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FactsAreUseless posted:Anyone else want to say this? You're never allowed to not be active in USPol threads.  Mel Mudkiper posted:Here you go buddy in one convenient single easily quotable post This could use a repost for people.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:23
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703 posted:Weird - white guy murders two police officers and it's already half-way down the 24/7 new networks pages. Guess that doesn't sell well? Also dude got taken alive and they didn't need to send in a robot to blow him up remotely.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:23
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Evil Fluffy posted:You're never allowed to not be active in USPol threads.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:23
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Supraluminal posted:...Yes? So Silver, who is getting criticized for having an overly conservative model right now in this thread, was not conservative enough in his projection of that race, in essence. Right, so we've got a case in point of what he's trying to control for, a polling miss. If he's trying to be cautious but wound up just as wrong (which I am unsure of, hence the question), it's a sign he's going about that caution the wrong way.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:23
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+1 for Hillary in MN. I cannot wait until this election is finally over and white nationalism gets shut the gently caress down.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:24
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Non Serviam posted:Agreed. Trash fire finds common purpose with second, smaller trash fire.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:24
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spacetoaster posted:You're arguing with people that have rationalized their cognitive dissonance with being against negative perceptions/actions/etc based on race, color, religion, sex, or national origin by adding a bunch of qualifiers that make it okay to do so when they want. What the gently caress is this post?
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Nov 2, 2016 20:25
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Crain posted:This is a big point to make sure people get.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:26
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Non Serviam posted:I don't want a sociopath as president. Sorry that affects you so much. You may not be aware but "sociopath" and its less explosive cousin "psychopath" tend to be characteristics which get associated with being a politician. They aren't ever formal diagnoses, of course, but people like to blithely fling the terms at politicians because they believe said pols don't seem to speak to their particular feelings on things, ergo those pols must not have much or any conscience, since anyone with a conscience would certainly see things their way. The reality of it is simply that those particular feelings aren't significant inputs to broader issues at hand and when you're elevated to being responsible for executing the government's foreign policy at the pleasure of the president then sometimes your choices are all poo poo no matter what you do because there's two and a half centuries of inertia behind the situation you're dealing with. Basically what I'm saying is that people who call any political candidate a sociopath or psychopath are shouting armchair diagnoses into the ether out of selfish frustration with the gap between reality and idealism, or are just trying to get a rise out of people.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:26
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theflyingorc posted:The question is - how do you call Nate Silver "wrong"? To pull back to this, there's a number of things you can do. One thing is that decent models give some implied level of uncertainty - for example Nate Silver's model gives a prediction for the most likely number of Clinton seat wins, but also a spread around that. This means he's *also* predicted the degree of inaccuracy of his own model. Similarly for Sam Wang. What will be interesting after the election is comparing the degree each model misses the true result to how accurate each model internally assesses their accuracy. If for example Wang greatly underestimates his degree of miss, or if Nate Silver's prediction is *more* accurate than he predicts, then that would be interesting. http://election.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/autographics/EV_history.png You can see how incredibly accurate Wang thinks his model is - he thinks the final EV will hit his red strike zone with 68% probability, which basically means if the EV result is even 10 EV away from his target then there's something fundamentally wrong with his model. (EDIT: One of the reasons I don't like Wang's model in addition here is that the general election is just another poll, and so the metamargin part of his model also says stuff about the closeness of generic polls - outlier polls like the 1% Trump and the 9% Clinton polls literally cannot happen by his model.) http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo You can look at how broad Nate's model is in contrast. Again, if the final EV is too near Nate's central estimate then that's also an issue. Fangz fucked around with this message at 20:38 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 20:26
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Arrrthritis posted:+1 for Hillary in MN. I cannot wait until this election is finally over and white nationalism gets shut the gently caress down. Why would it be shut down? It's just been proved to be a huge political influence, when it had previously been thought to be the refuge of a few cranks.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:26
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/video-shows-trump-with-mob-figure-he-denied-knowing-090025964.htmlThe article posted:Jack O’Donnell, former president of Trump Plaza, said that Trump and LiButti even did a business deal together. During a trip the two of them took aboard Trump’s private helicopter, Trump agreed to pay $500,000 for one of LiButti’s prized thoroughbreds — a racehorse he promptly renamed “D.J. Trump.” But when the horse later went lame, Trump “reneged” on the deal, O’Donnell said. 
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Nov 2, 2016 20:26
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It's Huffpost, but here is a relatively decent presentation of the reasons why the media has generally avoided covering the Trump Rape case. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-rape-case_us_581a31a5e4b0c43e6c1d9834
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Nov 2, 2016 20:27
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"I Voted Against Trump Therefore How Dare You Impugn My Progressivism" says every white moderate for the next 20 years
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Nov 2, 2016 20:27
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No Butt Stuff posted:We cannot go one god damned day without someone in here talking about the plight of the white man. That's the plight of you, but it's not fair to suggest that white people don't suffer from poverty in America. Intersectionality is the idea that people experience, racism, classism, sexism, etc in different ways based on the intersection of those societal forces. Not that being white gives a -10 modifier to poverty suffering so white people take no damage from being poor.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:27
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BarbarianElephant posted:Why would it be shut down? It's just been proved to be a huge political influence, when it had previously been thought to be the refuge of a few cranks. Only white people thought that.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:27
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FAUXTON posted:You may not be aware but "sociopath" and its less explosive cousin "psychopath" tend to be characteristics which get associated with being a politician. I sincerely believe Trump is a sociopath or, at least, a victim of narcissistic personality disorder. I don't say that for shock value.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:27
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:"I Voted Against Trump Therefore How Dare You Impugn My Progressivism" says every white moderate for the next 20 years "but I don't support BLM," they follow up with.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:28
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I think "jews" has become a bit worse this year than it was last year because we went from "lol, anti-semitism in america is not really a thing" to "holy loving poo poo where did all of these nazis come from?"
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Nov 2, 2016 20:29
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Non Serviam posted:Agreed. This, seriously just the fact she could tip the judiciary to the left would be great. For if the conservative movement had a goal beyond destroying the new deal it was putting in place a judicary that would never ever let any further reforms or restorative reforms pass. The destruction of their dream of rule by judicial tyranny like Brazil has will be destroyed by HRC.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:29
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You guys realize 538 is just a poll aggregation site and not the official and legally binding scoreboard of the race right? It isn't Nate's job to blow the whistle and call the race at 11pm next Tuesday based on his models and latest polling data. Checking his site a dozen times a day and agonizing when "good" polls don't push Clinton's probability of winning high enough is mentally unhealthy and ridiculous.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:29
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Non Serviam posted:I sincerely believe Trump is a sociopath or, at least, a victim of narcissistic personality disorder. I don't say that for shock value. Trump? A narcissist? I am SHOCKED, I tell you. Shocked!
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Nov 2, 2016 20:29
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theflyingorc posted:There are still a lot of reasons to doubt the veracity of the Trump child rape claims. A reminder that JEZEBEL wouldn't touch it because of how sketchy it looked: It's really worth noting that that lawsuit predates the wave of sexual assault accusations. That's when all of the 'there's probably nothing here, that just seems too unlikely that a man of his stature (who associates gladly with Epstein and treats women terribly) would do something so stupid.' I mean, I want to think that this country wouldn't nominate a loving child rapist, but that story is about a million times more in line with Trump's character as now known than it was six months ago when all those 'this is probably just someone who wants attention' articles were coming out.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:29
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Donald Trump has literally no idea that a new accuser is about to surface 
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Nov 2, 2016 20:30
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Trump is, by objective fact: a narcissist, a liar, a misogynist, a racist, a cheat, a thief, a welcher, a blowhard, a know-nothing and a failed businessman. I feel fine in saying that any person who votes for him, ignoring those facts, is a person not worth knowing or listening to in any way.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:30
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Just stopped by my local Hillary GOTV office to grab signs and stickers/Dem voting guides/etc, I plan on volunteering for phone banking/canvassing tomorrow evening. Every little bit helps! Get out and help people to VOTE FOR HILLARY    !!
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Nov 2, 2016 20:31
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Nonsense posted:Donald Trump has literally no idea that a new accuser is about to surface Maybe: https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/793895679974371337
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Nov 2, 2016 20:32
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Rhesus Pieces posted:You guys realize 538 is just a poll aggregation site and not the official and legally binding scoreboard of the race right? We're not just political nerds, we're also goons on top of that. What else are we going to do other than obsess on what the most well-known computer model says about ?
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Nov 2, 2016 20:32
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Non Serviam posted:I sincerely believe Trump is a sociopath or, at least, a victim of narcissistic personality disorder. I don't say that for shock value.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:32
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TheGreatGnocchi posted:How the hell did Ohio vote for a black president twice, but is polling so high for Trump? You can't simply say white people. Is Cuyahoga County LV's really that much lower this election? Higher misogyny than racism? Anecdotally, I know a lot of black guys that hate Hillary Clinton, mostly in the mold of Nation of Islam guys who don't think women should lead though. I don't think it's representative, but I would assume Trump is doing better with men of any race than Obama did.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:32
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Radish posted:BUT LOOK AT ALL THIS RED One thing to always remember, all that red stuff on the map is literally the lifeless heath devoured by the extraterrestrial horror in the Color Out of Space. Those poor souls who still reside there cannot be truly said to live.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:33
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Douchebag wearing a hat indoors.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:33
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a shameful boehner posted:Trump is, by objective fact: a narcissist, a liar, a misogynist, a racist, a cheat, a thief, a welcher, a blowhard, a know-nothing and a failed businessman. B-b-b-but emails!
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Nov 2, 2016 20:33
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Every time Shaun King posts something anti-Trump on Facebook, the comments just get flooded with "BUT WHAT ABOUT $HILLARY?!?" bullshit. I wonder if he regrets going in so hardcore with the Bernie or Bust crowd during the primary now that it's clear that so many of his "allies" from then only cared about him being a black Bernie supporter and not about any of his anti-racism work.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:33
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:"but I don't support BLM," they follow up with. "I just think, you know, they have a point, kind of, but they're not really doing it right. Protesting on highways doesn't really do anything, you're just getting in the way of people who just want to get home. And when you think about it, cops have it tough, too."
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Nov 2, 2016 20:33
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:"I Voted Against Trump Therefore How Dare You Impugn My Progressivism" says every white moderate for the next 20 years I talked about this with a friend about how history books will be written about the 2016 election and how brave people were to vote for the first woman US President and how she got 50% of the vote while ignoring that the voter participation rate is in the 60% range. Yeah, lets all pat ourselves on the back for maybe 1/3rd of the eligible voting population pulling the lever for Hillary Clinton. I know it's a sad and pessimistic view to have; however, I think it's still going to get hand waved with time.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:33
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It's too late to matter now, but I'd have liked to see more reporting about how much Team Trump utterly fails at retail politics. You have Trump himself attacking his own supporters like the whole debacle with the fire department, Suckerfish Trump stealing lemonade, and a million little un-aggregated stories of Trump being just incessantly, reflexively rude to everyone he encounters. Even Bush Jr. had an undeniable charisma in person - you could totally understand how he charmed people on a 1:1 basis and overrode their critical thinking. Trump doesn't have that skill. Everyone who's ever had to deal with him face to face hates him.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:33
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Nonsense posted:Donald Trump has literally no idea that a new accuser is about to surface Hmm?
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Nov 2, 2016 20:33
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I was wondering, what methods do people here use to go through the local election parts of their ballot? Like, not senators and props and other big ticket sections, but stuff like the huge list of superior court judges and random offices like Chief Dog Catcher. Actually I guess the judges part is the one I'm most curious about, because the best I can do to get any info beyond just a list of names is to look them up on Ballotpedia, but just about every time it's a minimal CV highlighting places and dates of the person's career which is pretty opaque to me. The most I could get is stuff like "oh this judge was appointed by a past governor I hated" but that doesn't feel like a really strong yard stick. Is there some place online that can highlight big rulings they had or other things like that. Where one could draw conclusions like "they throw the book at drug offenders no matter how minor the infraction" or "they tend to rule against employers in discrimination suits". Otherwise I feel like I'm reading tea leaves and/or straight up choosing people based on what I think about their name.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:34
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A Fancy 400 lbs posted:Every time Shaun King posts something anti-Trump on Facebook, the comments just get flooded with "BUT WHAT ABOUT $HILLARY?!?" bullshit. I wonder if he regrets going in so hardcore with the Bernie or Bust crowd during the primary now that it's clear that so many of his "allies" from then only cared about him being a black Bernie supporter and not about any of his anti-racism work. His anti-racism work is already blasted, the recent shooting video he posted was flamed because the woman who was killed appeared to be ramming police officers, who apparently had already shot her.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:34
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