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Agrajag posted:How the gently caress do you expect anyone to calm down with the prospect of Trump winning and all he and his supporters disgusting vitriol being validated?!?! Trump isn't going to win.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:11
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turn it up TURN ME ON posted:Oh nooooo lol, bullshit
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Nov 1, 2016 23:12
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:This is all very good news yes? It seems that the Black vote is starting to catch up and the Hispanic vote is beating past results. Am I looking at this correctly? Yes. So everyone calm the gently caress down.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:13
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straight up brolic posted:most of the hardcore prob. stats people do I know Andrew Gelman in fact co-published a paper with him.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:14
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I'm enjoying all the arzying, because it's dropped the price of shares for a Clinton win on Predictit, and I'm hoping to make a dollar or two off this stupid, anxiety provoking mess.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:13
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A Winner is Jew posted:Yes. 
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Nov 1, 2016 23:13
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CroatianAlzheimers posted:Which one? Kenyon! Tim Kaine was recently there and it has been in the news for elections before.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:13
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Comey and the FBI is literally doing wikileaks drip feed to swing the loving election.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:13
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turn it up TURN ME ON posted:Oh nooooo Breitbart?
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Nov 1, 2016 23:14
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chumbler posted:12% is still too high for comfort. Higher likelihood you'd off yourself in a game of Russian roulette. I'd take my chances on the election instead.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:14
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Sky Shadowing posted:I think 538 is not both measuring the polls, but trends. It basically says that Trump is trending up thus it assumes he will continue to do so. Crowsbeak posted:Its dumb, but its less dumb then not expanding the house. Seriously are their any good resources for why we haven't, because we have over three times what the population was in 1020 and we have same number of reps now as we did then? Nessus posted:Because a rally doesn't necessarily target votes. Trump can do all the WWE road show touring he wants - and indeed I am sure that if he's hitting the same place, he'll get the same audience. But in fact, WWE usually fills stadiums to the same extent that the Donald seems to be doing, and yet wrestling remains a dumbass muscleman sideshow which does not dominate the media.  In all seriousness the "wrestling fans are rednecks" stereotype is seriously out of date. The Venn diagram between "comic book nerds" and "pro wrestling fans" is very close to being a single circle, and these days that includes the wrestlers too, who can be hilarious dorks.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:14
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Agrajag posted:Comey and the FBI is literally doing wikileaks drip feed to swing the loving election.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:15
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turn it up TURN ME ON posted:Oh nooooo Lol. Is that a meme poll? The gently caress is this even?
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Nov 1, 2016 23:15
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Northjayhawk posted:lol, bullshit i dunno man Oregon Poll has an s-rank on 538
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Nov 1, 2016 23:15
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A Winner is Jew posted:Yes. I think the key point I take from that is that a significant amount of early D voters are first timers or unlikely voters; which would mean polls that track LVs rather than RVs are significantly underplaying Dem numbers. Did I get this right?
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Nov 1, 2016 23:15
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Northjayhawk posted:In addition to this, if Hillary loses, then anyone with the gang tag shown on my posts gets perma-banned. Hey I haven't toxxed for anyone. I just like burritos. 
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Nov 1, 2016 23:15
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Anime Schoolgirl posted:That would be the (double-digit)th time something as political appeasance has backfired on him, it's not like he's not used to that Huh, giving in and doing the thing that your political opponents (who want to destroy you) want you to do actually hurts you in the end, who would have thought? 
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Nov 1, 2016 23:15
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"Hey Sully, remember when I said that chart was my last" "That's right Mel, you did say that" "I lied" 
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Nov 1, 2016 23:16
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Agrajag posted:Comey and the FBI is literally doing wikileaks drip feed to swing the loving election. Except nobody's reporting on it anymore?
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Nov 1, 2016 23:16
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Cingulate posted:NYT overview: It's a Republican in Texas saying something mean about not only a Democrat, but a Clinton. I'll let you take one guess at if this will hurt him in any way.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:17
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CapnAndy posted:Also hey gently caress you buddy
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Nov 1, 2016 23:17
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straight up brolic posted:most of the hardcore prob. stats people do
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Nov 1, 2016 23:17
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If McMullin wins the amount of shitposting will probably light the servers on fire and it'll all be a moot point anyways. We'll have to ask Library of Congress for some backups.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:17
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Cingulate posted:Source? https://www.google.com/amp/s/mishtalk.com/2016/08/07/nassim-telab-blasts-nate-silver-about-election-odds-in-series-of-tweets/amp/
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Nov 1, 2016 23:17
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canepazzo posted:I think the key point I take from that is that a significant amount of early D voters are first timers or unlikely voters; which would mean polls that track LVs rather than RVs are significantly underplaying Dem numbers. This again is correct. Also assume that the % of R LV will be down slightly because Trump literally has no GOTV campaign.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:18
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Northjayhawk posted:In addition to this, if Hillary loses, then anyone with the gang tag shown on my posts gets perma-banned. Shortly after I joined I noticed a link between people with the big MAGA picture under their names and bad posting. Then I found out about the toxx threads and it all made sense
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Nov 1, 2016 23:18
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Some bad polls came out? How bad should I arzy?
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Nov 1, 2016 23:18
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Guy Goodbody posted:Shortly after I joined I noticed a link between people with the big MAGA picture under their names and bad posting. Then I found out about the toxx threads and it all made sense The statistical outlier is baloogan. baloogan is love baloogan is life
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Nov 1, 2016 23:19
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Charlz Guybon posted:Some bad polls came out? My world's on fire, how about yours, that's the way I like it cause I never get bored.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:20
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Charlz Guybon posted:Some bad polls came out? Trump - 48% Clinton - 20% Arioch the Chaos Lord - 32%
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Nov 1, 2016 23:20
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Thaddius the Large posted:I'm enjoying all the arzying, because it's dropped the price of shares for a Clinton win on Predictit, and I'm hoping to make a dollar or two off this stupid, anxiety provoking mess. You could probably make more than a few dollars on the stock market too. Arzying intensifies.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:20
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Charlz Guybon posted:Some bad polls came out? We're going to lose Oregon. It's over. turn it up TURN ME ON posted:Oh nooooo
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Nov 1, 2016 23:21
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Lead out in cuffs posted:Hillary's website has a super-quick quiz that guides you through the various options and helps you choose: Just signed up to volunteer, thanks for this! Go, Abuela, go!   
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Nov 1, 2016 23:21
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A Winner is Jew posted:This again is correct. The RNC has a GOTV campaign that is going toe to toe with whatever Hillary has.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:21
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Mel Mudkiper posted:"Hey Sully, remember when I said that chart was my last"  Please put this in the OP.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:21
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Duscat posted:Nationalism isn't the disease, it's a symptom, and what's really killing us is multinational corporate capital gaining more and more power to override democratically elected governments trying to protect the interests of their people. There's really no such thing as an "American" megacorporation, they're all publically traded and owned by international investors from all over the world. In the old feudal systems, the local lord knew that if he taxed his serfs too harshly, they'd revolt and storm the castle. In modern feudalism, each lord owns a small interest in a million fields and lives half a world away, and starved serfs are just another writeoff on the balance sheet. I don't think people think too critically about "nation" and capitalism. Capitalism undermines the nation's sovereignty right? Cause multinational corporations operate across borders and lobby to change laws and exist outside jurisdictions and violate the will of the people and all this loving jazz. But one of the most important things about national borders is they determine what gets taxed and by how much. So multinational corporations have a definite interest in propping up the idea of the nation because national borders help them avoid paying taxes. So I guess my point is I don't know what the gently caress to do with this knowledge except note that getting rid of the idea of the sovereign nation won't help us fight capitalism, and going all in on nationalism (besides all the baggage that comes along with it like xenophobia) won't help us. So I don't know what we do.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:21
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Charlz Guybon posted:Some bad polls came out? Not much, there could be some issues with 'em and other polls continue touting a Clinton lead.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:22
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Charlz Guybon posted:Some bad polls came out? There were also some OK polls and some good polls. The bad poll was recent and we're goons, so we're still in the process of getting off the ledge.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:22
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turn it up TURN ME ON posted:Oh nooooo Trump is NOT gonna win loving Oregon. Thanks for reminding me to mail in my ballot, though.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:23
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Charlz Guybon posted:Some bad polls came out? An A-rated pollster on 538 released a North Carolina poll that had Trump +7. It's almost certainly an outlier considering other NC polls haven't shown any movement since comeygate.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:23
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