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Ron Jeremy posted:Japanese victory necessarily has to be a political victory. A big victory like i mentioned has to include a rethinking of naval policy. The Americans already did this in the IRL timeline when they were unable to reinforce the Philippines like they planned to prewar. A theoretical us navy comes off that big loss and must re-evaluate. They could refocus and prosecute the war with their fleet submarines operating from the west coast and Australia and India. They could wait for their industrial capacity to catch up and try to re-fight the same battle in a year or two. What happens though if they can no longer supply pearl? I don't think a separate peace is out of the question. Can't resupply Pearl? That's an absurd proposition. The Japanese navy was physically incapable of putting more than a dent into the American merchant marine combined with their shipbulding frenzy. There's a reason why the Pacific was considered a secondary priority in American strategic planning.
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Nov 23, 2016 02:40
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steinrokkan posted:Can't resupply Pearl? That's an absurd proposition. The Japanese navy was physically incapable of putting more than a dent into the American merchant marine combined with their shipbulding frenzy. In hindsight sure. But I'm assuming the American fleet carriers are sunk. If that battle takes place at midway, the ijn has midway and naval superiority in the north central pacific. Then next logical step is to deny Pearl supply. Hell, the US was bunkering up Hawaii hard for an invasion. As for the Germany first strategy, that was driven by close political ties to Europe as well as the not irrational notion that the west coast was immune to invasion.
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Nov 23, 2016 03:20
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The thing is that not only was the West Coast immune to invasion, so was Hawaii, even by the time Midway rolled around. Even at full strength, and with the US Carrier fleet obliterated, the entire Japanese navy simply did not have the logistical or staying power to pound Hawaii into submission. By June of 1942, Hawaii was defended by nearly 100,000 American troops, with hundreds upon hundreds of aircraft, more than Japan could have brought to bear even with every carrier in their fleet deployed. At best, they might have raided the convoys that shipped supplies into Hawaii, but they did not have the staying power to be able to blockade Hawaii effectively, particularly not given the submarine doctrine they were using. Hawaii was regarded by PACCOM as asset without which waging the war was impossible, and the US was willing to throw Atlantic-style convoys into the mix to fight supplies through if necessary. With or without Germany first, with or without local Naval superiority, Japan would never have taken Hawaii, and consequently could never have forced the US to abandon the war.
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Nov 23, 2016 04:06
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 I agree generally, but even in the irl timeline, the us did bunker the hell out of Hawaii. As to whether the Japanese could have blockaded Hawaii, I agree that they were at the end of their logical reach. Otoh, that would be the sole focus of the war effort in a timeline that has the ijn in control of the central pacific. So yeah it's a stretch, but that's my turtle dove path to Japanese victory. Early mahanian victory against the us navy, successful oil blockade of Pearl Harbor, Washington seeks terms.
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Nov 23, 2016 04:15
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Velius posted:That's not one I've seen, it's not the njp va wargmr ones that much I know. I'd love to read it though. Same.
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Nov 23, 2016 04:18
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Ron Jeremy posted:
Even in Turtledove's Pacific War book, after pulling off a totally insane Pearl Harbor invasion that takes Oahu, the Japanese still end up losing the islands when the US launches a massive counterattack in late 1943. The series ends there, though, so it's unclear how the rest of the war pans out.
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Nov 23, 2016 04:18
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   If I can't invade, then I can at least interdict.   Hi! I decided to avoid Port Moresby due to the risk of mines.  This is just to prove I do have sub hunters out – they normally fail to do anything though. Oh wait, that's what this one did.   Akyab continues to be no man's land. They try and resupply, and we send out the Bettys.  I think this may be a Scottish convoy....   Enemy losses here are increasing.   A few more kills. The carriers reach Rabaul and now begin their run to Japan.  Och owe me shippin!
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Nov 23, 2016 06:26
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Congrats and good luck! Nicely played so far and do appreciate the tons of work you put into this Grey! It's always a fun read late in the evening to come in and see your update. Amazing game so far and hope it keeps on going! Good luck with fortifying the Pacific and further shenanigans whatever you get to work on.
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Nov 23, 2016 06:59
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These amazing scenarios do all still rely on amazing Japanese players replacing the Japanese leadership on both a military and economic level, with no equivalent Allied boost (though the Allied player can hide their fleets); and several minor factors being biased in Japan's favor. If Japan had been a hyper-competent nation it would have had a slim chance. But then they probably would've just stuck to Korea and Manchuria and looked for options. Like they could've joined the Allies and picked up some minor islands from Vichy or insisted on payment in thr form of land. It just made way more sense to buy their oil from the allies and just use their fleets less. There would always have been chances to take the colonies later whether the colonies rebelled or their mother nation went to war with the wrong enemy or such rather than declaring war on two thirds of the developed world. Instead we have the IJA and IJN a magnitude short of open interservice conflict. The allies were just more functional, despite their lack of will to fight. RA Rx fucked around with this message at 14:13 on Nov 23, 2016 |
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Nov 23, 2016 07:18
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I saw an AAR once upon a time where the players agreed on some interesting house rule victory conditions that I don't entirely remember, but the gist of it was that the Allied player would have to maintain lines of communication to The Philippines. In exchange, Japan's player couldn't attack any US territory, so no Pearl Harbor attacks. If they did, the game would play out as normal. The idea was that with no surprise bloodshed on US soil, public opinion would consider it more of a limited colonial war, and leadership would have much more difficulty selling a goal of unconditional surrender than they did in our timeline. Of course, those assumptions ignored everything going on in Europe, but hey, that's a different game 
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Nov 23, 2016 07:31
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RA Rx posted:These amazing scenarios do all still rely on amazing Japanese players replacing the Japanese leadership on both a military and economic level, with no equivalent Allied boost (though the Allied player can hide their fleets); and several minor factors being biased in Japan's favor. The problem with that is the Philippines. Japan's leadership believed that a well-fortified and supplied Philippines would have been an impregnable fortress and unsinkable aircraft carrier perfectly positioned to take everything Japan wanted away at any time. The Philippines in US hands (and it is questionable when or even if the US would have granted Filipino independence with a powerful Japanese Empire right next door) was a pistol pressed against the Empire's belly, and had to go.
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Nov 23, 2016 15:22
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22 November 1942 Russian destroyer Sokrushitelny, foundered in heavy weather in the Barents Sea after a wave tore off her stern while she was escorting convoy QP 15.
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Nov 23, 2016 16:25
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Just marathoned this lp to catch up after a year and a half of not reading and came in just in time to watch the Americans sink to the bottom of the Pacific! Congrats on a reasonably good year so far Grey, hope you have 4 more left in ya! 
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Nov 23, 2016 18:20
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OpenlyEvilJello posted:22 November 1942 If only it had been the bow that got torn off... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3m5qxZm_JqM
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Nov 23, 2016 18:22
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  The flak is doing more damage, but its not deterring the enemy attacks.  At least we're doing damage though!  Our men sail across the river and take the city with ease! Three layers of forts are barely even a bump in the road.  The Chinese commanders panic, and send in an attack at Chunking that loses men at a ten to one rate.  We finally finish marching across Guadalcanal to accept the surrender of the remaining Marines.  An actual good day on the ground for once! I'm as surprised as you are. We killed over a hundred points of ground assets.
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Nov 23, 2016 19:05
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So does capturing that city allow your forces at Chunkiang to finally receive supplies again, of do you need to also capture Kweiyang? Also, good job capturing Tassafaronga. Building an airfield there and at the other hex on Guadalcanal would go a long way toward to disrupting the Allied naval forces in the area. I mean hell, just imagine stocking it full of torpedoes and Betties!
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Nov 23, 2016 19:29
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RA Rx posted:These amazing scenarios do all still rely on amazing Japanese players replacing the Japanese leadership on both a military and economic level, with no equivalent Allied boost (though the Allied player can hide their fleets); and several minor factors being biased in Japan's favor. The option to buy oil from the Allies doesn't really exist though. The embargo is really what precipitates the Pacific War in the first place; getting oil means stopping their colonial adventures in China, which was fundamentally unacceptable to the Japanese leadership. Even if we assume a Gay White Emperor with unlimited powers, convincing Japan that it doesn't get to be a colonial power in the 30s is the same as saying they don't get to be a world power, as good as the whiteys. You can't sell that without a time machine to show them just how ruinous the true Pacific War will be. PittTheElder fucked around with this message at 19:51 on Nov 23, 2016 |
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Nov 23, 2016 19:49
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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PittTheElder posted:The option to buy oil from the Allies doesn't really exist though. The embargo is really what precipitates the Pacific War in the first place; getting oil means stopping their colonial adventures in China, which was fundamentally unacceptable to the Japanese leadership. Even if we assume a Gay White Emperor with unlimited powers, convincing Japan that it doesn't get to be a colonial power in the 30s is the same as saying they don't get to be a world power, as good as the whiteys. You can't sell that without a time machine to show them just how ruinous the true Pacific War will be. I think you misunderstood what they were saying, because the message I got is pretty much what you said. RA Rx was saying that Gay Black Hirohito with a 21st century history textbook would have been better off buddying up with the Allies (including backing off of China for a decade or two), and waiting until the 50's for the European empires to fall apart. Then they could build the Co-Prosperity Sphere out of all the newly independent and unstable Asian nations.
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Nov 23, 2016 20:18
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Crazycryodude posted:I think you misunderstood what they were saying, because the message I got is pretty much what you said. RA Rx was saying that Gay Black Hirohito with a 21st century history textbook would have been better off buddying up with the Allies (including backing off of China for a decade or two), and waiting until the 50's for the European empires to fall apart. Then they could build the Co-Prosperity Sphere out of all the newly independent and unstable Asian nations. Unfortunately, there's no savescumming allowed in history.
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Nov 23, 2016 21:12
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Crazycryodude posted:I think you misunderstood what they were saying, because the message I got is pretty much what you said. RA Rx was saying that Gay Black Hirohito with a 21st century history textbook would have been better off buddying up with the Allies (including backing off of China for a decade or two), and waiting until the 50's for the European empires to fall apart. Then they could build the Co-Prosperity Sphere out of all the newly independent and unstable Asian nations. That makes no sense either, the post-colonial nations weren't just waiting to be gobbled up by another Empire, and the Japanese idea of "co-prosperity" wasn't built on voluntary cooperation, it was inherently a hierarchical plan. It's ludicrous to imagine that either the newly independent nations, or their former overlords would have allowed a hostile takeover of a huge portion of the world, especially if the Cold War was going on in that particular alternate history. Also remember that the Chinese in cooperation with Russia gave a run for their money to the UN forces in Korea, imagine what would have happened had the Japanese tried a similar campaign on their own, against a Soviet sponsored China (and the Soviets would have sponsored either side of the civil war after their victory). If anything in the 1950s, after the reconsolidation of China and the end of war in Europe, Japan would have been relegated to global periphery for good, and the knowledge of this is what drove Japanese leadership to war.
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Nov 23, 2016 22:41
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No no don't you know that history is like Paradox games? As long as the Japs have a valid CB and whoever they're attacking isn't sphered they'll be fine.
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Nov 23, 2016 23:01
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except that after ww2 a global event fired and EVERYONE was sphered by either the US or USSR.
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Nov 23, 2016 23:38
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What's AirFMFPac? Marine air base crew?
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Nov 23, 2016 23:48
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Veloxyll posted:except that after ww2 a global event fired and EVERYONE was sphered by either the US or USSR. 
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Nov 24, 2016 00:08
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Nov 24, 2016 00:37
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Veloxyll posted:except that after ww2 a global event fired and EVERYONE was sphered by either the US or USSR. Someone make an Albanian flag with a crying bunker
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Nov 24, 2016 01:40
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The Matrix sale is here, WITP:AE is just $52. Cheap! http://www.matrixgames.com/news/982/Matrix.Games.Holiday.Sale.is.Here! The more you buy, the more you save! Please lord, continue to give me strength not to buy it.
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Nov 24, 2016 16:32
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It is actually $40: http://www.matrixgames.com/store/351/War.in.the.Pacific.-.Admiral's.Edition
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Nov 24, 2016 16:57
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  Bloody bombers.  I like that after a month of fighting, these guys are not prepared. “OH GOD THEIR ATTACKING AGAIN! WHAT DO WE DO?”  Nanning is going our way. It will just take a little time.  Things quieten down as my ships have to wander off to be repaired. The odd thing is the 89 operational losses on a day where the enemy has not had many planes in the air – could it be one of the enemy carriers (Enterprise?) has sunk from damage? We get a 193 point jump, but most of that is base points. A bit of a mystery.  We do get a new carrier though. Well, light plane holder. Grey Hunter fucked around with this message at 06:41 on Nov 25, 2016 |
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Nov 24, 2016 17:45
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Looks like you sunk the carrier then. Congrats, the Allies won't have carrier parity until something like late 1943. Unless you count the lovely britcarriers.
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Nov 24, 2016 19:29
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If the carrier finally sank it wouldn't surprise me if it were stuck somewhere remote without enough fuel to make it back. I don't know how many fleet oilers the American's would have had at this point in the pacific but if they can't get a carrier refueled away from port (assuming that's what happened here) then holy poo poo are they in trouble. edit: and from what you've posted before regarding the operational losses it sounds like they have also lost about three carrier's worth of airgroups, and considering that you were able to rebase their planes from the sinking carriers makes this entire operation a giant loss for the Americans. zetamind2000 fucked around with this message at 21:58 on Nov 24, 2016 |
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Nov 24, 2016 21:48
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If a ship runs out of fuel at sea, is there no possibility of towing it to port or a fleet oiler?
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Nov 24, 2016 22:42
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RZApublican posted:If the carrier finally sank it wouldn't surprise me if it were stuck somewhere remote without enough fuel to make it back. I don't know how many fleet oilers the American's would have had at this point in the pacific but if they can't get a carrier refueled away from port (assuming that's what happened here) then holy poo poo are they in trouble. Grey sank two fleet oilers in that battle, so this is entirely possible. Grats on getting that decisive battle the IJN could never secure OTL.
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Nov 24, 2016 23:25
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Kopijeger posted:If a ship runs out of fuel at sea, is there no possibility of towing it to port or a fleet oiler? A ship can always move one hex, even if out of fuel.
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Nov 24, 2016 23:52
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Is it possible they just had to ditch their airframes but are still afloat?
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Nov 24, 2016 23:56
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Crazycryodude posted:I think you misunderstood what they were saying, because the message I got is pretty much what you said. RA Rx was saying that Gay Black Hirohito with a 21st century history textbook would have been better off buddying up with the Allies (including backing off of China for a decade or two), and waiting until the 50's for the European empires to fall apart. Then they could build the Co-Prosperity Sphere out of all the newly independent and unstable Asian nations. I guess, but even this is pretty out there; without the Pacific War temporarily displacing the authority of the Colonial Powers, it's far from certain that decolonization happens as rapidly as it did. I mean any strategy would probably be better than the one adopted, but assuming that a less aggressive approach still lets them build a Co-prosperity Sphere in any short to medium time frame is pretty dubious.
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Nov 25, 2016 00:02
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24 November 1942 Japanese destroyer Hayashio, sunk by US aircraft in Huon Gulf, New Guinea.
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Nov 25, 2016 02:25
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pthighs posted:A ship can always move one hex, even if out of fuel. Note that it'll take system damage as it does this though, and enough systems damage will eventually kill the ship, especially if it has any major flotation damage.
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Nov 25, 2016 03:26
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Huh, yeah on that operational loss. Looks weird. Congrats though - that still seems to be another air group out of action at the very least. And it doesn't seem like (at least in the pictures of the air battle) that the Enterprise took any significant hits - even while withdrawing she was doing airstrikes on some of the nearby convoys.
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Nov 25, 2016 05:41
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wedgekree posted:Huh, yeah on that operational loss. Looks weird. Congrats though - that still seems to be another air group out of action at the very least. Enterprise got torpedoed and took at least one bomb.
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Nov 25, 2016 06:14
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