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CronoGamer
May 15, 2004

why did this happen

Fojar38 posted:

Meh, it'll happen with or without the Philippines. Duterte is acting like a psycho but pretty much ever major non-Chinese power in the region is still a close ally of the US.

If they have to the US will make do without bases in the Philippines, it would just be more annoying.

Also just see how long it takes for China to do something stupid and drive Duterte back to the US (this is a question of when, not if)
I would say that you are as much an optimist as that other guy is a pessimist. "Close ally" ( if we're ignoring the requirements to be actual "allies") on a level with what the U.S. had under Aquino would apply to... Singapore and Australia, basically. It may be at unparalleled levels with Vietnam and have robust cooperation (and permission to park P-8s) with Malaysia but neither are on a level with the buy-in the U.S. had from Manila.

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get that OUT of my face
Feb 10, 2007

gradenko_2000 posted:

Again. AGAIN with delivering an anti-US tirade in the middle of a completely unrelated event.

Duterte to US: Do not treat PHL like a doormat


Maybe he's reading this thread guys :shobon:
CIA covert ops are a notion mocked by tinpot dictators and wannabe tinpot dictators since it was created. But in the off chance that he is reading it, let it be known that I was joking.

Pilsner posted:

Can anyone native to Phili read between the lines and imagine that Duterte, aside from battling with words and sucking up to China, might end up turning Phili in a communist direction, like it happened disastrously in Veneluela?
Considering how Duterte's presidential campaign was almost entirely bankrolled by a small group of very wealthy people, I'd say the chances of that happening are slim to none.

chird
Sep 26, 2004

In the new battle for hearts and minds, the US Embassy in Philippines has released a video highlighting their disaster relief efforts.

https://www.facebook.com/manila.usembassy/videos/10154662635359623/

I'm anxious to see how my Filipino relatives in the U.S are now taking this, since they were loud armband-wearing Duterte supporters ("Filipinos back home need discipline, unlike us cultured ex-pat gun-loving ultra-conservative nutjob pinoys").

Also, my father- and mother-in-law are mega Duterte fans, spouting all the usual memes ("just collateral damage, Marcos times = best times") but were at the U.S Embassy on Tuesday to politely request for their visas to vacation there. They actually had to push their way through a protest to get in. Some double-think going on here. Not to mention Duterte is planning to remove their senior citizen VAT discount which they loving love, and everything they buy when on their vacation will be more expensive thanks to Duterte's tanking of the currency.

webmeister
Jan 31, 2007

The answer is, mate, because I want to do you slowly. There has to be a bit of sport in this for all of us. In the psychological battle stakes, we are stripped down and ready to go. I want to see those ashen-faced performances; I want more of them. I want to be encouraged. I want to see you squirm.
I've been staying in Boracay the last few days and this newspaper made me laugh:



The previous day's front page (didn't manage to get a photo) was a picture of Duterte giving a speech, with lens flare from a light overhead giving him a halo. Coming from a country where politicians are universally despised and mocked, this is really strange to see.

Deceitful Penguin
Feb 16, 2011

Pilsner posted:

Christ. I've had an attachment to Philippines for the past few years, I have a girlfriend there going on 1½ years, visited about 5 times, and one of my good friends is slowly planning a life there, building a house and retiring there in the near future. I really feel with all the kind Filipinos, that just barely manage to scrape by in the rather harsh work climate as bottom-rank workers, as mothers, as farmers, as fishermen and the like, and wish them prosperity in the future.

Can anyone native to Phili read between the lines and imagine that Duterte, aside from battling with words and sucking up to China, might end up turning Phili in a communist direction, like it happened disastrously in Veneluela? Any country that has ever attemped this has failed miserably, when the country attempts to shut itself in, confiscate foreign investments and companies, and act like they're the new king of the hill communism state, fueled temporarily by populist propaganda. Phili is vastly populated by relatively poor people, that dare I say will be easily lured by this sort of propaganda. My impression of the ruling system in Phili is that nepotism is ripe and good ol' boys with lots of money run the show, so I don't really know how it would fly if Duterte did a Hugo Chavez, claiming to be a representative of the common man, fighting against the wealthy elite. I don't think the public would find it to be strange, but rather, would he lack support in the government? Unless he fires up a military coup, that is...
Hhhrrrmm yes right-wing american man, it is extremely likely that the philipines will be overcome by the evils of communism

It's not as if there's an ongoing communist insurgency or anything like that in the country, or some kind of history with communism. Tell us more about the horrors of "Veneluela", by all means.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

CronoGamer posted:

His approval ratings (I think it was 76%?) are basically on par with every other new president since Marcos. I wouldn't read a whole ton into that number.
This is correct. Every post-Martial Law President has had approval ratings of about the same level in their first three months, except for Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's second term, because she wasn't supposed to have one.

Pilsner posted:

Christ. I've had an attachment to Philippines for the past few years, I have a girlfriend there going on 1½ years, visited about 5 times, and one of my good friends is slowly planning a life there, building a house and retiring there in the near future. I really feel with all the kind Filipinos, that just barely manage to scrape by in the rather harsh work climate as bottom-rank workers, as mothers, as farmers, as fishermen and the like, and wish them prosperity in the future.

Can anyone native to Phili read between the lines and imagine that Duterte, aside from battling with words and sucking up to China, might end up turning Phili in a communist direction, like it happened disastrously in Veneluela? Any country that has ever attemped this has failed miserably, when the country attempts to shut itself in, confiscate foreign investments and companies, and act like they're the new king of the hill communism state, fueled temporarily by populist propaganda. Phili is vastly populated by relatively poor people, that dare I say will be easily lured by this sort of propaganda.
I don't think Duterte is going to go tinpot commie. Toppling the government in favor of The People's Republic of whatever is a crossing-the-Rubicon moment, and Duterte himself hasn't shown any leftist policies besides "I don't automatically shoot-to-kill communist insurgents, preferring to pay them off instead to not cause trouble in Davao because that's easier". He's made no moves towards wanting to nationalize businesses/industries.

Rather, I think that if the Duterte administration has its way, it's going to be a slash-and-burn Paul Ryan-esque takeover of free-market corporate interests. Their economic plan involves removing the estate tax, reducing progressive income taxation but increasing value-added-tax (effectively a tax cut on the rich), and lowering the corporate tax rates directly.

And then if the plan for Philippine Federalism ever pushes through (personally I think it's a little pie-in-the-sky, but hey, Brexit happened), that's basically free rein for local governors/oligarchs to set up their own little little feudal fiefdoms.

Pilsner posted:

My impression of the ruling system in Phili is that nepotism is ripe and good ol' boys with lots of money run the show, so I don't really know how it would fly if Duterte did a Hugo Chavez, claiming to be a representative of the common man, fighting against the wealthy elite. I don't think the public would find it to be strange, but rather, would he lack support in the government? Unless he fires up a military coup, that is...
That's actually the impression that most people have of him right now. He practically introduced to word "oligarchs" to the Filipino layman over the course of his Presidential campaign.

People bought into the whole "it's a grassroots movement", and "he had no political machinery whatsoever", and "he's just doing this for love of the people", and "he's actually fighting the elites, who are the only ones constantly criticizing his presidency and trying to tear it down", and "the elites are paying off the social media commentariat and the local and foreign media to give him bad coverage" bullet points of his candidacy and subsequent administration.

The whole "savior of the Philippine" glamour surrounding him comes from the successful marketing campaign to portray him as something like a podunk mayor that had to be dragged into a presidential campaign and that's beholden to no special interests because he's not a traditional politician. Which is of course all untrue, but there you go.

A Festivus Miracle
Dec 19, 2012

I have come to discourse on the profound inequities of the American political system.

gradenko_2000 posted:

That's actually the impression that most people have of him right now. He practically introduced to word "oligarchs" to the Filipino layman over the course of his Presidential campaign.

People bought into the whole "it's a grassroots movement", and "he had no political machinery whatsoever", and "he's just doing this for love of the people", and "he's actually fighting the elites, who are the only ones constantly criticizing his presidency and trying to tear it down", and "the elites are paying off the social media commentariat and the local and foreign media to give him bad coverage" bullet points of his candidacy and subsequent administration.

The whole "savior of the Philippine" glamour surrounding him comes from the successful marketing campaign to portray him as something like a podunk mayor that had to be dragged into a presidential campaign and that's beholden to no special interests because he's not a traditional politician. Which is of course all untrue, but there you go.

I'm loving the analogues to Trump here. "He's not a politician" despite being intimately connected to the political machinery.

I wonder how Duterte will paint his surrendering of the Spratlys to China to intensely nationalistic Filipinos. I can't wait to see the marketing scheme he'll have to run in the press and internationally to convince the world that China, a nation that has literally had a foreign policy of "gently caress you pay me or die" since the very first days of the Emperors, is actually a good guy.

Fojar38
Sep 2, 2011


Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia


also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->
I readily believe that Duterte is popular domestic-policy wise (as vile as that policy is) but find it much harder to believe that his foreign policy conduct is at all popular. I thought that Filipinos were generally fond of the US and of the treaty. Certainly moreso than China.

Am I wrong or is it one of those "His foreign policy sucks but the drug stuff is more important to the average voter" things?

chird
Sep 26, 2004

It's perhaps worth noting that Doots said back in April he had little interest in the Spratleys:

quote:

Duterte said, if China will ''build me a train around Mindanao, build me train from Manila to Bicol... build me a train [going to] Batangas, for the six years that I'll be president, I'll shut up."

Duterte's position on the matter, perhaps the biggest foreign policy controversy facing the presidential bets in the May 9 elections, contradicts the position taken by the Aquino administration.

Having lived in both China and the Philippines for the best part of the last decade, I can say that the Chinese people give much more of a poo poo about the islands than the Filipinos do. The Chinese government have frequently made it into THE issue to detract from internal problems and create a foreign boogie-man. The country was alight with anti-Japanese rallies and riots just a few years ago, and sentiment has not changed.

Contrast this to Duterte essentially saying he'd do nothing about the territory in exchange for a pet project railway and no-one in the Philippines batting an eyelid, and you can see that the whole situation is perfectly playing into China's hands. It was around that time I started to wonder if his campaign, which felt significantly better funded than his competitors' campaigns, was being secretly funded by China. He has been hard on everything apart from China, on which issue he has been extremely soft. However, I'm starting to think this to be a little tinfoil hat, especially now the revelations of the Marcos funding are coming out.

If China wasn't involved, Duterte is an incredible gift to them, and they're playing it perfectly. The relaxation of banana imports will allow Duterte and his supporters a little bit of carrot to keep on doing all the work for them.

sincx
Jul 13, 2012

furiously masturbating to anime titties

gradenko_2000 posted:

I bring this up because let's go back to this round-up of campaign contributions to Duterte's campaign:


This is relevant because of the business that the Floirendo family is involved in: Floirendo: I gave P75M to Duterte campaign out of brotherly love


Antonio Floirendo Sr., 'banana king' and Mindanao frontiersman, dies at 96


And yes, this is a little "follow the money" conspiratorial-ish, but I found the connection interesting.

Not the first and probably not the last time bananas have caused international conflicts.

edit: I want to make it clear--I'm not endorsing Duterte nor trying to defend China's opportunism by equating it with non-relevant, long-past US actions. My only point is that bananas, uniquely among fruits, seem to be capable of creating international problems.

sincx fucked around with this message at 08:37 on Oct 8, 2016

toasterwarrior
Nov 11, 2011
Ironically, Senator Trillanes, one of Duterte's most vocal opponents outside of De Lima, also had his own controversy re: China during Aquino's term when he was accused of engaging in backdoor negotiations with the Chinese.

Argue
Sep 29, 2005

I represent the Philippines
I wish Trillanes wasn't the most vocal opposition to Duterte, he's pretty terrible too. In the past, he'd staged a very half hearted attempt at a coup. This somehow made him popular enough to get elected to Congress, and some time after that, he did a walk out followed by yet another half hearted coup. So there's actually precedent for Filipinos electing visibly bad people.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

chird posted:

Contrast this to Duterte essentially saying he'd do nothing about the territory in exchange for a pet project railway and no-one in the Philippines batting an eyelid, and you can see that the whole situation is perfectly playing into China's hands. It was around that time I started to wonder if his campaign, which felt significantly better funded than his competitors' campaigns, was being secretly funded by China. He has been hard on everything apart from China, on which issue he has been extremely soft. However, I'm starting to think this to be a little tinfoil hat, especially now the revelations of the Marcos funding are coming out.

If China wasn't involved, Duterte is an incredible gift to them, and they're playing it perfectly. The relaxation of banana imports will allow Duterte and his supporters a little bit of carrot to keep on doing all the work for them.

There actually is a China connection with Duterte, by his own admission:

Jan 8 2016: Duterte: Not spending my own money for TV ads

quote:

CEBU CITY, Philippines – Presidential aspirant Rodrigo Duterte denied spending his own money for television advertising on Thursday, January 7, during a press briefing in Cebu City.

His statement comes days after a Nielsen report claiming he spent P115 million on such ads. He was 4th in the list of top spenders. Vice President Jejomar Binay was number one on the list.

“Somebody in the Chinese community gave the money to help me with those ads,” he said.

Mar 11 2016: Duterte says unknown donor paid for his pre-campaign ads

quote:

MANILA, Philippines — Davao City Mayor and presidential hopeful Rodrigo Duterte admitted Thursday that an anonymous Chinese donor had helped pay for his initial political ads that were aired before the start of the official campaign period.

Duterte said the ads were directly placed with the network stations and that he did not know who the donor was. This was confirmed by Duterte's spokesman Peter Laviña.

"[There was some Chinese person that paid for my initial ads. They didn't want to reveal who they were,]" he said.

"Somebody offered. [I didn't strike a deal with any donors. I didn't care, because when the time comes to take account of everything, I don't know anything.] You better look for the guy who made the contract," he added.

The mayor refused to file his certificate for candidacy on the October deadline last year set by the Commission on Elections and insisted he would not run for president even as advertisements introducing him to the public were being aired and posted. He eventually replaced former Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan presidential bet Martin Diño.

On Thursday, Duterte also vowed to withdraw from the presidential race if it would be proven that he had accepted campaign donations from illegal and immoral sources and from business groups that have contracts with government.

Speaking to reporters just before addressing a general assembly of ship manning groups at the Diamond Hotel in Manila, Duterte said many have been offering to help fund his campaign but he had refused the offers simply because the donors would not identify themselves.

"I will not accept donations from people or corporations that are doing business with government," he said.

As for a report made by the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism saying that Duterte had spent over P146 million for his ads, which is beyond his total net worth of over P22 million, the Davao Mayor questioned the manner the amount was computed.

"How was the computation done?" he asked.

Meanwhile, Duterte said he would be coming out with a series of political advertisements as election day draws near. This time, the mayor said he would be the one paying for the advertisements.

"[I will release something. These ones I will spend my own money own. A few spots once the election gets closer,]" he said.

There's also this blog post that tries to deconstruct some of the Chinese ties, though I will refrain from directly quoting it here and leave it up to your discretion to look into it more closely, as this is largely internet detectivery and starting to go down the tin-foil rabbit hole.

CronoGamer
May 15, 2004

why did this happen

Fojar38 posted:

I readily believe that Duterte is popular domestic-policy wise (as vile as that policy is) but find it much harder to believe that his foreign policy conduct is at all popular. I thought that Filipinos were generally fond of the US and of the treaty. Certainly moreso than China.

Am I wrong or is it one of those "His foreign policy sucks but the drug stuff is more important to the average voter" things?

You're on the money here. But people dont take to the streets over foreign policy, so his overall support won't suffer as much as it would for unpopular domestic moves.

Wizchine
Sep 17, 2007

Television is the retina
of the mind's eye.
Someone needs to let Teddy Locsin Jr. know about this, and prepare for some cognitive dissonance:

Adolf HItler was the 'Fuhrer' of drugs

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

chird posted:

It's perhaps worth noting that Doots said back in April he had little interest in the Spratleys:


Having lived in both China and the Philippines for the best part of the last decade, I can say that the Chinese people give much more of a poo poo about the islands than the Filipinos do. The Chinese government have frequently made it into THE issue to detract from internal problems and create a foreign boogie-man. The country was alight with anti-Japanese rallies and riots just a few years ago, and sentiment has not changed.

Contrast this to Duterte essentially saying he'd do nothing about the territory in exchange for a pet project railway and no-one in the Philippines batting an eyelid, and you can see that the whole situation is perfectly playing into China's hands. It was around that time I started to wonder if his campaign, which felt significantly better funded than his competitors' campaigns, was being secretly funded by China. He has been hard on everything apart from China, on which issue he has been extremely soft. However, I'm starting to think this to be a little tinfoil hat, especially now the revelations of the Marcos funding are coming out.

If China wasn't involved, Duterte is an incredible gift to them, and they're playing it perfectly. The relaxation of banana imports will allow Duterte and his supporters a little bit of carrot to keep on doing all the work for them.

Well which do you think is the more valuable the the Phillipines? A few guano covered rocks or a sleek modern train? If China is willing to offer it it seems like a reasonable deal to me...

RandomPauI
Nov 24, 2006


Grimey Drawer
Will China have to follow through with it if the US is unilaterally booted out?

Fojar38
Sep 2, 2011


Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia


also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

Squalid posted:

Well which do you think is the more valuable the the Phillipines? A few guano covered rocks or a sleek modern train? If China is willing to offer it it seems like a reasonable deal to me...

It's China. They'll get a train that looks sleek and modern but is actually inferior to Japanese or European models and it will be built on a railroad to nowhere.

GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001

Fojar38 posted:

It's China. They'll get a train that looks sleek and modern but is actually inferior to Japanese or European models and it will be built on a railroad to nowhere.

You base this statement off of what? Whatever else maybe be wrong with China the HSR system is very nice and of great quality (lol at least the trains run on time).

Deep State of Mind
Jul 30, 2006

"It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."
Fun Shoe

GlassEye-Boy posted:

You base this statement off of what? Whatever else maybe be wrong with China the HSR system is very nice and of great quality (lol at least the trains run on time).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whDOKl1AuwM&t=95s

Xelkelvos
Dec 19, 2012

GlassEye-Boy posted:

You base this statement off of what? Whatever else maybe be wrong with China the HSR system is very nice and of great quality (lol at least the trains run on time).

Chinese engineering is fast and relatively good. They just cut corners when it comes to safety or QC.

GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001

Yes, one accident. Since then there has been no major incident. Can't say the same for European or US train operators where accidents seem to happen every month.

With their operating record and ridership the HSR system in China is incredibly successful.

GlassEye-Boy fucked around with this message at 14:18 on Oct 9, 2016

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

I went and skimmed wiki's list of train accidents since 2010; there's tons of US/EU coal train derailments etc. There arn't very many Chinese ones listed at all. In fact, unbelievably few; it leads me to believe that non-fatality accidents simply arn't reported at all by the Chinese, or at least not in any source tracked by English-speakers.

Pentecoastal Elites
Feb 27, 2007

TheDeadlyShoe posted:

I went and skimmed wiki's list of train accidents since 2010; there's tons of US/EU coal train derailments etc. There arn't very many Chinese ones listed at all. In fact, unbelievably few; it leads me to believe that non-fatality accidents simply arn't reported at all by the Chinese, or at least not in any source tracked by English-speakers.

Actually, even high-fatality incidents are massively underreported, un-reported, or covered up by the Chinese government (even when there's like, video evidence). Like hell they're going to allow someone to report on train derailments.

CronoGamer
May 15, 2004

why did this happen

GlassEye-Boy posted:

Yes, one accident. Since then there has been no major incident. Can't say the same for European or US train operators where accidents seem to happen every month.

With their operating record and ridership the HSR system in China is incredibly successful.

Can't speak for EU but most of the US ones are decades old and have had insufficient maintenance for a long time. New-built trains from China shouldn't be compared to the old ones...

rscott
Dec 10, 2009

Xelkelvos posted:

Chinese engineering is fast and relatively good. They just cut corners when it comes to safety or QC.

idk man, we're working on some poo poo for the C919 and their engineers can't seem to do simple poo poo like properly dimension a drawing or proper revision control

Xelkelvos
Dec 19, 2012

rscott posted:

idk man, we're working on some poo poo for the C919 and their engineers can't seem to do simple poo poo like properly dimension a drawing or proper revision control

The Chinese can't QC their engineers too

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011

Eej posted:

Did anyone tell Duterte that comparing himself to Hitler, greatest slaughterer of Russians in history, when attempting to curry favour with Russia is probably not that great of an idea yet?

Goon project to let him know? I'll make the website. Together we can let this man know what a ghastly faux pas he's made that neither his target audience nor the Russian foreign ministry will give a poo poo about.

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon
loving Pravda said Hitler was cool and good up until the war

TROIKA CURES GREEK
Jun 30, 2015

by R. Guyovich

GlassEye-Boy posted:

Yes, one accident. Since then there has been no major incident. Can't say the same for European or US train operators where accidents seem to happen every month.

With their operating record and ridership the HSR system in China is incredibly successful.

Someone actually trusting chinese statistics that's utterly precious.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy


I'm out of town this week, so I haven't been able to post as much, but that's the recently breaking news.

Argue
Sep 29, 2005

I represent the Philippines

Kurtofan posted:

loving Pravda said Hitler was cool and good up until the war

Not new news, but did we already mention that we're getting our own Pravda? (title translates to: "From the masses, for the masses") I like to call it "Mula sa masa, Pravda sa masa" but the people who hear it either don't understand Tagalog or don't understand the reference.

webmeister
Jan 31, 2007

The answer is, mate, because I want to do you slowly. There has to be a bit of sport in this for all of us. In the psychological battle stakes, we are stripped down and ready to go. I want to see those ashen-faced performances; I want more of them. I want to be encouraged. I want to see you squirm.
Why is he nicknamed D30? Is it just because his name sounds a bit like D-thirty, or is there something more to it?.

Argue
Sep 29, 2005

I represent the Philippines
I don't know that we're unique in this but Filipinos LOVE shortening names. Duterte? Du30. Constitutional Convention? Con-con. Constitutional Assembly? Con-rear end. Charter Change? Cha-cha. Hello? 30WwzZ.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

webmeister posted:

Why is he nicknamed D30? Is it just because his name sounds a bit like D-thirty, or is there something more to it?.

That's it, no deeper meaning.

The Saddest Rhino
Apr 29, 2009

Put it all together.
Solve the world.
One conversation at a time.



lol at duterte's fake news site http://dw-tv3.com/about/ "we specialise in just breaking news and spreading rumours"

toasterwarrior
Nov 11, 2011
"We're totally a legit media outlet. Yes, all our articles involve the President doing great things and terrible vengeance falling upon his enemies."

get that OUT of my face
Feb 10, 2007

Argue posted:

Constitutional Assembly? Con-rear end.
Well they got that one right :v:

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
I'm amazed Duterte didn't try make himself a lovely action movie star. He's totally the type to do it

like Weng Weng in a Turkish John Wick

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Argue
Sep 29, 2005

I represent the Philippines

Alan Smithee posted:

I'm amazed Duterte didn't try make himself a lovely action movie star. He's totally the type to do it

like Weng Weng in a Turkish John Wick

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