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Negrostrike posted:I feel you. All this stuff happening in Venezuela scares the poo poo out of me because I can vividly see it happening here in Brazil as well, and possibly in the near future. Venezuela used to have so much better living conditions than where I live and everything there went to poo poo in a couple of years. It's just terrifying. I don't really follow Brazilian politics, so I can't speak as to the situation there, but I can assure you Venezuela didn't just go to poo poo in a couple of years. The current situation is the cause of political, economic, and social degradation being allowed to fester for almost two decades, but yes, the worst of it has come around during the past couple of years.
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Oct 27, 2016 03:08
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Yeah when things were kinda good between 2004-2009 or so it was only an illusion thanks to the high price of oil but pretty much all the economists knew it was a bubble.
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Oct 27, 2016 03:25
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When are you getting out hefe?
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Oct 27, 2016 03:37
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El Hefe posted:Yeah when things were kinda good between 2004-2009 or so it was only an illusion thanks to the high price of oil but pretty much all the economists knew it was a bubble. Yep. There was simply enough money to keep things running despite the ballooning corruption, graft, and mismanagement.
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Oct 27, 2016 04:03
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Polidoro posted:When are you getting out hefe? think I'm gonna wait until the first bomb drops
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Oct 27, 2016 04:40
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Maduro is obviously very unpopular now, but does that extend to Chavez in the eyes of most of the country, or is he still a popular figure who evades blame by virtue of dying before it got terrible?
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Oct 27, 2016 05:57
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Sinteres posted:Maduro is obviously very unpopular now, but does that extend to Chavez in the eyes of most of the country, or is he still a popular figure who evades blame by virtue of dying before it got terrible? Chavez is very much still hailed as a prophet and a leader worldwide. I've said it before but I'm sure he handpicked Maduro because he knew the guy was such a gently caress up that his failings would protect Chavez' legacy.
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Oct 27, 2016 08:10
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I got this infographic of the amount of detainees and wounded people in yesterday's events, notice of course how despite having the largest concentration of all, the Caracas march did not result in any wounded. In fact, the wounded from Miranda were after a confrontation with PoliMiranda due to protesters from outside Caracas not wanting to leave, the only fatality yesterday was a policeman. It's important to note that PoliMiranda is different from the Policia Nacional and the GNB, they respond directly to the state government, AKA, Capriles. 
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Oct 27, 2016 13:22
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El Hefe posted:Yeah when things were kinda good between 2004-2009 or so it was only an illusion thanks to the high price of oil but pretty much all the economists knew it was a bubble. Even then things weren't "good" but there was a lot of ways to scavenge a decent living and money if you started in the middle class already. That said you'd still get loving killed if you were a bit careless.
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Oct 27, 2016 20:23
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Maduro announced yet another minimum wage increase for even more inflation and even more businesses closing, good poo poo with the populist measures. Pussy opposition + no foreign country giving a poo poo what happens here = dictatorship for life
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Oct 27, 2016 20:39
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El Hefe posted:Pussy opposition + no foreign country giving a poo poo what happens here = dictatorship for life
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Oct 27, 2016 20:44
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Sinteres posted:I think the overly cautious opposition is part of why other countries don't give a poo poo. As long as they're still pretending they're operating in a democracy, what are other countries supposed to do? If the opposition forced a confrontation and the military actually moved against the people in the real way though, I don't think the US would be able to (or want to) ignore what's going on in its back yard anymore. Actually it's because most neighboring countries have been bought by Venezuela. Look at Uruguay, Mujica's party has been pressuring his coalition to block an investigation on the dealings between Venezuela and Uruguay because they used a private company they own as an intermediary and they took around 5% of all business with Venezuela for absolutely no reason. They are also putting pressure against calling for action against Venezuela, why would that be?. There are politicians here trying to bring attention to Venezuela like Pablo Mieres but the last time he went there he tried to visit some prisoners and was invited to leave. Also his party has like 4% of the votes here so no one cares about what he says.
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Oct 27, 2016 23:21
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Sinteres posted:I think the overly cautious opposition is part of why other countries don't give a poo poo. As long as they're still pretending they're operating in a democracy, what are other countries supposed to do? If the opposition forced a confrontation and the military actually moved against the people in the real way though, I don't think the US would be able to (or want to) ignore what's going on in its back yard anymore. To be fair, while I hold no love for the opposition anymore, if they had cried dictatorship one or two years ago with democratic cards left in the deck, it would´ve been worse. Me and El Hefe and everyone still living here knew back then we were already in a dictatorship, but optics matter to the international community. Now, I don't believe that international pressure will magically save us, but I do hope that the less radical wing of Chavismo may be willing to negotiate to stay out of jail and throw turds like Maduro and Diosdado to the wolves when it becomes obvious we won't back down. The opposition may be somewhat neutered, but they´ve bought my confidence for at least a week now. If poo poo hits the fan and they back down, there are several opposition members who will likely rise to the challenge. I hate marches, and protests, but I sure as hell will be at Miraflores next Thursday – it´s our only card left to play.
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Oct 28, 2016 00:16
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Polidoro posted:Actually it's because most neighboring countries have been bought by Venezuela. Look at Uruguay, Mujica's party has been pressuring his coalition to block an investigation on the dealings between Venezuela and Uruguay because they used a private company they own as an intermediary and they took around 5% of all business with Venezuela for absolutely no reason. They are also putting pressure against calling for action against Venezuela, why would that be?. There are politicians here trying to bring attention to Venezuela like Pablo Mieres but the last time he went there he tried to visit some prisoners and was invited to leave. Also his party has like 4% of the votes here so no one cares about what he says. Labradoodle posted:To be fair, while I hold no love for the opposition anymore, if they had cried dictatorship one or two years ago with democratic cards left in the deck, it would´ve been worse. Me and El Hefe and everyone still living here knew back then we were already in a dictatorship, but optics matter to the international community. Now, I don't believe that international pressure will magically save us, but I do hope that the less radical wing of Chavismo may be willing to negotiate to stay out of jail and throw turds like Maduro and Diosdado to the wolves when it becomes obvious we won't back down.
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Oct 28, 2016 02:31
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Human Rights Watch put up a powerful (and highly depressing) video about the humanitarian crisis. There's nothing new there if you've been keeping up with the situation, but if you haven't, it's a good place to get started. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZSQPGRiFGQ
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Oct 28, 2016 07:36
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Labradoodle posted:I hate marches, and protests, but I sure as hell will be at Miraflores next Thursday – it´s our only card left to play. I'd be there right next to you if I could and I'm glad you're doing it, take care and keep us posted.
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Oct 28, 2016 09:19
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The thing to watch today will be the national strike that is supposedly taking place. Some industries (shopping malls and public transportation) have announced that they will not participate in the strike, so it'll be interesting to see if there's any kind of noticeable effect of the strike. As Labradoodle said, way too many people rely on whatever meager food they can find on a day-to-day basis, so lots of Venezuelans might have no choice but to still go out today and try to find food. Also, Diosdado Cabello said that any business that joins the strike will be taken over by "the army and the workers", so it'll be interesting to watch for businesses getting nationalized in the name of the revolution by the end of the day and in the coming days. Last night, the SEBIN surrounded the headquarters of Polar and the home of its CEO, Lorenzo Mendoza. The move was widely understood to be a not-so-thinly-veiled threat that if there's even a hint that either Polar or Mendoza have anything to do with the strike, the company's getting taken over and he's getting put in jail. Age of the Atomic Mom posted:I'm saying all this because despite me not being Venezuelan or having to deal directly with this, I'm just so tired and miserable about the country. I guess I just needed to vent a bit. But I'm astounded how willfully awful the PSUV is and letting citizens die for nothing. I'm glad (as far as I can tell?) almost all Venegoons here have gotten out. It's brutal to leave your country. I've been trying to convince my friend to leave for ages and he too didn't want to leave his home. But I feel like it's finally going to happen and I just needed to express that to someone somewhere who could relate. I was just talking to some colleagues yesterday about how rapidly things have deteriorated just in the past two weeks or so, and one of them asked me if I ever felt guilty about not being there since so much of my family still is. I told them that I did feel guilty sometimes, and I explained to them that we didn't want to leave Venezuela because we didn't like it: we were forced to leave. I often get teary-eyed whenever I hear Venezuelans say that they want to fix the country so that everyone who has left can come back. It's tough. beer_war posted:Human Rights Watch put up a powerful (and highly depressing) video about the humanitarian crisis. There's nothing new there if you've been keeping up with the situation, but if you haven't, it's a good place to get started. Wow. That video is heavy. Thanks for sharing it.
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Oct 28, 2016 13:14
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Chuck Boone posted:I was just talking to some colleagues yesterday about how rapidly things have deteriorated just in the past two weeks or so Have things deteriorated in the past two weeks? The only thing I've heard of is that the recall was officially cancelled, which doesn't change anything since it was never going to happen in the first place anyway—the 20% per state rule in 3 days with insufficient machines was anyway impossible, so I wonder why they didn't even let that attempt go. Other than that, it doesn't sound like the medical, water, electrical, or food crises have really gone better or worse in the past couple months. Seeing people get optimistic about the obviously ineffectual protests and strikes like the one happening today or the one on November 3rd (which will spectacularly fail to get anywhere or to go on long enough to accomplish anything or draw interest) is the most depressing thing to me now. It doesn't look like anyone is going to push hard enough to try and force the military to start shooting people (not that I can blame them — I wouldn't be the one carrying a megaphone and trying to get people to charge armored police units either). Instead, all the dirty work will just be done by brainwashed colectivos, which will make people more afraid to protest and the military can officially keep its hands clean. I get that you need to have hope, but it looks like it's as misplaced as for the people who hoped North Korea would come back to relaity after Kim Jong-il died—and instead it went even crazier.
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Oct 28, 2016 15:30
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Saladman posted:Have things deteriorated in the past two weeks? The only thing I've heard of is that the recall was officially cancelled, which doesn't change anything since it was never going to happen in the first place anyway—the 20% per state rule in 3 days with insufficient machines was anyway impossible, so I wonder why they didn't even let that attempt go. It's one thing for us to sit around and talk about how X was never really going to happen anyway, and quite another for the government to finally come out and say as much. The cancellation of the elections last week signals a deterioration because it confirms - in the the government's own words - what many of us have been saying for a while: that Venezuela today is a dictatorship where elections happen not because they law says they must happen, but only if and when the government says they happen. The precedent that these announcements have set is terrifying. There is absolutely no guarantee now that any election will take place as long as the PSUV is in power now that the CNE has made these announcements. These announcements are confirmation from the government that the PSUV is not going to go peacefully. Again, we could all shake hands and congratulate each other for knowing this already, but the fact that the government itself has now confirmed this is really important for the history of Venezuela. It's a decision that has most definitely gained attention (Peru's congress just essentially declared Maduro a dictator), and there's good reason to believe that the OAS will take up invoking the democratic charter again. You could tell me that none of this means anything, but I'd say you're moving the goal posts. The situation has deteriorated also because the announcement of the postponement of these electoral processes sparked protests that left a person dead and hundreds injured/arrested. People are mending cuts and bruises and sitting in prison cells as I type this because of this deterioration. The protests we saw on Wednesday were some of the largest in the country's history. The national strike today could result in the takeover of businesses by the military, although that has yet to determined. The National Assembly's "trial" of Maduro next week could result in its dissolution, or the arrest of its leadership. Again, all of this because of what happened last week with the postponement of the elections. Most importantly, though, I'd say that the situation has deteriorated because now we've got a date and time for a civil confrontation that has the potential to result in deaths and even more instability. Again, we can all make our own predictions about how much of a failure/success the November 3 march will be, but there are tens of thousands of people who will leave their homes on the morning of November 3 and wonder if they'll make it back home that evening. The last time that the opposition marched en masse to Miraflores was in April 2002, and 19 people died and Chavez was temporarily removed from power. There are many more reasons to believe that the November 3 march will result in instability and deaths than to believe that absolutely nothing will happen that day. I'm having a tough time "reading" the thread because for months (years?) we've been complaining that the opposition doesn't push hard enough, that they don't tell people to go to Miraflores, that they're not confrontational enough, etc. Now we've got what is essentially a call to arms to storm the presidential palace and remove Maduro by force, and somehow that still falls short of exceptions? I don't get it. It seems that you think that an "effective" protest is one in which the military starts shooting people. If that's the case, I respectfully disagree, but also November 3 is exactly the kind of protest that could result in just that. There's a danger in being a hopeless optimist, I agree. But I am not saying (nor is anyone else in the thread, I think) that on November 4 Venezuela will go back to being OK because Maduro and all his friends will be out. There's also a danger in being a hopeless pessimist, though, because what's the point of any action? Why protest? Why try to vote? Why demand rights? Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Oct 28, 2016 |
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Oct 28, 2016 16:15
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Because I don't even think they'll make it to Miraflores, I'd like to think otherwise, but sadly I know these people far too well, and now that the government has a full week to entrench an entire municipality, it looks even less likely that it will happen. The referendum was a mistake from its inception and it should not have been the only option, because we knew since the very beginning that the CNE and the TSJ both respond directly to Maduro and actually expecting them to voluntarily allow the recall procedures to go through is pathetic. Maduro has not been a dictator since last week, he's been a dictator ever since the whole fiasco with Chavez' death, why has it taken so long for the MUD to acknowledge that? They are too late, there was a time where this conflict could have been avoided should they had stuck to fight the TSJ over their rulings and they allowed it to pass. People are loving dying due to their inaction, it's understandable to be mad at them.
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Oct 28, 2016 18:31
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They should't have accepted any rulings from the TSJ in the first place because the judges were elected illegally in December right after the PSUV lost the elections, but they did, because they are idiots.
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Oct 28, 2016 18:47
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I'm really frustrated and disappointed with the opposition, too. I agree that they could have done more sooner. While I share your frustration and disappointment, I don't understand where you think that frustration and disappointment leaves us. Should the opposition call off the march to Miraflores? Should they cancel the meeting they're supposed to be having at the OAS next week to talk about invoking the democratic charter? What I don't understand is how we go from "the opposition has made lots of mistakes in the past and they're dumb" to "... so we should stop trying to do things now". We can get together and come up with a really long list of the things the opposition should/shouldn't have done in the past, but short of inventing time travel there is absolutely nothing anyone can do about any of that. The fact of the matter is that the only way we'll find out if the opposition reaches Miraflores on Thursday or not is through the attempt. You may be 100% convinced that the opposition is wasting its time with the march and that it will never reach Miraflores, but there are lots of people out there who do think that they will reach the building, many of whom will be marching on that day. So the attempt to reach Miraflores is in itself important for that reason. The world is a deeply flawed place and the opposition is a deeply flawed collection of deeply flawed people, but you play with the cards that you have at the time. It is an absolute tragedy that so much time had to pass and so many people had to die and suffer for the opposition to finally start to look like it may be serious about this, but I don't think throwing our hands up and saying "they're stupid and they should have done this earlier" is constructive if you're looking for solutions.
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Oct 28, 2016 20:14
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The reality of the situation is this: The more Venezuelans that die of starvation or are murdered by government troops/supporters, the more energized Venezuelans will be. Yes, that's not a Good Thing, but that's the reality of revolution. If you're going to topple a dictatorship, some people will die. Hopefully Maduro hangs from a tree when it's all done. El Hefe, on a serious note, things are gaining momentum and you might soon get a front line to the revolution. I'd stalk up on the canned goods now if I were you.
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Oct 28, 2016 21:46
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They should've gone to Miraflores on Wednesday when they actually had a chance in hell of getting anywhere close to it. The MUD are completely useless and we won't get out of this situation thanks to them, of that I'm 100% sure. If we ever do it's going to be people finally getting fed up with the abuse and starting another Caracazo.
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Oct 28, 2016 21:48
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A White Guy posted:The reality of the situation is this: The more Venezuelans that die of starvation or are murdered by government troops/supporters, the more energized Venezuelans will be. Yes, that's not a Good Thing, but that's the reality of revolution. If you're going to topple a dictatorship, some people will die. Hopefully Maduro hangs from a tree when it's all done. Flighty buggers, are they?
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Oct 28, 2016 22:19
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As if the Supreme Court wasn't enough of a joke already, today they published a ruling stating that Maduro is 100% as Venezuelan as having arepas for breakfast. Great move, Supreme Court, that'll shut those birtherists up.
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Oct 29, 2016 01:13
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Labradoodle posted:As if the Supreme Court wasn't enough of a joke already, today they published a ruling stating that Maduro is 100% as Venezuelan as having arepas for breakfast. Great move, Supreme Court, that'll shut those birtherists up. lol that pretty much confirms Maduro is Colombian
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Oct 29, 2016 02:22
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El Hefe posted:They should've gone to Miraflores on Wednesday when they actually had a chance in hell of getting anywhere close to it. Labradoodle posted:As if the Supreme Court wasn't enough of a joke already, today they published a ruling stating that Maduro is 100% as Venezuelan as having arepas for breakfast. Great move, Supreme Court, that'll shut those birtherists up. Yesterday, the Supreme court issued a ruling: "Maduro was born in Venezuela. That is all". It's an odd ruling because there's a really simple way to find out if someone was born on Venezuela or not, which involves providing a valid birth certificate. The ruling means that Maduro probably doesn't have a birth certificate, or that he does have a birth certificate but it shows that he wasn't born in Venezuela. Here's the real quicker: the ruling declares that Maduro was born in La Candelaria, an area of Caracas. However, Maduro himself has said that he was born in Los Chaguaramos, which... well, that's not La Candelaria. In other words, either Maduro or the TSJ are wrong about where he was born. The ruling is probably preempting that report from the National Assembly that is supposed to be released soon that allegedly contains irrefutable evidence that Maduro is a dual Colombian citizen, which would disqualify him from holding office. Personally, I find this whole birther controversy a bit of a red herring because I don't think Maduro would suddenly disappear into thin air even if we all saw clear evidence that he wasn't born in Venezuela. The dude's personally violated at least a dozen constitutional articles. This one would just be another one on that list.
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Oct 29, 2016 14:58
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Not holding my breath for this "irrefutable evidence". Plus, like you said, it wouldn't matter in any case.
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Oct 29, 2016 16:47
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Sinteres posted:I think the overly cautious opposition is part of why other countries don't give a poo poo. As long as they're still pretending they're operating in a democracy, what are other countries supposed to do? If the opposition forced a confrontation and the military actually moved against the people in the real way though, I don't think the US would be able to (or want to) ignore what's going on in its back yard anymore. The US treating Latin America as its personal back yard is what allowed demagogues such as Chavez to come to power in the first place. If they intervened, it would vindicate the chavistas and you're just setting yourself up for a new crop of left-wing populists a generation from now. As for the opposition being 'overly cautious', just what are they supposed to do? They're old guys in suits, made politically powerless by the fact that Venezuela has become a dictatorship in all but name. In a situation like that, it's the streets that count. That's the true opposition. Not that I blame people for not wanting to risk their lives, I'd be the same, but I don't understand the bitter complaining about MUD. Surely you don't need the blessing of this or that specific politician to organize and to protest.
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Oct 29, 2016 17:34
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Phlegmish posted:The US treating Latin America as its personal back yard is what allowed demagogues such as Chavez to come to power in the first place. If they intervened, it would vindicate the chavistas and you're just setting yourself up for a new crop of left-wing populists a generation from now. this. the US pissed away a ton of good will in the last hundred years or so in south america. its a really hosed up version of the boy who cried wolf(or leftist dictator i guess).
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Oct 29, 2016 17:54
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Each and every time the MUD does something moronic some people call them out on it and they get upset because if you criticize them then you're against the opposition, and oh boy they've made a lot of moronic moves.
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Oct 29, 2016 18:01
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Phlegmish posted:The US treating Latin America as its personal back yard is what allowed demagogues such as Chavez to come to power in the first place. If they intervened, it would vindicate the chavistas and you're just setting yourself up for a new crop of left-wing populists a generation from now. Without control of the media, you don't have any ability to rally people into doing something meaningful, and every media outlet that is not government controlled is MUD controlled. The MUD is very quick to denounce and disown anybody who breaks away from the established path of the protests, calling them "infiltrados", effectively giving them away to the government forces. They're also very quick to shut down any criticism, immediately dismissing it as, again, just the works of government agents, thus, nobody tries to do anything outside of what the MUD have established because it's doomed for failure. It is quite literally the same situation than in the US, you may not like either party, but backing a third party means basically throwing your vote away as they lack enough pull to do anything meaningful.
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Oct 29, 2016 21:38
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Phlegmish posted:The US treating Latin America as its personal back yard is what allowed demagogues such as Chavez to come to power in the first place. If they intervened, it would vindicate the chavistas and you're just setting yourself up for a new crop of left-wing populists a generation from now. I didn't mean a military intervention. The US is still by far the most influential country in the hemisphere though, and especially with Brazil caught up in its own disaster, uniquely qualified to lead an effort to isolate the Maduro regime and make clear to military figures that there's no upside to continuing along the path they're on. Maybe I'm naive, but I don't think most of them actually want to turn their country into North Korea. This seems relevant. https://twitter.com/VenezuelaEcon/status/792086645801619456
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Oct 30, 2016 01:39
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They blew through 8% of their foreign reserve in one day? Good lord.
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Oct 30, 2016 02:17
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Sinteres posted:I didn't mean a military intervention. The US is still by far the most influential country in the hemisphere though, and especially with Brazil caught up in its own disaster, uniquely qualified to lead an effort to isolate the Maduro regime and make clear to military figures that there's no upside to continuing along the path they're on. Maybe I'm naive, but I don't think most of them actually want to turn their country into North Korea. Well, they have been applying sanctions to several individuals and they're also closing in on PDVSA-linked corruption cases (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/u-s-said-to-be-closing-in-on-venezuelan-asset-seizures-charges). Honestly, that's about as much as they can do without giving Chavistas more ammunition, I think.
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Oct 30, 2016 02:20
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wdarkk posted:They blew through 8% of their foreign reserve in one day? Good lord. I don't have a link handy, but that $909 million drop is all due to PDVSA having to pay back some bonds that were due yesterday. The drops aren't normally that abrupt.
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Oct 30, 2016 02:58
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 Yeah, that was definitely an unusual day, but it's been a brutal year anyway.
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Oct 30, 2016 03:16
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Definitely. Reserves haven't been this low in 20 years. I haven't kept up too much with the PDVSA bond swap offer, but as far as I know the offer expired yesterday so any investor who didn't take it got paid, which explains the $909 million payment I mentioned. I know PDVSA had said that unless the swap was successful it might have trouble meeting financial obligations (read: might go bankrupt). I don't know if the swap was successful or how that might be determined, but if PDVSA goes under Venezuela is through.
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Oct 30, 2016 04:26
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All it takes is another accident like in Amuay and PDVSA are done because now they don't have the money or foreign companies to fix anything.
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Oct 30, 2016 04:48
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