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happyhippy posted:We should do a poll to guess what Fox News commentator/political guest will get the honor of declaring Clinton the winner. It will be Kelly. And she will relish it.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:38
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If you need more anti-arzy, Clinton's chances continue to climb in 538's forecast. She's up 1.5% from this morning, 2.5% from when I last checked last night.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:38
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I think if there's a positive to this election (besides Hillary becoming president), it's that a whole lot of stuff is in the open now. It didn't happen in a vacuum, obviously, but I think a lot of people are actually thinking about issues relating to racism and sexism more than they may have in the past. Whether that'll stick with that is up for debate, but I can't help seeing it as a positive. My eyes are certainly more open than they were a few years ago, fwiw Trump supporters are probably a lost cause, though.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:38
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Roland Jones posted:Isn't that also the Republican's fault, because increasing the number of representatives gives places like California even more power? I remember someone talking about something like that in this or the last thread. Interesting. For all that I push this argument I've never considered to see if someone has actually tried increasing the size of Congress. There was a Constitutional Amendment in the initial batch that failed by two states. It's still out there, but would need about 35 more now. Teriyaki Koinku posted:On the off-chance, do you have stats on comparable developed countries like Germany or the UK for their respective MP:constituent ratios? I'm curious but also feeling really lazy right now to look it up myself, especially after my last few effort-posts on explaining lobbying to Goons. I was looking up Iceland the other day. If we had the same ratio we'd have 60k legislators.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:39
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Harrow posted:If you need more anti-arzy, Clinton's chances continue to climb in 538's forecast. She's up 1.5% from this morning, 2.5% from when I last checked last night. On the day after the election, they'll be 100%.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:39
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Combed Thunderclap posted:There's so much comedy gold in here. Imagine being the FSB/GRU officer given Trump as your assignment. At first you'd be thinking 'no way is this going to work' and jealous of your colleagues who have 'Empower far-right groups in the EU' and 'Promote Brexit', then you're being patted on the back and getting drunk as Trump wins the nomination. And then it all starts to go horribly wrong and you just know they'll be looking for a scapegoat in the future.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:38
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Axetrain posted:If those numbers are accurate thats alot more than 4 times as many. Current House = 4x Founding Senators. It's not a great comparison except that the framers anticipated Senators to be stand-offish and above the whim of the common man.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:40
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RVProfootballer posted:I also haven't carefully checked, but whoever was saying it's oscillations around a 74% Clinton win is I think seeing coincidence. The up trends were all around obvious events (convention, debates) and then as time passed those bumps faded, right? As enthusiasm waxes and wanes, different proportions of voters pass the likely voter threshold, so it isn't like the model is saying every debate converted Trump voters to Hillary and then they changed their minds back. Not sure we should read the median chances as the true probability either, though it is more reasonable than assuming 50% if those are the only options. Not exactly, bad months for Hillary like June/September took the chances down to the low 60s. Good months for Hillary took the polls to high 70s/80s The 73.4% is the mean during the downtimes with no beneficial news to either side. If the shifts in percentages were only due to positive Hillary events you would be right, but the median also considers the two times the news dropped Hillary's chances. Also, keep in mind 73.4 is only the median for 538, which has a lot of unpredictability. Medians for every other aggregate are much higher. Nate's model factors high uncertainty, but that uncertainity seems to rotate within the margin of error of the high 70s
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Nov 4, 2016 17:40
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PT6A posted:I just heard the term "Reagan Democrat" on CNN. Am I correct in assuming this is the "nice" way of saying "reprehensible rear end in a top hat white male, but one that still has the tiniest sense of shame?"
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Nov 4, 2016 17:40
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PT6A posted:I just heard the term "Reagan Democrat" on CNN. Am I correct in assuming this is the "nice" way of saying "reprehensible rear end in a top hat white male, but one that still has the tiniest sense of shame?" Bill and Hillary were Reagan Democrats who utilized triangularization (ie move Democrats to the right on policy planks like Don't Ask, Don't Tell or Protection of Marriage Act preventing gay marriage, etc) in the 90s in response to the Reagan Wave of the 80s in an attempt to gain more ground in pragmatic technocratic fashion. Well-intentioned but still ultimately awful bullshit that held the country back in different ways, including Bill's gutting of welfare in the 90s.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:40
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Crow Jane posted:I think if there's a positive to this election (besides Hillary becoming president), it's that a whole lot of stuff is in the open now. It didn't happen in a vacuum, obviously, but I think a lot of people are actually thinking about issues relating to racism and sexism more than they may have in the past. Whether that'll stick with that is up for debate, but I can't help seeing it as a positive. My eyes are certainly more open than they were a few years ago, fwiw The better part about it is that the only personality who has successfully rallied them and created this new right-wing energy is riotously toxic to everyone outside of the increasingly cloistered bubble of right wing core demographics. Now this xenophobic energy and policy is expected by the right, and GOP politicians that won't be straightforward about it and won't say the crazy poo poo that right wing nativists love ..... won't capture the same energy and won't draw that cloistered demographic out to vote in numbers that are sustainable for the GOP. They now solidly identify with toxic politics that will auto-strangle them.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:41
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CmdrRiker posted:Is it fair to defend Trump supporters as being especially susceptible to mob mentality? The argument of "People don’t normally think like this, and normally wouldn’t do/say the things they have done/said, but as Johnathan Haid said, we tend to be more surrounded by like-minded people, and I think it makes it easier for people to build upon each other," seems a bit optimistic and nice and all. And while I don't doubt that this election cycle is making some people more sexist/racist, I would like to know if there any convincing evidence to point to and say, "People were always like this, they just got a bigger voice now." Look back to the civil rights era and read the op eds put out on Martin Luther King Jr. The arguments are the same. I just reread The Feminine Mystique and boy oh boy the sexist arguments are the same. The weird poo poo about homosexuality aside, that book could have been written in 2012 and still had an impact. People like Trump have always had a voice and are just barely being told to shut the gently caress up. That's where the tantrum-like reaction comes from.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:41
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I'd like to forget about Trump as much as anyone else, but we need to make some pariahs out of people for their behavior this election cycle. This poo poo isn't going away without a fight, and humor is a great way to approach this problem.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:43
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Rabble posted:We must have the same friend because I've been trying to calm my Arzy down with the PEC and it ain't working.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:42
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Young Hegelian posted:I was looking up Iceland the other day. If we had the same ratio we'd have 60k legislators.  drat, I knew it was bad, but I didn't think it'd be that bad. Good loving luck though on getting "Big Government Bad!" Republicans ie little under half of the country's population behind increasing the size of government to that size for the greater good.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:43
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Not great poll numbers in MI and WI, but probably good enough to show Trump isn't going to cause any surprises there. https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/794578571499016192 https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/794580303436189697
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Nov 4, 2016 17:43
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^ BLURRRRRRREEEEDDDDD  ^Epic-MRA (lol that loving name) an A- pollster just put Hillary up +4 in MI
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Nov 4, 2016 17:43
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Bloops Crusts posted:Evan Bayh is now polling underwater in Indiana. GOP chances of keeping the Senate up considerably if he loses. Yeah I really hope he's not necessary to retake the senate - if so all hope is lost. I really don't understand what his appeal was supposed to be. Like, he's a dem (albeit a lovely one) and will vote the party line, that's enough for me, but to your average Indiana voter he's a sleazy lobbyist who follows the money and spent his last year in the senate exclusively job hunting. Like I hate that his Republican opponent is zeroing in on that line of criticism and is 100% correct in his assessment.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:43
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Epic MRA, run by Bernie Porn. That will never ever stop being hilarious.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:44
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Mel Mudkiper posted:^ BLURRRRRRREEEEDDDDD Michigan is red state, no?
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Nov 4, 2016 17:44
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Axetrain posted:If those numbers are accurate thats alot more than 4 times as many. Plus I'd expect the workload would scale both with the complexity and size of the nation, which would make things harder regardless.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:45
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https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/794554699924078592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw 'Panders to Urban Community', jfc.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:45
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GalacticAcid posted:I don't even want to think about Trump after this loving election. No more "Missouri will go red this year" but rather "Missouri is trumped this year" and so on.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:45
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Hillary up 5% in markets today, anything happen news or polling wise or early voting numbers? That's a large jump.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:45
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Teriyaki Koinku posted:On the off-chance, do you have stats on comparable developed countries like Germany or the UK for their respective MP:constituent ratios? I'm curious but also feeling really lazy right now to look it up myself, especially after my last few effort-posts explaining lobbying to Goons. UK: 650 MPs which is 1 for every 90k people. France (lower House): 577 députés which is 1 for every 115k people Germany: 631 in the Bundestag, which is 1 for every 120k people
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Nov 4, 2016 17:45
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Covok posted:Michigan is red state, no? No, but it was the other state in Hillary's firewall there were grumbles might be flipped
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Nov 4, 2016 17:45
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Apraxin posted:https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/794554699924078592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Translation: He's a person of color and therefore a bad role model. Yes, I'm a Trump supporter, how did you guess?
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Nov 4, 2016 17:46
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Teriyaki Koinku posted:
People who actually care about "the size of government" are a pretty small subset of actual Republicans.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:46
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Covok posted:Translation: He's a person of color and therefore a bad role model. Yes, I'm a Trump supporter, how did you guess? The Trump Pastor is black too.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:47
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RVProfootballer posted:Why would you assume 50/50 is the true mean that it would regress back to? Because there are two candidates, so absent any strong feelings about the candidates there's a 50% chance of choosing either. If you did a bunch of analysis of voter demographics and such you might determine a more refined number, but it would still be much closer to 50% than 74%. Maybe her numbers will revert up after email news fades. Maybe nobody gave a crap about emails and the numbers continue reverting down. Pretending we know one way or the other is foolish.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:48
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If you add up the legislative bodies of every state you get 7383 people. Yet we let 535 run the whole country.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:47
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Admiral Ray posted:Look back to the civil rights era and read the op eds put out on Martin Luther King Jr. The arguments are the same. I just reread The Feminine Mystique and boy oh boy the sexist arguments are the same. The weird poo poo about homosexuality aside, that book could have been written in 2012 and still had an impact. People like Trump have always had a voice and are just barely being told to shut the gently caress up. That's where the tantrum-like reaction comes from. Thanks, that was my argument as well. There is something to be said for adhering to mob mentality and just having a larger voice in a disgruntled and crumbling major political party.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:47
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5436 posted:Hillary up 5% in markets today, anything happen news or polling wise or early voting numbers? That's a large jump. I'm pretty sure the huge fall for Hillary in the prediction markets was people trying to get good odds on a trump win, when it'd been favoring Hillary for a while. Now that it's looking like the Trump-trend has halted, you have people who are convinced Hillary will win taking advantage of better bets than previously.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:48
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http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/03/dc-attorney-fbi-agents-working-to-expose-top-doj-officials/quote:DC Attorney: FBI Agents Working To Expose Top DOJ Officials
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Nov 4, 2016 17:48
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Jay-Z flaunts his ability to skirt the law and objectifies women by their appearance while bragging frequently about his sexual conquests. He also frequently advertises his wealth and is known to get into long drawn out feuds with other media figures. Clearly Trump is right, no one like that should be admired jk Hova rules
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Nov 4, 2016 17:49
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5436 posted:Hillary up 5% in markets today, anything happen news or polling wise or early voting numbers? That's a large jump. Lots of good polls, narrative from Nevada early voting is that it's basically impossible for her to lose there.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:48
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5436 posted:Hillary up 5% in markets today, anything happen news or polling wise or early voting numbers? That's a large jump. PPP came out with a bunch of good numbers for Hillary in several swing states, and early voting in Nevada has pretty much clinched the state for her.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:50
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PST posted:UK: 650 MPs which is 1 for every 90k people. You're doing the lord's work.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:50
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I mean that's actually a smart line of attack. I am loving shocked that the conservatives haven't been pushing the hell out of the fact that Hillary was having Pusha on the campaign trail with Tim Kaine. Like seriously quote:(Yough!) Make your skin crawl Like Obama caught hell for having loving Common do stuff with him.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:50
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Harrow posted:If you need more anti-arzy, Clinton's chances continue to climb in 538's forecast. She's up 1.5% from this morning, 2.5% from when I last checked last night. ALl we need now is to lock Werner in a closet for the weekend
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Nov 4, 2016 17:50
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