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Lol, I'm bearish on the economy but anyone thinking that a Trump administration immediately leads to a recession is probably thinking emotionally about the election (and can feel free to short the market). From a policy standpoint, the dismantling of regulations across industries will likely lead to a short term to mid term fillip to growth. I think it'll lead to long term poo poo but who knows when it'll blow up.
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Dec 2, 2016 07:26
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shrike82 posted:Lol, I'm bearish on the economy but anyone thinking that a Trump administration immediately leads to a recession is probably thinking emotionally about the election (and can feel free to short the market). I don't think it'll crash the S&P500 anytime soon but I'm very worried about the international bond markets. So many economies are completely drowning in housing bubbles and all it'd take to burst it at this point is someone shouting fire loud enough to crash the entire thing. Like look at household debt in Canada, Australia, Sweden, UK, Ireland, etc. It's terrifying.
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Dec 2, 2016 07:29
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Which the US/Trump administration is paradoxically likely to handle better than the rest of the West. Europe is drowning in austerity, Trump with control of all arms of the government will be better positioned to fire on all stimulus cylinders if necessary whereas a Clinton administration would likely have fought tooth and nail with the GOP for every dollar of stimulus.
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Dec 2, 2016 07:34
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Sorry Americans. You'll all lose your healthcare and will probably work at walmart for the rest of your lives but that's the price you have to pay for ensuring my investment portfolio yields 7%/year.
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Dec 2, 2016 07:39
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MiddleOne posted:I don't think it'll crash the S&P500 anytime soon but I'm very worried about the international bond markets. So many economies are completely drowning in housing bubbles and all it'd take to burst it at this point is someone shouting fire loud enough to crash the entire thing.
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Dec 2, 2016 07:40
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shrike82 posted:Which the US/Trump administration is paradoxically likely to handle better than the rest of the West. Europe is drowning in austerity, Trump with control of all arms of the government will be better positioned to fire on all stimulus cylinders if necessary whereas a Clinton administration would likely have fought tooth and nail with the GOP for every dollar of stimulus.
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Dec 2, 2016 07:41
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shrike82 posted:Which the US/Trump administration is paradoxically likely to handle better than the rest of the West. Europe is drowning in austerity, Trump with control of all arms of the government will be better positioned to fire on all stimulus cylinders if necessary whereas a Clinton administration would likely have fought tooth and nail with the GOP for every dollar of stimulus. Except Trump has already stated his plan to give massive tax cuts to the wealthy and to companies. And look at who he's putting in charge. People who like the idea of privatizing everything in exchange for the people getting a thousand-dollar tax credit or two. People who are clamoring to be the first to slash government spending and regulations. Trump does not have the balls to implement the sorts of plans that indicates, see the economy crash, and then raise taxes in order to increase federal spending.
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Dec 2, 2016 09:31
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Nah, again I think you guys are kneejerking as Krugman did. I agree that Trump is going to be a disaster for the economy long term but there's no reason to start crying that everything is going to blow up in the next year or two - if anything, it'll give ammunition to the right if nothing happens. Stuff like privatization and tax cuts don't depress the economy in the short term and if anything, Trump seems to be of the Huey Long persuasion. Krugman quote:But will the extent of the disaster become apparent right away? It’s natural and, one must admit, tempting to predict a quick comeuppance — and I myself gave in to that temptation, briefly, on that horrible election night, suggesting that a global recession was imminent. But I quickly retracted that call. Trumpism will have dire effects, but they will take time to become manifest.
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Dec 2, 2016 09:38
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I'm seeing signs of Market Mania all over the place. That generally means we're near or at the boom peak. And the reason it's a peak is because t sharply goes down soon afterwards. The economy is crashing within the next two years. This has nothing to do with Trump or Hillary being elected, and everything to do with historical market trends and behavior.
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Dec 2, 2016 10:25
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Kerning Chameleon posted:I'm seeing signs of Market Mania all over the place. That generally means we're near or at the boom peak. And the reason it's a peak is because t sharply goes down soon afterwards. This compounded with the lack of recovery from 2008 spells trouble. Apparently people joked to Hillary that it's good she didn't get elected as this downturn would be on her and potentially catastrophic.
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Dec 2, 2016 14:51
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An economic crisis will give Trump the excuse to just eliminate the income tax, medicare, medicaid, social security, and the VA
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Dec 2, 2016 15:06
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Vermain posted:I've probably said it before, but if we pass through 2017 recession free, I'll eat my hat. The OPEC announcement raised people's hopes a little, but I doubt we're going to see even a fraction of the business investment needed returning for $50 oil. Ultimately, I suspect a lot of the outlook going forwards is going to depend on U.S. economic policy: Trump might be able to win a few token victories at home, keeping a few thousand jobs from fleeing overseas, but asking companies en masse to not lower their expenses via job exporting at a time when profits are already gloomy is really sawing the branch you sit on. Keep in mind the general predictions were that we'd have a recession in 2016-2017 all along, and that even when Clinton was expected to win. It's amusing that when one party or the other overspends we hear screams of "deficit spending!" and when one party or the other cuts we hear screams of "austerity!".
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Dec 2, 2016 15:14
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Rated PG-34 posted:This compounded with the lack of recovery from 2008 spells trouble. Apparently people joked to Hillary that it's good she didn't get elected as this downturn would be on her and potentially catastrophic. Indeed. Official unemployment for November was announced today to be 4.6%, but factor in underemployment and those who've stopped for work and the rate is 9.3%.
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Dec 2, 2016 19:37
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OhFunny posted:Indeed. Official unemployment for November was announced today to be 4.6%, but factor in underemployment and those who've stopped for work and the rate is 9.3%. Funny how the left and right have suddenly swapped spaces, the left now pointing out U6 after defending charges of high unemployment despite low U3 and Republicans (Drudge) suddenly proudly trumpeting U3 when they used to hound Obama over U6.
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Dec 2, 2016 22:03
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shrike82 posted:Nah, again I think you guys are kneejerking as Krugman did. I agree that Trump is going to be a disaster for the economy long term but there's no reason to start crying that everything is going to blow up in the next year or two - if anything, it'll give ammunition to the right if nothing happens. Stuff like privatization and tax cuts don't depress the economy in the short term and if anything, Trump seems to be of the Huey Long persuasion. So basically in 8 years, we'll have a recession that a democratic administration will likely be cleaning up Is it me or does it feel like the country is circling the drain at this point?
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Dec 2, 2016 22:31
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Funny how the left and right have suddenly swapped spaces, the left now pointing out U6 after defending charges of high unemployment despite low U3 and Republicans (Drudge) suddenly proudly trumpeting U3 when they used to hound Obama over U6. I'm pretty sure The Actual Left has been criticizing the administration's unemployment figures from this perspective for years, particularly incorporating the quality of the "jobs" that count for reducing U3. But you're right in that the Democratic party and liberal media outlets have done an about-face on this.
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Dec 2, 2016 22:31
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My Linux Rig posted:So basically in 8 years, we'll have a recession that a democratic administration will likely be cleaning up
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Dec 2, 2016 22:35
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Ol Standard Retard posted:But you're right in that the Democratic party and liberal media outlets have done an about-face on this. Part of the problem is that the kind of middling, trudging along state of the economy makes it really easy to just project your political beliefs onto whatever data you happen to be looking at. Today's jobs report is great if you wanted to talk about the unemployment rate, but less great if you want to talk about wage growth or the labor participation rate. We've had very, very few periods of unequivocally good or bad news, so everyone just sees what they want to see in the data. A lot of Democrats are going to be very unhappy with the economy six months from now, even though it's pretty unlikely that Trump's administration will have done much of anything by then. Meanwhile, if and when things get bad, expect Republicans to start trotting out the "common wisdom" that recessions are caused by the actions of the previous administration.
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Dec 2, 2016 23:41
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It really depends how much blood the body of the middle class has left for Wall Street to suck out of it.
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Dec 3, 2016 02:39
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override367 posted:An economic crisis will give Trump the excuse to just eliminate the income tax, medicare, medicaid, social security, and the VA He is going to do this regardless
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Dec 3, 2016 02:48
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Grouchio posted:How long would it take a country like Canada to recover from a housing bubble pop? Decades, oil and building houses for the chinese are the only two things keeping us from being the mirror of Russia across the board instead of just our rural hinterland.
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Dec 3, 2016 03:05
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My Linux Rig posted:So basically in 8 years, we'll have a recession that a democratic administration will likely be cleaning up As far as I can tell, the trajectory started here: quote:On August 23, 1971, prior to accepting Nixon's nomination to the Supreme Court, Powell was commissioned by his neighbor, Eugene B. Sydnor Jr., a close friend and education director of the US Chamber of Commerce, to write a confidential memorandum titled "Attack on the American Free Enterprise System," an anti-Communist, anti-New Deal blueprint for conservative business interests to retake America for the chamber. [...] Turns out when you're rich as balls and have some like minded friends, you can buy enormous social and political change. (Capitalists of the world unite!)
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Dec 3, 2016 04:09
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My main concern is that you have the Fed raising rates because the economy is currently showing positive signs, but it's becoming clear that another bubble is building. Plus the incoming policies of the Trump Administration are going to yank a lot of money out of the bottom of the economy and put it at the top, between likely healthcare/Medicaid cuts, public school vouchers increasing, etc. Remember when the Bush WH wanted to privatize Social Security? Can you imagine how much worse things would have been had the SS trust fund been destroyed by the '08 crash? Seniors would be dying by the boatload.
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Dec 3, 2016 04:51
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Raising rates if "another bubble is building" isn't a bad thing.
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Dec 3, 2016 04:56
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shrike82 posted:Raising rates if "another bubble is building" isn't a bad thing.
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Dec 3, 2016 07:44
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Maybe not, but you still have to do it. Just a reminder: Current monetary policy is not in any way normal. If we still need pedal to the metal expansionary monetary policy eight years into a recovery then something is really wrong.
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Dec 3, 2016 08:12
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Paradoxish posted:Maybe not, but you still have to do it. Just a reminder: Also 8 years of pedal to the metal expansionary monetary policy with no inflation anywhere makes no goddamn sense.
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Dec 3, 2016 16:42
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You can't really call central banks support-buying bonds "expansionary", it's a mockery of the concept.
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Dec 3, 2016 16:44
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Orange Devil posted:Also 8 years of pedal to the metal expansionary monetary policy with no inflation anywhere makes no goddamn sense. It kinda does if you can set aside supply side and trickle down bullshit. Demand side isn't seeing a single loving nickel of what would in normal markets be inflation so if you raise your prices nobody can afford it and you're the only one in the market going up in price. Now when people are flirting with the idea of negative rates because we've been at almost zero for going on a decade the extra is going somewhere right? Funny how the stocks are going loving gangbusters, setting new records almost daily, CEOs are making more than ever by crazy poo poo like double digit multiples and if the Cayman Islands wasn't a black box I bet there'd be a story to tell there.
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Dec 3, 2016 17:36
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Italy referendum: Matteo Renzi to resign after defeat as Austria rejects far right https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...py_to_clipboard Welp. Rip 2017
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Dec 5, 2016 00:43
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namaste faggots posted:Italy referendum: Matteo Renzi to resign after defeat as Austria rejects far right How long do Italian banks have left before they go under?
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Dec 5, 2016 01:02
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Lawman 0 posted:How long do Italian banks have left before they go under?  Roughly monday afternoon I guess. oh how quaint namaste friends fucked around with this message at 01:18 on Dec 5, 2016 |
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Dec 5, 2016 01:16
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Orange Devil posted:Also 8 years of pedal to the metal expansionary monetary policy with no inflation anywhere makes no goddamn sense. 
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Dec 5, 2016 06:27
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namaste faggots posted:
Their third largest bank is struggling to raise 5bn euros? jfc
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Dec 5, 2016 11:33
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override367 posted:An economic crisis will give Trump the excuse to just eliminate the income tax, medicare, medicaid, social security, and the VA Trump and the Republicans will also not need any excuse beyond "we won" to do whatever the gently caress they want.
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Dec 5, 2016 12:42
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cheese posted:Its almost like flawed supply side economics can't explain the post 2008 economy If you create a new billion dollars and give it all to Bill Gates, did you really create a billion dollars?
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Dec 5, 2016 13:18
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Raldikuk posted:Their third largest bank is struggling to raise 5bn euros? jfc I'm not real super familiar on the Italian situation: Is the bank just extremely over-leveraged or is there some sort of cash flow problem for the country?
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Dec 5, 2016 14:29
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DeathSandwich posted:I'm not real super familiar on the Italian situation: Is the bank just extremely over-leveraged or is there some sort of cash flow problem for the country? Almost all of the major European banks are hilariously over leveraged and are doing their best to sweep it under the rug and hope the public doesn't notice
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Dec 5, 2016 14:48
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shrike82 posted:Which the US/Trump administration is paradoxically likely to handle better than the rest of the West. Europe is drowning in austerity, Trump with control of all arms of the government will be better positioned to fire on all stimulus cylinders if necessary whereas a Clinton administration would likely have fought tooth and nail with the GOP for every dollar of stimulus. What makes you think Trump won't implement their own special 'No Taxes for the Rich" austerity.
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Dec 5, 2016 14:50
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shrike82 posted:Which the US/Trump administration is paradoxically likely to handle better than the rest of the West. Europe is drowning in austerity, Trump with control of all arms of the government will be better positioned to fire on all stimulus cylinders if necessary whereas a Clinton administration would likely have fought tooth and nail with the GOP for every dollar of stimulus. Yeah, about that... You know how when Brownback took over the state of Kansas he turned a not-necessarily-good-but-stable economy into a burning shithole? He did that all basically on the altar of austerity. He enacted massive tax cuts that benefited the ultra rich and companies that could reallign as a group of LLCs (think Lawyer's offices where each laywer became their own company to themselves) and since then has basically turned "What can we cut funding from this year" into a game so heinous that the state's supreme court had to step in on multiple occasions to deem his school budget cuts illegal. Now picture that on a federal level because it's basically the same ideology in charge on the national level now. America will be drowning in austerity soon enough.
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Dec 5, 2016 15:06
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