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I'm about to just stop checking 538 at this point.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:19
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what i meant to say is that you are all hosed and the next president will be the fat mean man
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Nov 4, 2016 20:19
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Mr. Belding posted:I think this is a drastic simplification of what people who don't support free trade across the board are asking for. There are lots of good arguments for free trade helping increase productivity and put more good stuff in the world. That doesn't necessarily mean that I selfishly get that good stuff. I am saying that I want my government to act as a company that I own stock in (I get paid in motherfucking USD after all). One way to do this is to use advantages such as gouging for market access. You have to leave just enough meat on the bone that the buyer is willing to pay for it, like with anything. But if you are selling out of product, it means you aren't charging enough. That's us. Right now. Money left on the table all day every day and Detroit burning down because of it. Do poor people also get to own stock in USCorp, under your plan? Gouging for market access DNE any good results-again I urge you to look up Smoot-Hawley and the repercussions thereof-but please keep giving that folksy common sense simple analysis. It's not like bi and multilateral trade deals are super complex with tons of man hours of highly specialized people working on them. Clearly tariffs just aren't high enough, thank you. Detroit burned down for labor because of automation, not NAFTA.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:20
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RVProfootballer posted:I don't know about others, but I'm trying to suggest that these aren't monolithic "better than" and "worse than" judgments. You would rather be a homosexual in ancient Greece than in multiple countries in Africa and the Middle East today. You would rather be Jewish in ancient Rome than in Europe almost anytime in the past 1000 years. You would rather be an atheist in France in the 1790s than in the deep south in America today. For a less socially charged area, I suspect it won't be a long term phenomenon (please please), but declining basic scientific literacy and trust in science is another example where we are at risk of regressing. Etc etc. Having a steadily improving life expectancy does not negate other ways in which we have or have not made progress. Actually being a Jew in the Roman empire was pretty bad too. See several suppressed revolts and the enormous body counts attached. Being a Jew at almost any time in history has been pretty bad. Their history is caught in a constant cycle of being suppressed, enslaved and exterminated.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:20
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Just so you know, today a bunch of polls came out - and no joke like 75% of them had (R) next to their name on Ppollingnumbers. In other words, a TON of today's polls are ones with known Republican associations, Rasmussen-by-another-name. Use caution.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:20
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I'm arzying should wordfilter to I'm thinking Arzy's
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Nov 4, 2016 20:22
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Fojar38 posted:I'm about to just stop checking 538 at this point. Bunch of great battleground polls come out: Clinton inches up 1.5% Trump up in a bunch of deep red states: Clinton plummets 4% Nate Shook. Nate is a mess.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:21
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Ice Phisherman posted:Actually being a Jew in the Roman empire was pretty bad too. See several suppressed revolts and the enormous body counts attached. What a stirring and linear march of progress.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:21
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theflyingorc posted:Just so you know, today a bunch of polls came out - and no joke like 75% of them had (R) next to their name on Ppollingnumbers. 538 has a bunch of bad Florida polls with A ratings and that worries me
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Nov 4, 2016 20:22
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Fojar38 posted:538 has a bunch of bad Florida polls with A ratings and that worries me http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/04/sound-bites-and-bug-bites/ Sam Wang is not a man who threatens to eat bugs lightly
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Nov 4, 2016 20:23
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Impeachment wouldn't make it past the Senate. Removal from office requires a 66-vote supermajority. That isn't going to happen.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:24
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Ice Phisherman posted:Actually being a Jew in the Roman empire was pretty bad too. See several suppressed revolts and the enormous body counts attached. It's weird growing up Jewish, because you learn about a lot of this stuff and your mind is pretty firmly set as "Jews are the underdogs" and then you grow up and realize plucky li'l Israel is doing some terrible poo poo too and now you don't know how to feel. 
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Nov 4, 2016 20:24
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:ACAB "A few bad apples" was probably not the best phrase to use when attempting to defend the police here.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:24
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Fojar38 posted:538 has a bunch of bad Florida polls with A ratings and that worries me uh...no it doesn't? http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/ The two most recent seem to have Clinton up?
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Nov 4, 2016 20:24
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Funny that the parody pundit probably has one of the most accurate prediction maps out there. https://twitter.com/carl_diggler/status/794593763381379072
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Nov 4, 2016 20:25
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Ice Phisherman posted:Actually being a Jew in the Roman empire was pretty bad too. See several suppressed revolts and the enormous body counts attached. To be fair, the Jewish population kind of brought it onto themselves by not acquiescing and paying lip service to the emperor and calling him divine. It's not like the Romans were intolerant of other religions.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:25
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Teriyaki Koinku posted:Side note: I think 'the Klu Klux Klutz' is a great petty nickname for Trump. sounds like the title of a lost episode of the three stooges where they travel to indiana to join a businessmans' luncheon
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Nov 4, 2016 20:26
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Groovelord Neato posted:cry me a loving river. wh-what? who's crying? I think it's disappointing when people use the term "retard". I do it too, but I try not to and I'm getting better. And I think the word filters are funny sometimes. Don't know why u mad
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Nov 4, 2016 20:26
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Martha Stewart Undying posted:So long as you weren't in the mines or on the farms of some lovely owner, life as a Roman slave wasn't too awful. Just the vague awfulness that comes from being stolen from your homeland, transported to some foreign territory, and forced to shed any and all vestiges of your former cultural identity. Why do people always forget sex slavery? I don't think getting raped every night by your johns or rich owner is necessarily a better life than dying in the mine. Roman slavery sucked for the same reason American colonial slavery sucked. It was possibly a more stable institution because some slaves could get some measure of freedom if their masters felt like it. Most never did. Many were thrown into mines, galleys and brothels and live short miserable lives there.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:26
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Donkwich posted:I'm arzying should wordfilter to I'm thinking Arzy's  My thoughts exactly.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:26
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Nonsense posted:I think it should wordfilter to Racist, because that's who he was. Nahh, mod should be word filtered to racist. 
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Nov 4, 2016 20:26
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:A. That was a Simpsons quote Fojar38 posted:I'm about to just stop checking 538 at this point. 
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Nov 4, 2016 20:27
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xthetenth posted:It's not a guarantee, it's a victory pried bit by bit from the fingertips of people opposing it.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:26
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Lemming posted:http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/04/sound-bites-and-bug-bites/ Uh does anybody know if Sam Wang likes bugs I mean maybe he thinks Trump will win so he gets to indulge in his favorite treat before falling into eternal dispair
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Nov 4, 2016 20:27
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The Shortest Path posted:If you were a personal slave to a rich person, sure, but the modern narrative likes to conveniently ignore the mine slaves that were literally thrown into a dark hole and forced to work until they died. Seriously, this. The poo poo they find scratched into mine walls is chilling as hell.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:28
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there wolf posted:Why do people always forget sex slavery? I don't think getting raped every night by your johns or rich owner is necessarily a better life than dying in the mine. Roman slavery sucked for the same reason American colonial slavery sucked. It was possibly a more stable institution because some slaves could get some measure of freedom if their masters felt like it. Most never did. Many were thrown into mines, galleys and brothels and live short miserable lives there. Nah, man. You can't compare Roman slavery to Transatlantic slavery. For one, there was no real racial component to Roman slavery, for another it wasn't chattel slavery. Sex slavery always is awful, though.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:28
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Ice Phisherman posted:Actually being a Jew in the Roman empire was pretty bad too. See several suppressed revolts and the enormous body counts attached. In the BCE years, it was an officially legal religion and afaik there was not any systematic persecution. I believe the Jewish revolts were more about political power, but am not an expert. That seems qualitatively different than later persecutory anti-Semitism. Edit: That said, we're straying pretty far from USPol haha. Happy to hear if I have any of that wrong because I am absolutely not an expert, but probably otherwise fits in a history thread so I'll shut up about it 
sourdough fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Nov 4, 2016 |
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Nov 4, 2016 20:28
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A Winner is Jew posted:Nahh, mod should be word filtered to racist. Dunk'd A lovely Reporter posted:Hell, pretty sure I was guilty of it at some point with gfsincere. Now he's up there with you for good posting. Dunk'd... my heart 
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Nov 4, 2016 20:28
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FactsAreUseless posted:I got rid of the word filters. Can we get a word filter to replace word filter with censorship golem.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:28
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Martha Stewart Undying posted:To be fair, the Jewish population kind of brought it onto themselves by not acquiescing and paying lip service to the emperor and calling him divine. It's not like the Romans were intolerant of other religions. They also would have known drat well what happened to people who did decide to fight the Romans. Caesar's massacres in Gaul had already occurred.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:28
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Martha Stewart Undying posted:To be fair, the Jewish population kind of brought it onto themselves by not acquiescing and paying lip service to the emperor and calling him divine. It's not like the Romans were intolerant of other religions. Yes as did the Christians. But then for some reason we are supposed to love the Principate. Also the Roman Slavery System was brutal enough during the later republic to see three rebellions. Crowsbeak fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Nov 4, 2016 |
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Nov 4, 2016 20:29
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weekly font posted:Bunch of great battleground polls come out: Clinton inches up 1.5% It makes sense if you understand the methodology. One of 538's core conceits is that state polls don't move independent of one another; all of the states are correlated to some extent. If a bunch of good polls come up for Trump in Georgia and South Carolina, for example, that means he's probably also doing well in North Carolina.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:29
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I'm sure this has been discussed before, but does anyone have a list of reasons why 538 is overly pessimistic? Nate's base assumptions seem pretty reasonable so I'm wondering what the problem is
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Nov 4, 2016 20:29
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Lol the news is just showing a little excerpt from a Trump rally, and he's kind doing this slumpy lean with his jacket unbuttoned and his gut hanging way out. Don is a mess
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Nov 4, 2016 20:29
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Crowsbeak posted:Yes as did the Christians. But then for some reason we are supposed to love the Principate. The Julio-Claudian dynasty is great to read about is why.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:30
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Koyaanisgoatse posted:I'm sure this has been discussed before, but does anyone have a list of reasons why 538 is overly pessimistic? Nate's base assumptions seem pretty reasonable so I'm wondering what the problem is I think one of the big things is the adjustment for house effect. Stats-knowers seem to think that overcompensates and adds noise to the data
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Nov 4, 2016 20:31
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stone cold posted:Do poor people also get to own stock in USCorp, under your plan? Of course, because what's the point of democratic socialist super state if you don't spend your hard earned dollars on social programs, education, and infrastructure. And robot cars. quote:Gouging for market access DNE any good results-again I urge you to look up Smoot-Hawley and the repercussions thereof-but please keep giving that folksy common sense simple analysis. It's not like bi and multilateral trade deals are super complex with tons of man hours of highly specialized people working on them. Clearly tariffs just aren't high enough, thank you. If you think that I'm saying "raise all tariffs" then the problem is you. Your response isn't any better than someone saying "why not make the minimum wage a billion dollars and we'll all be rich!?" Is a 20% across the board tariff too high? I'm sure it is. Are some tariffs currently too high? I'd guarantee it. Does that mean that tariffs aren't an important part of a protectionist economy? Of course not. There are a lot of very smart people who think that bilateral elimination of tariffs is the perfect policy, but they all have equally smart counterparts who are skeptical. It also depends on end goals. Like I said, I'm not interested in trading away the american standard of living advantage, in part because doing so has helped make Donald Trump.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:30
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Koyaanisgoatse posted:I'm sure this has been discussed before, but does anyone have a list of reasons why 538 is overly pessimistic? Nate's base assumptions seem pretty reasonable so I'm wondering what the problem is Here's a good answer http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/ quote:Why use 1972 as the starting point? It happens to make for a logical breakpoint because 1972 marked the start of the modern primary era, when nominees were chosen in a series of caucuses and primaries instead of by party elders.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:31
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PRESIDENT TRUMP FINAL ADVISORY NUMBER 666 NWS TPC/NATIONAL ELECTION CENTER MIAMI FL 0200 AM SUN NOV 6 2016 A MASSIVE DISASTER, NAY, A TITANIC BLACK MASS OF DESTRUCTION, BORN OF THE COLD, EVIL WOMB OF POLITICS, WILL RENDER MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA A BARREN WASTELAND. TRUMP IS COMING. SUCH IS THE INSANITY OF THIS ELECTION, IF INDEED, ANYTHING DISPENSING THIS AMOUNT OF HUMAN SUFFERING CAN BE CALLED A ELECTION. THE WALL, ONCE PREDICTED AT 35 FEET, WILL NOW REACH UNHEARD OF HEIGHTS. IT WILL BE AS IF THE EARTH ITSELF HAS VACATED IT'S VAST PRISON, SHAKING LOOSE HER CHAINS, AND LAYING ITSELF PRONE BETWEEN THE CITIES OF MAN. THE LAST VESTIGES OF IT'S BONDAGE CRUSHING ALL THAT LIES IN IT'S PATH. ALL SOCIAL STRUCTURES WITHIN A 1000 MILE RADIUS WILL SUFFER DEVASTATING EFFECTS. HOPE WILL SPLINTER, FAITH WILL BECOME DUST. THE BILLBOARDS WILL BE THE STARK REMNANTS OF HUMAN EXISTENCE IN THESE AREAS. FAMILIES WILL BECOME UPROOTED AND CARRIED MILES BY DEPLORABLES THAT WILL BLAST THE VERY LIFE FROM ANYONE FOOLISH ENOUGH TO REMAIN OUTSIDE. BUT THEY WILL BE THE LUCKY ONES...THE FIRST TO DIE. FOR A MUCH GREATER MISERY AWAITS THOSE THAT SURVIVE. AMIDST THIS MIRE OF CARNAGE, THE FEW SURVIVORS WILL WALLOW IN A SOUP OF DEATH AND DESPAIR, AS THEY FACE GRIM ODDS. FEW FREEDOMS WILL EXIST, AND FOOD AND WATER WILL BE MORE PRECIOUS THAN GOLD. AS CORPSES OF HUMANS AND ANIMALS ROT, HATRED AND DESPAIR WILL BEGIN THEIR MACABRE DANCE AMONG THOSE REMAINING AND MANY WILL BE FORCED TO CONSUME ONE ANOTHER TO LIVE ONE FINAL DAY. ENTIRE GENERATIONS WILL PERISH, AND THE PRESIDENT WILL CREEP INTO LEGEND. IT WILL BE A SIN TO EVEN CALL HIS NAME ALOUD, THE VERY EXISTENCE OF THIS EVENT BEING SPOKEN OF IN HUSHED TONES, AND REVERED BY THOSE WHO SEE IT AS JUDGMENT. TRUMP IS HERE. TRUMP IS HERE. TRUMP IS HERE. TRUMP IS HERE. TRUMP IS H
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Nov 4, 2016 20:31
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TheScott2K posted:I was all excited for a Thai Surf Rock derail and we ended up having a diet derail instead. Going way back but go check out the documentary Don't Think I've Forgotten about rock and surf music in Cambodia before the Khmer Rouge took over. It will make you legit cry but you'll also become a gigantic Sinn Sissamouth fan.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:32
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