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The Ol Spicy Keychain fucked around with this message at 03:08 on Nov 15, 2016 |
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Nov 15, 2016 03:03
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The Muppets On PCP posted:they're going to lose at minimum 3 senate seats in 2018, possibly up to 7 or 8 I don't think that many really contestable senate seats will be available. The republicans would have to gently caress up real bigly for the democrats to be able to really hope for more than the slimmest majority.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:04
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Lightning Knight posted:Underestimation of the radical racist groups is going to kill a lot of hopes and dreams around here. It's not about whether or not everyone who voted for Trump is racist, it's about the fact that actual, radicalized fascists have been intentionally infiltrating police forces, the military, and the government in this country and now hold an advisory role and directly managed the campaign of the President of the United States. racial justice will be one of the central tenets of the Democratic Party platform.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:04
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Maarek posted:Ah yes the ethno-nationalist fascist party that got 30% of the Latino vote. Probably not after this!
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Nov 15, 2016 03:05
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Lightning Knight posted:Neoliberal capitalism isn't the same thing as fascism and trying to downplay that is a huge strategic error. Neoliberals will fight us. Fascists will murder us. He got about the same share of whites as Romney and outperformed him with Latino and black voters. Was Romney an even bigger ethno-nationalist?
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Nov 15, 2016 03:05
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Tight Booty Shorts posted:racial justice will be one of the central tenets of the Democratic Party platform. That's not what I said. I said don't underestimate the fascists. They're unmistakably in power, regardless of whether or not Trump is a true believers. We're not 1930s Germany yet but we're skirting that line and underestimating how close we are to the brink will get us killed. quote:He got about the same share of whites as Romney and outperformed him with Latino and black voters. Was Romney an even bigger ethno-nationalist? Romney ran on dogwhistle racism, so it was easier to justify voting for him. Trump dragged a lot of that poo poo out into the open and made it mainstream. There's a reason the KKK is celebrating here and embraced Trump in a way they didn't Romney or McCain. It's not because those two weren't racists, it's because Trump gave them legitimacy and a platform.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:05
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My Linux Rig posted:Software design automation replacing software development may happen at some point, but I doubt that's going to happen any time soon. I worked in a Video Game testing company testing a CCG and we spent about 66% of our time each new set writing up "edge cases" for how to test card interactions; as well as "normal cases" before testing said cards. Of these scripts I'd say the "normal" use case test cases were still about 70% of the total, and could easily be automated. I suggested I could actually code up such a program in my spare time if I could perhaps be paid for it. My lead didn't think it was worth my time nor would I be compensated even if I got something that could feasibly work for even 1/3 of the cases and so I never pursued it; but, right before I stopped working because I had a school semester starting up again our client had apparently contacted us and demanded we submit to them a report of what part of our job could be automated with them/us very clearly trying to think of ways to say "Lol no, nothing of this can be automated." even though a large chunk of it obviously can be. I feel like I should've dedicated the time to it anyways in hindsight and maybe have gotten directly hired by that company.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:06
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Lightning Knight posted:That's not what I said. I said don't underestimate the fascists. They're unmistakably in power, regardless of whether or not Trump is a true believers. We're not 1930s Germany yet but we're skirting that line and underestimating how close we are to the brink will get us killed. Aw come on, give the Trumpster a chance. Who knows, you might find out you like him! 
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Nov 15, 2016 03:07
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My Linux Rig posted:Aw come on, give the Trumpster a chance. Who knows, you might find out you like him! I suspect you won't find it funny anymore when one of Trump's appointments actually enacts one of his policy positions with regards to ethnic minorities. It's easy to wash your hands of his platform when they haven't started rounding people up and deporting them.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:08
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Trump ran a right wing populist campaign and still came up short in the popular vote. If he doesn't actually enact some populist policy (does anyone think he will/can?) he will be very vulnerable to any Democratic candidate who doesn't base their campaign inside Park Slope. The danger isn't a Permanent Fascist Majority but how much damage he can do in 4 years and if the Democratic party can avoid nominating another garbage pile candidate to run against him.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:09
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Maarek posted:Ah yes the ethno-nationalist fascist party that got 30% of the Latino vote. Golden Dawn is almost 5% Jewish.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:09
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chumbler posted:I don't think that many really contestable senate seats will be available. The republicans would have to gently caress up real bigly for the democrats to be able to really hope for more than the slimmest majority. I think he meant the Democrats will lose 3-8 seats in 2018. They'll have tight races in OH/FL/PA/WI/VA and have to defend seats in ND/WV/MO/MT which are all solid R now. Democrats have a total of 25 seats up (well, 23 + two independents), Republicans have eight.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:10
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SeANMcBAY posted:I thought that was only in Florida? He got 29% nationally and 36% in Florida.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:11
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Tight Booty Shorts posted:racial justice will be one of the central tenets of the Democratic Party platform. Much like Wall Street Reform and economic justice is a central tenet of the Democratic Party platform now.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:12
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chumbler posted:I don't think that many really contestable senate seats will be available. The republicans would have to gently caress up real bigly for the democrats to be able to really hope for more than the slimmest majority. The bad news is that Dem turnout in 2018 will still be poo poo.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:14
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HorseRenoir posted:At this point, what is the difference between the current GOP platform and ethno-nationalist fascism, besides marketability? Nothing, but it was always supposed to be dog whistled. Establishment GOP since Reagan was always very careful to message in such a way as to court those groups but always allow for plausible deniability. Trump jettisoned all that. Trump losing would have been politically helpful since they could then renounce him and move forward. Him winning doesn't allow them to do that because he's going to be in the oval office. Him appointing Bannon is finally making that connection explicit. Hence hill conservatives suddenly having no idea who Steve Bannon is.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:15
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Omne posted:I think he meant the Democrats will lose 3-8 seats in 2018. They'll have tight races in OH/FL/PA/WI/VA and have to defend seats in ND/WV/MO/MT which are all solid R now. Democrats have a total of 25 seats up (well, 23 + two independents), Republicans have eight. There is 1 potential Democratic senate pickup in 2018. Nevada. The GOP has 11 reasonable pickup opportunities. The odds of the Dems sweeping 12/12 competitive seats (half of which are in very red states like WV, MT, and MO) are very very very low. And if they do sweep all 12 competitive races, they end up with a net of +1 seat.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:15
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Lightning Knight posted:I suspect you won't find it funny anymore when one of Trump's appointments actually enacts one of his policy positions with regards to ethnic minorities. It's easy to wash your hands of his platform when they haven't started rounding people up and deporting them. Don't worry, after the Trumpster is done, you'll wonder why you never voted for him.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:16
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:There is 1 potential Democratic senate pickup in 2018. Nevada. Never mind that any Democrat who can win in a strong red state is probably somebody most people here want to string up from the rooftops right now.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:17
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Lightning Knight posted:That's not what I said. I said don't underestimate the fascists. They're unmistakably in power, regardless of whether or not Trump is a true believers. We're not 1930s Germany yet but we're skirting that line and underestimating how close we are to the brink will get us killed. Well poo poo dude, if you're claiming we are now a fascist dictatorship, then the only solution will be violent revolution. Are you gonna lead us into battle?
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Nov 15, 2016 03:17
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Tight Booty Shorts posted:Well poo poo dude, if you're claiming we are now a fascist dictatorship, then the only solution will be violent revolution. Are you gonna lead us into battle? I specifically said not yet. Trump is an idiot con man. If you aren't massively alarmed by radicalized white supremacists you're a fool. There doesn't need to be that many of them to do a shitload of damage. My Linux Rig posted:Don't worry, after the Trumpster is done, you'll wonder why you never voted for him. You are impressively stupid.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:18
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:There is 1 potential Democratic senate pickup in 2018. Nevada. Yeah, this year was the first reelection term for the 2010 GOP wave and the Democrats only managed to pick up two or three, which might be their second biggest failure of this election.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:18
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chumbler posted:I don't think that many really contestable senate seats will be available. The republicans would have to gently caress up real bigly for the democrats to be able to really hope for more than the slimmest majority. i'm talking about the seats dems will lose
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Nov 15, 2016 03:19
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Were Republicans this defeatist in 2008?
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Nov 15, 2016 03:22
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Fojar38 posted:Were Republicans this defeatist in 2008?
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Nov 15, 2016 03:22
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Fojar38 posted:Were Republicans this defeatist in 2008? Hey hey hey! We're not defeatist! We're just shakin' in our boots!
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Nov 15, 2016 03:25
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Fojar38 posted:Were Republicans this defeatist in 2008? I mean Republicans are driven by FYGMism. If they lose an election they just come back later and eventually they'll win. They're not motivated by "oh poo poo we lost everyone we care about might die now."
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Nov 15, 2016 03:26
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2018 is about the worst possible Senate map for the Dems possible. They already have 4 seats that they barely won in a wave election that are almost certainly gone in 2018: MT, ND, MO, and IN They have potentially competitive races that lean Republican in: WV, OH, and FL They have potentially competitive races that lean Democratic, but could still go Republican in: VA, ME, PA, MI And they have one tossup that is currently Republican in: NV They are going to lose 4 seats in a "best case scenario" and 11 in a "worst case scenario" with the likely outcome somewhere around 6 seats. It's going to be very bad.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:26
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Fojar38 posted:Were Republicans this defeatist in 2008? It's not defeatism. Do you even map, bro? Go look at what senate seats are up in 2018 and you tell me a strategy for Dems sweeping them. House is gerrymandered to hell and back Dems won't control it until we get incredibly invasive electoral reform. poo poo is not going to change on the national level in the next 4 years except for normal Republican factionalism and infighting. The things Dems need to focus on between now and 2020 are flipping state governments and governorships.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:26
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Lightning Knight posted:I suspect you won't find it funny anymore when one of Trump's appointments actually enacts one of his policy positions with regards to ethnic minorities. It's easy to wash your hands of his platform when they haven't started rounding people up and deporting them. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/08/31/u-s-immigrant-deportations-declined-in-2014-but-remain-near-record-high/ we already round up and deport several hundred thousand immigrants a year trump's halfassed plan most likely won't be much different from obama's
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Nov 15, 2016 03:28
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The Muppets On PCP posted:http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/08/31/u-s-immigrant-deportations-declined-in-2014-but-remain-near-record-high/
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Nov 15, 2016 03:29
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spotlessd posted:I, for one, believe that America's first gay Vice President, Michael Richard Pence, deserves the benefit of the doubt and a chance to succeed. William Rufus King is sad you forgot about him, but he gets it.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:30
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Lightning Knight posted:Neoliberal capitalism isn't the same thing as fascism and trying to downplay that is a huge strategic error. Neoliberals will fight us. Fascists will murder us. No I mean literal fascists have actually just been well represented within the ranks of police and military for much longer than either of us have been alive. There's been a minor scandal almost every single year since forever where a pig or a Troop is caught with a bunch of Nazi paraphernalia. The KKK have been informally running a not insignificant number of county level law-enforcement agencies for decades and to this day largely recruit through channels and contacts within the US Military. Bona fide purestrain Nazis who still have their uniforms and membership cards were recruited en masse into a variety of U.S. institutions post-WW2 including defense, intelligence, academia, and media. This isn't any worse now than it was before Trump was elected and none of these alarmist prophecies about the Next Hitler have any basis in anything other than the fact that the Democrats gambled on identitarian rhetoric and lost.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:31
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Lightning Knight posted:I specifically said not yet. Trump is an idiot con man. If you aren't massively alarmed by radicalized white supremacists you're a fool. There doesn't need to be that many of them to do a shitload of damage. He's an idiot con man, and as an immigrant, and someone who's family has already been hurt by the Clintons and Obamas immigration policies, Trump doesn't have us particularly scared.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:33
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Lightning Knight posted:Ok I hit the anger/acceptance stage at work. Here is my big huge pointless effort post no one will read. No one who posts this giant pile of poo poo has any business calling another poster stupid for basically any reason. It's been amazing to watch how many people who were completely wrong about everything for an entire year just start making absurdly wrong predictions a day or two later.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:36
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spotlessd posted:No I mean literal fascists have actually just been well represented within the ranks of police and military for much longer than either of us have been alive. There's been a minor scandal almost every single year since forever where a pig or a Troop is caught with a bunch of Nazi paraphernalia. The KKK have been informally running a not insignificant number of county level law-enforcement agencies for decades and to this day largely recruit through channels and contacts within the US Military. Bona fide purestrain Nazis who still have their uniforms and membership cards were recruited en masse into a variety of U.S. institutions post-WW2 including defense, intelligence, academia, and media. This isn't any worse now than it was before Trump was elected and none of these alarmist prophecies about the Next Hitler have any basis in anything other than the fact that the Democrats gambled on identitarian rhetoric and lost. Does calling police pigs make you feel edgy
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Nov 15, 2016 03:36
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ErIog posted:The things Dems need to focus on between now and 2020 are flipping state governments and governorships. Nah they just focus on what they're good at: losing
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Nov 15, 2016 03:37
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ErIog posted:It's not defeatism. Do you even map, bro? Go look at what senate seats are up in 2018 and you tell me a strategy for Dems sweeping them. House is gerrymandered to hell and back Dems won't control it until we get incredibly invasive electoral reform. poo poo is not going to change on the national level in the next 4 years except for normal Republican factionalism and infighting. like i said, there could always be a huge collapse of the republican government, but if you're at the point where that's what you pin your hopes on, you've got serious problems we really don't know what's going to happen like whether a trump administration will butt heads with congress which has its own agenda, and if so how much of a fight they'll put up the other problem, especially in states which dems lost legislative control is their usual fundraising sources tend to get skittish for the next couple cycles before returning to normal a lot also relies on republicans fielding complete clowns in dem incumbent contests, but as we've seen even that's no guarantee of success. a todd akin or sharron angle could very easily get through in the upcoming midterm
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Nov 15, 2016 03:39
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Obama had a press conference today. Here is the summary: https://twitter.com/simpsons_vids/status/796402505953505280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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Nov 15, 2016 03:41
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Lightning Knight posted:This was quite fascinating but some critiques: I think you will find that ethnic nationalism is very much wide spread and that economics and cultural poo poo are probably what they complain about whenever the chance arises.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:43
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