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Grumblegrox posted:on 538 in the last couple of updates, 5 hillary-favoring national ipsos polls and one ppp poll of missourri favoring trump moved the needle 0.2 % toward hillary. then in the next update one poll out of missourri without even a very big sample size, favored trump but it isn't a surprise, and it dropped hillary's chances 1.4 %. Anyone understand what is going on here? If polls are mixed, even if they generally favour Clinton, that's considered to increase uncertainty, and higher uncertainty always pushes in the direction of a cointoss. Welcome to the 538 model, wheeeeeeeeeeeee
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Nov 3, 2016 01:14
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TheBigAristotle posted:This: Keep wheeling out the terrible news. The fact he is even a serious contender in this election is so heart breaking 
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Nov 3, 2016 01:15
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Edible Hat posted:If Trump were to win, he would be the first president to win the presidency without winning his home state in how long? Since Gore
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Nov 3, 2016 01:15
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Edible Hat posted:If Trump were to win, he would be the first president to win the presidency without winning his home state in how long? Woodrow Wilson lost New Jersey in 1916.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:15
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Leaving nukes aside, handing over the command of the US armed forces to an orange manbaby who clearly has trouble with understanding the concept of backing down from a confrontation would be bad enough in itself for everybody outside the US to have a legitimate interest in the elections.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:15
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Ciaphas posted:like seriously i need some anti-anxiety meds right freaking now Hillary's chances of winning are 99% on PEC right now
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Nov 3, 2016 01:16
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I dont understand the arzying at all. There is absolutely no way trump wins. (edit: if he does, i'll do that thing people do who nearly died in some freak incident where you stare into space and quietly laugh for half an hour.) MattD1zzl3 fucked around with this message at 01:19 on Nov 3, 2016 |
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Nov 3, 2016 01:16
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GalacticAcid posted:That's not at all true. Nukes are bigger now so "nearby" (the air blast radius) goes from a mile in the case of Hiroshima to about 30 miles for a minuteman 3
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Nov 3, 2016 01:16
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Kit Walker posted:Hillary's chances of winning are 99% on PEC right now I know but reason and logic flew out the loving window of my mind on the last page with that revelation on the Football 20 more minutes until I can leave work, take some meds and just lie down for a while
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Nov 3, 2016 01:17
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Stereotype posted:Nukes are bigger now so "nearby" (the air blast radius) goes from a mile in the case of Hiroshima to about 30 miles for a minuteman 3 Lol that's true, I hadn't thought about it in such grotesque depth and accuracy.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:18
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Zeno-25 posted:Trump and his supporters prove that minority-majority can't come to America soon enough. Minorities have it great here. Also I am terrified of being a minority.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:19
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GalacticAcid posted:Lol that's true, I hadn't thought about it in such grotesque depth and accuracy. http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ Here, you can overlay any yield you like on Google Earth to see where you'd land fallout and blast wise.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:19
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GalacticAcid posted:Not really barring, basically, a Secret Service coup. or mike pence and 8 cabinet members pull a 25th amendment coup
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Nov 3, 2016 01:19
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Theoretically the president has sole control over the football (Secdef has to confirm but cannot veto) but I just cannot believe that in practice - even if Trump stuffs his cabinet full of yesmen - the Warrant Officer with the nuke codes, or the commanders down the line, would be like "Yeah okay let's straight up nuke Tehran because you think they mooned our sailors." You would surely have to see the 25th Amendment come into play.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:20
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Ciaphas posted:I shitpost to distract myself from mounting stress and fear, and this thread gives me things to direct my otherwise unbinded worries at (see above tweet about white people fearing becoming minorities) come on down to cspam we've always got room for more shitposting if we keep our current acceleration we can cause a shitpost singularity and crash the entire forums
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Nov 3, 2016 01:20
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Mr.Citrus posted:Anyone else feel super sad that trumps assault accuser decided to not come forward because of death threats? I'm feeling equal parts both but recognizing I should probably feel more parts for the second piece.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:21
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Spiffster posted:Keep wheeling out the terrible news. The fact he is even a serious contender in this election is so heart breaking He's not, really. He just barely passed the 5 percent support threshold for admission into the debate (with the help of Jill Stein supporters, evidently.)
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Nov 3, 2016 01:22
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Stereotype posted:Nukes are bigger now so "nearby" (the air blast radius) goes from a mile in the case of Hiroshima to about 30 miles for a minuteman 3 The bad thing is that even with a large nuke, if you are more than a few miles away from ground zero, it will take some time for the blast wave to reach you. Time during which you will be roasting alive from the thermal effects (depending how exposed you are). That ten or twenty or thirty seconds of being KFC'ed before the blast catches up is going to suck.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:23
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Liquid Communism posted:http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/  I'm in Manhattan right now and this is...pretty discomfiting!
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Nov 3, 2016 01:24
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Ciaphas posted:I know but reason and logic flew out the loving window of my mind on the last page with that revelation on the Football From what we understand, there might be a total of 2 people in the chain of command in the military tasked with delivering the president's order to launch and who would have any chance at possibly knowing the order to launch was insane, and we'd depend on them to disobey orders and alert congress. If they salute and follow orders, the guys who actually launch the nukes don't even know if they are launching or if its yet another drill. They'd enter the code, the computer would recognize it as real, and away they go. All within 4 minutes
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Nov 3, 2016 01:24
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Edible Hat posted:He's not, really. He just barely passed the 5 percent support threshold for admission into the debate (with the help of Jill Stein supporters, evidently.) I'm starting to understand why Iron Rose doesn't like the uber Left.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:24
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freebooter posted:Theoretically the president has sole control over the football (Secdef has to confirm but cannot veto) but I just cannot believe that in practice - even if Trump stuffs his cabinet full of yesmen - the Warrant Officer with the nuke codes, or the commanders down the line, would be like "Yeah okay let's straight up nuke Tehran because you think they mooned our sailors." You would surely have to see the 25th Amendment come into play. I like to imagine that in that scenario you'd have someone punch Trump in the face out of the blue and just shout, "Are you loving KIDDING ME?"
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Nov 3, 2016 01:25
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freebooter posted:Theoretically the president has sole control over the football (Secdef has to confirm but cannot veto) but I just cannot believe that in practice - even if Trump stuffs his cabinet full of yesmen - the Warrant Officer with the nuke codes, or the commanders down the line, would be like "Yeah okay let's straight up nuke Tehran because you think they mooned our sailors." You would surely have to see the 25th Amendment come into play. There's a solid philosophical argument that in practice any given order to use nuclear weapons is definitionally insane such that any president who gives such an order is incompetent, BUT forty percent of registered voters support Trump Realistically, it just buys everyone a few minutes while Trump fires everyone who refuses the order.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:25
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freebooter posted:Theoretically the president has sole control over the football (Secdef has to confirm but cannot veto) but I just cannot believe that in practice - even if Trump stuffs his cabinet full of yesmen - the Warrant Officer with the nuke codes, or the commanders down the line, would be like "Yeah okay let's straight up nuke Tehran because you think they mooned our sailors." You would surely have to see the 25th Amendment come into play. Well we know from earlier conversations that the submarine nukes are kept in the dark about whether or not codes they get are real or a drill. So apparently they repeatedly receive codes and go through the procedure as if it was real, except that no missiles launch at the end. In theory they wouldn't know until they started hearing missiles launching. Does the launch have to go through anyone else or is it from the football direct to the launchers?
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Nov 3, 2016 01:25
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Here's your general, evergreen, all-purpose anti-Arzy when it comes to 538: despite his name recognition, Nate Silver is not the only person doing what he does, and the other aggregators aren't exactly amateurs either. Here's what all the bigwigs say about Clinton's chances: PEC: 99% HuffPost: 98% NYT: 87% 538: 68% Mean: 88% Median: 92.5% Silver is baking some assumptions into his model about potential polling error, which may indicate that he's extra prescient and has an edge over the rest, or it could mean he's needlessly underestimating the quality of polls. Either way, he's staking his reputation on being an outlier right now, and your level of panic should be proportionate to whether you think he's correct to be out on that limb.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:26
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https://twitter.com/rachaelmbade/status/793962977267425280 do it https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/793964471890886656 they all bend the knee.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:26
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Saw this trending on Facebook today. Apparently, if you are Catholic and want the best chance to get away with child molestation, move to Louisiana. A judge decided that priests are not mandatory reporters because confession is supposed to be kept confidential. http://deadstate.org/louisiana-supreme-court-rules-that-priests-dont-have-to-report-evidence-of-child-abuse-to-police/ quote:Laws that require people to report evidence of child abuse or neglect are standard in almost every U.S. state.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:26
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Number_6 posted:The bad thing is that even with a large nuke, if you are more than a few miles away from ground zero, it will take some time for the blast wave to reach you. Time during which you will be roasting alive from the thermal effects (depending how exposed you are). That ten or twenty or thirty seconds of being KFC'ed before the blast catches up is going to suck. Aka the dream sequence in terminator 2
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Nov 3, 2016 01:26
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Thanks to this thread, I am now better able to imagine, in great detail, my own death by nuclear fire via a Trump presidency. Really helping the anxiety.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:27
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freebooter posted:Theoretically the president has sole control over the football (Secdef has to confirm but cannot veto) but I just cannot believe that in practice - even if Trump stuffs his cabinet full of yesmen - the Warrant Officer with the nuke codes, or the commanders down the line, would be like "Yeah okay let's straight up nuke Tehran because you think they mooned our sailors." You would surely have to see the 25th Amendment come into play. Now combine somebody who 1. is the kind of person to welcome Trump anyways, 2. has been trained to directly execute orders. I mean, maybe the soldiers who have to actually execute the launch are all chill dudes with reasonable political opinions. But, do you think so? Koalas March posted:I'm so loving pissed. Anyone who posted in the last thread admitting to donating money should get probated until the election. you literally helped to fun the disenfranchisement of black voters. And yall better not come up in here and start bitching about black turn out, you sanctimonious fucks If you go low, you're them.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:28
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GI_Clutch posted:Saw this trending on Facebook today. Apparently, if you are Catholic and want the best chance to get away with child molestation, move to Louisiana. A judge decided that priests are not mandatory reporters because confession is supposed to be kept confidential. I'm not sure anywhere requires priests or attorneys to be mandated reporters. The seal of the confessional is actually kindof a big deal. edit: ok I'm wrong priests are mandated reporters in some states but usually the actual confessional booth is exempted. They're just required to report what they hear outside of confessions. At first I thought this was somethign the priest learned of during confession but it sounds like it wasnt? Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 01:31 on Nov 3, 2016 |
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Nov 3, 2016 01:29
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This would mean Pelosi would be Speaker, Right?
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Nov 3, 2016 01:28
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wilderthanmild posted:Well we know from earlier conversations that the submarine nukes are kept in the dark about whether or not codes they get are real or a drill. So apparently they repeatedly receive codes and go through the procedure as if it was real, except that no missiles launch at the end. In theory they wouldn't know until they started hearing missiles launching. Does the launch have to go through anyone else or is it from the football direct to the launchers? Goes through the general/admiral and then direct to the base commandant/sub captain IIRC then to the launchers. So two people
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Nov 3, 2016 01:29
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I'll believe it when I see it. They claimed they were going to dump  way back when and they've been calling Ryan a RINO basically since he became Speaker, but they never do anything about it.EDIT: BigRed0427 posted:This would mean Pelosi would be Speaker, Right?
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Nov 3, 2016 01:31
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smug n stuff posted:Finally got around to voting! +1 for HRC in the hotly contested swing state of Oregon. Same!
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Nov 3, 2016 01:31
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Cingulate posted:They go low, you go high. They go low again, you go high again. Giving transphobic racists money isn't going high.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:32
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Supercar Gautier posted:Silver is baking some assumptions into his model about potential polling error, which may indicate that he's extra prescient and has an edge over the rest, or it could mean he's needlessly underestimating the quality of polls. Either way, he's staking his reputation on being an outlier right now, and your level of panic should be proportionate to whether you think he's correct to be out on that limb. He actually isn't. If Clinton wins by exactly the margin we expect and exactly the states we expect, that doesn't prove his uncertainty wrong. We'd need a hundred years of elections to have enough data to know that he's being too careful. Protecting his reputation is why some of us suspect he's doing this. Oddly enough, it takes a hundred years to prove him wrong, but it only takes one shocking night to completely vindicate him.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:32
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The only reason any of you know anything about nukes is because Clinton exposed our nuclear secrets at the third debate.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:32
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BigRed0427 posted:This would mean Pelosi would be Speaker, Right? People were thinking this when Boehner resigned - it's not going to happen unless the Republican party actually fractures
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Nov 3, 2016 01:33
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Cingulate posted:They go low, you go high. They go low again, you go high again. Failure to act against something is tacit support of it. loving sending money to it is definitely support of it. When that party literally has a platform of disenfranchisement and opposition of human rights, supporting it is supporting the undermining of democracy and human rights. There's a loving reason Germany's democracy has means to defend itself.
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