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I'm having a hard time conflating pressure relief valves as AI, though the rest of your point is accurate. edit: Why are my stupid one liners always top of page masterpieces. As a small business construction company manager, it has been interesting these last few years to see AI poking its head into estimating and design work for building construction. Oddly enough these reduce the need for white collar employment as opposed to blue collar. SpaceCadetBob fucked around with this message at 15:00 on Jan 18, 2017 |
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Jan 18, 2017 14:55
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A Buttery Pastry posted:You keep calling it "a quirk of human psychology", but isn't it basically just down to sub-optimal communication? Which is where self-driving cars come in, since they can communicate in a manner that would allow them to act in unison to solve traffic jams or to prevent them from forming in the first place. In any case, in regards to the topic of how great an efficiency gain you can get from that, you still have to take people into account as you move into less and less car dominated environments. If a pedestrian can step into the street at any point, then you're not going to be able to have the cars just tearing through the streets at high speeds, you'll have to settle for the cars distributing themselves in more efficient manner. Also acting in unison to prevent some traffic jams and decrease congestion is a pipe dream until a 100% of cars are autonomous, and it's a pipe dream to make a system of communication with so many autonomous agents that will work and take into account the realities of roads. And once you do all that, it's a pipe dream to think no person will then look at their car and realise they can mod the program to take advantage of every other car. It can kinda work on highways. Anything else that isn't a publicity stunt is decades away. dex_sda fucked around with this message at 14:59 on Jan 18, 2017 |
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Jan 18, 2017 14:56
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SpaceCadetBob posted:I'm having a hard time conflating pressure relief valves as AI, though the rest of your point is accurate. Because humans are complicate and humans are one application of AI, we generally believe AI to be necessarily a complicate thing. Sometimes even made of magic. A pressure valve is basically this: code:I believe is a good thing that we dispel myths about the complexity and... errrh.... magic of AI's.
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Jan 18, 2017 15:08
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Tei posted:Because humans are complicate and humans are one application of AI, we generally believe AI to be necessarily a complicate thing. Sometimes even made of magic. I hope this isn't a derail, but by this logic aren't all physical reactions AI? The colorado river/grand canyon would be code:
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Jan 18, 2017 15:15
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SpaceCadetBob posted:I hope this isn't a derail, but by this logic aren't all physical reactions AI? The colorado river/grand canyon would be For a lay person, AI means intelligent agents and intentionality. Basically whether Dennett's intentional stance can be said to apply. The problem is that you can take the intentional stance on simple systems like a thermostat. The thermostat wants to keep the temperature at 72 degrees so it achieves that goal by turning on the AC. In practice, AI has more to do with dealing with combinatorial explosion. AlphaGo was an achievement because it turned a search space that was intractable for a brute force approach into something that could be managed well enough to defeat a Go master.
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Jan 18, 2017 15:23
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SaTaMaS posted:For a lay person, AI means intelligent agents and intentionality. Basically whether Dennett's intentional stance can be said to apply. The problem is that you can take the intentional stance on simple systems like a thermostat. The thermostat wants to keep the temperature at 72 degrees so it achieves that goal by turning on the AC. In practice, AI has more to do with dealing with combinatorial explosion. And "Combinatorial explosions" sounds too scary. A way to demystify it would be to say: You are a detective and you find somebody in a apartment building is a murdered. You open each room, you find one person (potential murderer), but some rooms have more than one people. So for 4 rooms, theres a potential of 12 murderers. Now if the detective find that the murdered was a grown woman, he can strike out the names of children and men. It leave 4 potential murderers. If room 3 was empy when the murder happened, you can strike all the names of that room without checking them further (saving the detective some time). 1) Check all rooms 2) Put all the names in the notebook 3) Remove the names of the innocent (people with a alibi) 4) (optional) Remove names of people without a motivation 5) The name left is the murderer (or if you did 4, a very suspicious looking person) Tei fucked around with this message at 16:01 on Jan 18, 2017 |
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Jan 18, 2017 15:57
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Tei posted:Some powerful AI algorithm are really simple. You can get natural behavior, like how birds fly in flocks with a few lines of code, applying 3 simple rules. Would you say that a pocket calculator is an AI device?
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Jan 18, 2017 16:07
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shovelbum posted:Would you say that a pocket calculator is an AI device? Yes. It does additions and subtractions and even more complex task. We use to have young womens doing that job, when it was called "Computers". To be honest, a calculator do these operations much faster and reliable than me. Possibly if we do one of these "How smart you are?" internet quizs, the calculator will win with a score of 100 over 100, and I will not even get a 20.
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Jan 18, 2017 16:17
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I hate AI discussion. This is the part where somebody comes and write "But a calculator can't write poetry!". And I reply. "A calculator can write poetry if you program the calculator to write it" And I get the reply "But a calculator can't *feel* poetry". And I reply "You feel emotions because you are programmed that way". Lets not go this route. Ok, I have horrible opinions. Lets avoid starting this discussion.
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Jan 18, 2017 16:23
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Did you program a calculator to write your posts?  I understand what you're trying to say but this is just not what the general population or computer scientists understands as AI. In any case even an abacus can cost someone a job so the exact definition isn't particularly relevant for this thread.
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Jan 18, 2017 16:34
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We are going to have computers that can do literally every single possible task a human does while the human explains why it doesn't count (and the computer then re-explains why it doesn't count but does a better job)
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Jan 18, 2017 17:51
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sorry OOCC I do not believe you will ever be a real boy
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Jan 18, 2017 18:12
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:We are going to have computers that can do literally every single possible task a human does fortunately that means a computer wont have to gently caress you either
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Jan 18, 2017 18:34
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AI was a bad movie, yes. But! did it do a good job of exploring what it is to be human and therefore worth it as an introductory primer on consciousness? no it's trash sorry.
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Jan 18, 2017 18:35
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Postmates and DoorDash are testing delivery by robot
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Jan 18, 2017 18:51
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Im still not convinced that automation is actually happening. Go into any store like Wal-Mart, Target, or into any food place like McDonalds, it's still the same. There may be self-serve kiosks but the technology is still very primitive. Artifical intelligence doesnt exist. Robots are still dumb and clumsy. People are still going to be driving trucks and taxis, making and serving food, selling stuff to other humans, etc for a long time to come. I go on the internet and its OMG automation, but when i go outside into the real world, it's the same as its always been. So it seems like this histeria over automation and robots and ai is just bunk.
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Jan 19, 2017 04:18
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Blue Star posted:Im still not convinced that automation is actually happening. Go into any store like Wal-Mart, Target, or into any food place like McDonalds, it's still the same. There may be self-serve kiosks but the technology is still very primitive. Artifical intelligence doesnt exist. Robots are still dumb and clumsy. People are still going to be driving trucks and taxis, making and serving food, selling stuff to other humans, etc for a long time to come. I go on the internet and its OMG automation, but when i go outside into the real world, it's the same as its always been. So it seems like this histeria over automation and robots and ai is just bunk. It is overblown at the moment, but it will become a problem if Trump raises tariffs and accelerates the shift to automation.
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Jan 19, 2017 04:49
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SaTaMaS posted:It is overblown at the moment, but it will become a problem if Trump raises tariffs and accelerates the shift to automation. Trump has nothing to do with this, its simple technology: we're not there yet. Even if he raises tariffs, it wont lead to better ai, robots, automated systems, whatever you wanna call them. You cant rush this stuff.
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Jan 19, 2017 04:57
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Blue Star posted:Trump has nothing to do with this, its simple technology: we're not there yet. Even if he raises tariffs, it wont lead to better ai, robots, automated systems, whatever you wanna call them. You cant rush this stuff. You're talking about low-level service jobs when the threat is to manufacturing, and we are absolutely there. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_lfxPI5ObM edit:Also, have you seen all the big box stores closing due to Amazon? Kmart, Macys, Sears, Sports Authority SaTaMaS fucked around with this message at 05:05 on Jan 19, 2017 |
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Jan 19, 2017 05:01
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Im still not convinced that the horseless carriage is actually happening. Go into any city street or out to any farm, it's still the same. There may be a few horseless carriages but the technology is still very primitive. A self starter doesnt exist. They are still loud and unreliable. People are still going to be drawing trucks and taxis, plowing fields to grow food, racing, etc with horses for a long time to come. I go into the tavern and its OMG automobiles, but when i go outside into the real world, it's the same as its always been. So it seems like this histeria over machines putting horses out of work is just bunk.
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Jan 19, 2017 05:01
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Rastor posted:Im still not convinced that the horseless carriage is actually happening. Go into any city street or out to any farm, it's still the same. There may be a few horseless carriages but the technology is still very primitive. A self starter doesnt exist. They are still loud and unreliable. People are still going to be drawing trucks and taxis, plowing fields to grow food, racing, etc with horses for a long time to come. I go into the tavern and its OMG automobiles, but when i go outside into the real world, it's the same as its always been. So it seems like this histeria over machines putting horses out of work is just bunk. It still took decades and decades when cars were invented before they became common enough to make a difference for most people. And right now, the technologies havent even been invented yet. We're not even in the 1880s yet, to go with your metaphor. SaTaMaS posted:You're talking about low-level service jobs when the threat is to manufacturing, and we are absolutely there. Most people work service jobs, not manufacturing. Most people are going to be working retail, food service, delivery, sales, etc. for the rest of their lives. And Kmart,Sears closing has nothing to do with automation. Amazon is just another company that employs humans, though fewer of them because they dont have physical stores. But that isnt applicable to most businesses where you need humans to do stuff.
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Jan 19, 2017 05:08
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Blue Star posted:Most people work service jobs, not manufacturing. Most people are going to be working retail, food service, delivery, sales, etc. for the rest of their lives. And Kmart,Sears closing has nothing to do with automation. Amazon is just another company that employs humans, though fewer of them because they dont have physical stores. But that isnt applicable to most businesses where you need humans to do stuff. Amazon is heavily automated, they're the leader at it in the industry.
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Jan 19, 2017 05:15
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Blue Star posted:It still took decades and decades when cars were invented before they became common enough to make a difference for most people. And right now, the technologies havent even been invented yet. We're not even in the 1880s yet, to go with your metaphor. At peak horse there were 25 million horses in the USA. Now there are 4 million. The claim isn't that jobs are going to go to zero. The claim is that you need to figure out how to deal with a number that shrinks to 40% smaller, maybe more, in just a few decades. Note: 25% unemployment is a massive, crushing depression.
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Jan 19, 2017 05:25
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Blue Star posted:Im still not convinced that automation is actually happening. Go into any store like Wal-Mart, Target, or into any food place like McDonalds, it's still the same. There may be self-serve kiosks but the technology is still very primitive. Artifical intelligence doesnt exist. Robots are still dumb and clumsy. People are still going to be driving trucks and taxis, making and serving food, selling stuff to other humans, etc for a long time to come. I go on the internet and its OMG automation, but when i go outside into the real world, it's the same as its always been. So it seems like this histeria over automation and robots and ai is just bunk. I don't want to say exactly where I work but my workplace is absolutely getting automated and it's a lot better paying than some retail job. The fact that it pays well is why they're trying to automate so fast - min wage jobs might not be worth it.
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Jan 19, 2017 06:56
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Tei posted:Steam stuff There are a bunch of us on SA with maritime backgrounds. A group of posters (mostly outside of d&d) have licenses relating to these steam systems.
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Jan 19, 2017 07:17
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UnfortunateSexFart posted:I don't want to say exactly where I work but my workplace is absolutely getting automated and it's a lot better paying than some retail job. The fact that it pays well is why they're trying to automate so fast - min wage jobs might not be worth it. Same, I'm a mariner and Rolls Royce is working on entirely automated ships with no crews, as opposed to the heavily automated ships with small crews we have today. Edit: oh god it's me I'm the goon with the steam license don't make me go on a steamship
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Jan 19, 2017 07:17
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To bring some numbers into the discussion, let's look at projected employment over the next 7 years courtesy of the BLS: https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables.htm  Not all of these are due solely or even majorly from automation of course, some are due to changes in demographics or just technology generally (postal carriers for instance; already the post office is making a push towards doing more package delivery as actual letter volume outside of advertisements drops). Some would be interesting to get some additional information on though: programmers are expected to drop 20,000 positions, but software devs are expected to be big growth positions, but I'm curious what extent of that is devs just doing the programming themselves moving forward. Fast food cooks are expected to plummet, but food prep and serving workers including fast food will rise; I think that makes a lot of sense even if you consider it in a smaller environment of a single fast food place. If you can reduce the teller to one person who assists users with touchscreens and one person who oversees an assembly line of food robots and brings those meals out to customers personally / to vehicles, that seems pretty reasonable. Of course these estimates could be incorrect as well what with different technologies becoming available or global thermonuclear war or what have you, but it serves as a useful baseline to consider short term.
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Jan 19, 2017 07:18
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shovelbum posted:Same, I'm a mariner and Rolls Royce is working on entirely automated ships with no crews, as opposed to the heavily automated ships with small crews we have today. How do you think they'll prevent people from stealing stuff off the ships or messing with them? Not that pirates boarding robot ships isn't sci-fi as hell and worth doing just for that.
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Jan 19, 2017 07:36
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Solkanar512 posted:Wait, for the businesses that have actually installed AI, what was it that was actually installed? Mostly banking and finance so far but they mentioned insurance, government departments and health.
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Jan 19, 2017 08:10
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So, I know we're all enjoying talking about robotic cars and factories, but I'm curious if any of you have thoughts on automated science. I remember this coming up a couple months ago and I was impressed as hell. http://www.wired.co.uk/article/computer-develops-scientific-theory-independently http://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004295 Two guys at Tufts University wrote a program that developed an independent scientific theory for how planarian worms regenerate. It wasn't just number crunching but actually developed and tested it's own theory. It didn't get as much coverage as AlphaGO but it was up there in AI achievements. Took them years to set it up but it came up with the correct solution in three days.
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Jan 19, 2017 09:10
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Blue Star posted:Im still not convinced that automation is actually happening. Go into any store like Wal-Mart, Target, or into any food place like McDonalds, it's still the same. There may be self-serve kiosks but the technology is still very primitive. quote:Artifical intelligence doesnt exist. quote:Robots are still dumb and clumsy. People are still going to be driving trucks and taxis, making and serving food, selling stuff to other humans, etc for a long time to come. I go on the internet and its OMG automation, but when i go outside into the real world, it's the same as its always been. So it seems like this histeria over automation and robots and ai is just bunk.
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Jan 19, 2017 11:31
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Cicero posted:Technology has a habit of not being there for a long time until it suddenly is; it's slow for a long time, then suddenly fast. For a long time attempts at good natural language processing or image interpretation were terrible and useless...until suddenly they were useful. Climate change and resource depletion are going to put the kabosh on all of that. We dont have to worry about automation because by the time the technology actually gets good enough, we'll be too hosed anyway. I honestly dont expect industrialized civilization to last through the century. If the human race survives, there'll be plenty of jobs available to people: farmers, blacksmiths, hunters, etc.
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Jan 19, 2017 14:36
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If you're just gonna post dumb nihilistic poo poo why are you even in this thread
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Jan 19, 2017 14:44
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Blue Star posted:Im still not convinced that automation is actually happening. Go into any store like Wal-Mart, Target, or into any food place like McDonalds, it's still the same. There may be self-serve kiosks but the technology is still very primitive. Artifical intelligence doesnt exist. Robots are still dumb and clumsy. People are still going to be driving trucks and taxis, making and serving food, selling stuff to other humans, etc for a long time to come. I go on the internet and its OMG automation, but when i go outside into the real world, it's the same as its always been. So it seems like this histeria over automation and robots and ai is just bunk. There's already plenty of automation in those jobs that has significantly reduced the number of workers needed - it's just so commonplace now that you don't even think of it as automation because it's rare to see those jobs being done without that technology. Barcode scanners, for example, were a major labor-saving invention. They seem quaint by our standards today, but they were revolutionizing grocery stores just a couple decades ago. Back in the 70s, each individual item had to have a price sticker on it, and the cashier would have to manually enter every price into the cash register. The deployment of retail barcode systems meant that cashiers could check out customers much more quickly - and therefore fewer cashiers were needed to handle the same volume of customers in a reasonable period of time. It vastly simplified inventory management as well, noticeably decreasing the manpower that was needed to keep shelves stocked, prices updated, and restocking orders placed. To this day, many plans for further automating grocery stores, like self-checkouts and portable carry-around scanners, still rely on barcode technology.
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Jan 19, 2017 17:06
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Tesla's crash rate dropped 40 percent after Autopilot was rolled out. One aspect not everyone may have thought about is that if there are fewer car crashes, there are also fewer organ donations.
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Jan 19, 2017 19:12
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Rastor posted:Tesla's crash rate dropped 40 percent after Autopilot was rolled out. Here's hoping that computer's theory about regeneration might lead to practical human application.
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Jan 20, 2017 01:36
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Rastor posted:One aspect not everyone may have thought about is that if there are fewer car crashes, there are also fewer organ donations.
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Jan 20, 2017 01:39
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Rastor posted:.. I am not a expert, but I believe few people are voluntary organ donors. If more people get that route it would make the availability greater. On top of that advancements in quick transportations will help organ donations, since the organs will meet the receiver faster. Is possibly a matter to do some propaganda to get more people to enroll in voluntary organ donor. Then science may find ways to grown tissues and maybe even full organs, so taking the organ from other human body is not more neccesary. 
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Jan 20, 2017 01:47
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Another thing about the steam stuff, it's where systems thinking and controls theory comes from. You have to have to understand a diagram of the cycle to really run a steam plant with pneumatic controls. The same control valves, how they are used to affect the system that's where controls really gets its start. Later the rocket and aerospace industries really run with controls. But if you model just about anything you use those concepts. Edit : I hate autocorrect Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 02:42 on Jan 20, 2017 |
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Jan 20, 2017 02:34
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Tei posted:I am not a expert, but I believe few people are voluntary organ donors. If more people get that route it would make the availability greater. Well... no. The voluntary donors are the people that the organs are already coming from. Voluntary doesn't mean 'oh you need a heart? Well take mine right now!' It means when you die in some way that doesn't ruin your organs (i.e. a car crash), they can take them out and get them to people who need them. If people aren't dying in accidents that leave their organs healthy and useful, but instead dying from heart disease or cancer or other ailments that make their organs undesirable, then you have an organ shortage problem. But yeah there is also some hope that we'll get to the point of growing artificial organs soon, so maybe that will cancel out the problem. If president jackass doesn't decide to nuke all the scientists on a whim, of course.
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