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exquisite tea
Apr 21, 2007

Carly shook her glass, willing the ice to melt. "You still haven't told me what the mission is."

She leaned forward. "We are going to assassinate the bad men of Hollywood."



Are you all ready for Speaker Trump (R-WI)?

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a.lo
Sep 12, 2009

mandatory lesbian posted:

weird as hell magic card

you find a magic card somewhere it has no reason to be

jackofarcades
Sep 2, 2011

Okay, I'll admit it took me a bit to get into it... But I think I kinda love this!! I'm Spider-Man!! I'm actually Spider-Man!! HA!

Potato Salad posted:

Sorta. From article:

That’s why a polling miss in Nevada is far more significant if it means the polls are off in other states in the same direction. In 2012, the polls underestimated Obama in Nevada and all over the map. That led to an easy Obama victory, despite pre-election polls pointing to a close race. In the FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast, which assumes that if one state’s polls miss then a polling error in that direction is more likely to occur in other states too, Clinton wins 88 percent of the time with a victory in Nevada. That’s obviously a big difference and why the early vote numbers coming out of Nevada could mean a lot.

Shook Nate says Gambling Nevada may indicate that Crooked Hillary is in Scary Reality doing Bigly Better than his model presently allows itself to feel comfortable with.

Nevada going blue just as one independent contained isolated state doesn't help HRC much. That's not the point of Nate's model, though. His model looks at cases where polling everywhere is potentially off the mark in unison, per 2012.

1) In his simulations with Blue Nevada, HRC wins the general 88% of the time because polling in linked states was too conservative with her margin
.
2) Nevada early voting is so HRC leaning it isn't insane to start thinking of it as her victory



3) add 1 and 2

Yeah and 88 percent is suddenly way in line with betting markets, the Upshot, and that pessimistic PEC model. Plus, if we do see a slight rebound in national polls, she should tick up even more.

neutral milf hotel
Oct 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

It's like that time the Romney campaign cut off the campaign credit cards in the middle of his concession speech. But trump is business savvy and not even activating resources to begin with :smuggo:

boethius
Jul 10, 2001

Space bunnies have three ears

Is it too late for a Jeb! comeback?

Turdfuzz
Jul 23, 2008

Squizzle posted:

mods admins plz lift the 10 sec timer from now until 8 am on wednesday

yea quit holding this thread back

the bitcoin of weed
Nov 1, 2014


he's got the most powerful genes

GobiasIndustries
Dec 14, 2007

Lipstick Apathy

He is so loving stupid about everything.

a.lo
Sep 12, 2009

There's always a certain sweet feeling you get after putting together a particularly cruel decklist

boethius
Jul 10, 2001

Space bunnies have three ears

Turdfuzz posted:

yea quit holding this thread back

Come on mods! #MSAGA

neutral milf hotel
Oct 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Squizzle posted:

mods admins plz lift the 10 sec timer from now until 8 am on wednesday

Why?
are you trying to top al!'s 11k posts? :stare:

E. forgot punctuation

neutral milf hotel fucked around with this message at 19:19 on Nov 6, 2016

AreWeDrunkYet
Jul 8, 2006


Sounds like the campaign should pay its bills.

a.lo
Sep 12, 2009

boethius posted:

Is it too late for a Jeb! comeback?


Too early to tell!!

Dalaram
Jun 6, 2002

Marshall/Kirtaner 8/24 nevar forget! (omg pedo)

Probably because trump campaign didn't pay the phone bill.

DaveWoo
Aug 14, 2004

Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/CahnEmily/status/795322989973831684

https://twitter.com/CahnEmily/status/795323234665242625

That DICK!
Sep 28, 2010

I'm large and in charge

a.lo
Sep 12, 2009

That DICK! posted:

I'm large and in charge

and?

Mia Wasikowska
Oct 7, 2006



boethius posted:

Is it too late for a Jeb! comeback?

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


That DICK! posted:

I'm large and in charge
Gay. Bigly.

boethius
Jul 10, 2001

Space bunnies have three ears

That DICK! posted:

I'm large and in charge

Chris Christie?

Turdfuzz
Jul 23, 2008

That DICK! posted:

I'm large and in charge

two types of nerds
short n fat
tall n absurdly tall

Atoramos
Aug 31, 2003

Jim's now a Blind Cave Salamander!



The first paragraph here basically states that Donald Trump is really Wile E Coyote in an elaborate costume.

Luckily for us, Hillary is actually The Road Runner in a pantsuit.

boethius
Jul 10, 2001

Space bunnies have three ears


Jeb! Can Fix It (the election)

Turdfuzz
Jul 23, 2008

Turdfuzz posted:

two types of nerds
short n fat
tall n absurdly tall

i meant skinny n absurdly tall but hey u kno gotta get them posts out the loving door stat

Alec Bald Snatch
Sep 12, 2012

by exmarx

iospace posted:

Real talk though: The one state I'm worried about now is NC. Rep turnout seems to be higher than 2012 this year, though I haven't seen any solid numbers on final EV turnout.

rep turnout's slightly higher (a fraction of a percent) than dem turnout, but it's eating into their election day total

in 2012 dems had about 42% ev turnout vs reps 40% and romney's narrow (~90k vote) victory came from dems cannibalizing their election day vote

now it's r-47.8 d-47.7, with slightly fewer registered dems and slightly more registered republicans than this day in 2012

provided the clinton campaign actually turns out election day votes and unaffiliateds, the majority of whom are under 50 and live in urban areas, don't for some reason all of a sudden break heavily toward trump, there just aren't enough registered republicans left to carry election day to the same extent they did in 2012

also keep in mind about 45.2% of all registered voters have already voted. a high turnout election in nc sees total turnout in the mid-60s, so we're looking at roughly 2/3 of the state having already voted

Tainen
Jan 23, 2004
Putting all that spirit cooking to good use.

https://twitter.com/porn_horse/status/794741653970059264

That DICK!
Sep 28, 2010


And I want Bill and Melanie to gently caress

Turdfuzz
Jul 23, 2008

it aint shitposting if u proofread or even correct speeling mistakes

Tacky-Ass Rococco
Sep 7, 2010

by R. Guyovich
I'm trying to kick my crippling forums addiction, someone please link the last Schnorkels effortpost so I can read that and log out again tia.

GobiasIndustries
Dec 14, 2007

Lipstick Apathy

Tainen posted:

Putting all that spirit cooking to good use.

https://twitter.com/porn_horse/status/794741653970059264

like, a horse that does porn?

Red Dad Redemption
Sep 29, 2007

Fiction posted:

this is literally your fault you philandering miserable old gently caress

behold one of his wonderful contributions to elevating our national discourse

https://users.wfu.edu/zulick/454/gopac.html

Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.

logikv9 posted:

When this forum gets to November 8, 2016, you're going to see some serious poo poo.

I'm going to sign every single one of my posts that day I'm not even kidding!!!

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/795328001621819393

so this is why he wasn't tweeting for a few hours

Schnorkles
Apr 30, 2015

It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.
Schnorkles brand EV update, Maybe calling Hispanics rapists was a poor strategic decision edition:

Rule of this election: Narratives don't really catch what's going on very well other then that Latino enthusiasm is way up. This will be a pretty short update as my head hurts and I'm tired.

We've reached the portion of the media narrative where there are no obvious paths to the presidency for Donald Trump, especially with how Florida is going. This leads to lots of breathless pontificating about whether or not the HRC campaign is in trouble in Michigan or Pennsylvania. The same thing happened in 2012. Michigan [esp. with a couple close polls right at the end] was constantly analyzed as the place where Romney could sneak a state from the blue wall and change everything. While HRC shows weakness in the Rust Belt, I think that the media consensus that Ohio leans Trump and he can attack in MI/PA is a bit of a joke.

Ohio is a tossup that will come down to organization [As fake Nixon calls it, "Precinct Politics"] , which is why I think most of the actual pundits who are interested in being right give HRC a very slight edge there. She's not losing MI/PA.

Georgia -

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/795303212127551488

AfAm +3.7% from the equivalent point in 2012. [28k votes or so] FL and Louisiana are following similar trends while North Carolina and Virginia have a bit more squishyness in turnout.

Virginia -

Record turnout in early vote, especially in Latino heavy areas. Some squishyness in AfAm vote here, but not enough to really be concerned about anything,

North Carolina -

I've spent all morning reading about 10 different takes on the current NC electorate. It's a.) probably really close, b.) somewhere between "pretty good for HRC" and "really good for Trump" so who knows. AfAm turnout is down by about 60k total votes, but urban county turnout is way up. Latinos up by about 35k votes, and the surge in white voters is basically completely among women. My gut instinct is that's balanced out somewhat and depends on how white voters are breaking. Most polls put HRC close in NC with white voters, which is why she was performing well. Generally speaking, the electorate is as we expect it, so it simply comes down to how the white vote is breaking out.

FL -

I think the republicans are running out of old people. Numbers:

Total Ballots cast: 6,152,099

Total Vote By Mail: 2,536,167 (42.2%)
Total Early Vote: 3,615,932 (57.8%)

Democrats: 2,435,493 (39.58%)
Republicans: 2,403,171 (39.06%)
NPA: 1,201,715 (21.35%)

Total Margin: DEM +0.59%

In an early voting cycle that has been characterized by very slight changes one way or the other on a day to day basis, Dems bank 30k+ votes and take a 35k lead into Sunday. Expect the lead to dramatically expand today, as early voting is on a county by county basis and basically the only counties that do it are Democratic strongholds. Ft. Myers, the Republicans best county in the state, sits at 59% turnout at the moment. It's not clear how much more vote they can actually squeeze out of that county.

There is other really good news for Democrats all across the state: Turnout in Miami-Dade is really high and just getting higher. The turnout numbers in the I-4 corridor are basically the exact opposite of a Trump wave [i.e. Diverse Latino counties significantly overperforming, white republican counties underperforming.]

Partisan democratic leads:

Miami-Dade +100k

Broward +188.5k

If these two numbers together get to around 500k, put a fork in it.

Turdfuzz
Jul 23, 2008

Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:

I'm trying to kick my crippling forums addiction

i got forums fever
i just cant stop

TildeATH
Oct 21, 2010

by Lowtax

If you have to put the text of what someone is saying on a gif it's a bad gif.

frankenfreak
Feb 16, 2007

I SCORED 85% ON A QUIZ ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT RAW AND ALL I GOT WAS THIS LOUSY TEXT

#bastionboogerbrigade

Tainen posted:

Putting all that spirit cooking to good use.

https://twitter.com/porn_horse/status/794741653970059264
Radical!

TotalHell
Feb 22, 2005

Roman Reigns fights CM Punk in fantasy warld. Lotsa violins, so littl kids cant red it.


boethius posted:

Chris Christie?

turnin Chris Christie into a Dark Souls boss

I will name him Corpus Christie

Turdfuzz
Jul 23, 2008

TildeATH posted:

If you have to put the text of what someone is saying on a gif it's a bad gif.

oh geez a bad gif oh god no oh gently caress oh man

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Johnny Joestar
Oct 21, 2010

Don't shoot him?

...
...



nate is just really diving deep into that clickbait whirlpool, huh

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