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Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Sataere posted:

Your full time job is giving the rest of us fantasy football advice and pithy remarks. You will not be compensated.

Does anyone in this thread have a degree in math or statistics?

I'm actually just a bot that is programmed to respond from a list of canned answers when Christine Michael or Jared Cook are mentioned.

Spoeank fucked around with this message at 21:44 on Dec 7, 2016

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Silly Burrito
Nov 27, 2007

SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

Spoeank posted:

I'm actually just a bot that is programmed to respond from a list of canned answers when Christine Michael or Jared Cook are mentioned.

How is your Percy Harvin subroutine?

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Silly Burrito posted:

How is your Percy Harvin subroutine?

If they just get an OC who can focus on getting the ball in his hands, since he's their best playmaker, then maybe, just maybe, he will stop being injured all the time and not have migraines and not be useless

decypher
Aug 23, 2003

Who else see da leprechaun say yaaaa!
I like the Bengals defense this week against the Browns.

This bold prediction brought to you by decypher.

Gobias Ind.
Apr 5, 2007

If your girlfriend says hey to me that's our girlfriend now idc

decypher posted:

I like the Bengals defense this week against the Browns.

This bold prediction brought to you by decypher.

I stashed them last week (holding Seattle for the Rams next week), so I fully expect RG3 to go off.

Ben Nevis
Jan 20, 2011
I'm apparently rolling out the Raiders again this week. God help me.

Silly Burrito
Nov 27, 2007

SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

Spoeank posted:

he will stop being injured all the time and not have migraines and not be useless

Beep boop does not compute

Santheb
Jul 13, 2005

Great, team in the losers bracket decided to roster dump. Howard, Blount, Miller, Cards DST, welcome to the waiver wire.

Commisioner better fix this poo poo.

Edit: also for week 15 I managed to snatch up the Bills against the Browns. Week 16, if I'm there, San Diego @ Cleveland.

Not too bad right?

Santheb fucked around with this message at 22:57 on Dec 7, 2016

decypher
Aug 23, 2003

Who else see da leprechaun say yaaaa!

Santheb posted:

Great, team in the losers bracket decided to roster dump. Howard, Blount, Miller, Cards DST, welcome to the waiver wire.


Any commissioner worth a drat would reverse those moves and possibly not invite that guy back into the league next year. Not without a talking to anyway. This is why non-playoff rosters get locked.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



So in my big money dynasty league, I just got offered Tyler Boyd ($20) for Eric Ebron ($4)

I am not sure how I feel about this. If Eifert gets hurt, I would be hosed at TE for the playoffs. The contract is solid and it makes my receiving corp

ARob
JMatthews
Diggs
D. Parker
Watkins
Boyd

And only uses a quarter of my cap. The question is do I think Boyd is better than the receivers coming out this year. Thoughts?

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Silly Burrito posted:

Beep boop does not compute

Percy Harvin unretired, ran 3 routes, then re-retired during this post

BonoMan
Feb 20, 2002

Jade Ear Joe
Man looking at waiver wire transactions this year. I have 55 with the nearest person having 28. Christ!

I managed to bring my lovely draft team to second in PF. Meanwhile the number 1 ranked team (in record and points for) is a fantasy newcomer, who is actually really good at all of his initial research, and has only 9 overall transactions.

I guess the takeaway is nothing matters.

MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.
Welp I managed the #2 seed in my main league despite being the unfortunate drafter of Keenan Allen (WR2) and Eddie Lacy (my RB1). Made the playoffs in 2/3 leagues this year and the one league I missed was due to a tiebreaker where my record was 7-6. Overall pretty happy with my performance this year.

Santheb
Jul 13, 2005

BonoMan posted:

Man looking at waiver wire transactions this year. I have 55 with the nearest person having 28. Christ!

I managed to bring my lovely draft team to second in PF. Meanwhile the number 1 ranked team (in record and points for) is a fantasy newcomer, who is actually really good at all of his initial research, and has only 9 overall transactions.

I guess the takeaway is nothing matters.

Guy in the league where I didnt make the playoffs has made, so far, 101 total transactions and two trades.

Teemu Pokemon
Jun 19, 2004

To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause
If you're not constantly churning the bottom 1/5 of your roster, you're loving up

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

The overall top seed of the I Paid What for Who dynasty league spent 11 FAAB dollars all year. And we don't have free agency: he picked up ten players total all year, nine of them for one dollar each, and one guy for two bucks.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 01:19 on Dec 8, 2016

Drunk Nerds
Jan 25, 2011

Just close your eyes
Fun Shoe
I just realized that there is a losers bracket in my SA craft beer league. The winner gets a box of beer. So, it is easily conceivable that I could win this bracket, but lose in the real playoffs (had I made it). That would mean that Dwayne Allen's alien-esque game would actually benefit me in terms of prizes

I'm glad I stayed calm about the situation, instead of having some sort of ridiculous meltdown or something. Let this be a lesson to you all, but especially to me.v

Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 03:08 on Dec 8, 2016

Boosh!
Apr 12, 2002
Oven Wrangler
Any other psychos rolling with Alex Smith tonight?

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Sataere posted:

So in my big money dynasty league, I just got offered Tyler Boyd ($20) for Eric Ebron ($4)

I am not sure how I feel about this. If Eifert gets hurt, I would be hosed at TE for the playoffs. The contract is solid and it makes my receiving corp

ARob
JMatthews
Diggs
D. Parker
Watkins
Boyd

And only uses a quarter of my cap. The question is do I think Boyd is better than the receivers coming out this year. Thoughts?

Where my dynasty goons at?

MacheteZombie
Feb 4, 2007
Probation
Can't post for 3 hours!

Sataere posted:

Where my dynasty goons at?

I'd probably pass, but I prefer holding 2 TEs just in case something happens to one

Gobias Ind.
Apr 5, 2007

If your girlfriend says hey to me that's our girlfriend now idc
I currently have Tyreek Hill slotted in to play as a boom/bust play this week, but Taylor Gabriel is available and playing the Rams and I"m wondering if he's a better bet for a big day? Maclin is back, Julio is questionable (although likely to play), and it just came out that Sanu isn't expected to play. Could mean a few extra targets for Gabriel. This is PPR.

Hill surprisingly only played 50% of the snaps last week and now Maclin is back. I'm worried and questioning everything.

DC Murderverse
Nov 10, 2016

"Tell that to Zod's snapped neck!"

decypher posted:

I like the Bengals defense this week against the Browns.

This bold prediction brought to you by decypher.

The Bengals are going to lose this week.

Benne
Sep 2, 2011

STOP DOING HEROIN

Boosh! posted:

Any other psychos rolling with Alex Smith tonight?

Thursday night game in sub-freezing weather? No thank you.

Boosh!
Apr 12, 2002
Oven Wrangler

Benne posted:

Thursday night game in sub-freezing weather? No thank you.

Meh, no real choice. Only other option is Mariota vs Denver in the possible rain.

MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.
I have Carr starting tonight. Should I pick up Cousins or Rivers to play instead or is this a DSYS situation?

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

^^^^^
Edit:

If I had access to Cousins, I'd start him over Carr. Rivers possibly, but it'd be close.

Was debating getting cute and trying to stream QB this week over Carr on a Thursday in the arctic, but I'm sticking with the guy who brought me this far.

Carr has been incredible in close games, and KC should be a huge test for the Raiders this week. King of 4th quarter comebacks, and wouldn't mind another overtime game.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Boosh! posted:

Meh, no real choice. Only other option is Mariota vs Denver in the possible rain.

I'd do Mariota instead, I think. Smith is not good, Thursday is not good, weather is not good. Good QBs can still get passable games against Denver, which is maybe more than I'd bet Smith will get.

Wang
Apr 10, 2003

dance dance ferret revolution

RVProfootballer posted:

I'd do Mariota instead, I think. Smith is not good, Thursday is not good, weather is not good. Good QBs can still get passable games against Denver, which is maybe more than I'd bet Smith will get.

Also to add to this Mariota has got legs and can dump off passes to Murray who has legs as well, even if it is raining they can get you points.

the_american_dream
Apr 12, 2008

GAHDAMN
3 for 3 playoffs. Have to go against Julio in 2 :/

Need him out

Waroduce
Aug 5, 2008
Wrong thread

poly and open-minded
Nov 22, 2006

In BOD we trust

During Rawls' extended injury time, I dropped him like an idiot. Now I get to face him in the playoffs! Yayyyy!

MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.
I was thinking about fantasy football stats and was wondering if this has been done. Forever_Peace gave me the idea with his Ground Control project.

I know when we talk about players, we frequently refer to a player's floor and ceiling. This is meant to evaluate the boom/bust factor of that player.

Example: Player A has a F:C of 10:12. This player has very little boom potential but is consistent enough to have very low bust potential. On the other hand, a player with a 4:30 ratio has very high boom/bust potential.

One thing that this is missing is a distribution of the probability of hitting their "floor" or "ceiling" and everything in between.

An extreme example to illustrate how this could be useful is looking at two players with high Boom/Bust potential like DeSean Jackson and Sammie Coates. Obviously DeSean Jackson is the much better fantasy player even though you could argue their floor/ceiling is fairly close. A distribution curve would be able to clearly show that Jackson has a much higher probability of getting to his ceiling.

Does anyone think this would be interesting to look at?

Veritek83
Jul 7, 2008

The Irish can't drink. What you always have to remember with the Irish is they get mean. Virtually every Irish I've known gets mean when he drinks.
I think that could be really useful. ESPN has a volatility rating they put on players, but it's just high-med-low. Being able to quantify it would definitely be interesting.

Boosh!
Apr 12, 2002
Oven Wrangler
If Alex threw a TD there I wouldve flipped!

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

MrSargent posted:

I was thinking about fantasy football stats and was wondering if this has been done. Forever_Peace gave me the idea with his Ground Control project.

I know when we talk about players, we frequently refer to a player's floor and ceiling. This is meant to evaluate the boom/bust factor of that player.

Example: Player A has a F:C of 10:12. This player has very little boom potential but is consistent enough to have very low bust potential. On the other hand, a player with a 4:30 ratio has very high boom/bust potential.

One thing that this is missing is a distribution of the probability of hitting their "floor" or "ceiling" and everything in between.

An extreme example to illustrate how this could be useful is looking at two players with high Boom/Bust potential like DeSean Jackson and Sammie Coates. Obviously DeSean Jackson is the much better fantasy player even though you could argue their floor/ceiling is fairly close. A distribution curve would be able to clearly show that Jackson has a much higher probability of getting to his ceiling.

Does anyone think this would be interesting to look at?

Hell yeah. Rotoviz does something similar with their High/Mid/Low projections.

Gorman Thomas
Jul 24, 2007
Lol if Tyreek Hill is the pick-up that propels me from last place to the semi-finals

Cat Hassler
Feb 7, 2006

Slippery Tilde

Gorman Thomas posted:

Lol if Tyreek Hill is the pick-up that propels me from last place to the semi-finals

Hello fellow Lowtax name change thread goon.

I benched Tyreek this week in favor of Crowell and it might cost me a playoff spot.

Benne
Sep 2, 2011

STOP DOING HEROIN

Keith Atherton posted:

Hello fellow Lowtax name change thread goon.

I benched Tyreek this week in favor of Crowell and it might cost me a playoff spot.

Why are you still rostering Isaiah Crowell, much less starting him with the playoffs on the line.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Benne posted:

Why are you still rostering Isaiah Crowell, much less starting him with the playoffs on the line.

careful this may be your fault now

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Cat Hassler
Feb 7, 2006

Slippery Tilde

Benne posted:

Why are you still rostering Isaiah Crowell, much less starting him with the playoffs on the line.

Super competitive league and the alternatives out there are the likes of Terrance West, Pierre Garcon, Taylor Gabriel, and Justin Forsett

I have Bilal Powell on my bench but I trust him even less than Crowell

Cincinnati has a bad run D too :shrug:

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