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Re: Nate and 538 I think his model is just being broken by lovely polls and a bunch of undecideds. Tracking polls, Jeff Roe, Gravis, Emerson, and 50-state Surveys should actually all just be loving ignored. Emerson is rated B by 538 but they actually think very poorly of those polls. Survey Monkey and Google polls are given a lot of weight because they have a fuckload of LV. It's all garbage anywya. I think adjusting for national trendlines is defensible. Now, I think there's really not that much volatility and we shouldn't worry too much about swings in national polls anyway, but given that 538 is "polls-only," it's a pretty good idea. I don't know much about the state correlations though. Maybe this year they're borked because Trump is so weird or we have re-aligning elecorates or what not. I just don't see why I should be worried about Wisconsin just because Selzer has Trump up 7 in Iowa. Like, I get that they're similar in some demographics, but when Marquette has Clinton up 6, I'll trust them over some vague state correlations. People got really into state correlations in the primaries and thought Wisconsin meant Trump was doomed in Indiana, but he sure wasn't. As for the polls themselves: There's enough polling from reputable firms to say "hey, well, I guess Trump could win." Trump+1 in NH, up in FLA/NV/NC... I can see the argument there. You can say "I see enough smoke that Trump's victory isn't completely implausible, going just off polls." Now, I think we're at the point with early voting and stuff that we can say "Well, there could be a polling error or undecideds could break for Trump" is probably not gonna happen. And we can say "well, if NV is in the bag for Clinton, it makes his path way harder."
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Nov 6, 2016 04:51
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shiksa posted:lol remember when the alt-right pivoted from literal 4chan codewords for pedophilia to witchcraft in under 24 hrs The best is all the semi-sane posters trying to get them to focus on the emails that actually show some (not illegal but sketchy) fiscal impropriety and watching them get shouted down as CTR shills until they stop posting
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Nov 6, 2016 04:51
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https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/795105192211517444 https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/795106645558837248
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Nov 6, 2016 04:50
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mannerup posted:
This seems very fishy. Trump supporters would never, ever grab somebody in their genitals out of nowhere.
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Nov 6, 2016 04:51
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By Election Day, the story will be that Hillary personally rolled up in a van and opened fire with a machine gun.
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Nov 6, 2016 04:52
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Zas posted:between mcmuffin, this guy, and the rick wilson guy im noticing a pattern with the never trump republicans Skinhead is gonna mean nonracist right wing after this cycle Lotta stereotypes gettin' shattered
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Nov 6, 2016 04:52
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Sir Tonk posted:its movie time What kind of pussy doesn't shitpost during movies?
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Nov 6, 2016 04:54
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Slate Action posted:https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/795105192211517444 This seems like very bad news for Trump.
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Nov 6, 2016 04:53
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lol
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Nov 6, 2016 04:54
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jackofarcades posted:Re: Nate and 538 hmmm
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Nov 6, 2016 04:54
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A ton of the NPA vote in FL is non-whites. https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/795111716178825221
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Nov 6, 2016 04:54
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Night10194 posted:These look like really, really good numbers. Miami Dade is really important for the Dems, right? Yeah but there's some polling that shows Murphy doesn't have a big edge on Rubio there so it might not kill Rubio
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Nov 6, 2016 04:56
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I missed "Spirit Cooking", what's up with that?
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Nov 6, 2016 04:56
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what does npa stand for
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Nov 6, 2016 04:55
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no party affiliation i reckon
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Nov 6, 2016 04:57
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C-Euro posted:I missed "Spirit Cooking", what's up with that? john podesta is in league with satan
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Nov 6, 2016 04:57
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triple sulk posted:what does npa stand for No Party Affiliation. basically it's Independents. Apparently Hispanic voters tend to register as NPA, I don't know why.
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Nov 6, 2016 04:56
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C-Euro posted:I missed "Spirit Cooking", what's up with that? cannibalism not joking, the current message is "hillary & company are cannibals and eat human flesh"
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Nov 6, 2016 04:56
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Sir Tonk posted:
Are you watching Drew Scanlon play VR games for charity?
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Nov 6, 2016 04:57
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Slate Action posted:A ton of the NPA vote in FL is non-whites. Okay, that's Florida done and dusted, then. Now how about that Arizona?
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Nov 6, 2016 04:57
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C-Euro posted:I missed "Spirit Cooking", what's up with that? honest to god cannibal satanist rumors aimed at hillary it will amount to nothing, much like the rest of trumps efforts in this election
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Nov 6, 2016 04:57
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Just saw an ad that was nothing but clips of Trump talking. Like 20 of them back to back with no text or anything in between the clips, and then finally at the end it said "he should never be president" lol I mean seriously, how can people watch something like that and be okay with him. edit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jdsnGswmGg it was this, but without the music, and the text at the end was different GAYS FOR DAYS fucked around with this message at 05:00 on Nov 6, 2016 |
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Nov 6, 2016 04:57
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TRUMP
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Nov 6, 2016 04:57
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Slate Action posted:No Party Affiliation. basically it's Independents. Swerve ending: the NPAs were all Cuban and they voted Trump
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Nov 6, 2016 04:58
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C-Euro posted:I missed "Spirit Cooking", what's up with that? Conservatives don't know who Marina Abramovic is and Podesta went to a performance art thing she did and now they think he's a Satanist
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Nov 6, 2016 04:58
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i like that trump has breathtakingly horrible people do keynotes at his rally until he shows up, so he looks vaguely good in comparison
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Nov 6, 2016 04:58
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C-Euro posted:I missed "Spirit Cooking", what's up with that? John Podesta's brother is an art collector and he got invited to dinner by Marina Abramovic, a kooky performance artist. This somehow turned into a satanic cult trafficking in little children.
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Nov 6, 2016 04:57
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Hello Nasty Women and Bad Hombres! Goons have raised over $25,000 for RAINN (Rape, Abuse, & Incest National Network). It's a fantastic non profit group that spends 93 cents of every dollar donated on directly helping survivors and preventing sexual violence. Anything you're able to give will matter and make a difference! Join us and post your donation in this thread to add to the tally! And if you'd like a sweet as hell gang tag, go on to post in the Nasty Woman / Bad Hombre Donation Thread. Let's do something Good! 
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Nov 6, 2016 04:58
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hey guys i have spent my night partying, can someone be a friend and link me this trump getting whisked off the stage video? i am buzzed and have no idea what is going on so thx in advance
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Nov 6, 2016 04:59
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C-Euro posted:I missed "Spirit Cooking", what's up with that? you know how this election was unbelievably dumb and couldn't possibly get any stupider?
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Nov 6, 2016 04:59
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Looking forward to the Schnorkles Report tomorrow. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/795112707477434368
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Nov 6, 2016 05:00
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Phyresis posted:sup Hammer Lord buddy
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Nov 6, 2016 05:00
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GAYS FOR DAYS posted:Just saw an ad that was nothing but clips of Trump talking. Like 20 of them back to back with no text or anything in between the clips, and then finally at the end it said "he should never be president" "he'll put a pro-life justice on the supreme court!"  ^ half my facebook conservative feed; the other half is that hillary personally committed benghazi emails while tearing up the constitution. people find a way to justify it by ignoring his awful policies and person.
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Nov 6, 2016 05:00
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https://twitter.com/JesseFFerguson/status/795093652309766144
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Nov 6, 2016 05:00
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Naturally.
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Nov 6, 2016 05:00
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go fairfax i guess prince william is pretty hispanic and fairfax is 60+% blue in a normal year
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Nov 6, 2016 05:00
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C-Euro posted:I missed "Spirit Cooking", what's up with that? Hillary is literally being accused of witchcraft
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Nov 6, 2016 05:01
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I'm a big adult son
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Nov 6, 2016 05:01
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CortezFantastic posted:hey guys i have spent my night partying, can someone be a friend and link me this trump getting whisked off the stage video? i am buzzed and have no idea what is going on so thx in advance google it you lazy fuccboi
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Nov 6, 2016 05:01
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Tracking Polls Are Dumb https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/795113833626898432
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Nov 6, 2016 05:01
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