuela has an uphill battle tonight.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:03
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computer parts posted:I'm saying it doesn't matter if we take the polls as valid or not, you're still wrong. So which part are you arguing? That Hillary Clinton has solid support or that Donald Trump doesn't?
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Sep 26, 2016 21:03
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The Reuters/Ipsos polls included about 400 voters for most states, that translates to a five percent sampling error even if you do everything right.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:04
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Luigi Thirty posted:The shooter in the mall in Houston was a lawyer who was wearing an antique Nazi uniform complete with swastikas Well this was clearly a workplace issue and has no relationship to terrorism.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:04
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This time we call Trump a big meanie, THIS TIME, it's going to move the needle.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:05
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Feldegast42 posted:I think Abuela has an uphill battle tonight. She's boned. Bill "ardnassaC" Kristol has spoken, and thus it shall be
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Sep 26, 2016 21:06
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What's everyone doing tonight to keep their minds off the debates?
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Sep 26, 2016 21:07
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ImpAtom posted:So which part are you arguing? That Hillary Clinton has solid support or that Donald Trump doesn't? Hillary Clinton bills herself as the continuation of the Obama legacy. There is no evidence right now that the groups that voted for Obama would change their votes. Thus, it is very safe to conclude that Hillary will win.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:07
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Trabisnikof posted:Well this was clearly a workplace issue and has no relationship to terrorism. We already beat the Nazis like hella long ago, dude!
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Sep 26, 2016 21:07
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computer parts posted:What if it is enough? That's not a string of polls.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:09
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Deified Data posted:What's everyone doing tonight to keep their minds off the debates? Reminding myself over and over again that Trump is the inevitable winner of the 2016 presidential race
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Sep 26, 2016 21:11
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Deified Data posted:What's everyone doing tonight to keep their minds off the debates? Scheduled a phone call with a friend to catch up, then reading a history book. Might get a little dinner by myself somewhere without a television.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:10
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Deified Data posted:What's everyone doing tonight to keep their minds off the debates? I'm gonna watch the debates
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Sep 26, 2016 21:11
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The reason things like "her base is eroding" don't make any sense is: how on god's loving goddamn earth are there people who said they would vote for her at one point and then were swayed by Donald Trump? We know general elections are about driving out the base, so what gutless fuckheads are slowly deciding over the course of these polls not to vote? And if it's not dems dropping out of a likely voter model then what accounts for her eroding numbers? It just doesn't make sense, given Trump as her opponent computer parts posted:Hillary Clinton bills herself as the continuation of the Obama legacy. There is no evidence right now that the groups that voted for Obama would change their votes. This is what I keep thinking too. Waffles Inc. fucked around with this message at 21:13 on Sep 26, 2016 |
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Sep 26, 2016 21:11
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Deified Data posted:What's everyone doing tonight to keep their minds off the debates?  Waffles Inc. posted:The reason things like "her base is eroding" don't make any sense is: how on god's loving goddamn earth are there people who said they would vote for her at one point and then were swayed by Donald Trump? I just had a conversation with a guy at work who is voting for Johnson to try and force a 269-269 stalemate and throw it to the House so that they vote in Johnson. I thought about explaining how throwing out 95% of the votes would probably cause riots and be a constitutional crisis. Instead I just chuckled and said "That would certainly be interesting".
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Sep 26, 2016 21:12
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The company is buying us all a nice dinner, then video games.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:12
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Deified Data posted:What's everyone doing tonight to keep their minds off the debates? sitting in a parked car, screaming
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Sep 26, 2016 21:13
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Waffles Inc. posted:The reason things like "her base is eroding" don't make any sense is: how on god's loving goddamn earth are there people who said they would vote for her at one point and then were swayed by Donald Trump? middle-aged white people wanting a Strong Leader and letting racism cloud their judgment
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Sep 26, 2016 21:13
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Luigi Thirty posted:The shooter in the mall in Houston was a lawyer who was wearing an antique Nazi uniform complete with swastikas
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Sep 26, 2016 21:12
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Deified Data posted:What's everyone doing tonight to keep their minds off the debates? Wishing my medication didn't prohibit alcohol.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:12
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Deified Data posted:What's everyone doing tonight to keep their minds off the debates? gently caress all because FFXIV's on maintenance until tomorrow morning and I'm otherwise bored This won't end well for me
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Sep 26, 2016 21:14
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Deified Data posted:What's everyone doing tonight to keep their minds off the debates? 
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Sep 26, 2016 21:13
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So I've seen nothing on the news in the last week, are we still on a crash course to shutting down the government again I genuinely don't think my heart can take the stress of eating another furlough, however brief
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Sep 26, 2016 21:14
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People are having a hard time accepting that we are so polarized as a nation that whoever ran for president for either party, barring some insane twist or turn of events, the result would be 2-5% popular vote victory for the Democrats. Despite how ridiculousness Trump is, the country is what the country is and people choose sides.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:14
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Obama's final picture in the WH should be him toking up.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:14
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703 posted:First debate related comment I've seen posted to Facebook today is "What's the over/under on Hillary passing out during the live debate?" Maybe Martin can be made Secretary of the new Department of Swole.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:14
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Sorry to interrupt the circular firing squad but I think Hillary is a cool person when she doesn't have to be a stonewoman politician. Does anyone know if Hillary drinks beer? Cuz I'd have a beer with Hillary 
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Sep 26, 2016 21:15
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XyrlocShammypants posted:People are having a hard time accepting that we are so polarized as a nation that whoever ran for president for either party, barring some insane twist or turn of events, the result would be 2-5% popular vote victory for the Democrats. Despite how ridiculousness Trump is, the country is what the country is and people choose sides. ding ding ding!
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Sep 26, 2016 21:15
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computer parts posted:Hillary Clinton bills herself as the continuation of the Obama legacy. There is no evidence right now that the groups that voted for Obama would change their votes. The flaw there is that you're assuming people believe her and she's not matching Obama's numbers in every demographic (if you want to believe polls) and if you don't it's still a pretty big assumption that Hillary Clinton will have as much excitement and turnout as the incredibly charismatic first black President She is doing better than Obama in some places but if that is enough to outpace an energized and scared white male demographic is a big if. She's not a SURE DOOMED but the utter confidence that there is no way she can possibly lose is silly.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:15
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XyrlocShammypants posted:People are having a hard time accepting that we are so polarized as a nation that whoever ran for president for either party, barring some insane twist or turn of events, the result would be 2-5% popular vote victory for the Democrats. Despite how ridiculousness Trump is, the country is what the country is and people choose sides. Yeah, this is about how I see things eventually shaking out, too.
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Sep 26, 2016 21:16
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