|
One big difference is that in poker, you actually have to spend time playing. A poker pro typically doesn't play in small stakes games, because it's not worth his time. In DFS, pros can and do play small stakes, since submitting a lineup only takes a few seconds.
|
# ? Nov 5, 2016 18:31 |
|
|
# ? May 22, 2024 13:05 |
|
Dr. Fishopolis posted:I think what you're not realizing is that you're in a small minority of people who take the time to figure out how the game really works. The vast majority of people dumping money in will never do that. If they did, the system would fall apart. I realize I'm in the minority, but I can't see how it would hurt the game for people to understand how it works. It would stop the conspiracy theories. And if your suggestion is that understanding the odds would make them stop playing, that seems unlikely. If the belief that the game is rigged to the point where it is impossible to win hasn't stopped them, I'm not sure how a better understanding of the game would. Konstantin posted:One big difference is that in poker, you actually have to spend time playing. A poker pro typically doesn't play in small stakes games, because it's not worth his time. In DFS, pros can and do play small stakes, since submitting a lineup only takes a few seconds. This is true and I'm not sure what the solution is. I mean, the obvious solution is to limit the pros entry to smaller stakes but I haven't seen a good way to do this. The sites have restricted the number of entries to low buy-in tournaments which has been popular but in my view has negative consequences. It separates the field into beginners and sharks, removing the middle ground and forcing bad bankroll decisions. As I mentioned earlier I started by mass entering 25-cent games but with the new limits that wouldn't be possible. I could play 50 x 25-cent lineups for $12.50 or 50 x $1 lineups for $50. But to get more than 50 lineups I need to move up to 150 x $3 lineups for $450 which was out of reach of my bankroll until recently (these limits are currently forced by state laws BTW and are based entirely on what feels right rather than any empirical analysis). So it wouldn't really be possible to grind from low to middle stakes anymore. These kind of rules are forcing people to move up in stakes before they're ready. On the flip side, if a "pro" hits the wrong end of variance and loses confidence in their strategy or needs to cash out due to a medical emergency or something are we really going to block them from playing lower stakes? The only kind of rule I would support in theory is one that limits the total number of simultaneous entries, so that entering a 25-cent game means one fewer $100 entry. But I won't support any actual proposal because the proposed limits are always absurdly low and would preclude players like me, not beginners but certainly not pros, from using smart bankroll management. By just about any proposal to deal with this issue, I would either quit or be forced to play higher stakes than I'm comfortable with. Forcing people to play higher stakes is not a good look for an industry that's trying to avoid being seen as gambling. Singe entry tournaments exist so people are free to avoid playing against people like me who enter lots of lineups if they wish. The funny thing is, though, that you need more points to win these tournaments because multiple lineups doesn't actually increase your ROI, just your volume. I should shut up about this since it's a major derail. But the whole thing just drives me crazy. If I want to play 1000 25-cent lineups against other people playing 1000 lineups, I should be able to. I think that would be fun. And it would be interesting to have a game with no entry limits because there would be disagreement about the optimal number of entries. People who don't like that idea could play in the tournaments with entry limits. But no, it would be illegal to allow more than 50 entries in a 25-cent game. SurgicalOntologist fucked around with this message at 19:02 on Nov 5, 2016 |
# ? Nov 5, 2016 18:56 |
|
Professional online poker sounds about as fun as WoW gold farming.
|
# ? Nov 5, 2016 19:51 |
|
exploding mummy posted:Yes, the photocopier company that names itself after a photocopying process to the point where its name became just as ubiquitous as photocopying has no bearing as its name as a photocopying company. Nobody knows what Xerox's name means, it was just a sequence of syllables to virtually every human who encountered it. That it became a generic sort of inverts causality, no?
|
# ? Nov 5, 2016 20:49 |
|
Subjunctive posted:Nobody knows what Xerox's name means, it was just a sequence of syllables to virtually every human who encountered it. That it became a generic sort of inverts causality, no? This is an even more tedious argument than whatever that crap about apple was
|
# ? Nov 5, 2016 21:13 |
|
Senor Dog posted:This is an even more tedious argument than whatever that crap about apple was It's also true. Ask a random person if they understand the term xerography, they won't. Ask a random person if they understand the term xeroxing, they will.
|
# ? Nov 5, 2016 21:17 |
|
Every once in a while my work computer pops up a message saying that the printer is temporarily making xerographic adjustments when I try to print.
|
# ? Nov 5, 2016 21:24 |
|
BarbarianElephant posted:Professional online poker sounds about as fun as WoW gold farming. I did it for a while in 2007 and 2008 when the boom was biggest, and to be honest I'm a little salty about DFS seeming to get a pass while Congress brought down the hammer on online poker at the behest of B&M casinos and dried the pond up. But it was pretty dreary unless you had the talent and persistence to make it big time. The clichéd wisdom goes, "it's a hard way to make an easy living." But I wouldn't be too naive about DFS and cheating given that whenever there's large amounts of money moving there will be temptation to cheat: Ultimate Bet and Absolute Poker had their own massive cheating scandals back in the day. However DFS is clearly it's own animal and I know pretty much nothing about it and would've happily lived in ignorance if I hadn't had to listen to a DraftKings advertisement on every podcast.
|
# ? Nov 5, 2016 21:53 |
|
Subjunctive posted:Nobody knows what Xerox's name means, it was just a sequence of syllables to virtually every human who encountered it. That it became a generic sort of inverts causality, no? Yeah if Xerox was founded or named in 2016 I would totally agree. But it was named 60 years ago and it wasn't genericized at that point so ignoring causality is idiotic. I don't disagree with your point all that much either, Apple has no bearing on anything that Apple did, other than the fact that Jobs was on a fruit kick.
|
# ? Nov 5, 2016 23:42 |
|
Subjunctive posted:I know what all of them mean. None, with the exception of Compaq, convey to the layperson whether they are search engines, phone makers, pharmaceutical companies, or toys. Please see the post to which I was replying, it is relevant to my point. Now, when you ask somebody, "So, why Altiq?" (I made up Altiq. It no doubt exists anyway.) the answer is "It's just a name." Which isn't fun, and isn't easy to remember. I can remember Oracle. I can remember Hewlett-Packard. Palantir can remember me. Exabeam*? Whatever. *Exabeam actually does exist.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 01:11 |
|
Hewlett-Packard sounds like an accounting firm. You only remember it because you've heard it so many times.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 01:18 |
|
there is literally no more enjoyable activity in san francisco than meeting a palantir employee and innocently asking something like "wait wasn't that that thing from lord of the rings that sauron used to spy on everybody?" they get so, so angry.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 02:08 |
|
Subjunctive posted:Nobody knows what Xerox's name means, it was just a sequence of syllables to virtually every human who encountered it. That it became a generic sort of inverts causality, no? Maybe hang out with smarter people? Like is there anybody who doesn't know that xerox is short for the name of the actual process?
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 04:46 |
|
Bishounen Bonanza posted:Maybe hang out with smarter people? Like is there anybody who doesn't know that xerox is short for the name of the actual process? I'll admit it - prior to this discussion I didn't even know the word xerography. I think I might've run into the term electrophotography before, but I'm not positive about that.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 05:23 |
|
Subjunctive posted:Nothing as obvious as Google, Apple, Compaq, Xerox, or Hewlett-Packard, certainly. SurgicalOntologist posted:DFS Chat
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 06:30 |
|
cheese posted:They were not able to for a variety of reasons, including horrible new user experiences leading to bad retention rates, perceived or real collusion and cheating, lack of community, etc. It is possible they are still growing, but DFS sites are not taking the fantasy world by storm. I'm not into fantasy sports or gambling at all but if I were I still would have avoided FanDuel and DraftKings purely to punish them for their absurdly aggressive and obnoxious ad campaigns.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 06:53 |
|
Arsenic Lupin posted:So, why Altiq? quote:Altiq is a hedge fund group set up to apply state-of-the-art technology solutions to investment management.Its founders have over 15 years experience in the field of quantitative finance, and have assembled a team of experienced professionals in order to build a class leading firm. The foundation of the company is a research driven approach, with intelligent decisions executed in an efficient manner. Whilst underlying market behaviour is complex and therefore requires a degree of complexity in the systems used to invest, Altiq believes that the investment proposition to its clients should be simple: an innovative investment approach, built on a well run business platform, managed by people they can trust.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 08:32 |
|
Rhesus Pieces posted:I'm not into fantasy sports or gambling at all but if I were I still would have avoided FanDuel and DraftKings purely to punish them for their absurdly aggressive and obnoxious ad campaigns. Don't worry, you're not the target audience. Those obnoxiously aggressive ads exist almost solely to reel in addicts.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 09:28 |
|
Dr. Fishopolis posted:there is literally no more enjoyable activity in san francisco than meeting a palantir employee and innocently asking something like "wait wasn't that that thing from lord of the rings that sauron used to spy on everybody?" Do they dislike that it's from a fantasy novel or that it's something a bad guy used to spy on people?
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 09:52 |
|
Qwertycoatl posted:Do they dislike that it's from a fantasy novel or that it's something a bad guy used to spy on people? From what I hear, they dislike hearing about it from every nerd in Silicon Valley that read Lord of the Rings, which is like 98% of nerds in Silicon Valley.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 09:59 |
|
Qwertycoatl posted:Do they dislike that it's from a fantasy novel or that it's something a bad guy used to spy on people? They dislike people broaching the negative connotations of the palantirs, as their recruitment process and company culture consists of extended stints of buying into the purity of the corporate vision and the sainthood of Peter Thiel.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 11:30 |
|
cheese posted:
Also legit insider info conveying a currently unmeasured advantage. Probably nothing more than existing machine learning setups or strong synthesis from publicly available NFL info channels, but single round fantasy could be highly sensitive to things like game plans, rep counts, and other things the NFL operates in. It would not affect anyone but the largest whales, but it appears the systems are dominated by relatively few large whales.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 11:43 |
|
cheese posted:The issue with Fan Duel and Draft Kings is that north of 60m people play Fantasy Sports and they promised investors that they could get at that market. They were not able to for a variety of reasons, including horrible new user experiences leading to bad retention rates, perceived or real collusion and cheating, lack of community, etc. It is possible they are still growing, but DFS sites are not taking the fantasy world by storm. This is correct, and why they belong in this thread. They concocted a best-case scenario, sold investors on it, and then only planned for the best-case outcome. archangelwar posted:Also legit insider info conveying a currently unmeasured advantage. Probably nothing more than existing machine learning setups or strong synthesis from publicly available NFL info channels, but single round fantasy could be highly sensitive to things like game plans, rep counts, and other things the NFL operates in. It would not affect anyone but the largest whales, but it appears the systems are dominated by relatively few large whales. This, on the other hand, is meaningless scaremongering. You realize that publicly available information and insider info are mutually exclusive? The name of the game is prediction so it's ridiculous to think that only the "whales" are interested in things like game plans and rep counts. That's all anyone in the community talks about. Projections are widely available and many of the top players (and not-so-top players) use paid subscription services rather than making their own projections. Among players making their own projections, the majority are reinventing regression in Excel. Sure, some are using machine learning, but there's a clear upper bound on the ability to project sports performances. The bigger challenge is understanding the uncertainty around each projection and formulating a strategy based on the probability distributions. I know several players who think in these terms but it's not common among the top players, and it's not a magic bullet in any case.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 15:02 |
|
Rhesus Pieces posted:I'm not into fantasy sports or gambling at all but if I were I still would have avoided FanDuel and DraftKings purely to punish them for their absurdly aggressive and obnoxious ad campaigns. archangelwar posted:Also legit insider info conveying a currently unmeasured advantage. Probably nothing more than existing machine learning setups or strong synthesis from publicly available NFL info channels, but single round fantasy could be highly sensitive to things like game plans, rep counts, and other things the NFL operates in. It would not affect anyone but the largest whales, but it appears the systems are dominated by relatively few large whales. End of the day, this ignores the reality that most people play fantasy sports casually, and most people want to play with friends/family/co-workers. DFS is still a crappy way to have fun with your friends.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 17:44 |
|
Discendo Vox posted:Altiq is a hedge fund group set up to apply state-of-the-art technology solutions to investment management.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 17:48 |
|
Bishounen Bonanza posted:Maybe hang out with smarter people? Like is there anybody who doesn't know that xerox is short for the name of the actual process? Hahaha what bubble do you live in where the majority of people you know the precise term for that process
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 18:25 |
|
Add me to the tally of dumb people who didn't realize Xerox was named after an actual process.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 18:26 |
|
I think the average person would be aware both that Xerox is a company that makes equipment and that "to xerox" something also means, at least in the vernacular, to copy a document. I think most people (myself included) would be unaware of a technical term xerography upon which all of it is based.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 18:53 |
|
SurgicalOntologist posted:
Yes which is why I am almost baffled by the rest of your post because I was talking about the latter being a potential unmeasured influence in outcomes, and that it had a higher cost of entry compared to conventional strategy. It is the same issue that pervades standard football/sports betting, and I just speculated that it could potentially influence single day fantasy because you are operating at the individual level rather than the team. That isn't scaremongering, I'm not trying to paint your hobby in a negative light; you seem reflexively defensive.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 19:24 |
|
This is a great series of videos on 'Down Round' and the current 'bubble' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5E75tW71_aQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKg-t0B7kXM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMztvWtrNQs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTxBO-VU7SE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGFM2pW4Fmg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To9Vw6Z0wgg
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 19:38 |
|
archangelwar posted:Yes which is why I am almost baffled by the rest of your post because I was talking about the latter being a potential unmeasured influence in outcomes, and that it had a higher cost of entry compared to conventional strategy. It is the same issue that pervades standard football/sports betting, and I just speculated that it could potentially influence single day fantasy because you are operating at the individual level rather than the team. That isn't scaremongering, I'm not trying to paint your hobby in a negative light; you seem reflexively defensive. Sorry if I overreacted; I was mainly responding to "legit insider info" which is very different than what you're talking about here. The biggest and most misrepresented of the DFS "scandals" centered around an accusation of insider info. That was what got the attention of many state AGs and kicked off all the negative press. Even though it's now clear that there was no insider info involved, the perception remains. And without the accusation of insider info I'm not sure why paying attention to game plans would constitute an "issue".
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 21:26 |
|
This one drives me nuts. It's a bunch of VC guys handwaving how going from 3% to 20% down rounds in a quarter doesn't indicate anything more than a "needed slowdown". "Companies aren't going public for some reason, which is maybe something to worry about." No poo poo they aren't going public, they have no loving revenue model. The '99 bubble had a big IPO market because all those companies at least tried to sell something to someone. This should be an indicator of a deep, systemic problem that makes this bubble potentially worse than the last one, instead they're calling it "capital constipation" as if they have no idea what's causing it. "There's less risk because most of the money is private." Really? Pension funds are the single largest investors in venture capital. Everyone wants to talk like their LPs are mysterious wealthy donors who can afford to take on a ton of risk. They're not. They're pensions, endowments, charitable foundations, corporations, insurance companies and family offices. They're institutions that risk collapse when the VC bubble bursts, just like last time, whether this poo poo is public or not. I mean, it's TechCrunch so it's not like this is an investigative report, but I have to wonder where the loving Frontline episode is about this, because investors need to be a shitload more worried than they are.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 22:19 |
|
SurgicalOntologist posted:Sorry if I overreacted; I was mainly responding to "legit insider info" which is very different than what you're talking about here. The biggest and most misrepresented of the DFS "scandals" centered around an accusation of insider info. That was what got the attention of many state AGs and kicked off all the negative press. Even though it's now clear that there was no insider info involved, the perception remains. And without the accusation of insider info I'm not sure why paying attention to game plans would constitute an "issue". I'm talking about gray market insider info that has been traded around high stakes sports betting for some time, which is not something DFS sites can explicitly control. I remember the accusations last year, but wasn't that about an employee accessing and using internally controlled information for Draft Kings? I only bring it up because it is a differentiator between DFS and things like online poker. I have no idea if it is even a strong or influential factor, only that it is information asymmetry (game plans are not traditionally published, but are often leaked, for one thing).
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 22:48 |
|
Good news, everyone! Free Uber and Lyft rides to Philly polls on Election Day quote:An update posted on Nov. 5 stresses the urgency of the campaign specifically in Philadelphia, since the SEPTA strike is still ongoing: “Philly is one of the largest turnout cities for Pennsylvania. All of these voters are going to need rides.”
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 22:59 |
|
SurgicalOntologist posted:Sorry if I overreacted; I was mainly responding to "legit insider info" which is very different than what you're talking about here. The biggest and most misrepresented of the DFS "scandals" centered around an accusation of insider info. That was what got the attention of many state AGs and kicked off all the negative press. Even though it's now clear that there was no insider info involved, the perception remains. And without the accusation of insider info I'm not sure why paying attention to game plans would constitute an "issue". Dude are you financially invested or otherwise have some kind of stake in these companies? Because you've passed white knight and hit all-the-fury-of-a-thousand-suns incandescence at this point.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2016 23:14 |
|
Dr. Fishopolis posted:Really? Pension funds are the single largest investors in venture capital. Everyone wants to talk like their LPs are mysterious wealthy donors who can afford to take on a ton of risk. They're not. They're pensions, endowments, charitable foundations, corporations, insurance companies and family offices. They're institutions that risk collapse when the VC bubble bursts, just like last time, whether this poo poo is public or not. What pension fund has enough of its money in the VC asset class that it risks collapse when returns drop? That would be an unusual LP, I think.
|
# ? Nov 7, 2016 00:26 |
|
Dr. Fishopolis posted:This one drives me nuts. It's a bunch of VC guys handwaving how going from 3% to 20% down rounds in a quarter doesn't indicate anything more than a "needed slowdown". I like how they went out of their way to make sure all the founders were women or minorities. You're not loving fooling anyone TechCrunch.
|
# ? Nov 7, 2016 00:31 |
|
Kobayashi posted:I like how they went out of their way to make sure all the founders were women or minorities. You're not loving fooling anyone TechCrunch. They did the same for the "jobs are becoming scarce" video, and I thought they were going to juxtapose it with white & asian brogrammers saying "it's crazy how hot the market is for engineers!"
|
# ? Nov 7, 2016 01:00 |
|
Subjunctive posted:What pension fund has enough of its money in the VC asset class that it risks collapse when returns drop? That would be an unusual LP, I think.
|
# ? Nov 7, 2016 01:01 |
|
|
# ? May 22, 2024 13:05 |
|
SurgicalOntologist posted:Even though it's now clear that there was no insider info involved, the perception remains. My understanding was that certain employees of company A had access to data from bettors at company A (prevalence of individual player picks, etc) and used this information to (successfully) wager in the analogous contests on company B's platform. Is this understanding incorrect (it quite possibly is) or are you arguing that this isn't insider info? One of the biggest problems with DFS relative to e.g. online poker in terms of a competitive ecosystem is that poker is a much more complex game to automate near-optimal play in (only HU limit holdem was anywhere close to being solved during the poker boom, which was very much a niche game), and that individual players can scale their play volume much more easily in DFS than online poker (efficiently multi-tabling more than a handful of tables was very difficult for all but a relatively small number of elite players, whereas in DFS it is relatively simple for very big winners to scale their volume to the appropriate amount given their bankroll/risk-tolerance/etc). blah_blah fucked around with this message at 01:14 on Nov 7, 2016 |
# ? Nov 7, 2016 01:08 |