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Accidentally bought a position in MSFT in the wrong account on Friday at $58.80. Proceeded to buy another position in MSFT right after at $59.85 in the right account with the hope I could pay off the commission within the volatility. MSFT as well as the market has been kind of beaten down for the past week or two, so I figure it was due for a bump. Also expecting a bump before the election once people took their head out of their asses with all the doomsday predictions. For once my gently caress-up and subsequent gamble paid off, as I realized a 2.5% overnight gain on the mistaken position and a similar unrealized 3% gain on the correct long term position.
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Nov 7, 2016 20:15
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I dunno that your tobacco analogy really holds. For one thing cigars and cigarettes are consumed differently by different markets. People aren't buying cigarettes to smoke daily versus cigars because of the cost difference and their method of drug delivery is pretty much the same with similar effects. On the other hand you can smoke poo poo weed all day along and you won't ever get as high as a single bowl of great weed would get you, plus you'll have a ringing headache for your trouble. I really don't think outdoor trash weed will ever be as popular as you think. I think vast outdoor grows *might* be popular to provide weed for edibles but I don't think people will prefer to buy seedy crappy weed when the top tier stuff is super cheap anyway. If an eighth of high quality hydro costs $30-$40 then I'm not buying ditch weed even for $5/eighth because I'd smoke the entire bag and it wouldn't get me high versus 1-2 decent puffs on the good stuff. Tobacco just doesn't work the same way (plus a decent cigar takes 30-60 mins to smoke). And let's be real, crops grown on vast outdoor plots will be trash weed. There's just no getting around it - we're talking about pre-sensimilla days type stuff. Plus from what I've seen, most people who smoke weed who are presented with the choice a club offers almost *never* opt to buy the crappier weed that is cheaper, and a huge number of them end up buying the extracts and waxes and tinctures that are even stronger than the best hydro nugs at even more premium prices. We're talking about drug users here, after all (I say that as someone who smokes weed a lot). I think industrial hemp will be a much more popular crop on those marginal farm lands. Either way though, I agree that it's too early to be investing in weed stuff. I haven't seen a decent ETF and I don't think I will until there are some more serious companies in the industry - it's kind of a bit too 'wild west' for me at the moment. Example: half the edibles found in the club are blatant copyright infringement (Stoney Rancher, BuddahFinger, KeefKat, Pot-Tarts) that is in a word toxic as hell from an investment standpoint. I don't really care what their sales look like if they are going to get slammed with fat lawsuits they will surely lose as soon as they take off. That said yeah there are a couple more serious looking companies that might be worth looking at but I don't think they are publicly trade-able in any way regardless (based on research I did half a year or more ago, granted). paternity suitor posted:I've taken exactly one grow class, and have approximately zero crop growing experience outside of that, but one of the things we were taught was the importance of fooling the plants regarding the season. In a controlled environment, you can fool the plants into staying in a growth season for a long time, which gives you much better yields. Cannabis plants only yield buds when they're about to die, which happens in the fall. So you trick them into growing a lot by simulating summer light, and then you trick them into budding and dying by decreasing light. Indoors, you also have many more harvests per year too. Yeah an outdoor grow will yield harvest maybe a couple times a year really depending on the genetics, but with an indoor grow you can fool the plantto start flowering early (and without worrying about it actually dying on you) and get a harvest every 45-60 days depending on harvest (I'm sure that number will go down as well once there is more money in marijuana genetics). So yeah electricity is expensive but you're talking literally 10x or more the yield of higher margin/priced product from an equivalent amount of floor space - without even considering how much more a plant can yield by virtue of an indoor grow - and I dunno that electricity is all *that* expensive. Also, pointsofdata posted:lol Walmart isn't going to start their own grow op Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 20:21 on Nov 7, 2016 |
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Nov 7, 2016 20:17
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pointsofdata posted:lol Walmart isn't going to start their own grow op Um doesn't Sear Holdings have a poo poo ton of empty Kmarts? Someone get on the board and get this going.
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Nov 7, 2016 20:19
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This is my chance! Can't wait to add Kmart President of N.A. Sticky Icky Solutions to my LinkedIn profile!
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Nov 7, 2016 20:23
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Just another quick post because that last one was getting hella long; I think a much closer analogy would be the way the alcohol industry works. Yes, there are macro brews that are considered not very good - that's going to be your mass produced mids (still mostly indoor though I think). However, there's also a huge market for hard liquor, micro brews, home brews, all kinds of different flavors and blends, etc.
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Nov 7, 2016 20:25
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Re indoor legal grow operations, skylights / greenhouses will be an option if you don't have to hide what you're doing from helicopters. Artificial light will only have to make up the difference from optimal vs natural light, not provide 100%
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Nov 7, 2016 20:31
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Business, Finance, and Careers > The Stock Trading Megathread: Marijuana Grow Thread.
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Nov 7, 2016 20:35
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I didn't think I'd wake up today and seriously wonder whether Wal-Mart, Amazon, or Sears would get into a competition to see who could grow the most weed.
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Nov 7, 2016 20:46
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It'll actually be Costco.
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Nov 7, 2016 20:49
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Hmmm, good point. They have the most electrolytes, don't they?
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Nov 7, 2016 20:51
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I'm ready to buy a penny weed stock. Steer me straight goons, what should I buy 5 bux of
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Nov 7, 2016 21:02
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POT  e: CBIS (OTK ticker) DNK fucked around with this message at 21:26 on Nov 7, 2016 |
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Nov 7, 2016 21:24
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i got some CBIS and it hasn't done jack in the last week. the CANN i got at .90 on the other hand...
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Nov 7, 2016 23:10
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I'm going to watch the IIPR IPO, it is a REIT specializing in retail and industrial properties associated with medical marijuana. Plus the management is a legitimate REIT management team so i assume they won't take the IPO money and run away to Tijuana.
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Nov 7, 2016 23:58
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Walmart could grow on the roof and use solar to power the lights? Might be bearable to shop there stoned.
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Nov 8, 2016 00:59
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The real company to look at for weed is Target, who will grow marginally higher quality weed than Walmart but sell it for 25% higher prices.
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Nov 8, 2016 01:02
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Not sure why you guys are talking about Walmart and Target and Costco. They have too much to lose since they're not terrible dead companies. If it's anyone, it's going to be Sears and JC Penney. All that mall space will finally become valuable again.
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Nov 8, 2016 01:09
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Dr. Eldarion posted:Not sure why you guys are talking about Walmart and Target and Costco. They have too much to lose since they're not terrible dead companies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgVS1OhucbI&t=129s
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Nov 8, 2016 02:20
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Isn't Walmart the one that doesn't sell contraceptives because Christian customers would be mad?
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Nov 8, 2016 17:10
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All in TVIX for surprise Trump upset. See you guys on the other side.
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Nov 8, 2016 17:13
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revmoo posted:All in TVIX for surprise Trump upset. See you guys on the other side. Ha! I actually thought about throwing a couple thousand at that this morning, but my compliance regulators told me I couldn't do it. I hate working for a bank.
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Nov 8, 2016 18:25
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I'm really mad at myself for selling all my FCX when it was at $10.80. Oh well. Loading up on SWHC, hoping it'll pop if HRC wins. Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 18:31 on Nov 8, 2016 |
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Nov 8, 2016 18:24
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In all seriousness, if you don't like outdoor-grown weed, greenhouse/hothouse weed still makes way more sense than weed grown in commercial warehouse space (as if farming in a commercial building would even be legal), and if you're speculating about who will be big in weed once it's nationally legal, I'd be looking at outfits like Monsanto. Or just go down this list and take your pick: http://www.croplife.com/top100/ I'd argue that "trash weed" grown on actual farmland will go up in quality a lot, when big agricultural companies are able to apply the full force of their power to the problem. Certainly industrial hemp, too, but don't underestimate the ability of a multibillion dollar agricultural-product genetic engineering firm to design and deliver high-yield acceptable-quality weed by the millions of tons. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 19:37 on Nov 8, 2016 |
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Nov 8, 2016 19:33
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I eagerly await the day of ©Kelloggs brand weed, being delivered by an autonomous Amazon drone, twenty minutes after I push my Weed button.
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Nov 8, 2016 19:37
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Yeah. I've no doubt luxury craft weed will still be a big industry, and perhaps all those microbrew-like companies will wind up consolidated as brands under an umbrella corp the same way most booze companies are... but Budweiser is the King of Beers for a reason.
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Nov 8, 2016 19:40
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Microbrewery beer infused with the would be neat.
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Nov 8, 2016 19:49
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What should I invest in to anticipate the backlash against BIG WEED(tm)?
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Nov 8, 2016 20:22
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I'm just telling you how it works here in Colorado, it's all grown in old warehousing/manufacturing spaces on the outskirts of town that have access to relatively large amounts of cheap energy. Growing outdoors just isn't done. I mean back when it was first legalized I heard a few places did offer some outdoor grown stuff as their absolute cheapest poo poo option, but I haven't heard of that in a long time. You're imagining Iowa scale corn cultivation maybe in a greenhouse but that's just not how it works. It's a relatively small indoor warehouse business, anything that is not high powered lighting 24x7 just doesn't make as much economic sense.
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Nov 8, 2016 20:28
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Do RS or dilution ever end well for companies? VendaGoat posted:I eagerly await the day of ©Kelloggs brand weed, being delivered by an autonomous Amazon drone, twenty minutes after I push my Weed button. Hahaha. You should patent that weed button ASAP
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Nov 8, 2016 20:29
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Harry Potter on Ice posted:Hahaha. You should patent that weed button ASAP You could name it insta-gram e: oh wait
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Nov 8, 2016 20:57
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I don't think  are going to buy EVIL GMO MONSANTO WEED but that's just me.
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Nov 8, 2016 21:01
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Luigi Thirty posted:I don't think They already buy evil Monsanto stuff all the time w/o knowing it why would this be any different
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Nov 8, 2016 21:23
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Pryor on Fire is right about weed.
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Nov 8, 2016 21:37
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The weed money is in selling weed equipment like extractors.
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Nov 8, 2016 22:09
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Marijuana production is going to look very different once agricorp-sized research budgets turn up.
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Nov 8, 2016 22:57
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Pryor on Fire posted:I'm just telling you how it works here in Colorado, it's all grown in old warehousing/manufacturing spaces on the outskirts of town that have access to relatively large amounts of cheap energy. Growing outdoors just isn't done. I mean back when it was first legalized I heard a few places did offer some outdoor grown stuff as their absolute cheapest poo poo option, but I haven't heard of that in a long time. I'm imagining something like a 100x increase in total consumption nationwide, and I'm imagining that it'll be a nationally-produced product so production will concentrate in the places where it can be grown cheapest. Maybe in Colorado that's in a warehouse, for now, but that's probably because it's very very early days and the hydroponics outfits had a small head start. But there's no technology moat for pot producers and when the industry becomes lucrative and large scale, the big players are going to GMO up that trash weed to get it to the THC content they want and then grow it in the most efficient way possible, which is probably not indoor farms in Colorado. Maybe you're right and this is going to be the one and only major crop on Earth that is exclusively grown under artificial lighting indoors, but I'm really doubtful.
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Nov 8, 2016 23:05
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coffeetable posted:Marijuana production is going to look very different once agricorp-sized research budgets turn up. Yields! I look forward to earnings call discussing THC rendered per acre of cropland, as well as rural radio stations discussing proper NPK balances for marijuana.
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Nov 8, 2016 23:06
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I think maybe greenhouses will be a decent middle ground. I still doubt fully outdoor crops will be very viable. You can GMO all you want there's not much you can really do about the fact that controlling the lighting results in a harvest 10-15x a year versus 1-2x a year with natural light. Idk how you'd prevent fertilization and whatnot even with GMOs. Leperflesh posted:Maybe you're right and this is going to be the one and only major crop on Earth that is exclusively grown under artificial lighting indoors, but I'm really doubtful. I don't think anyone is saying it will be exclusively an indoor artificial light crop. I just don't think vast acres of farmland will be growing weed for personal use like you said earlier. Also as an aside indoor farming even of food crops is getting pretty popular because conditions can be controlled so easily. An indoor farm in Chicago grows lettuce using 98% less water per head versus regular farms and gets them to harvest 15-20 days faster. Besides, food crops aren't valuable enough to justify electricity costs so ofc you don't see widespread indoor farming. A pound of tomatoes is like what, $5? Dispensaries pay thousands per pound for good weed and small differences in the product translate to hundreds of dollars difference per pound. You're essentially talking about saving some operating cost by growing outdoors but running the risk of having to sell your product for waaaay less than it would have otherwise netted you. Even if operating cost is cut by half we're still talking about a difference of a few thousand dollars per pound. Lighting is... what $300/yr per sq meter? That's a negligible cost to be honest if we're talking about a price difference of a couple grand per pound per plant, esp given that indoor grows can flower and harvest the weed 10x a year. If you're growing tomatos then sure it's a huge cost for no reason (essentially a tomato is a tomato is a tomato). Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 23:27 on Nov 8, 2016 |
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Nov 8, 2016 23:12
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Moridin920 posted:I think maybe greenhouses will be a decent middle ground. What you do about it is you grow thousands of acres of it at a time.
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Nov 8, 2016 23:23
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flowinprose posted:What you do about it is you grow thousands of acres of it at a time. Why would I pay the rent on thousands of acres of land and all the farming equipment that entails when literally a tenth of the same warehouse space will give me the exact same yield of a much higher quality product with what is ultimately a negligible difference in operating cost given the higher profit potential of the higher quality weed? Plus to grow weed on that scale outdoors you're either picking buds by hand or using threshers which means you have to replant every time you harvest, the former is costly as hell on that much space and the latter is dumb and wasteful. I mean what are we really talking about here, a couple hundred bucks in electricity cost per sq meter? It's not that prohibitive. Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Nov 8, 2016 |
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Nov 8, 2016 23:30
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