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I don't know why some people are acting like the evolutionary stage of "mostly autonomous in most situations, but with a licensed driver in the car in a position to take over" isn't likely to exist, and wouldn't itself be a massive improvement in driver safety. Why do we need to go directly from "car that requires my active involvement in driving at all times" to "car that can drive me home when I'm loaded?"
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Dec 20, 2016 21:55
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oh god it's happening again. please god someone grab the wheel and steer us away from this argument
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Dec 20, 2016 21:55
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Feral Integral posted:Uber wants to put 'autonomous' cars on the road that actually require a driver. But since the driver is under the impression that the car is autonomous, they are certainly going to slack off at some point and let the car drive itself while they post on some awful forum on the internet. The car then careens into the bike line or crossing guard or whatever the anomaly du jour is and murders people. Best part is that liability will be on the independent contractor sitting in the driver's seat for not following the rules.
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Dec 20, 2016 21:55
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MENE MENE TEKEL UBERCARSIN
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Dec 20, 2016 21:56
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NewForumSoftware posted:What makes you think it will take 25 years? Who is going to sue the manufacturers and make them stop? The reason it's going to happen and happen quickly is there is literally nobody who has an interest in self-driving cars not becoming a thing. Or at least nobody with the financial resources to slow down what's already happening. 25 years because the tech is still remarkably dumb. There needs to be way more actual work done on high level systems before they will work. The stuff that they are doing is the easy part. 90% of the work left is poo poo that needs real breakthroughs and infrastructure support to happen. I'm imagining the chaos that would happen if you unleashed one of these stutter start machines in Manhattan or Boston with the hugely dynamic problems they have and it makes my skin crawl. The tech will get there. It always does. But right now we have the equivalent of muskets and are making plans to go to war like we have M-4s.
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Dec 20, 2016 21:56
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PT6A posted:I don't know why some people are acting like the evolutionary stage of "mostly autonomous in most situations, but with a licensed driver in the car in a position to take over" isn't likely to exist, and wouldn't itself be a massive improvement in driver safety. I'd say that it's pretty unlikely we see cars without steering wheels or "manual overrides" but the reality is even with those in place you're still looking at an order of magnitude reduction in deaths at the minimum. Most people are wholly unaware of how dangerous cars are but I can assure you the policy makers and technologists have already moved in on this opening. There's money to be made and good to be done, I don't see litigation being an issue. Time posted:25 years because the tech is still remarkably dumb. There needs to be way more actual work done on high level systems before they will work. The stuff that they are doing is the easy part. 90% of the work left is poo poo that needs real breakthroughs and infrastructure support to happen. I'm imagining the chaos that would happen if you unleashed one of these stutter start machines in Manhattan or Boston with the hugely dynamic problems they have and it makes my skin crawl. The tech will get there. It always does. But right now we have the equivalent of muskets and are making plans to go to war like we have M-4s. Automating 90% of the driving (highways) is still going to result in a dramatic reduction in accidents/deaths. I tend to agree that manual overrides will be around for a long time because of the weather, "unknown unknowns", etc. but self-driving cars don't have to be perfect, they just have to be significantly safer than what we have now. NewForumSoftware fucked around with this message at 21:59 on Dec 20, 2016 |
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Dec 20, 2016 21:57
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NewForumSoftware posted:Automating 90% of the driving (highways) is still going to result in a dramatic reduction in accidents/deaths. I think we have different definitions of autonomous. What Tesla is doing right now isn't autonomous. I meant point a to point b with only input in emergency cases. If we are only talking about highway auto-assist then yeah sure in the next decade it'll be on all new cars and massively successful. We don't disagree at all in that case.
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Dec 20, 2016 22:04
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NewForumSoftware posted:Automating 90% of the driving (highways) is still going to result in a dramatic reduction in accidents/deaths. Yeah, a cruise control that can keep you in your lane, maintain a safe distance from other cars, and sound an obnoxious alarm to wake up the zoned-out driver when something weird happens would solve so many problems.
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Dec 20, 2016 22:09
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The fall of unicorns: disrupting self-driving car arguments
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Dec 20, 2016 22:12
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NewForumSoftware posted:Which is why elevators were never invented and we still use stairs. You should look into the history of elevators, it's quite fascinating. They were horribly unsafe at first and used primarily for cargo until Samuel Otis invented the safety elevator, so called because it failed safe. After that, using them for passengers became quite popular as you were not likely to die in them anymore.
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Dec 20, 2016 22:14
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i'm a car
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Dec 20, 2016 22:18
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duz posted:You should look into the history of elevators, it's quite fascinating. They were horribly unsafe at first and used primarily for cargo until Samuel Otis invented the safety elevator, so called because it failed safe. After that, using them for passengers became quite popular as you were not likely to die in them anymore. Yeah it took 25 years in the 1800s something tells me we're going to get it done faster this time around.
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Dec 20, 2016 22:21
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PT6A posted:I don't know why some people are acting like the evolutionary stage of "mostly autonomous in most situations, but with a licensed driver in the car in a position to take over" isn't likely to exist, and wouldn't itself be a massive improvement in driver safety. Because the end result is "I can totally drink drive and the car will take care of it" and then it doesn't. The thing about requiring driver input all the time is that you can't drive without giving that input at all times The car doesn't pitch you a THINKFAST when it fucks up, you're always watching for that yourself. OwlFancier fucked around with this message at 22:44 on Dec 20, 2016 |
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Dec 20, 2016 22:42
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NewForumSoftware posted:Yeah it took 25 years in the 1800s something tells me we're going to get it done faster this time around. This might make sense if we were inventing elevators again.
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Dec 20, 2016 22:49
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skull mask mcgee posted:This might make sense if we were inventing elevators again. It also might make sense if elevators were killing tens of thousands of people going about their daily lives before the advent of Otis' now ubiquitous elevator
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Dec 20, 2016 22:53
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Dr. Fishopolis posted:oh god it's happening again. Ok, so every self-driving uber is going to have a big button on the side, something like:  So if you're a cyclist and see that a car is going to merge and kill you, simply reach out to hit the button and gain the attention of the driver! Of course, we're going to put the drivers in the cloud and it may take a few seconds to sync the vehicle with an independently contracted drivr,
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Dec 20, 2016 22:57
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i want a car that says "i hosed up" in a calm robot voice just before i die in a fiery collision
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Dec 20, 2016 22:58
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Avshalom posted:i want a car that says "i hosed up" in a calm robot voice just before i die in a fiery collision in the future you'll wake up a week later in a Theranos Wellness Center after they perform a chemistry on your charred remains.
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Dec 20, 2016 23:08
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Autonomous cars are the stupidest loving thing. We already have vehicles that can drive themselves and avoid accidents to quickly and efficiently move people around. They're called trains.
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Dec 20, 2016 23:18
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NewForumSoftware posted:Yeah it took 25 years in the 1800s something tells me we're going to get it done faster this time around. The car has been around for over a hundred years now. I think we passed 25 years a bit ago.
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Dec 20, 2016 23:22
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PJOmega posted:The cars been around for over a hundred years now. I think we passed 25 years a bit ago. Actually that's a good point, how long did it take to go from the commercial invention of autos to the consumer adoption?
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Dec 20, 2016 23:23
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Avshalom posted:i want a car that says "i hosed up" in a calm robot voice just before i die in a fiery collision
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Dec 20, 2016 23:26
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NewForumSoftware posted:Actually that's a good point, how long did it take to go from the commercial invention of autos to the consumer adoption? About 75 years to 90% adoption, but that's probably got something to do with a great depression and a world war. edit: https://hbr.org/2013/11/the-pace-of-technology-adoption-is-speeding-up
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Dec 20, 2016 23:28
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NewForumSoftware posted:What makes you think it will take 25 years? Who is going to sue the manufacturers and make them stop? The reason it's going to happen and happen quickly is there is literally nobody who has an interest in self-driving cars not becoming a thing. Or at least nobody with the financial resources to slow down what's already happening. Their own legal departments will help. The question of liability in cases of accidents is a huge unknown. Taking on liability for every accident is not something GM or Ford wants.
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Dec 20, 2016 23:29
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NewForumSoftware posted:Actually that's a good point, how long did it take to go from the commercial invention of autos to the consumer adoption? the automobile was invented between 1770-1885 depending on what you define as the first automobile. by 1885 karl benz was producing vehicles which modern people would definitely call automobiles. they weren't popularly adopted until henry ford refined the mass production of automobiles in like 1909 and made cheap reliable cars for the masses
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Dec 20, 2016 23:30
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nm posted:Their own legal departments will help. The question of liability in cases of accidents is a huge unknown. Taking on liability for every accident is not something GM or Ford wants. Or Uber. How long has our legal system taken to sort out what Uber is doing with its drivers? 5 years and we still aren't done? The Uber version of reality where cars are driving around picking people up is about a decade after someone gets a for realsie autonomous car on the road, just so our legal system can catch up.
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Dec 21, 2016 00:08
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NewForumSoftware posted:What makes you think it will take 25 years? Here's the current state of the art https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CdJ4oae8f4 but even if they somehow miraculously make them not hilariously bad in an urban areas tomorrow, sorting out the liability for autonomous cars will take a decade at least. jre fucked around with this message at 00:20 on Dec 21, 2016 |
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Dec 21, 2016 00:16
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jre posted:Here's the current state of the art lol if you think Uber is state of the art anything other than VC money flaunting the law
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Dec 21, 2016 00:18
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NewForumSoftware posted:lol if you think Uber is state of the art anything other than VC money flaunting the law So what is the state of the art ?, the multi million dollar google car that crashed into a bus that was going 5 mph, or the tesla that ploughed into a stationary trailer at high speed killing the driver ?
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Dec 21, 2016 00:21
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jre posted:So what is the state of the art ?, the multi million dollar google car that crashed into a bus that was going 5 mph, or the tesla that ploughed into a stationary trailer at high speed killing the driver ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJaqRwG0Dfc also fwiw a single incident where a driver dies won't kill the technology, in fact that it's already happened and no legislation came of it is a pretty good signal that it won't happen you realize that this isn't about "are self driving cars going to be popular" it's going to happen and there's nothing you can do to stop it. economics always wins
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Dec 21, 2016 00:23
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Volvo you say ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsTxS6tg6xc But again you're ignoring the real problem that the legality of how much the driver is responsible and how much the manufacturer is responsible will take years to sort before any vaguely autonomous car is allowed to be sold
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Dec 21, 2016 00:26
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jre posted:But again you're ignoring the real problem that the legality of how much the driver is responsible and how much the manufacturer is responsible will take years to sort before any vaguely autonomous car is allowed to be sold It's not about the driver vs the manufacturer, it's about the insurance company and the manufacturer, who get along just fine thank you very much. Also vaguely autonomous cars are already sold, hell Tesla markets a feature called "Autopilot"
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Dec 21, 2016 00:27
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NewForumSoftware posted:It's not about the driver vs the manufacturer, it's about the insurance company and the manufacturer, who get along just fine thank you very much. So if my self driving car ploughs through kids on a crossing, I'm fine because the police will speak to the insurance company and the manufacturer and not to me ? quote:Also vaguely autonomous cars are already sold, hell Tesla markets a feature called "Autopilot" jre fucked around with this message at 00:32 on Dec 21, 2016 |
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Dec 21, 2016 00:29
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jre posted:So if my self driving car ploughs through kids on a crossing, I'm fine because the police will speak to the insurance company and the manufacturer and not to me ? No the police will pressure lawmakers to enact stricter regulation, which will just improve the quality of self-driving cars. quote:Which killed someone by driving full speed into an incredibly obvious obstacle and is likely to be regulated heavily in the near future Yes the government is going to regulate the poo poo out of <dangerous thing> any day now, just you wait! <old man shaking hand at sky.gif> take a look at the political landscape broceratops, ain't nobody interesting in stopping the flow of sweet sweet cash
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Dec 21, 2016 00:34
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NewForumSoftware posted:No the police will pressure lawmakers to enact stricter regulation, which will just improve the quality of self-driving cars. quote:Yes the government is going to regulate the poo poo out of <dangerous thing> any day now, just you wait! <old man shaking hand at sky.gif> They started in september https://www.transportation.gov/AV quote:take a look at the political landscape broceratops
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Dec 21, 2016 00:40
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jre posted:The police won't care about the quality of self driving cars because they will be too busy arresting you for manslaughter Fortunately drivers aren't held liable if the producer of said car was on the government's approved list of manufacturers quote:This is pretty much the definition of effort not being met with effort Effort is just waving your hand and saying "the regulation is coming, don't you worry"
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Dec 21, 2016 00:45
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jre posted:Which killed someone by driving full speed into an incredibly obvious obstacle and is likely to be regulated heavily in the near future People drive into stationary objects at full speed literally every single day and there isn't really any regulation heavily controlling that. Most of the time it's not even illegal.
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Dec 21, 2016 01:33
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Hey, guys! Let's talk about the Financial Times's Alphaville ripping its way through the xiphoid processes of a whole bunch of executives. Most of the links are paywalled, because they're to the FT.quote:Dan Wagner / Powa Technologies
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Dec 21, 2016 01:44
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I tried to warn the thread, I really did.
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Dec 21, 2016 02:09
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NewForumSoftware posted:In a single city or area? Should be pretty possible in the next few years.
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Dec 21, 2016 02:16
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