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The Puppy Bowl posted:Yup. Messaging the leisure society seems like an impossible task when 80% of America has work=money=worth drilled into their heads as a core value. I have no idea how to fix it and haven't heard from anyone who does.
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Nov 24, 2016 21:38
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The first step is to reduce the hours anyone needs to work to live.
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Nov 24, 2016 21:39
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FactsAreUseless posted:The only way society will survive is if we rethink the work=eat equation, and I don't know how to do that. Trade deal with China that gives us all free soylent in exchange for letting them dump as much lead in it as they want.
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Nov 24, 2016 21:40
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Good Citizen posted:People who say accounting is going to get automated any time soon don't understand accounting in a post-SOX world. Sure AP clerks and the like are going away but there is waaaay too much judgement for computers to fully take over in the mid to upper levels in the next decade I'm a new hire at a big 4 firm in assest management. Do taxes for hedge funds. Risk?
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Nov 24, 2016 21:41
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Mustached Demon posted:It's hitting the land of chemistry, too. Inline analysis baby! I wondered if that might happen. Glad i didnt take up that analyst apprenticeship at the pharma. testing and analysis company! Now to find a field where my uh innate skills will keep me forever ahead of the curve..
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Nov 24, 2016 21:41
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I got $50,000 of debt total and for a geology bachelor's, mainly because I wanted to study earthquakes. I changed my mind when I realized most of that research requires a car, it's going to take a lot longer than I thought to save up for one, and I couldn't get a minimum wage job despite applying to like 50 places for a month. I keep hearing about how it will continue to take 70-80 hours or more a week with a good chance that suddenly you'll hear "funding has dried up, so your project has been cancelled." All my life I'd been wanting to get into some "help save the world" kind of job like virology. During my last semester I got a job at Amazon with four 10-hour days, and I slept 1 or 2 hours a night between getting home from work and starting classes. To get to Amazon and back, I spent an hour's paycheck on a cab each way, and there were a few people there during the same thing. During the "all hands meeting", where all the employees for a shift meet in the lunch room where they can voice concerns to people ranking higher than manager, someone else asked about a loans program. There was a mom who was proud her daughter was driving a forklift at a Starbucks warehouse and getting free coffee for it. During the training session, they mentioned Amazon potentially paying for long-term employees to go back to school for an Associate's in a trade. It was all kind of sad. I got by using small loans with 50% interest from Reddit, all of which I paid back. There was a $80,000/yr engineering consultant in Washington, D.C. who offered to help who came off as pretty condescending. She asked if I had a budget, and I'd always kept one, but I said not lately, because I was so on the edge I only had food left to compromise, and I never knew how much money I would have that week, so it was difficult to pace it out. She went into how it's not my fault I'm dumb with money because I probably got it from my parents who were also poor. She asked if I was sure that my professors, who had talked about some grad school courses that'd be good for studying earthquakes, weren't just out to get my money. I'll always think of it when I think about the disconnect with well-meaning people in D.C. Even though I hear "you can make a lot of money" with an advanced geology degree, it slowly sank in that down that path probably lies a slow march downward to homelessness and starvation. I switched to web development. It's great. While the world goes to pieces from climate change, etc., at least I stand a chance of not going under, and everyone who doesn't will be able to distract themselves from it.
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Nov 24, 2016 21:43
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Good Citizen posted:People who say accounting is going to get automated any time soon don't understand accounting in a post-SOX world. Sure AP clerks and the like are going away but there is waaaay too much judgement for computers to fully take over in the mid to upper levels in the next decade Nobody is actually worried about the high end work (in any field) being fully automated any time soon, though. All you need for a major employment crisis is to lose a few percent of all available jobs at the lower end. It's also not too great if you're only confident about the next decade. The point where white collar automation starts having more than subtle effects is probably at least a decade out anyway. Paradoxish fucked around with this message at 21:49 on Nov 24, 2016 |
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Nov 24, 2016 21:47
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Paradoxish posted:Nobody is actually worried about the high end work (in any field) being fully automated any time soon, though. All you need for a major employment crisis is to lose a few percent of all available jobs at the lower end. Lower end / entry level work yeah.
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Nov 24, 2016 21:49
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Covok posted:I'm a new hire at a big 4 firm in assest management. Do taxes for hedge funds. Risk? Your biggest risk is a major simplification of the tax code, not automation. Just like my biggest risk is a dismantling of the PCAOB and other accounting regulatory agencies, not automation.
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Nov 24, 2016 21:50
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Joementum posted:Trade deal with China that gives us all free soylent in exchange for letting them dump as much lead in it as they want.
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Nov 24, 2016 21:51
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FactsAreUseless posted:The first step is to reduce the hours anyone needs to work to live. This should be popular with the corporate masters as minimum wage rises, yeah?
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Nov 24, 2016 21:53
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citybeatnik posted:Lower end / entry level work yeah. Yeah, automation discussions are always weird because people immediately think that you're talking about robots taking all the jobs. Unemployment peaked at around 10% in the US following the last recession. It peaked at 25% during the Great Depression, and our economy is drastically more consumer driven now than it was in the 1930s. 10-15% unemployment extended out over a decade with no future job prospects would be catastrophic on an unimaginable level. I'm not even sure if it's possible for that to be a stable level of unemployment given the amount of damage that would be done to the wider economy by such a drastic drop in consumer spending over such a long period of time.
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Nov 24, 2016 21:56
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The interesting thing about automation is that it needs to be worthwhile to spend on the infrastructure. The fight for $15 will inevitably lead to more automation in the service sector. Not that that's a bad thing. Four Futures is a cool book on this.
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Nov 24, 2016 21:59
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Die Sexmonster! posted:This should be popular with the corporate masters as minimum wage rises, yeah?
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Nov 24, 2016 21:59
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FactsAreUseless posted:We have to reach a point where we can demonstrate that society will continue if people don't work, and that we can realistically provide people with a living not based on work. That means we have to automate to a point where if a large portion of the country walks off their jobs, nothing stops working. We're not there yet. We still rely on menial labor. It's probably not possible before we reach post-scarcity. We probably won't see it in our lifetimes but within the next century is possible. Cheap clean renewable energy freeing us from the scarcity of fossil fuels is the first step. We could make significant progress towards that over the next few decades.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:00
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size1one posted:It's probably not possible before we reach post-scarcity. We probably won't see it in our lifetimes but within the next century is possible. Cheap clean renewable energy freeing us from the scarcity of fossil fuels is the first step. We could make significant progress towards that over the next few decades.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:01
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I doubt Automation in the legal field isn't going to be that big of a concern. Most law is done at small firms and they don't usually have the capital to invest in cutting edge neural network research networks. That and lawyers largely get to set their own rules and would just ban automation because it "poses a danger to the sanctity of the attorney-client relationship"
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Nov 24, 2016 22:01
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FactsAreUseless posted:The only way society will survive is if we rethink the work=eat equation, and I don't know how to do that. There is always a Butlerian Jihad.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:01
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size1one posted:It's probably not possible before we reach post-scarcity. We probably won't see it in our lifetimes but within the next century is possible. Cheap clean renewable energy freeing us from the scarcity of fossil fuels is the first step. We could make significant progress towards that over the next few decades. 
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Nov 24, 2016 22:02
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Paradoxish posted:Yeah, automation discussions are always weird because people immediately think that you're talking about robots taking all the jobs. Unemployment peaked at around 10% in the US following the last recession. It peaked at 25% during the Great Depression, and our economy is drastically more consumer driven now than it was in the 1930s. 10-15% unemployment extended out over a decade with no future job prospects would be catastrophic on an unimaginable level. It's the same thing mentioned before - "entry/temp position, BA and 5+ years of experience required". FactsAreUseless posted:Doesn't solve poo poo. Just moves some money around.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:03
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EwokEntourage posted:I doubt Automation in the legal field isn't going to be that big of a concern. Most law is done at small firms and they don't usually have the capital to invest in cutting edge neural network research networks. "Why would I hire the small firm instead of using Amazon Law? It's backed by at least one white shoe firm I can't afford!"
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Nov 24, 2016 22:04
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EwokEntourage posted:
There's been literal outsourcing of grunt doc review work to India. That's the bread and butter work if you're not able to get your own practice going. That's on top of the huge bubble that happened in the legal field. Trabisnikof posted:"Why would I hire the small firm instead of using Amazon Law? It's backed by at least one white shoe firm I can't afford!" Don't forget LegalZoom and the like. Contract work's another field that's going away. Of course those form-letter contracts are POS that don't really hold up well. citybeatnik fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Nov 24, 2016 |
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Nov 24, 2016 22:06
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This just makes me sad. Edit: automation isn't an entire job going away. It's one piece of work going, then another, and after a while you can consolidate two jobs into one. Do that a bunch of times and you have job loss to technology.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:15
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citybeatnik posted:There's been literal outsourcing of grunt doc review work to India. That's the bread and butter work if you're not able to get your own practice going. Yea but transaction work has been copy and paste for a long time. Hiring a lawyer lets you sue that lawyer if something goes wrong. Same with diy contracts and form divorces, etc. good chance a person majorly fucks it up, especially divorces. People always point to legalzoom or hypothetical amazon legal or whatever, but there is always the possibility the ABA nixes those, and then the states just follow along, like what happened with those non lawyer owned firms (whatever the name is) after Enron and that other big firm cratered The really problem in law is too many law schools and too many lawyers.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:17
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EwokEntourage posted:
We're in agreement there at least.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:20
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^ Is TNG going to come true? Will we eventually kill all the lawyers?FactsAreUseless posted:Finally, I can be a literal pencil-dick. That's the answer to China's carbon sequestration problem, actually 
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Nov 24, 2016 22:21
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Rabble posted:This just makes me sad. The optimism or pessimism of popular culture is a pretty fascinating subject, particularly in science fiction. We've been living through a period of pessimism in genre fiction, and I'd expect that to get worse as the right wing nationalism wave of the 2010s continues. Though right wing nationalist media is likely to depict an optimistic future, I wouldn't expect it to achieve much play outside its own circles. There's been some comeback of the grungy future in recent years, depicting the "iPhone future" of the mid to late 2000s as something for a stratified upper class while the masses of humanity make do with fifth-hand holophones and not enough clean air (think Elysium and the Expanse). I'd count on this to continue, given that there's no way in hell Trump and the Republicans somehow ease concerns about income inequality.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:21
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FactsAreUseless posted:Yes, but there's going to have to be some stopgap measures as growing population and automation make wide employment impossible. Agreed. I don't know what those are though. I think it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Right. If we weren't so afraid of fission power we would be significantly closer to that future.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:24
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Yeah, the only thing legal automation has done for our business is allow us to file more briefs with less work because of simple database programs. I actually remember like 10 to 15 years ago where you'd be luck if you had a rate of 1000 briefs per person a year. Last year I think I did 4000. That's not full legal circuit briefs btw.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:25
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size1one posted:Agreed. I don't know what those are though. I think it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. I'm sorry but fear isn't the reason "too cheap to meter" was a lie. There will be no post-scarcity future, our future scarcities might be just very different than we imagine.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:28
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Rabble posted:Edit: automation isn't an entire job going away. It's one piece of work going, then another, and after a while you can consolidate two jobs into one. Do that a bunch of times and you have job loss to technology. Yeah, and it tends to happen a lot more suddenly than people expect thanks to recessions. The pattern is incredibly obvious in manufacturing, where output bounces back and improves between recessions while employment holds ground at best. edit- automation.png 
Paradoxish fucked around with this message at 22:33 on Nov 24, 2016 |
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Nov 24, 2016 22:28
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Hollismason posted:Yeah, the only thing legal automation has done for our business is allow us to file more briefs with less work because of simple database programs. I actually remember like 10 to 15 years ago where you'd be luck if you had a rate of 1000 briefs per person a year. That's three lost jobs to automation. If it took 4 people to do 4000 and now it only takes one. It's happening, you just don't see it because it hasn't affected you yet.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:32
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Good Citizen posted:Your biggest risk is a major simplification of the tax code, not automation. Just like my biggest risk is a dismantling of the PCAOB and other accounting regulatory agencies, not automation. That and carried interest being tasked at the ordinary rate.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:35
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Rabble posted:That's three lost jobs to automation. If it took 4 people to do 4000 and now it only takes one. It's happening, you just don't see it because it hasn't affected you yet. Not really our company has actually grown. I understand your pov though.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:39
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 itshappening.gif
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Nov 24, 2016 22:41
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Paradoxish posted:Yeah, and it tends to happen a lot more suddenly than people expect thanks to recessions. The pattern is incredibly obvious in manufacturing, where output bounces back and improves between recessions while employment holds ground at best. Wonder when the next recession will hit and wonder what sector will cause it... I'm putting money on dust bowl like event due to drought.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:42
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size1one posted:
Once again proving the value of a lie you can understand even if you can't believe it.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:44
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Mustached Demon posted:Wonder when the next recession will hit and wonder what sector will cause it... tech bubble 2.0 should be popping soon thank god it will land in trump's lap. at the same time, dear god it's gonna land in trump's lap
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Nov 24, 2016 22:45
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Mustached Demon posted:Wonder when the next recession will hit and wonder what sector will cause it... Gonna have to go with tariff war.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:45
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Condiv posted:tech bubble 2.0 should be popping soon Maybe I'll be able to buy a house in austin after all the Californians clear out.
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Nov 24, 2016 22:47
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