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Pryor on Fire posted:Everyone is too scared now to have children, we will have noone to watch awful pixar poo poo in 2 years, short DIS thesis, genius Otoh idiot Star Wars fanchildren will keep them afloat, regardless of how many movies they pump out.
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Dec 9, 2016 01:03
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I wonder if Twitter stock is going to spike even more when financial firms start buying fiber circuits and paying for 1ms faster access to Trump's tweets.
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Dec 9, 2016 01:22
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What's up with amd? Is nvda expected to go up now that they have permission to test self driving cars?
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Dec 9, 2016 01:48
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AMD got the rare double upgrade and a literal "my bad we were 100% ignoring this company" admission from BAML researchquote:We largely missed the surge in AMD stock this year as we were too concerned about its historically weak execution, high debt level, and competitive risks vs. giants INTC and NVDA," he wrote. "However, our proprietary PC gaming and AI/Deep learning industry analysis suggest AMD's growth markets are still in early stages, with AMD beginning to steadily reclaim market share Pryor on Fire fucked around with this message at 02:35 on Dec 9, 2016 |
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Dec 9, 2016 02:31
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You know, I'm pretty content with my current holdings in F, DIS, NVDA... and not-so-content in CSIQ. Wish I could turn that into AMD or VUZI, but I'm down 40% and feel like maybe I can still recover more if I hold? Plan on selling DIS on a high after the movie drops, or hold it if it bombs. The other two I'm holding for the foreseeable future.
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Dec 9, 2016 03:38
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edit: wrong thread sorry
Trash Trick fucked around with this message at 03:48 on Dec 9, 2016 |
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Dec 9, 2016 03:46
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CloFan posted:Plan on selling DIS on a high after the movie drops, or hold it if it bombs. The other two I'm holding for the foreseeable future. Look, I'm incredibly bored at the moment, as the penguins are stomping the heads of the panthers. Let's all talk DIS for a minute or two. Currently at 103.38. Things that are factored into that price.
*IP out the loving wazoo *Licensing *Parks, which are being expanded *Network television *And the one bad egg ESPN What's the valuation when, because they are taking steps to fix it, ESPN becomes a stand alone service and the subscriber base returns? How long before you see that happening? You have Iger till 2018, in that time he can groom a replacement. If not, Disney could ask him to postpone again and the man with be 67 when that happens. Not to mention a 1.51% yield and over ten years of steady payout. The only downside that I can see with them is a total market and/or network television meltdown. With a beta of 1.22 it'll move 22%, theoretically, more then whichever direction the market moves. 22% more or 22% less. My opinion, all based on very publicly available facts, is that the Mouse is a safe haven for steady safe returns for years. It's not a stock you're going to become a millionaire overnight holding, but it really should be a piece of a diverse portfolio. Your thoughts? VendaGoat fucked around with this message at 03:54 on Dec 9, 2016 |
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Dec 9, 2016 03:50
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VendaGoat posted:Let's all talk DIS for a minute or two. Never? They're losing 600,000 subs a month in a business that is shrinking and spending $7.3bn in rights fees next year alone. On top of that you have the trend towards unbundling, the new DirecTV offering being the latest, which will make them less able to capture fees from people who literally never watch it. What's the case for subs rebounding? Edit: Unless you were referring to a spin out? R.A. Dickey fucked around with this message at 04:15 on Dec 9, 2016 |
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Dec 9, 2016 04:10
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R.A. Dickey posted:What's the case for subs rebounding? Anything from bundling thru cable packages to single streaming subscription services that can be seen through an online viewer. http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160809006274/en/Walt-Disney-Company-Acquires-Minority-Stake-BAMTech Bamtech minor stake acquired with option to buy majority holding.
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Dec 9, 2016 04:13
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VendaGoat posted:Anything from bundling thru cable packages to single streaming subscription services that can be seen through an online viewer. This is me speculating but I would think the number of people paying for ESPN right now who if they didn't have to wouldn't (and soon won't) is orders of magnitude higher than people who will seek out and buy it via a hypothetical streaming service. Are we even sure their rights packages are valuable? NFL ratings this year have been garbage and on a macro level the medium to long term health of football as a sport as insanely popular as it is right now, that ESPN is paying absolute top dollar for, is very uncertain.
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Dec 9, 2016 04:22
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VendaGoat posted:Look, I'm incredibly bored at the moment, as the penguins are stomping the heads of the panthers. Who hacked VendaGoat's account and actually posted something resembling a coherent thesis about a stock?
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Dec 9, 2016 04:23
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Star Wars and Mickey Mouse aren't going away anytime soon, ESPN notwithstanding. They'll fall with the market, sure, but it is such a huge company now that there are very few downsides and many potential opportunities.
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Dec 9, 2016 04:56
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R.A. Dickey posted:This is me speculating but I would think the number of people paying for ESPN right now who if they didn't have to wouldn't (and soon won't) is orders of magnitude higher than people who will seek out and buy it via a hypothetical streaming service. Are we even sure their rights packages are valuable? NFL ratings this year have been garbage and on a macro level the medium to long term health of football as a sport as insanely popular as it is right now, that ESPN is paying absolute top dollar for, is very uncertain. And to put some back of the envelope math on here... in 2015 ESPN lost 4mm subscribers. They make $80 from each subscriber per year so that represents a loss of $320mm in revenue. To replace that revenue (and assuming there is no knock on effect from advertising revenue) a hypothetical ESPN stand alone streaming service priced around $25 a month would need around 1mm subscribers to get there. For context HBO Now has something like 900k, so it's doable but thats assuming subscriber loss remains constant. If you take the loss of 600k subscribers in October and stretch that forward into next year, you'd need to 1.9mm new streaming subscriptions to get there. Is that possible? Maybe, but it's a little bit more precarious than you're making it out to be. R.A. Dickey fucked around with this message at 05:05 on Dec 9, 2016 |
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Dec 9, 2016 05:02
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R.A. Dickey posted:And to put some back of the envelope math on here... in 2015 ESPN lost 4mm subscribers. They make $80 from each subscriber per year so that represents a loss of $320mm in revenue. To replace that revenue (and assuming there is no knock on effect from advertising revenue) a hypothetical ESPN stand alone streaming service priced around $25 a month would need around 1mm subscribers to get there. For context HBO Now has something like 900k, so it's doable but thats assuming subscriber loss remains constant. If you take those the loss of 600k subscribers in October and stretch that forward into next year, you'd need to 1.9mm new subscriptions to get there. Is that possible? Maybe, but it's a little bit more precarious than you're making it out to be. By doing a standalone service they also open up new means of streaming. According to this they've lost ten million subscribers. http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/espn-loses-1-5-million-subscribers-as-cord-cutting-accelerates-052816 So instead of getting ESPN thru a cable provider it can now be an app on a phone. I can tell you from traveling, having a streaming device to watch your home town sports team play is a welcome comfort. So the sales people that travel the country is a huge demographic for this. Cord cutters who just want sports and will find another means to watch shows are another. Then we can get into international customers both abroad and here in the states. I can name a number of people locally that are starved for Soccer matches and places to watch them. So on so forth. For the truly die hard savers, and if DIS offers it, they will get a monthly subscription and cancel in the months that their chosen sport is not active in. Which makes for a cyclical market. Now that is just devices. Then there are other ways to just get ESPN, sling being one and it currently has a 7 day free trial. So you can also sell equipment and subscriptions to homes that still want to watch sports but don't want to subscribe to cable. Finally, the cord cutters are not currently the land owners. They need to get a bit older yet. Once millennials start to settle down, start families and purchase property they'll become a huge consumer base for the basic creature comforts. Especially once they get into positions where they can have some discretionary money. We are talking 74.9 million potential customers that just hit their 30's. In the next ten years you are going to see a huge spike in consumption. Or the death of us all... Depending on your perspective. EDIT: Oh I forgot something. This is also a generation that grew up with Disney being an enormous part of their childhood. Even more so then me, a Gen Xer. VendaGoat fucked around with this message at 05:19 on Dec 9, 2016 |
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Dec 9, 2016 05:16
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VendaGoat posted:By doing a standalone service they also open up new means of streaming. Yeah, the thing is ESPN doesn't air your hometown sports team, they air weekly, national games. Unless you're a huge Monday Night Football fan or something this isn't going to attract travelers. As far as soccer, ESPN has got basically nothing. The English Premiere League is on NBC and La Liga is on something called BeIN Sports. They have a handful on Champions' League games per year and some MLS, good luck with that. VendaGoat posted:For the truly die hard savers, and if DIS offers it, they will get a monthly subscription and cancel in the months that their chosen sport is not active in. Which makes for a cyclical market. Now that is just devices. I guess this is possible, but on the other hand as millennials start to settle down baby boomers are going to start dying. Which group is more likely to have a traditional cable package? Basically I think ESPN is in terminal decline. They have variable income (which is going down) and fixed costs (which are going up). If the trends continue for even a few more years they could be in a lot of trouble much quicker than you think.
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Dec 9, 2016 05:27
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Dec 9, 2016 05:29
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Yeah thats pretty much what I'm getting at
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Dec 9, 2016 05:36
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R.A. Dickey posted:Yeah thats pretty much what I'm getting at I see potential customers, you see what?
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Dec 9, 2016 05:38
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VendaGoat posted:I see potential customers, you see what? Baby boomers (who are mostly traditional cable subscribers) dying off and being replaced by people who don't give a poo poo about cable and are going to consume media a la cart.
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Dec 9, 2016 05:47
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R.A. Dickey posted:Baby boomers (who are mostly traditional cable subscribers) dying off and being replaced by people who don't give a poo poo about cable and are going to consume media a la cart. As long as Mickey makes his money, who cares how, where, when or why it happens?
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Dec 9, 2016 05:53
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A Disney with the exclusive rights to license Marvel and Star Wars merch to idiot techbro millionaire manbabies is the safest bet this side of publicly traded cocaine,who even cares about Mickey/Back Catalog/Pixar at this point
shame on an IGA fucked around with this message at 06:44 on Dec 9, 2016 |
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Dec 9, 2016 06:42
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People will eventually realize the Marvel movies aren't that great. Maybe not tomorrow but eventually.
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Dec 9, 2016 07:29
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ESPN made a diasterous series of stupid bets, including the wrong football, but that shouldn't limit your repsect for Disney as a media company.
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Dec 9, 2016 13:55
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Pryor on Fire posted:Everyone is too scared now to have children, we will have noone to watch awful pixar poo poo in 2 years, short DIS thesis, genius my investment thesis is built around people wanting to escape their lovely reality though i'm pretty deep comics and games maybe i should add in some bullets and alcohol...
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Dec 9, 2016 14:25
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Josh Lyman posted:People will eventually realize the Marvel movies aren't that great. Maybe not tomorrow but eventually. you forgot the "willful" part of willful ignorance and nerds are really good at that. speaking from experience.
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Dec 9, 2016 15:11
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DIS is a cancer in my portfolio and I'm looking to cut it out ASAP. Being the big idiot I am, I got into DIS at around 113. I hope it makes it into the green for me in the next few months, but that's what I've been saying for a year now. That money is then going straight into ETFs.
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Dec 9, 2016 15:23
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leper khan posted:my investment thesis is built around people wanting to escape their lovely reality though On that note, ATVI or EA?
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Dec 9, 2016 15:29
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Chill Penguin posted:On that note, ATVI or EA? ATVI, they're better diversified across consoles, pc, and mobile. EA doesn't have much mobile presence and I wanted to make sure i didn't have some weird overexposure to sports given my position in DIS.
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Dec 9, 2016 15:35
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VendaGoat posted:Finally, the cord cutters are not currently the land owners. They need to get a bit older yet. Once millennials start to settle down, start families and purchase property they'll become a huge consumer base for the basic creature comforts. Especially once they get into positions where they can have some discretionary money. We are talking 74.9 million potential customers that just hit their 30's. In the next ten years you are going to see a huge spike in consumption. Streaming supersedes cable due to cable's weaknesses. I don't think home-ownership will make commercials or fixed-schedules acceptable. The trick will be in assimilating to the new medium. Trump guarantees Net Neutrality's demise. Telecoms will selectively meter anything outside their own offerings. This will be how people are brought back into the fold. New streaming services will be strangled in the crib.
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Dec 9, 2016 15:38
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"capitalism"
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Dec 9, 2016 15:43
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Chill Penguin posted:On that note, ATVI or EA? leper khan posted:ATVI, they're better diversified across consoles, pc, and mobile. EA doesn't have much mobile presence and I wanted to make sure i didn't have some weird overexposure to sports given my position in DIS. real talk though if i had any balls i'd get an oversized position in tencent. they own basically everything or at least a large chunk, and they make insane amounts of money. also props to naming your company after how much you pay your workers.
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Dec 9, 2016 15:46
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I've also been thinking about entertainment a lot lately and think that 7974 is the best pick in that space right now, just so many potentially huge new markets now that they're finally embracing phones and realizing they have a loving goldmine in the NES classic (and obvious future SNES/N64/whatever classics). ATVI seems interesting too, good price with call of duty getting tired.
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Dec 9, 2016 15:51
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Pryor on Fire posted:I've also been thinking about entertainment a lot lately and think that 7974 is the best pick in that space right now, just so many potentially huge new markets now that they're finally embracing phones and realizing they have a loving goldmine in the NES classic (and obvious future SNES/N64/whatever classics). ATVI seems interesting too, good price with call of duty getting tired. i like nintendo, but i'm planning on exposure to them via developing basement tier games on their upcoming platform.  my biggest concern with ATVI is the war chest they're dedicating to turning overwatch into an international sports ball thing. worked for riot though.
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Dec 9, 2016 16:03
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into LCI @ $25 
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Dec 9, 2016 16:47
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leper khan posted:my biggest concern with ATVI is the war chest they're dedicating to turning overwatch into an international sports ball thing. worked for riot though. Just think of all the timed exclusive tournament items they can make to spur more lootbox purchases.
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Dec 9, 2016 16:53
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https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/807249996085166081 We should all buy GS
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Dec 9, 2016 16:58
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Yup, just bought FNCL back.
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Dec 9, 2016 17:00
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Pryor on Fire posted:I've also been thinking about entertainment a lot lately and think that 7974 is the best pick in that space right now, just so many potentially huge new markets now that they're finally embracing phones and realizing they have a loving goldmine in the NES classic (and obvious future SNES/N64/whatever classics). ATVI seems interesting too, good price with call of duty getting tired. NTDOY is a hell of a lot easier.
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Dec 9, 2016 17:08
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drat DIS is on a tear this week. I have cancelled my $103 stop loss order and put in a 5% trailing stop now that we are rising the way we are. Profits are locked in and ExDiv was yesterday.
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Dec 9, 2016 17:28
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CloFan posted:You know, I'm pretty content with my current holdings in F, DIS, NVDA... and not-so-content in CSIQ. Wish I could turn that into AMD or VUZI, but I'm down 40% and feel like maybe I can still recover more if I hold? Meh cut your losses. That's just my opinion though of course. orange sky posted:https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/807249996085166081 If you guys haven't been buying GS on every single dip this last month then you done goofed.
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Dec 9, 2016 17:29
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