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Sun Wu Kampf posted:Has Trump said anything publically about Venezuela? He's gonna have to face the potential final collapse of the Venezuelan crisis this January. Usually there's a bit of a lull in Venezuela around the festivities as the government makes absolutely drat sure everyone gets free money to get drunk and buy the kids something to get their minds off the crisis. This of course comes at the cost of substantial inflation and increased debt, it's no wonder the time when the country gets the most heated is during the first months of the year, this of course also coincides with how the recall referendum is going to be officially dead in January. A catalyst of this collapse is, as always, the Venezuelan opposition, who have at long last managed to reach a joint resolution at the "dialogue" table with the government. It encompasses many topics, but if you want just the bullet points, it looks something like this:
As you may have noticed, there is a noticeable absence of anything related to a potential change of government. Nothing about elections, nothing about the recall referendum, and nothing about replacing the TSJ.
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Nov 13, 2016 17:10
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fnox posted:He's gonna have to face the potential final collapse of the Venezuelan crisis this January. Usually there's a bit of a lull in Venezuela around the festivities as the government makes absolutely drat sure everyone gets free money to get drunk and buy the kids something to get their minds off the crisis. This of course comes at the cost of substantial inflation and increased debt, it's no wonder the time when the country gets the most heated is during the first months of the year, this of course also coincides with how the recall referendum is going to be officially dead in January. Torrealba just posted a public letter explaining that the opposition still maintains the same route it set a while ago. According to him, forcing the government to concede on the Amazonas issue guarantees them a supermajority after the elections, which they can use to name two opposition Electoral Council directors, and then either move forward with the recall referendum or call for general elections in 2017. Alongside all that, he expects the opposition to exert pressure via street protests if the government drags its feet. The sheer level of disconnectedness between the opposition leadership and its base has never been more evident. Torrealba is, to put it mildly, daydreaming if he thinks the electorate still retains enough trust in the MUD for this plan to take hold. Even if that weren't the case, the opposition is gambling everything on the Amazonas elections, which the government will find a way to gently caress around with or postpone as much as humanly possible. Certainly far beyond the date where the two CNE directors are expected to retire. It's baffling how the leadership doesn't realize that the government is using the talks to drive a wedge between the opposition and its electorate. At this point I'm forced to think they're either stupid, corrupt, or plain incompetent. I don't see any way in which the MUD – as it is right now – could move forward and regain trust or momentum. By now the government knows that no matter how much the leaders like Capriles, Torrealba, and Allup huff and puff, they'll back down as soon as they dangle the carrot of preventing violence in front of them.
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Nov 13, 2016 17:36
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fnox posted:A catalyst of this collapse is, as always, the Venezuelan opposition, who have at long last managed to reach a joint resolution at the "dialogue" table with the government. It encompasses many topics, but if you want just the bullet points, it looks something like this: It's mind-numbing how absurd this list of "agreements" is. Everything on that list relates to stuff that shouldn't be happening anyway were the government not actively trying to destroy the country. The list boils down to "please don't do all the bad things you're doing". I cannot for one second believe that the PSUV is going to follow through with any of those points beyond the most token gestures. At this rate, we're going to get to December 2018 when the presidential elections are scheduled to take place, and if they do happen at all the MUD will claim victory and say, "We we did! We got the government to agree to hold elections!" :smitsuicide: Labradoodle posted:Torrealba just posted a public letter explaining that the opposition still maintains the same route it set a while ago. According to him, forcing the government to concede on the Amazonas issue guarantees them a supermajority after the elections, which they can use to name two opposition Electoral Council directors, and then either move forward with the recall referendum or call for general elections in 2017. This whole thing is just so  to me. You already won in Amazonas. The government made something up to take those wins away from you. Now you think that the government is going to let you win again? And you don't think that they'll do something else to take those wins away from you again? Sun Wu Kampf posted:Has Trump said anything publically about Venezuela? Redczar posted:The propaganda machine in Venezuela is really efficient, drat. I have an idiot friend that has been in Venezuela for a week (out of a month total), and just told us how the real problems in Venezuela are those drat business owners and that the only people with complaints are on the right. And the only problem is the low minimum wage, but she understands because the government provides so much for people! This person knew nothing of Venezuela before she went. I'm counting the days until the CIA conspiracy theories manifest. Ask your friend to walk into the nearest barrio and ask a mother who only hears from her local PSUV politician come election time what she thinks about the government.
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Nov 13, 2016 17:47
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coupbrick posted:I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks Chavez is still in command. To be fair, that's not far off. I'd bet that you can find more picture of Chavez front and center in government offices than you could find of Maduro. The country is essentially being driven on autopilot on whatever the last setting Chavez had his hands on when he died. (Too bad it wasn't on a good setting.)
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Nov 13, 2016 23:37
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A promise from the opposition to (sigh) fight any attempts at sabotage to the Venezuelan economy. I am guessing this is his way out. If the economy improves he can take credit for it; if it doesn't he can say is is due to sabatoging of the economy and tear up the agreement in its entirety. The vagueness of that agreement make it no better than toilet paper.
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Nov 14, 2016 02:42
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Chuck Boone posted:Just to give you an example of what I mean by this, a couple of months ago a pran who had served his time and been released got into some trouble with the law and he escaped into his own prison to get away from the authorities. He fled into a prison to escape the police. The prison was called PGV and the pran's name was Franklin, if you're interested in looking the case up. I was trying to look up this story. Is this it? http://efectococuyo.com/principales/pran-que-organizo-secuestro-en-la-pgv-usa-el-penal-como-refugio I can't actually read Spanish so I don't know if that site is legit, I just saw a story on google that had "penal" and "refugio" in the title 
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Nov 14, 2016 22:06
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Yes! That is exactly the case I was referring to. I'm sorry that I couldn't link it at the time in my post. Thank you for finding it.
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Nov 14, 2016 23:03
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owDAWG posted:The vagueness of that agreement make it no better than toilet paper. Isn't toilet paper very scarce and valuable there at the moment? I imagine a proper roll would be much preferable to whatever paper this is written on.
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Nov 16, 2016 08:59
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The Amazonas deputies stepped down today. I just don't get it. Why would anybody in Amazonas vote MUD again? Why would anybody accept this? What exactly did the MUD win out of this travesty?
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Nov 16, 2016 16:54
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fnox posted:The Amazonas deputies stepped down today. A poo poo load of money straight from the PSUV's coffers.
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Nov 16, 2016 17:32
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fnox posted:The Amazonas deputies stepped down today. Don't worry, they'll of course win those seats the next time elections are held again. Oh, wait. Elections were cancelled indefinitely "due to economic crisis." To be honest it doesn't matter — it's not like they could do anything with a supermajority. The MUD has been wholly incapable of (a) achieving even symbolic victories, or (b) putting the spin on any problems to make the blame (correctly) face the government. In fact if anything it's good for them—now they can blame their complete ineffectualness on the lack of a supermajority, and not because they're a bunch of impotent fuckups who couldn't do anything even with the Amazonas deputies. It's a nice excuse for them to fail. You're thinking as if there's some way for them to save Venezuela, when everyone at the top is already madly trying to eat each other and put as much money in Miami as possible before the music stops.
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Nov 16, 2016 17:45
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The Supreme Court issued a ruling last night banning the "calling and carrying out of events that alter public order", which many are understanding to mean "calling for/organizing and attending protests". The ruling is likely a way for the PSUV to give itself justification for taking action against the next opposition leader that announces a protest. I don't know exactly what action that would be, but I presume that you could be found in contempt of the ruling and punished accordingly for organizing a protest. I feel almost silly saying this, but just so that it goes on record here: the ruling is 100% in violation of Article 68 of the constitution, which grants every Venezuelan "the right to demonstrate peacefully and without weapons". fnox posted:The Amazonas deputies stepped down today.
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Nov 16, 2016 18:00
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Banks aren't paying checks worth more than $10 lol it has begun and the bank superintendency ordered banks not to pay or allow anyone to withdraw more than $5 daily starting next month.
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Nov 17, 2016 18:01
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El Hefe posted:Banks aren't paying checks worth more than $10 lol it has begun and the bank superintendency ordered banks not to pay or allow anyone to withdraw more than $5 daily starting next month. You know I read this and was like "Oh man that is terrible, like India is going to destroy the poor and those in a cash based system" and then I was like "Oh wait there is already no god drat food or medicine in the whole country that isn't being seized by the crooks in power." poo poo just goes from bad to worse and the MUD is the most useless opposition I have ever seen.
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Nov 17, 2016 18:54
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So Lorenzo Mendoza is being held at the Barquisimeto Airport by... the National Institute of Civil Aviation, according to Empresas Polar's Twitter. No information yet as to why he's being held, or why that particular agency detained him.
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Nov 17, 2016 21:07
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Harassment They also had his house and office raided by SEBIN a few weeks ago
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Nov 17, 2016 21:33
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It's more that I wonder what the official
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Nov 17, 2016 21:46
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beer_war posted:It's more that I wonder what the official Sometimes they tell people that they're just following orders, I'm sure most of these airport workers hate it when they're told they have to do this poo poo but they really have no option unless they don't want to work in the public sector ever again and forget about getting a pension.
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Nov 17, 2016 21:54
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/17/venezuela-nicolas-maduro-dictatorship-elections-jeremy-corbyn?CMP=share_btn_tw Seeing this on The Guardian of all places gives me some hope that maybe someday a serious international agency will denounce Maduro for what he is.
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Nov 18, 2016 00:41
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fnox posted:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/17/venezuela-nicolas-maduro-dictatorship-elections-jeremy-corbyn?CMP=share_btn_tw Dear lord some of the comments on that article
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Nov 18, 2016 01:10
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On happier news, the government released Rosmit Mantilla. He's a member of Voluntad Popular (Leopoldo's party) and LGBT activist that was held as a political prisoner for two and a half years. He actually won a seat in the National Assembly while being imprisoned and recently had to be treated for an urological condition caused by his prison conditions. After rushing him to a hospital a couple of weeks ago, the government threw him back into his cell without letting him see a doctor, only to rush him back out later and taking him to the Caracas Military Hospital when his condition worsened. Apparently, the MUD refused to sit down for the latest round of negotiations until Rosmit had been cleared to be moved to another hospital and with the Vatican breathing down their neck, they just let him go altogether. The negotiations may have been a complete failure so far, but at least the MUD actually stood up for something this time.
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Nov 18, 2016 17:18
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The jury in the Flores nephews case has been deliberating since about 11:30 AM EST time. They might come back with a verdict at any moment. Today we get to find out if the DEA/CIA/Haiti/Mexican Drug Cartel/US Department of Justice conspiracy scores another victory against the Bolivarian Revolution.
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Nov 18, 2016 17:56
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how is venezuela still not collapsed? I mean reading this thread is like a sad slide down a mountain but we never seem to hit bottom
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Nov 18, 2016 21:46
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Because the collapse of a country isn't a sudden thing like a collapsing wall, but a long, painful process.
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Nov 18, 2016 21:48
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I'm surprised we made it to the end of the year tbh
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Nov 18, 2016 21:49
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Does anyone know what the situation is like right now in Margarita, Coro, or Punto Fijo? I haven't been back to Venezuela in years, but I have to go to handle some paperwork, and was thinking of buying a house for my mother while I'm there. She doesn't want to leave the country, and she's in Caracas, with the bsf the way it is, I think I could easily afford a house if I could find someone to exchange the money "al cambio negro".
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Nov 18, 2016 23:01
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El Hefe posted:I'm surprised we made it to the end of the year tbh It's not over yet.
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Nov 18, 2016 23:04
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lemonslol posted:Does anyone know what the situation is like right now in Margarita, Coro, or Punto Fijo? I haven't been back to Venezuela in years, but I have to go to handle some paperwork, and was thinking of buying a house for my mother while I'm there. She doesn't want to leave the country, and she's in Caracas, with the bsf the way it is, I think I could easily afford a house if I could find someone to exchange the money "al cambio negro". I dunno about Coro or Punto Fijo but from what I've heard, Margarita has been hit real bad by the lack of water and basic item shortages. The water situation alone would make me think twice about buying a house there, even if it's dirt cheap. You're probably better off looking at bigger cities, since then it'd be easier for your mum to find the stuff she needs. Also, while prices may be cheap, we're not talking about a couple thousand dollars cheap. More like dozens if it's in a city and no one is going to give you all that money in cash. You'd need a truck to move it. If anyone is selling, chances are that it's because they're leaving the country and you probably can work out a payment via wire transfer to an overseas account.
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Nov 18, 2016 23:07
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lemonslol posted:Does anyone know what the situation is like right now in Margarita, Coro, or Punto Fijo? I haven't been back to Venezuela in years, but I have to go to handle some paperwork, and was thinking of buying a house for my mother while I'm there. She doesn't want to leave the country, and she's in Caracas, with the bsf the way it is, I think I could easily afford a house if I could find someone to exchange the money "al cambio negro". The living conditions in any of those places is way worse than Caracas, they barely get any water and there are constant power outages, she's only going to have it harder in other cities, problem with Caracas is crime of course but she'll be able to actually find food and poo poo. You can probably find a nice place to buy her for $100k or so and plenty of people are gonna want USD rather than our worthless bolivares anyway so no need to exchange currency.
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Nov 18, 2016 23:14
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lemonslol posted:Does anyone know what the situation is like right now in Margarita, Coro, or Punto Fijo? I haven't been back to Venezuela in years, but I have to go to handle some paperwork, and was thinking of buying a house for my mother while I'm there. She doesn't want to leave the country, and she's in Caracas, with the bsf the way it is, I think I could easily afford a house if I could find someone to exchange the money "al cambio negro". If you need a house there's no better time to buy one than now, you can get a legitimate mansion at some of the nicest neighborhoods in Caracas for very reasonable prices.
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Nov 18, 2016 23:29
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Efrain and Francisco have been found guilty of conspiracy to import cocaine into the US. Sentencing is scheduled for March 7. I believe they are facing 10 years to life. The verdict was just read about 30 minutes ago. Maduro, Cilia and a bunch of other people implicated in the drug trade must be feeling pretty bummed out right now.
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Nov 19, 2016 00:45
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Thanks guys. My issue is that she keeps saying everything is fine, and that she doesn't want to leave. When I left crime was terrible, I got sequestrado-express before I made the decision to left, and all of my family has left by now. but I guess for my mom: Patria o muerte.
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Nov 19, 2016 00:58
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Neither Chuo nor the MUD have said a peep about the narcosobrinos' sentence. Instead, Carlos Ocariz, in what is perhaps the fastest fall from grace I've seen in Venezuelan politics, is now calling for a (sigh) clandestine signature recollection around the country in two weeks, to present those signatures to the TSJ to justify their demand for a referendum. The response to that has been, as expected, nothing but outrage. At this point I'd rather have Nacho as loving president rather than any politician, MUD or otherwise. Their dishonesty is unprecedented even for politicians.
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Nov 19, 2016 16:05
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They haven't said anything because they are in the PSUV's pocket.
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Nov 19, 2016 18:22
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3 armed men tried to kidnap my parents yesterday. I found out today through a Whatsapp message since I'm safe and sound a continent away; had they been killed right there, I would have been the last to know about it. What a loving disgrace of a country.
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Nov 20, 2016 15:43
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fnox posted:3 armed men tried to kidnap my parents yesterday. I found out today through a Whatsapp message since I'm safe and sound a continent away; had they been killed right there, I would have been the last to know about it. What a loving disgrace of a country. That kind of poo poo doesn't even register, there's not even a point in going to the police either since we all know they're not gonna investigate poo poo.
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Nov 20, 2016 16:57
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The National Assembly is going to discuss the Flores' conviction next week. Opposition deputy Ismael Garcia said that they were going to strip Cilia Flores of her parliamentary immunity since there is good reason to believe that she may have been involved in some serious crimes (namely, financing her National Assembly campaign with drug money as per Francisco's confession). We've all seen this movie, though, so we know exactly how it's going to go: National Assembly will do something -> the TSJ will immediately declare it unconstitutional, null and void -> nothing will happen. fnox posted:3 armed men tried to kidnap my parents yesterday. I found out today through a Whatsapp message since I'm safe and sound a continent away; had they been killed right there, I would have been the last to know about it. What a loving disgrace of a country. I went to an apartment building yesterday to view some units for rent, and I could tell the second I started talking to the rental agent that she spoke Spanish. When I asked her where she was from, she said "Venezuela". She told me that she'd worked as a PDVSA engineer, but that she was fired in 2003 after the oil strike along with 18,000 other PDVSA workers. She lost her career and was forced to leave Venezuela with her family. She was really nice, but she carried a kind of sadness with her that hung pretty heavy in our conversation. Later in the day I told my father about the woman I'd met, and we started to talk about how there are so many Venezuelans around these parts now. Then we started to talk about our own family. 20 years ago we all celebrated Christmas together, and now we're spread across six countries, and we talked about how we would probably never have the luxury of saying that we spent the holidays with the people we love.
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Nov 20, 2016 17:08
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Chuck Boone posted:
I can't even imagine the National Assembly even trying to pass such a law or motion. They won't even do that, they're completely cowed and bought out by now. Glad to hear everything "worked out" Fnox, in as much as a failed kidnapping can work out. Are your parents planning on leaving the country yet?
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Nov 20, 2016 18:42
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Where do Venezuelans now flee to mostly? Can you get living permissions in Europe or do you need to take asylum? In general it is drat hard to get residence in EU and USA as well. I suppose refugee status is always possible, but the issue then is that it may be a one time try.
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Nov 20, 2016 20:00
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caps on caps on caps posted:Where do Venezuelans now flee to mostly? Can you get living permissions in Europe or do you need to take asylum? In general it is drat hard to get residence in EU and USA as well. I suppose refugee status is always possible, but the issue then is that it may be a one time try. anecdotally, other latin american countries, north america/europe other spanish-speaking countries are going to be easiest for those who don't have a second language to fall back on. i know there was a huge venezuelan immigrant population the last few times i went to spain
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Nov 20, 2016 20:18
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