|
Instant Sunrise posted:and yes, they did deliberately name it "Orca" because orcas are the natural predator of narwhals Oh I know. I just got my terminology mixed up.
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:31
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 23:47 |
|
|
Anime Schoolgirl posted:That assumes Scandinavian and urban Mormons take over D&D Perhaps I should have said "more superficially polite."
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:32
|
|
|
Dogwood Fleet posted:But you do. They bag your groceries, they're the nice old man who served in WWII, they're your next door neighbor, they're your kid's elementary school teacher. There's no getting away from it and there's no end to the "ick" factor. Yeah, I mean they are my friends and family, too. It's just in previous elections I never had this same level of disgust for Republican voters. I could see how you could be a decent person and still vote Romney or McCain or even Bush. Now, with Trump's and the alt-right's hate being so incredibly blatant, that feeling is gone.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:32
|
|
|
JVNO posted:Wasn't the large wave of McCain/Romney tox bans responsible for the leftward shift in the SA forums? I quite remember the forums culture being a lot more centrist/right leaning in the mid 2000s. LF and the financial crisis were probably bigger reasons for the leftward shift.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:32
|
|
|
Edible Hat posted:Tom Waits is so good and I wish he would make another album. Anyone who hasn't heard this is missing out. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...8jtvfnGP_UlkifA A chorus of Tom Waits and Kieth Richards.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:33
|
|
|
seiferguy posted:Mel, your charts are good but I kindly request you use something besides sans I was going for maximum obnoxious
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:33
|
|
|
I only know Nassim Taleb from his anti-GMO hard on. I don't know if he's any good at his actual discipline, but I do know he's great at talking out of his rear end while he pretends to understand poo poo he doesn't.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:33
|
|
|
Mel Mudkiper posted:"Hey Sully, remember when I said that chart was my last" If she's really behind by 7 in NC then none of VA,MI,WI or CO is a sure thing.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:33
|
|
|
 this is an actual political ad frankly im surprised harambe isn't on it
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:33
|
|
|
Guy Goodbody posted:So far, the only war involving nuclear weapons ended rather well, considering. The other side didn't have nukes, you idiot
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:33
|
|
|
Northjayhawk posted:lol, that is just hilariously incompetent. I assume this guy has never done anything which would have ever gotten him on a GOP phone list. If they are just calling everyone in certain areas (not latinos or casino workers) where they think Republicans live, then that "GOTV" effort is stupidly inefficient. Reminder that this was the GOP's best GOTV effort 4 years ago.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:33
|
|
|
Hieronymous Alloy posted:Are we sure of that? Are there a significant number of #nevertrumpers in the House? Instant Sunrise posted:you were probably being flippant and making a joke there, but according to trump's FEC disclosures his campaign has literally spent more money on hats than they have on polling or direct mail.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:33
|
|
|
Geostomp posted:I don't get it. Why is the FBI being so blatant about trying to get Trump elected these days? What does Comey think will happen if he somehow succeeds? Is he just spiteful enough to destroy his career and office reputation for this? He's a republican who held a prominent office. He will have plenty of career options and his reputation will be wholly irrelevant. If anything republicans will venerate him as a real patriot.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:33
|
|
|
seiferguy posted:Mel, your charts are good but I kindly request you use something besides sans Mel Mudkiper posted:I was going for maximum obnoxious Helvetica.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:33
|
|
|
JVNO posted:Wasn't the large wave of McCain/Romney tox bans responsible for the leftward shift in the SA forums? I quite remember the forums culture being a lot more centrist/right leaning in the mid 2000s. The global financial crisis popping the bubble of a bunch of  college libertarians is what made D&D more left wing
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:34
|
|
|
I mean one of the clearest signs that Nate's model might be over-estimating uncertainty is that his model is an outlier of all the other aggregates. Even Sam Wang's very high 99% is still matched by two other pollsters. No one is getting Nate's math except for Nate
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:35
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793580848289353728
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:35
|
|
|
Mel Mudkiper posted:I mean one of the clearest signs that Nate's model might be over-estimating uncertainty is that his model is an outlier of all the other aggregates. Even Sam Wang's very high 99% is still matched by two other pollsters. OTOH Nate is a Wizard.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:36
|
|
Endorph posted:
They should have ordered it so Stein is last.
|
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:37
|
|
|
chumbler posted:He's a republican who held a prominent office. He will have plenty of career options and his reputation will be wholly irrelevant. If anything republicans will venerate him as a real patriot. It's still somewhat surprising. It's pretty unprecidented, and he had a reputation as a straight shooter due to the fact that he basically stopped the Bush administration from making Ashcroft sign a bunch of bullshit while Ashcroft was hospitalized.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:37
|
|
|
alpha_destroy posted:I don't think people think too critically about "nation" and capitalism. Capitalism undermines the nation's sovereignty right? Cause multinational corporations operate across borders and lobby to change laws and exist outside jurisdictions and violate the will of the people and all this loving jazz. But one of the most important things about national borders is they determine what gets taxed and by how much. So multinational corporations have a definite interest in propping up the idea of the nation because national borders help them avoid paying taxes. So I guess my point is I don't know what the gently caress to do with this knowledge except note that getting rid of the idea of the sovereign nation won't help us fight capitalism, and going all in on nationalism (besides all the baggage that comes along with it like xenophobia) won't help us. So I don't know what we do. I'm not sure I follow your argument that more nationalism would somehow help multinationals. Multinational corporations will play nations against each other, sure, but a strong democratic government would limit their lobbying power and protect in the interests of the people. Xenophobia and jingoism are a lot less likely to erupt when people feel secure in their future and know that their vote counts. How to get there, I don't know either, as nationalism in America these days mostly comes up in the phrase "white nationalism" and I'm not sure how you would even define "the American nation" nowadays, we've been under a divide-and-conquer policy for so long. It seems after 9/11 there was a brief flash of national unity. Maybe we can only come together against an external enemy. I hope not, since we have nukes now.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:37
|
|
|
Trump's IT infrastructure definitely seems way better, it's just not used as a GOTV effort http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/inside-the-trump-bunker-with-12-days-to-go
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:37
|
|
|
Lead out in cuffs posted:Hillary's website has a super-quick quiz that guides you through the various options and helps you choose: I broke my my mouse and my hand mashing "I am scared of Trump" thanks
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:37
|
|
|
Mel Mudkiper posted:I was going for maximum obnoxious It was an Undertale joke 
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:37
|
|
|
VikingofRock posted:Yeah, I mean they are my friends and family, too. It's just in previous elections I never had this same level of disgust for Republican voters. I could see how you could be a decent person and still vote Romney or McCain or even Bush. Now, with Trump's and the alt-right's hate being so incredibly blatant, that feeling is gone. We're learning the psychological limits of how far people are willing to go, what bullshit they'll eaccept and truths to ignore, to convince themselves that they are not actually voting for a monster when the supreme court is on the line. The people who are unable to bridge that gap are the #NeverTrumpers, and they are depressingly few, but good on Utah for having some morality. I believe that if one side or the other had an unassailable large majority on the court and it was obvious that it wasn't going to change in the next decade, then the stakes would be lower and people would be less willing to rationalize voting for Trump.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:37
|
|
|
canepazzo posted:Trump's GOTV is going to win Nevada: Does anyone have experience with the GOP equivalent to VoteBuilder? Is it any good?
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:38
|
|
|
Gorelab posted:It's still somewhat surprising. It's pretty unprecidented, and he had a reputation as a straight shooter due to the fact that he basically stopped the Bush administration from making Ashcroft sign a bunch of bullshit while Ashcroft was hospitalized. Why is it so surprising that a guy could be against torture but doesn't care about putting his fingers on the scale of the election?
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:38
|
|
|
I thought a lot of the old right wingers left when 4chan formed. This place used to be a conservative wasteland where every white man was either in jail on bogus rape charges or unemployable because affirmative action kept them out of college.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:39
|
|
|
rscott posted:Why is it so surprising that a guy could be against torture but doesn't care about putting his fingers on the scale of the election? He knows the truth that Hillary is pro torture. 
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:39
|
|
|
seiferguy posted:It was an Undertale joke gently caress
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:39
|
|
|
rscott posted:Why is it so surprising that a guy could be against torture but doesn't care about putting his fingers on the scale of the election?
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:40
|
|
|
The Little Kielbasa posted:I thought a lot of the old right wingers left when 4chan formed. This place used to be a conservative wasteland where every white man was either in jail on bogus rape charges or unemployable because affirmative action kept them out of college. I remember the day years ago when I first discovered fark was exclusively the home of 30 something white male libertarian discontents
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:40
|
|
|
Mel Mudkiper posted:I mean one of the clearest signs that Nate's model might be over-estimating uncertainty is that his model is an outlier of all the other aggregates. Even Sam Wang's very high 99% is still matched by two other pollsters. Its also difficult to prove that Nate is the real outlier. That may be part of his decision, it'll take another 100 years of elections to prove that he's got too much uncertainty, but it only takes one shocking night where Trump somehow wins by +4% or something to discredit all of the 99% guys. If this was my livelihood rather than a hobby, I'd be careful too.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:41
|
|
|
Nessus posted:OK, now you're just making poo poo up. Look at the data. With the exception of states that really lean blue, like CO and VA, Hillary is at best matching 2012 numbers (NV) or running behind (FL, NC, OH, IA).
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:41
|
|
|
Northjayhawk posted:We're learning the psychological limits of how far people are willing to go, what bullshit they'll eaccept and truths to ignore, to convince themselves that they are not actually voting for a monster when the supreme court is on the line. The people who are unable to bridge that gap are the #NeverTrumpers, and they are depressingly few, but good on Utah for having some morality. To be honest, the people I know IRL who are voting for Trump aren't gritting their teeth and pulling the lever for the SCOTUS but genuinely just hate the Democrats and the leadership of their own party (for letting Obama destroy our country).
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:42
|
|
|
TyrantWD posted:Look at the data. With the exception of states that really lean blue, like CO and VA, Hillary is at best matching 2012 numbers (NV) or running behind (FL, NC, OH, IA). Post the map.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:44
|
|
|
TyrantWD posted:Look at the data. With the exception of states that really lean blue, like CO and VA, Hillary is at best matching 2012 numbers (NV) or running behind (FL, NC, OH, IA). TyrantWD posted:The RNC has a GOTV campaign that is going toe to toe with whatever Hillary has. Do you have anything to back up this assertion, or do you wanna skip straight to the echo chamber stage in the flowchart 
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:44
|
|
|
canepazzo posted:Trump's GOTV is going to win Nevada: Also relevant: this story about how the Trump campaign got a bunch of people together to try and early-vote, but sent buses to the wrong places https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/793451874833793024 quote:1/ Few thoughts on GOTV and ground game – as it's the buzz of the day. A case study to illustrate how Trump, for all his talk, has none.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:46
|
|
|
TyrantWD posted:The RNC has a GOTV campaign that is going toe to toe with whatever Hillary has.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:47
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 23:47 |
|
|
Also Hillary is outperforming Obama in both Florida and north Carolina.
|
|
#
?
Nov 1, 2016 23:47
|
|
