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spacetoaster posted:You're doing pretty well for lowtax. oh wow, that's a thing?
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Nov 3, 2016 18:35
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Until we have adequate public transportation everywhere, yearly vehicle inspections would be another way to deepen inequality.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:35
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even in states like colorado or florida where a third to a half of people have already voted, drawing a reasonable conclusion from that when theres still significant collections of rural and other areas that haven't done much voting yet would be, i imagine, very annoying nevada's a little different because instead of talking about 50% we're talking closer to 70%, and even then hillary's pretty good lead of something like +5 is going to narrow a few points once all the rural votes come in
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Nov 3, 2016 18:36
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Instant Sunrise posted:Missouri goons, Trump is leading the presidential race on 538, but Jason Kander is projected to win by a hairsbreadth, what would the thought process be of somebody voting for Trump and Kander on the same ballot? "I hate them drat Washington politicians. I want a straight-talker who tells it like it is!"
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Nov 3, 2016 18:36
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sean10mm posted:Nate's model is what it has been forever, as far as we know. Nate Silver? More like Nate Bronze. 
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Nov 3, 2016 18:36
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https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794225424498688001 I don't know if I fully understand everything in that article, but it seems like pretty good anti-arzy material.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:37
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Crain posted:oh wow, that's a thing? Yeah, don't know who's it is. Also, it appears to be hit or miss. I've had a lot of AVs, but I think my recent ban erased them all? I don't know.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:37
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WeAreTheRomans posted:I mean the current av incarnation isn't that bad. It's just some dude, who appears to have Downs, but is also happy and waving and looks pretty chill, and the message is positive. Not even any text telling you to kill yourself. I say just roll with it for a while As TB pointed out yesterday he's Special Olympian John Franklin Stephens the person that wrote a kind letter to Ann Coulter explaining why it's wrong to use the word "retard" as an insult. Of course she responded as you'd expect. Here is his letter. https://specialolympicsblog.wordpress.com/2012/10/23/an-open-letter-to-ann-coulter/ The fact people are using that as an insult avatar is pretty awful since that dude has done a lot more good than most people here.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:37
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Covok posted:Nate Silver? More like Nate Bronze. I favor the golden Wang myself. 
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Nov 3, 2016 18:37
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SamuraiFoochs posted:-Early voting is STRONG, and generally favors the big D.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:38
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Chelb posted:yeah. Right. We don't actually know how those people voted, only that people with registration this and that early voted. There could be a large number of Republican ticket-splitters in the Florida early vote for all we know. Trying to draw trends based on party affiliation and previous cycles when your sample size of elections is tiny is just asking for trouble. Oh and the GOP keeps loving with the early voting rules.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:37
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FactsAreUseless posted:So what's it like having early voting for a mom?
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Nov 3, 2016 18:38
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PerniciousKnid posted:How quickly do cars disintegrate, though? Might dependva lot on the state. Things like tough winters with lots of road salt usage nay make it last less.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:38
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For whatever reason Nate's model seems to put a lot of stock in the belief that as goes Missouri so goes the nation. Missouri polls regularly drown out polls from Florida and North Carolina.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:39
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I will say about Nate Silver that I don't understand what the point of the "polls plus" model is. It's rarely radically different than Polls Only and it reacts REALLY weirdly.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:39
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Crow Jane posted:I'm for it. It just ensures that if an appointee dies while in office, or leaves for whatever reason, the governor has to fill the position with someone from the same party as the person who left. Seeing as how we keep electing Republican governors, having something like that in place seems like a good thing. Well when you get Democrats like Carcetti as governor.... This is a good thing voting initiative, Minnesota should have that on the books.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:39
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FactsAreUseless posted:So what's it like having early voting for a mom?  (That gave me a chuckle, thanks.)
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Nov 3, 2016 18:39
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theflyingorc posted:I will say about Nate Silver that I don't understand what the point of the "polls plus" model is. It's rarely radically different than Polls Only and it reacts REALLY weirdly. Polls plus includes economic indicators and (either because of the okayish economy or as an added feature) a stronger assumption that polls will revert towards the mean. Farther out from election day it's a little more conservative in giving strong predictions one way or the other; this close to the election it's essentially obsolete.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:40
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Crain posted:oh wow, that's a thing? I have had way more avs than i remember
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Nov 3, 2016 18:40
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I've read the name Arzy a billion times in these threads, could I make a small request? Could someone quote a sample of his madness from 2012?
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Nov 3, 2016 18:41
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Crain posted:It's a wash. Crow Jane posted:I'm for it. It just ensures that if an appointee dies while in office, or leaves for whatever reason, the governor has to fill the position with someone from the same party as the person who left. Seeing as how we keep electing Republican governors, having something like that in place seems like a good thing. Cool, that jives with my thinking. And considering our weird
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Nov 3, 2016 18:43
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Agrajag posted:
Did you know you can still vote for Hillary but think she is not the best person we could have chosen?
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Nov 3, 2016 18:43
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Another question for MD goons: how are you voting on the referendum to let vendors sell near Rash Field in the harbor? I'm kinda torn. On the one hand, more jobs are always good. On the other, there are already tons of places to eat around there, and it'd be nice to have just one area of the harbor that's relatively chill. Plus it might be nice to encourage growth in other areas of the city instead?
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Nov 3, 2016 18:43
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Jonas Albrecht posted:I've read the name Arzy a billion times in these threads, could I make a small request? Could someone quote a sample of his madness from 2012? Go back two threads and read CS. Now you have experienced Arzy in a nutshell. It's a dumb in joke name for concern trolling about electoral politics.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:44
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The 2008 election was where Arzy was doing his thing. There wasn't anything really notable about it, he just wouldn't stop freaking out over anything remotely negative for Obama, all the time.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:44
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Sorus posted:Speaking of, MD Goons, how do you feel about Question 1? Good thing, bad thing? Meh thing? Yeah, I'm pretty meh about it, probably will vote yes for it just to give Hogan a 'gently caress you'
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Nov 3, 2016 18:44
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Jonas Albrecht posted:I've read the name Arzy a billion times in these threads, could I make a small request? Could someone quote a sample of his madness from 2012? 2012 was him being a smug dick about Romney winning. He got a job in finance between 08 and 12 and flamed out basically the same way Boosted did between 12 and 16. 08 was primo Arzy freakout.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:44
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Feral Integral posted:Yeah, I'm pretty meh about it, probably will vote yes for it just to give Hogan a 'gently caress you' Why is Hogan so popular?
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Nov 3, 2016 18:44
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Would Romney win against Hillary?
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Nov 3, 2016 18:46
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Crain posted:Yeah. That whole "Freestate Project" flopped hard and the Libertarians there basically just turned into bitter Republicans (they were always bitter republicans). I actually used to listen to Free Talk Live a lot, and thought it was a good idea back in my early 20s, but then I wandered onto their forums and HOLY poo poo it was a cesspool of outright racism and sharing of stormfront links unironically. So nope gently caress that.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:47
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Covok posted:Would Romney win against Hillary? Would James Bond win against Indiana Jones?
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Nov 3, 2016 18:47
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Lead out in cuffs posted:https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794225424498688001 The moneyshot: quote:----Both candidates get 90 percent of base and split indies: Clinton by 4, 29,000 votes Also, REDTUBE (yes, that redtube) held an online poll which was won by Trump 56-42.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:48
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theflyingorc posted:I will say about Nate Silver that I don't understand what the point of the "polls plus" model is. It's rarely radically different than Polls Only and it reacts REALLY weirdly. It's an experiment with adding fundamentals to the model. It's new for 2016. It had some bigger differences back in the summer but now it's not so different.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:48
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Covok posted:Would Romney win against Hillary?
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Nov 3, 2016 18:49
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would hitler win against hitler's ghost?????
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Nov 3, 2016 18:49
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Crow Jane posted:Another question for MD goons: how are you voting on the referendum to let vendors sell near Rash Field in the harbor? I'm kinda torn. On the one hand, more jobs are always good. On the other, there are already tons of places to eat around there, and it'd be nice to have just one area of the harbor that's relatively chill. Plus it might be nice to encourage growth in other areas of the city instead? That's local to your district/county. Didn't have that on my ballot. Got a dumb loving "WE SHOULD HAVE TERM LIMITS AND RULE THAT LEAVING EARLY COUNTS AS A FULL 2/3 OF A TERM" or someshit question.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:49
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Libertine posted:They are both historically weak candidates with some of the highest unpopularity numbers in history which is why I think it is close. I agree with this. This isn't because I have a particular bone to pick with Hillary. As someone who agrees with her that a lot of Americans are deplorable, I really like her. I think that the Clintons have had enough time in the spotlight that it's become difficult to continue to hide their cynical belief that most americans are too stupid to know what's good with them, or that a lot of people are backwards racists that will have to be dragged into the present, usually by smiling and agreeing with them to their faces and then quietly fixing the world behind their backs. The issue is that when the deplorables figure out that this is going on it really makes them sad because liberals are being "condescending". But the fact is we don't ask infants for permission before putting them to bed.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:49
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mcmagic posted:Why is Hogan so popular? Eastern/Southen MD is full of rich people and rednecks both of whom like to vote Republican and are mostly out-of-touch and racist
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Nov 3, 2016 18:49
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Lightning Knight posted:Man 538 is down to 65%. Where is this? I keep checking when someone mentions something similar and it never goes under 85%.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:49
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canepazzo posted:Also, REDTUBE (yes, that redtube) held an online poll which was won by Trump 56-42.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:50
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