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Chomskyan posted:That's nice, but few minutes of research shows that the Rand corporation believes China has a chance of taking Taiwan (though they describe it as a "roll of the dice"). So I'll take their expertise over Random Guy On Internet With Opinion On China's Military. The Germans had a better chance of pulling off Sealion
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Dec 6, 2016 23:51
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China can blow up Taiwan's airfields and block their ports. If the US isn't willing to commit then all China has to do is enforce a blockade.
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Dec 6, 2016 23:59
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Jeoh posted:The Germans had a better chance of pulling off Sealion I agree. The Germans had a cohesive military that had successfully conquered Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium and France at that point. Years of build-up, successful execution and learnings. But Operation Sealion also relied on air superiority and defeating the defending airforce, which they couldn't manage.
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Dec 7, 2016 00:04
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Even if the Chinese can take Taiwan by force they would gain Taiwan and lose everything else. Their economy would freefall, they'd be diplomatically isolated, there would probably be riots once the consequences of such came about, etc. The Chinese have done an excellent job convincing everyone that they really totally 100% care about Taiwan and that it's a "core interest" but it actually isn't and they don't. At least not enough to give up literally everything in pursuit of maybe gaining possession of a single island.
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Dec 7, 2016 00:06
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A Trump presidency is just as likely to fuel China's attempts to retake Taiwan, as it is to benefit Taiwan itself. The biggest stumbling block for China going to work on reclaiming what they see as a rogue province is the threat of US intervention. Trump offers them a way to remove that. Sure, Trump is saying one thing now, but that's his usual Twitter unfiltered foot in mouth stuff. Once he's actually in office, and starts meeting with China, there will be lots of time for them to get him around to their way of thinking. If Trump is just concerned with his hotel building projects in Taiwan etc, then they can offer him all sorts of access to the entire China region in return for looking away. Maybe make it a carrot and stick approach, also leveraging his extensive debts to Bank of China and probably any others they could buy up from around the world. Yeah, the US has that agreement signed into law to protect Taiwan, but good luck making that stick under Trump. He'd start some spin about how it's not our business, won't risk American lives (and will be praised for being patriotic), how China is making China great again etc. All things considered, I'm not surprised that Taiwan got in first trying to get Trump on their side, because it would be so, so easy for him to be used against them. China's isolation for taking Taiwan would only come about if the international community is up in arms about it, and if a Trump-led America sides with China, which he could do if it benefits Trump (because gently caress America, Trump only looks out for Trump), then it won't be a thing. Parkingtigers fucked around with this message at 02:02 on Dec 7, 2016 |
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Dec 7, 2016 02:00
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They should just do it now. The longer they wait, the more China builds up its military. They really should have done it 15 years ago but back then there was still the possibility the PRC would respect their autonomy, they were treating Hong Kong decently and the PRC was still opening and liberalizing. It'll be rough but I also suspect that if push comes to shove right now I don't think China is going to attack anyone they aren't guaranteed to win against. The PLA being defeated would be a huge domestic problem, especially by tiny little rogue province Taiwan.
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Dec 7, 2016 02:33
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Grand Fromage posted:They should just do it now. The longer they wait, the more China builds up its military. They really should have done it 15 years ago but back then there was still the possibility the PRC would respect their autonomy, they were treating Hong Kong decently and the PRC was still opening and liberalizing. It'll be rough but I also suspect that if push comes to shove right now I don't think China is going to attack anyone they aren't guaranteed to win against. The PLA being defeated would be a huge domestic problem, especially by tiny little rogue province Taiwan. Just because Taiwan declares independence doesn't mean China will recognize it. At the end of the day, Taiwan is off the Chinese shore. Nothing is stopping China from invading Taiwan 20 years from now when it does have the military force needed for a decisive victory. The only plausible way forward for Taiwan is progressive de-escalation with China, culminating in China renouncing its "right" to use military force in retaking Taiwan. This is the strategy put forward in "Meeting China Halfway", by the way.
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Dec 7, 2016 02:47
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Chomskyan posted:The only plausible way forward for Taiwan. there are lots of plausible ways forward
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Dec 7, 2016 02:50
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Chomskyan posted:The only plausible way forward for Taiwan is progressive de-escalation with China, culminating in China renouncing its "right" to use military force in retaking Taiwan. This is the strategy put forward in "Meeting China Halfway", by the way. Did you read the book? How is it?
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Dec 7, 2016 02:50
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Chomskyan posted:The only plausible way forward for Taiwan is progressive de-escalation with China, culminating in China renouncing its "right" to use military force in retaking Taiwan. This is the strategy put forward in "Meeting China Halfway", by the way. Yeah meeting China halfway has worked great so far.
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Dec 7, 2016 02:51
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IMO the problem with Taiwan isn't Taiwan, it's Tibet and Xinjiang (and HK now I guess). If Taiwan were the only thing the CCP could find a way to grant them independence and rid themselves of the whole issue, but doing that would fuel the other separatist movements. Tibet's water supplies are too important for the PRC to do anything that would remotely encourage problems there.
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Dec 7, 2016 02:57
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Grand Fromage posted:Did you read the book? How is it?
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Dec 7, 2016 02:59
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Chomskyan posted:Just because Taiwan declares independence doesn't mean China will recognize it. At the end of the day, Taiwan is off the Chinese shore. Nothing is stopping China from invading Taiwan 20 years from now when it does have the military force needed for a decisive victory. Just because China renounces its "right" to use military force in retaking Taiwan, doesn't mean China will honour any agreement made with a renegade province. Nothing is stopping China from invading Taiwan 20 years from now when it does have the military force needed for a decisive victory. The only plausible way forward for Taiwan is progressive escalation with China, culminating in an unsuccessful military action, US involvement, diplomatic recognition and then recognition of Taiwan's independence more generally by other countries. (not happening)
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Dec 7, 2016 03:16
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Provoking a war with China: Taiwans path forward according to Something Awful's batshit China thread
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Dec 7, 2016 03:23
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Chomskyan posted:Provoking a war with China: Taiwans path forward according to Something Awful's batshit China thread "It's Taiwan's responsibility as a smaller and weaker country to allow itself to be absorbed into the imperialist autocracy next door" - Poster with Noam Chomsky references in his name and avatar
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Dec 7, 2016 03:25
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Taiwan for 56 US state.
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Dec 7, 2016 03:26
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Taiwan isn't being absorbed by China in the same manner as Hong Kong, it's a democracy. If they wanna reunite that's their own prerogative, and if they don't then the US will back them up. I wanna see an independent Taiwan as much as the next person but the situation right now is not remotely worth going to war over.
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Dec 7, 2016 03:27
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I don't see the path - how does China forcibly integrate Taiwan even with a stronger military.
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Dec 7, 2016 03:32
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shrike82 posted:I don't see the path - how does China forcibly integrate Taiwan even with a stronger military. The physical conquest of Taiwan and the forcible pacification of its civilian population. It's Taiwan's inevitable destiny you see
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Dec 7, 2016 03:33
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Chomskyan posted:Provoking a war with China: Taiwans path forward according to Something Awful's batshit China thread When I wrote "(not happening)", I meant it was self-evidently a ridiculous idea, and nobody would take it seriously, or sanely describe it as being "the only plausible way forward".
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Dec 7, 2016 03:39
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I would blow Dane Cook posted:Are China's nukes any good? China's beating us in nukes. You'd better believe they're beating us. They're making us look like fools! You have these people in power - these idiots, they don't know nukes! Listen, I know nukes. The American people were very smart to pick me for the D&D China thread, because I'm going to get us winning again on nukes. So many nukes, so many wonderful nukes, you won't believe it. I'll give you so many nukes you'll be sick of 'em.
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Dec 7, 2016 04:33
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Taiwan are shrewd businesspeople. They managed to buy the first phone call from an American leader in 30 years for only $140,000. A bargain!quote:Former Senator Bob Dole, acting as a foreign agent for the government of Taiwan, worked behind the scenes over the past six months to establish high-level contact between Taiwanese officials and President-elect Donald J. Trump’s staff, an outreach effort that culminated last week in an unorthodox telephone call between Mr. Trump and Taiwan’s president. the black husserl fucked around with this message at 05:10 on Dec 7, 2016 |
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Dec 7, 2016 05:02
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the black husserl posted:Taiwain are shrewd businesspeople. They managed to buy the first phone call from an American leader in 30 years for only $140,000. A bargain! That would normally buy you 35 minutes of a paid professional seminar so good on them.
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Dec 7, 2016 05:10
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Given the departure from established practice that the phone call represents, they got an amazing price. I guess everything is on sale.
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Dec 7, 2016 05:16
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Taiwan paid someone a pittance to act as a diplomat for them? Scandalous
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Dec 7, 2016 05:34
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Fojar38 posted:Taiwan paid someone a pittance to act as a diplomat for them? Scandalous There is a joke in here about cheap labor undercutting American jobs...
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Dec 7, 2016 05:39
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It's not scandalous for Taiwan, but it is hypocritical of Trump who has previously criticized this exact kind of lobbying. Then again, he's such an idiot he's probably not even aware what happened.
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Dec 7, 2016 05:49
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Actually even in the New Trump Era of Rapidly Shifting Standards, Taiwan purchasing a massive shift in US foreign policy for the low low price of 140k is rather "scandalous". Kind of the definition of a scandal, actually.
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Dec 7, 2016 05:54
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That's not a half-bucket of potatoes compared with the poo poo that normally goes down.
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Dec 7, 2016 06:02
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Bloodnose posted:Our glorious Trumpy future 2077 to our first sperg president? seems like a long time.
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Dec 7, 2016 06:03
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the black husserl posted:Taiwan are shrewd businesspeople. They managed to buy the first phone call from an American leader in 30 years for only $140,000. A bargain! That's like half a Hilary speech, bargain!
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Dec 7, 2016 06:20
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The ROC and the PRC have a proud history of literally buying recognition from smaller countries so it's not that odd. The only reason why Taiwan is recognized by any of the countries that do is that they paid them more than China and China hasn't cared enough to win over full recognition from the Dominican Republic or Swaziland.
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Dec 7, 2016 06:24
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the black husserl posted:Actually even in the New Trump Era of Rapidly Shifting Standards, Taiwan purchasing a massive shift in US foreign policy for the low low price of 140k is rather "scandalous". They didn't though. They hired a guy to say nice things about them in Washington. Calling it "purchasing a massive shift in US foreign policy" is disingenuous as gently caress
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Dec 7, 2016 06:26
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https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/806378365636714497
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Dec 7, 2016 07:07
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This has to be another fake like that North Korean account
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Dec 7, 2016 07:12
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lol the real PRC media is so bad it looks fake. If you read it long enough nothing they do will ever surprise you.
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Dec 7, 2016 07:13
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Taiwan is getting pretty active diplomatically. China throws a poo poo fit when told any don't care. https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/12/07/china-urges-washington-bar-taiwan-pres-tsai-ing-wen-passing-us/ quote:Defence & Foreign Policy Politics & Protest SinoBeat Fojar38 posted:They didn't though. They hired a guy to say nice things about them in Washington. Calling it "purchasing a massive shift in US foreign policy" is disingenuous as gently caress Everybody trades with them all the same so official recognition is really just a title bump when it comes to trade. Where do you think those Gigabyte/Asus Motherboards come from? Where is the "Don't give a gently caress anymore outside of the History channel"?
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Dec 7, 2016 07:17
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quote:“erroneous signal to ‘Taiwanese independence’ forces” Does anyone proof read this poo poo?
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Dec 7, 2016 07:27
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sincx fucked around with this message at 05:43 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Dec 7, 2016 08:31
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Wargame: Red Dragon is somewhat close. The main campaign is about a 2nd North Korean war. The first couple waves are T-34/85 which get torn apart by modern auto cannons let alone Korean tanks that are almost equal to Abrams of the time. It has a Hong Kong scenario where Thatcher basically told China to get bent and you're tasked with it's defence until overwhelming reinforcements arrive. You fight absolutely large numbers of early soviet equipment and their Chinese knockoffs with a low number of high tech for the time equipment and well trained infantry. I think the Canadians arrive first then some more British warships with the carrier Invincible(?). The Americans last with a CBG on the last day. There is also an invasion of Japan where you play the invader. Not sure how the logistics of that works out but gets hand waved away pretty hard.
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Dec 7, 2016 09:01
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