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Martha Stewart Undying posted:Ehhhhh, kind of. Slaves occupied an incredibly lovely legal and social place. For instance, you couldn't take the testimony of a slave unless it was given under torture because you know them slaves and their penchant for lying!
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Nov 4, 2016 20:59
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Spaced God posted:Meanwhile, I posted this like 5 pages ago but I think it got lost in dietchat 
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Nov 4, 2016 20:59
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Spacebump posted:Don't more people vote on election day and isn't Trump expected to attract a lot of voters that don't normally vote? People that don't normally vote but decide to randomly are more likely to vote on election day. Nevada and Florida, at least, have huge fractions of their vote happening early. I think most states with lots of early voting in 2012 had >1/3 of their votes cast early. I think Nevada was 2/3? And no, as has been mentioned, the only evidence we have is that a lot of Hispanic voters and others that are either first time voters or only voted in one of the last three presidential elections (which would filter them out of most polls of likely voters) are turning out for Hillary.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:00
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Martha Stewart Undying posted:Ehhhhh, kind of. Slaves occupied an incredibly lovely legal and social place. For instance, you couldn't take the testimony of a slave unless it was given under torture because you know them slaves and their penchant for lying! Yeah i dont think anybody would argue otherwise, just that being a slave in a latifudia is living in 20 tons of poo poo, as opposed to a georgia plantation which is 60 tons.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:59
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Martha Stewart Undying posted:Ehhhhh, kind of. Slaves occupied an incredibly lovely legal and social place. For instance, you couldn't take the testimony of a slave unless it was given under torture because you know them slaves and their penchant for lying! I don't mean legally. Again, "different" =/= "one is good and one is bad." White Americans did not think black Americans were homo sapiens. That is an important distinction that is too easily ignored.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:59
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edit: Did TB's TB just get smaller? Like I know it shrank within the last week or two. I mean just now.cyphr555 posted:I posted this like 5 pages ago but I think it got lost in dietchat gotta post your height and weight on one side of the info and a diet tip on the other side.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:00
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Spacebump posted:Don't more people vote on election day and isn't Trump expected to attract a lot of voters that don't normally vote? People that don't normally vote but decide to randomly are more likely to vote on election day. Clinton's already slaughtering it in unlikely voters in early voting.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:01
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WampaLord posted:Trump's entire GOTV was saying "Ya gotta register" once or twice at his rallies, which I'm sure got forgotten between beers 4 and 5 when the deplorables got home that night. This is unfair. There was also the time they actually organised buses to go to early voting stations but they didn't arrive until hours after the event and ended up taking literally 12 people to a station.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:01
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cyphr555 posted:I posted this like 5 pages ago but I think it got lost in dietchat Oh dang, sorry I didn't see it else I would've quoted it! For real though, is this is the first time a candidate has had a loving restraining order put against them?
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Nov 4, 2016 21:01
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AriadneThread posted:this is my chance to promote the ancient world podcast, the current segment bloodlines, starting around episode 13 we end up in judea and the next couple episodes focuses on the history of the area under the roman empire Awesome, I will check it out. I have hit most of the usual recommendations for history podcasts, but haven't found a lot I love.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:02
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Bloops Crusts posted:It's not the case that Silver's model is "out of whack" with the rest of the models. It simply expresses a lot more uncertainty about the outcome, which manifests as a higher probability of winning for the candidate behind in the polls and a lower probability for the candidate out front. Also very asymmetric (and for the GOP, unorthodox) GOTV operations and both camps targeting non-traditional voters. You can argue whether 538 has modeled uncertainty properly. (The t-distribution seems reasonable; the state-correlation may or may not be; the relative lack of poll curation seems unwise.) But I find it hard to argue there isn't good reason to be uncertain.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:02
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:I don't mean legally. Again, "different" =/= "one is good and one is bad." White Americans did not think black Americans were homo sapiens. That is an important distinction that is too easily ignored. Well that can't be right. If they didn't think they were homo sapiens why would they give them names like toby? 
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Nov 4, 2016 21:02
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Spaced God posted:https://twitter.com/ericmichel/status/794569014311723008 Goddamn, the number of people taking this tweet seriously even with his obvious over the top replies. 
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Nov 4, 2016 21:02
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QuarkJets posted:Sure but it's also true that Roman slavery was in fact chattel slavery Depends on the time period and location and type of slave. There were plenty of slaves through Roman history that weren't part of chattel slavery, as well as plenty that were.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:02
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RVProfootballer posted:Nevada and Florida, at least, have huge fractions of their vote happening early. I think most states with lots of early voting in 2012 had >1/3 of their votes cast early. I think Nevada was 2/3? This thread is my security blanket for the next few days. Thanks everyone for assuaging my fears with logic and facts.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:03
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Spacebump posted:Don't more people vote on election day and isn't Trump expected to attract a lot of voters that don't normally vote? People that don't normally vote but decide to randomly are more likely to vote on election day. 69% of Nevada's vote in 2012 was early voting rather than election day, and more than half of the state's active voters have already voted. Also the biggest demographics in "people who don't normally vote" are young people and minorities, both of which usually go heavily Democrat.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:03
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Skinty McEdger posted:This is unfair. There was also the time they actually organised buses to go to early voting stations but they didn't arrive until hours after the event and ended up taking literally 12 people to a station. Hahahahahaha, yes, I forgot about that.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:04
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ImpAtom posted:It's largely this. Even if logically Nate Silver's prediction means Clinton will probably still win nobody wants to acknowledge how frigging terrifyingly close it is. No, it is not. PEC and Drew Linzer have been historically more accurate than Nate. Nate has a proprietary model that includes things that have not been linked to greater accuracy in the past, but that lead to greater volatility. PEC and Linzer have models with code available for public inspection. As David Rothschild outright says, Nate is a journalist that lives on page views. Within the last 5 weeks Nate's model has ranged from 54.8% to 88.1% in favor of Clinton, despite pollster.com never having the race closer than 3% and even RCP's heavily curated aggregate never having it closer than 1.5%. A statistical model that changes that drastically based on so little change is useless as a predictor. Note that Linzer and PEC were more accurate in 2012 based on their day of election forecast. If you went back and looked at things one month out, Nate would have fared even worse.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:04
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greatn posted:Why are you so hostile? It's inevitable things are better in the world than ancient Rome. That doesn't seem like a controversial statement. Because you're like the 90th person to waltz in here in the last month and tell all the minority posters "hey racism isn't so bad stop getting mad" and when you're rightly called on it you start whining about it instead of listening to them.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:05
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Julio Cruz posted:69% of Nevada's vote in 2012 was early voting rather than election day Nice.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:06
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axeil posted:Because you're like the 90th person to waltz in here in the last month and tell all the minority posters "hey racism isn't so bad stop getting mad" and when you're rightly called on it you start whining about it instead of listening to them. It really is like an advent calendar of racists!
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Nov 4, 2016 21:06
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Spaced God posted:Meanwhile, This election is surreal.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:06
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what were ancient roman get out the vote efforts like
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Nov 4, 2016 21:06
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Endorph posted:what were ancient roman get out the vote efforts like Patricians would throw crazy dope city-wide parties in an effort to get the plebs to vote for them.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:08
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No Butt Stuff posted:Yeah I figured that based on whatever they're calling Willis Tower now and the fact that everyone is wearing cubs gear. I just didn't get the joke, but I think my sense of humor has been thrown by having to deal with the biz bucks guy and his trumpisms at work this week. See, it's a joke because they're Cubs fans and the Ricketts (other than Laura) gave a lot of money to Trump even after he said lovely things about them during the primaries.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:08
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axeil posted:Because you're like the 90th person to waltz in here in the last month and tell all the minority posters "hey racism isn't so bad stop getting mad" and when you're rightly called on it you start whining about it instead of listening to them. No I'm not
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Nov 4, 2016 21:08
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Martha Stewart Undying posted:Patricians would throw crazy dope city-wide parties in an effort to get the plebs to vote for them.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:08
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Endorph posted:what were ancient roman get out the vote efforts like Bribes. Lots of Bribes.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:09
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:I don't mean legally. Again, "different" =/= "one is good and one is bad." White Americans did not think black Americans were homo sapiens. That is an important distinction that is too easily ignored. They did though. They pretended not to, but they did. Hence all the rapes and forced relationships. And using terror tactics that don't work on animals, like threatening to harm loved ones. And enacting laws against teaching slaves to read and write.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:08
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greatn posted:No I'm not Sorry, only the 79'th.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:09
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Martha Stewart Undying posted:Patricians would throw crazy dope city-wide parties in an effort to get the plebs to vote for them. Theo Epstein's winning IL then.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:09
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tadashi posted:See, it's a joke because they're Cubs fans and the Ricketts (other than Laura) gave a lot of money to Trump even after he said lovely things about them during the primaries. There we go. I didn't get that connection, just thought the guy was taking picture of obviously not rallies and posting them.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:09
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Endorph posted:what were ancient roman get out the vote efforts like 
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Nov 4, 2016 21:10
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Mr. Wiggles posted:Going way back but go check out the documentary Don't Think I've Forgotten about rock and surf music in Cambodia before the Khmer Rouge took over. It will make you legit cry but you'll also become a gigantic Sinn Sissamouth fan. Can we have this derail now? I haven't seen the movie but grabbed the soundtrack because I assiduously keep tabs on everything Dust-to-Digital puts out. It's good stuff and I was disappointed to not see the detail go in that direction because I'm always interested to hear weird hybrid music that grows out of (or as a reaction to) from the early interactions between western music and non-western music (e.g. Jaipong)
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Nov 4, 2016 21:10
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Spaced God posted:Meanwhile, How does the restraining order actually hinder Trump, Stone, etc. if it just re-specifies the "buffer zone". Is there something more than just the normal laws enforced? Is it just a chance to increase the penalties if they violate the rules of poll observing?
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Nov 4, 2016 21:10
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greatn posted:No I'm not White guys downplaying actual problems that other people face is kind of a refrain of the thread. There's not that much tolerance here for people saying things are actually totally great.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:10
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I'm 90% positive that's jesus.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:11
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:I don't mean legally. Again, "different" =/= "one is good and one is bad." White Americans did not think black Americans were homo sapiens. That is an important distinction that is too easily ignored. I don't know, I think they did know black people were human. Otherwise raping your female slaves to produce offspring, a common and established practice, would've been bestiality. Slavery in America may have been the purest expression of man's complete capacity for cruelty for his own benefit.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:12
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:There's absolutely no evidence to support the Trump campaigns belief that they are attracting previously uncommitted voters. In fact we KNOW that Hillary is bringing in tons of previously inactive Hispanics so new voters are going to help her more than him. That's the sort of poll which is really relevant, but doesn't flow into most polling aggregates at all. Unless for some reason the people lied about who they voted, those are guaranteed numbers rather than some vague notion of "likely voters".
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Nov 4, 2016 21:12
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:There's absolutely no evidence to support the Trump campaigns belief that they are attracting previously uncommitted voters. In fact we KNOW that Hillary is bringing in tons of previously inactive Hispanics so new voters are going to help her more than him. 48% of Colorado has already voted - which means Trump has to fully reverse the trend (going 52-41 back towards her) on Tuesday if early voting stopped right now. There is no way she loses Colorado now. edit: correction 48% of REGISTERED VOTERS have already voted. As the other 52% will not all vote, Trump is boned unless he beats her by like 12% on election day. Colorado is Clinton's.
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Nov 4, 2016 21:12
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