Bad w/ Money: I just paid for a fat bitches Electric Cock Zapping Sex Toy in Kentucky

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Bad w/ Money: I just paid for a fat bitches Electric Cock Zapping Sex Toy in Kentucky

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crazypeltast52: May 5, 2010

Nail Rat posted:

He needs to downsize and apply some of that sweet windfall to the debt, but after closing costs he won't net enough from the sale to completely eradicate it. He's 39 and worse than worthless. drat. All because he didn't want to eat rice and beans I guess.

Actually, a refi to 80% ltv and 30 year amortization could net him cash to deleverage his high interest rate debt and reduce his mortgage payment by about a grand if we assume his interest rate goes up to like 4.25%.

# ? Jan 27, 2017 22:24

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# ? May 16, 2024 09:53

Barry: Aug 1, 2003; Hardened Criminal

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

What the hell are his 3 unsecured loans for?

Also, his wife doesn't work, but they have 2 cars (his wife's is worth 28k) and he thinks that losing the house is better than canceling his kids' dance lessons because it would make them look poor and not be "a better life than I had."

Who knows because he even said that he owns both the cars (how he managed that is anyone's guess).

quote:

I agree. I'm a hardcore Verizon guy as I worked there for a long time. My internet is actually very cheap, phone service has crept up over the years and is most of that line item. I have elderly family members on my plan to help them out, probably need to get them to pitch in more.

While it's noble of him to help out his elders, I think the general head in the sand attitude is probably what got him in this mess. You're beyond broke and paying phone bills for multiple people?

At least he's being positive and accepting of advice. Whether he'll act on it is anyone's guess.

# ? Jan 27, 2017 22:25

Star War Sex Parrot: Oct 2, 2003

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

What the hell are his 3 unsecured loans for?

Barry posted:

$5200 incoming, $6400 debt service/bills with no mention of food/clothing/household expenses.

Presumably, that.

# ? Jan 27, 2017 22:25

Nail Rat: Dec 29, 2000; You maniacs! You blew it up! God damn you! God damn you all to hell!!

crazypeltast52 posted:

Actually, a refi to 80% ltv and 30 year amortization could net him cash to deleverage his high interest rate debt and reduce his mortgage payment by about a grand if we assume his interest rate goes up to like 4.25%.

How? Assuming closing costs are zero(not true in any refinance I've ever heard of, but obviously it's nothing compared to a sale), 80% LTV is 340k; he has 300k owed, meaning he'd net 40k. His high interest debt is 120k.

I might be missing something here I fully admit, I'd just like to know how exactly he nets 120k from a refinance while keeping 20% equity in this situation.

Obviously, he should not have gone with a 15 year mortgage in his situation so I get how the payment would be going down by so much.

# ? Jan 27, 2017 23:05

Barry: Aug 1, 2003; Hardened Criminal

quote:

Currently you pay $5,730/mo. for all your CC, Personal Loans and Mortgage. You can get that down to $3,830/mo. by doing the following:

Re-fi the house to a 30-year. Even if your house is worth at least $420,000, you can borrow up to 80% LTV which is $336,000. That means you should be able to take out $36,000 in cash ($336,000 - $300,000). If you get a 4.5% interest rate on a 30-year note of $336k your monthly payment is only $1,700. It looks like you have about $500/mo in taxes and insurance going into escrow based on your mortgage payment, so that $1,700 will turn into $2,200.

With the $36,000 you get out of the house, pay off the $26k and $10k loans. That eliminates $1,400 in monthly payments. That $1,400 plus the $500 savings on your mortgage ($2700 - $2200) is a savings of $1900 per month.

So now your monthly expenses (as you listed) are down to $4,700 and you're taking in $5,200 every 4 weeks. There is not a lot of room there, but you can do it. After executing all of those major moves, then you start to worry about reducing monthly expenses as much as you can, and paying off your highest interest rate loans.

A reasonable sounding plan. Not sure how easy it is to do a re-fi when your DTI is trash though.

# ? Jan 27, 2017 23:16

Noctone: Oct 25, 2005; XO til we overdose..

Wouldn't surprise me if those personal loans are refinanced credit card debt.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 00:04

crazypeltast52: May 5, 2010

Nail Rat posted:

How? Assuming closing costs are zero(not true in any refinance I've ever heard of, but obviously it's nothing compared to a sale), 80% LTV is 340k; he has 300k owed, meaning he'd net 40k. His high interest debt is 120k.

I might be missing something here I fully admit, I'd just like to know how exactly he nets 120k from a refinance while keeping 20% equity in this situation.

Obviously, he should not have gone with a 15 year mortgage in his situation so I get how the payment would be going down by so much.

I should have specified that it was some and not all, but even 30k-ish would take a chunk off his payments.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 00:12

H110Hawk: Dec 28, 2006

Chatting with a coworker who is manually scrap booking things for her upcoming wedding: "Dare I ask about your budget?" *hushed tone* "I'm currently about 20k over... I mean I went $4k over on the venue."

My jaw dropped. Apparently she had a $20k budget to start with, which is high but not obscenely so for an "all in" number. (Yes, yes, you did a horseless boatless wedding for under $1000 at the courthouse.) To my knowledge neither her nor her fiance are "high earners" and their wedding is in the off season.

We actually priced this place out when we were looking to get married. Reviewing my spreadsheet an on-peak wedding there which included venue, 2-meat choice plated catering, cake, 5 hours of open bar w/ liquor, and champagne toast was $17,394 all in.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 00:15

Sephiroth_IRA: Mar 31, 2010

Talked co-worker out of going to Full Sail for graphic design the other day. She told me her boyfriend was already 50,000 in debt and was just about to get his degree in game design from Full Sail, his final project is basically a pong clone.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 00:59

Star War Sex Parrot: Oct 2, 2003

Sephiroth_IRA posted:

Talked co-worker out of going to Full Sail for graphic design the other day. She told me her boyfriend was already 50,000 in debt and was just about to get his degree in game design from Full Sail, his final project is basically a pong clone.

I know a guy that went to Full Sail for Game Design. Now he teaches Game Design at Full Sail. I wonder how that's working out for him.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 01:01

Subjunctive: Sep 12, 2006; ✨sparkle and shine✨

Sounds like he beat the game, got the neutral ending.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 01:19

Sephiroth_IRA: Mar 31, 2010

She had told us that her boyfriend was unhappy with Full Sail and that he was annoyed that he was expected to learn coding when all he wanted to do was design games. This confused me, I don't know a lot about game design but I kinda assume a basic understanding of programming would be useful for anyone no matter what they were doing so I asked her what he thought he'd be doing if he wasn't coding.

Her: "Designing games"

Me: "Uh but what part? There's graphic design, music, coding.."

Her: "No designing the game, like the idea guy that comes up with the game."

Me: Oh.

I left it at that because she's actually a really great person to work with and I didn't want to hurt her feelings. She said her boyfriend was basically almost finished with the program anyway so it's not like I could save them any money at that point. A few weeks later she mentioned the graphic design idea and I encouraged her to look into whether or not Full Sail graduates were finding jobs in their respective fields or not and to consider going to community college for free instead.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 01:19

Haifisch: Nov 13, 2010; Objection! I object! That was... objectionable!; Taco Defender

Sephiroth_IRA posted:

Her: "No designing the game, like the idea guy that comes up with the game."

Anyone who wants to be an 'idea guy' should have to job shadow in their industry of choice for a year before they're allowed to do anything stupid, like go to Full Sail.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Also, his wife doesn't work, but they have 2 cars (his wife's is worth 28k) and he thinks that losing the house is better than canceling his kids' dance lessons because it would make them look poor and not be "a better life than I had."

Apparently one of their kids is special needs & her working would be more expensive than getting care for that. No idea why she can't work from home or on the days he's off, though.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 02:09

curufinor: Apr 4, 2016; by Smythe

This is extremely extremely long but it is worth reading in complete and total entirety

idiot on reddit posted:

Three and a half years ago, my favorite uncle died after a short battle with cancer. Up until the moment he died, none of us even knew he was sick. Uncle Richard was a secretive man who lived a secretive life. He didn�t like to discuss his personal matters. We saw him once or twice per year, at family gatherings, where he usually stood alone in a corner, slowly drinking his brandy and seven-up.

I was one of the few people who took the time to go talk to him. Truth be told, I rather enjoyed his presence. He was a tenacious listener and he had the gift of always making you feel appreciated. After his wife died in her late 40s, I think he had some kind of breakdown, from which he never recovered. I know that he truly loved her and the rest of his life was spent living alone in something he sometimes described to me as an "unending fog." Our family invited him because, well, he was part of the family, and also because he was generous with his bottles of homemade wine, perhaps his only passion in life, or at least the only one that we knew of.

The day he passed away, I learned he was bequeathing me over 2.5 million dollars.

My uncle had never really had a career or a profession of any kind. He stuck to the usual odd jobs, being a trucker here, working in security there, even teaching at some point, but he would usually never last long. When he died, everyone was shocked at the fortune he had managed to amass. But my uncle was an ascetic and austere man: he lived in the same, tiny house he had built by himself for $10,000 decades ago, drove a car that was older than me and wore the same clothes quite possibly since his high school times, year after year. He preferred to repair rather than rebuy and still had that giant, clumsy television from the 80s instead of that shiny new LCD. All in all, it�s crazy to think what an average man, living an average life, can accumulate over 45 years of his life if he puts his will to the task.

He had no one to give his money to, I guess. No children, no wife and no friends that we knew of. I remember I was driving back from some boring class at some boring community college when I got the call. I was so �estomaqu� (stomached?) I had to pull over on the highway, first of all because I had no idea he had passed away or that he was even sick, second to ask the notary to repeat the amount he was reading to me. Up to that point, I myself had been drifting from a place to another, not unlike him, from a formation in accounting that led me nowhere to some useless telemarketer job. The call, from his will executor, changed my life completely.

With his legacy came one small letter, visibly scribbled quickly days before his death, if that, on a single sheet of paper (loose translation):

�Frank,

As a kid, I was told that life was a game. Now that I�m all grown up, I can tell you that life is indeed a game; just not a very fun one.

R.�

And that was it. A few months later, one or two court fights later (some family members tried to contest the will, of course) and I was a rich man, my life forever changed. My first reaction was to want to place half in an index fund and now that I look at it today, I can�t tell you how badly I wish I had done that. But I didn�t and one of the biggest bad streak of my life would soon begin.

I wanted to trade. I had always wanted to trade and the world of daytrading seemed like a utopia to me. At first, I had success. People might remember my big Apple bet a few years ago where I essentially made $30,000 in under a week. Looking back at it today, much later, I regret winning that trade. Perhaps if I had lost everything on that trade, it would have disgusted me from trading forever and I would still have much of that $2.5M today. But I won, and I won for a good while, and it kept me going.

Then, I began to lose.

I lost $500,000 due to the oil crash in late 2014. I had a ton of Canadian stock (the TSX went down something like 30% at some point) and many, many oil stocks. I made it all back in early 2015, then lost it all again in the first six months of the year, plus another $500,000 for the rest of the year. I was panicking, hardcore, as a million dollars is no small amount to lose, Canadian or American.

I lost $100,000 in one night to Brexit. Another $50,000 betting on Hillary. The summer of 2016 specifically was particularly cruel to me. People who were there will remember that I lost pretty much every single time. I was tilting, because I knew I was making the right trades, yet losing time after time after time. But I knew I had done it before and I knew, or at least thought, that I could do it again.

I lost on several failed investments, from a stupid fast-food restaurant I wanted to start (which I won�t name) to an apartment building where I lost my shirt. I also lost a fortune at the casino, mostly on blackjack (man, the swings I got) and certainly poker. At my worst, I lost $30,000 in a week playing $5/$10 poker. I got absolutely horrific hands and I got so many bad beats I stopped counting them. Yeah.

So to make a short story, this brings us to today. From the original amount, I have $325,000 Canadian left. I have a $100,000 personal loan at 8% (yeah), a $51,000 credit card debt accruing at 19% per year and various debts ranging from 6 to 10%. Oh man I feel so dumb � I could have paid the car I am driving in cash, but somehow I ended up getting financing because� Because.

If I liquidated all my positions and stopped trading today, yes, I could probably repay my debts. And then what? I would have almost nothing left, nothing at all. My $2.5M would be gone forever and perhaps most of my mental sanity along with it. What�s the point? Truth be told, at this point, I have really nothing to lose. Worst case scenario, this yolo fails and I go bankrupt. If I'm going out, well, I'm going out big. I'd rather take my chance to get my money back.

This is perhaps my last chance in life to �hit it big,� aka be someone. I won�t get another chance like this. Look, I�ll be blunt: I want my two point five million back. It�s mine and I want it back, period. Unless you�ve hit it big and lost it all, you don�t know how incredibly painful it is to look at $325,000 and think, �Yeah, this used to be 7 times higher.�

And here comes the Yolo.

I began my career with Apple, I�m ending it with Apple. No matter what happens, this is going to be my final Yolo. I�m sorry, I wish I could continue, but I�m tired of trading. It's morally and emotionally exhausted and over the last two years, it's really taken a huge toll of my health, both mental and physical. Some of you might have noticed the (subtle) changes in my personality and demeanors. It is time for me to stop making a fool out of myself and stop suffering. I am tired of perpetually losing money. That Google trade was the last straw. Even though I called the earnings perfectly, I still somehow lost money. The stock market is rigged and I am done with it.

People who know me well know that I am an Apple expert. Without a doubt, Apple is my specialty. I called the exact iPhones sales, revenues and estimates pretty much every quarter, and I can tell you Apple is about to get a massive miss. Notice how there is no real �hype� around those earnings? That�s because for the first time in, like, forever, Apple has failed majorly. They don�t want to foam around it because they know very well it�s going to be catastrophic.

iPhone sales will be down 10-15% - and that will be the good part of their earnings report. iPads are basically dead. The iPad pro is nothing more than a joke. It probably sold less than the Pixel. Okay, not that bad, but trust me, iPad sales have been terrible for a while and this time, they�ll be so bad Apple might actually throw in the towel. Truth be told, Apple is 2+ years late and 5+ years late in some sectors when compared to the industry.

And apart from iPhone and iPads, What else does Apple has at this point? Mac sales are down, the iPod is dead, the Apple Watch� let�s not even mention the Apple Watch lol. What else does Apple have? iTunes revenues? That�s like a billion dollars, who cares.

Look at recent tech earnings: Google, WDC, QCOM� All freaking terrible! The entire sector is going down and Apple, with its overpriced crap (it almost hurts me to write that) is at the forefront. An iPhone is up to $ 1,400 here. I mean, like, what were they thinking?

I could go on and on explaining why Apple is going to crater after earnings. Basically, it almost always does. Look at the past earnings: even when it did beat earnings estimates, it crashed afterwards. Apple is just a very emotional stock and people like to mass sell it after earnings. And with how bad things are, there is no chance in hell Apple will beat earnings.

Apple is not dead, but it�s going to slowly drift down into the abyss (See: Blackberry, Nokia, etc.). No one can remain at the top forever and with so many companies producing phones, many of them far better than the iPhone, it simply doesn�t stand a chance. I mean, the iPhone is like 65% of the profits. And this brings me to my main points: the iPhone 7 is a fiasco. Worst, it is going against the VERY popular and lucrative iPhone 6s (the �S� series always earns Apple more profits as the machines are already calibrated) AND the strongest line of Android phones of all times.

Okay, name me ONE thing about the iPhone 7. Go! When you think iPhone 7, you think�

� no headphone jack. That�s it. The iPhone 7 has no headphone jack. I dare you to name me ONE thing that is different with the iPhone 7 when compared to the 6s. Go. Without looking it up, even I couldn�t find anything. And when your main selling point is a feature disappearing, it�s not good.

For the first time in like forever, it seems the iPhone had no hype at all. Perhaps everyone has one yet, perhaps no one saw enough reason to upgrade (waiting for 7s?) or perhaps no one cared, but I can tell you the iPhone 7 is an astounding failure. Oh, they sold tens of millions, but it�s plain and simply not enough. Have you seen many people with an iPhone 7? Have you seen many people with an Apple Watch (which has been turned into the subject of a mockery) Yeah, I thought so.

In simple words, Apple has lost it. It went from being a simple company with a simple product line to some jammed messed. Everyone remembers the iPhone. There was ONE iPhone and one iPhone alone. Now, there are something like 10 different iPhones available with so many options nobody knows what's going on. iPhone 7, 6, 6 plus, 6s, 6s plus, Se... What the hell is that? And I'm not even speaking of the 20 different colors that make no sense. And just look at the Apple Watch and try to understand what's going on: apple watch 2, apple watch Nike+, apple watch hermes, apple watch edition, apple watch 1... Seriously what the heck is that thing?

Speaking of technology, Apple has fallen so far behind it's not funny anymore. The iPhone SE still comes with 16GB!!! Sixteen GB!!!!! Is this some kind of joke? My operating system takes more than 16 GB! How many minutes of video can you record with 16GB! Compare that to Android which often come with SD cards and possibly terabytes of data and you've got a real joke on your hand. And almost every Android phone outperforms the iPhone in every mark. The iPhone isn't even the top phone anywhere anymore - it's gone, people!

All in all, we face the same problems we faced in 2012 when Apple�s stock crashed from $100 to $60: dying business lines (iPod at the time) and no innovation at all. Apple was able to save face once, and then again, not really: it underperformed the index from 2012 to today, only going up 20% in 5 years in a period where the S&P500 basically doubled. Tomorrow�s dreadful earnings will mark the end of Apple as an innovative company as we know it. It will now be priced as a commodity company and this implies a much, much lower valuation.

Google is still able to grow. Microsoft is still about to grow. Apple is about to report a sharp drop in earnings, around 15-20% and perhaps as large as 25%, if they are honest (they can still fudge the number somewhat). With much lower iPhone sales, it�s simply not possible for them to beat the very inflated earnings estimates. This sharp drop in earnings, coupled with a terrible guidance for the rest of 2017 (strong USD, world tensions due to Trump, Apple failing in China � all points I don�t have time to cover, but which are very valid) will lead to Apple getting one of the biggest hits in the history of hits.

I�ll be blunt: Apple will drop 8-10% in afterhours (maybe more), it will open down 15% the next day and end the day down more 20%. Yes, that�s how bad it is. And I�ll be there to earn a fortune from it. As I said, I want my millions back.

My #Yolo is designed in a very specific way. It�s designed so that even if I am wrong (which I am not), I will not lose money. Yep, it's that good. Before I try to explain it to you, let me explain this: I am 99.9% certain AAPL is going to plummet post-earnings, but as there always is no way for me to know for sure. There is so much market manipulation some banks might keep it from falling more than 2-3% just to be able to liquidate their calls at the opening bell, etc. For this reason, I chose longer- expiration options as Apple will most likely keep dropping in the days to follow (as more and more people realize Apple is the next Blackberry and start selling their fund. People can�t liquidate a $2-3B position overnight). Thus, I chose the monthly, February 17th expiration. Big manipulators might be able to manipulate the price somewhat, but not very long.

I also made my trade voluntarily more complex to account for all possible scenarios (more on that later). I have been screwed by big funds before and I have designed this trade so that even if I get screwed, I won�t lose money.

So, without further ado, here is my yolo:

http://i.imgur.com/F82Tspq.jpg

1) I bought $120 puts, twice the amount of $115 puts, 4 times the amount of $110 puts, 8 times the amount of $105 puts and 16 times of $100 puts. Those are unbelievably cheap ATM. TOTAL COST: $100,000 USD.

2) To cover the premium paid for those puts, I sold a massive amount of $120 calls. I used the entire premium to buy the puts (and the calls below).

3) To be allowed to make that trade (margin requirement is crazy on naked calls), I bought a ton of $128 calls. This is a vertical spread which allows me to do the trade as I want it. Of course, there is no chance AAPL is $128 after earnings, but without those calls, I would need a $2M+ cushion in margin, which I don�t have (anymore). TOTAL CREDIT: $100,000 USD.

4) All in all, this trade has cost me nothing to do . That�s right: $0 upfront cost! Free!

5) To get the margin required for this trade, I had to sell all my long-term stocks and ALL my other plays. Some of the margin is also taken from my Credit card but at this point, it doesn�t make a difference.

A 100K YOLO FOR 100K WSB SUBSCRIBERS! If you want to have fun, draw the payout that comes from this strategy.

So, what will happen on earnings? Well, simply said: IT IS SIMPLY NOT POSSIBLE FOR APPLE TO SPIKE UP POST-EARNINGS. It didn�t happen to Google, it didn�t happen to Western Digital, Qualcomm or even Intel or Microsoft (2%! Yay!), despite excellent earnings (which Apple won�t have). Based on that, here are all the possible scenarios that could happen, ranked from worst to best, along with what would happen to me:

1) The Google Gambit: Big funds play the �oh they had one below average quarter but they are still growing and they have huge product lines coming (yeah, right)� � stock miraculously only drops 1-2% (like GOOG) is - I don�t make any money, but I don�t lose any either. I�m pissed off. Likelihood:< 1%

2) The Qualcomm Quack: Apple somehow miraculously saves face by playing with inventories/supplies/doing Valeant stuff. Then, the stock would drop only 3-4%. I would make a little bit of money. Likelihood: 4%

3) The �we barely got away with that one� scenario: Apple cheats and starts buying its own iPhones to prevent the number from crumbling too bad. It�s a bad quarter, but not too bad. Apple crashes to $118 in AH and then drifts down to $115. I essentially double my money, a $100,000 gain. Likelihood: 20%

4) The �last minute wildcard� scenario: Apple somehow managed to earn more than I thought on some miracle play (hedging). Earnings are down by quite a bit. Apple crashes to $115 and barely stays above $110 in the next few trading sessions. I essentially quadruple my money, a $300,000 gain. Likelihood: 25%

5) The �Back in the Basement� Scenario: Apple is honest about its terrible quarter and results, but downplays it and people somehow buy it. Apple crashes to $112 in AH and drifts down to $105 by Feb 17. I essentially sixtuple my money. A $500,000 gain. Likelihood:15%

6) The Meltdown Scenario Apple: is honest about its terrible quarter and investors aren�t dumb. They mass sell the stock. It crumbles to $105 in AH and some idiots buy it thinking it�s a �bargain.� I make over a million overnight and another $250,000 in the days that follow. It crashes to $95 by Feb 17. *Likelihood: 25% *

7) The �Hillary Clinton Scenario�: It�s worse than I thought. Tim Cook apologizes and steps down, citing personal problems. Apple plummets below $100 in AH. People panic, everyone wants to sell, it�s on the top of every newspapers. It opens at $101 the next day, immediately gaps below $97 and then spiral down to $90 where it belongs (maybe even lower, but let�s keep it at that). I more than fiftytuple my money, making $5,000,000. *Likelihood: 10% *

So, what is the expected expectancy of that trade? it�s 1% * $0 + 4% * $15,000 + 20% * $100,000 + 25% * $300,000 +15% * $500,000 + 25% * $1,150,000 + 10% *$5,000,000= $958,100.

Here�s a graph with possible payouts. The top column shows the price of apple, the leftmost row the gain for each put (remember, $0 initial cost � costs are covered):

http://i.imgur.com/X6z7W1T.jpg

Understand this: Apple WILL drop post-earnings. There is absolutely no way whatsoever it can go up. It can�t happen. I mean, Google is down by quite a bit after its earnings, the entire tech sector is down, but AAPL somehow stays at $122. Okay. I am hoping for a massive, massive, MASSIVE drop obviously. I wouldn�t be satisfied with Apple dropping to $115, for example.

I expect to make close to a million from that trade, although there is a lot of possible variance. Obviously, I wouldn�t be happy with the $100,000 scenario as this is my chance, and probably my last chance, to get my money back. Note that even if apple doesn�t go below $100, my $100 strike puts will gain in value if Apple drops to $109 post-earnings, so I might make a bit more there.

I want to thank everyone on /r/wsb for the continued and unending support. You have truly helped me get to where I am and I just want to say that no matter what happens, I�ll have no regret. You have entertained me during dark times in my life and quite possibly saved me. You guys never failed to make me laugh with your puns, memes and other and for this, I especially thank you � especially those who were generous enough to become my patrons or get me reddit gold.

One final thing. I don�t know if God exists. I won�t pretend that I suddenly believe in Him (or Her), like so many do in their time of need, but if you do exist God: please, please, please, please, please help me. I have never been lucky in this life and you have thrown many obstacles in my way, but if you help me here, everything is forgiven. It�s not that hard to break that $100 floor and once that happens, it�s game over � I�m rich. I know the earnings are going to suck. Don�t let big banks screw me once again.

If I do win, here is my promise:

1) I WILL repay all my debts, in full, immediately.

2) I WILL place half the money in a long-term fund that pays 4-5% per year. Banks, Telecoms, Pipelines, etc.

3) I WILL use a quarter of the money to buy a house and plenty of nice things.

4) I WILL use the last quarter of the money to travel the world, enjoying life.

5) I SWEAR ON EVERYTHING THAT I AM AND EVERYTHING THAT I HAVE THAT I WILL NEVER, EVER, EVER TRADE AGAIN.

In therapy, I was told that the most important thing was being honest with yourself. I�ll be honest with yourself and also myself: I�m not a good trader. I�m so tired of losing. I wasted two years of my life on this bullshit. No matter what happens, this is my last trade. After that, I am moving on and never, ever even thinking about finance or stock ever again. Two years of perpetually losing money are enough for me. But recently, I have been on a hot streak (100% success recently) and I just need the streak to last one. last. time.

Verdict: Massively short AAPL through earnings.

AS LONG AS APPLE DOESN�T GO UP, I DO NOT LOSE MONEY. GLTA.

QUICK UPDATE 1/27/2017 2:56PM

UPDATE Original post forgot to mention all WSBers will receive a free can of maple syrup OR a pack of maple sugar if I make at least $1,000,000 from this trade. Yes, this is for real. I called in for a quote and it will cost me $65k-$85k to ship it all at a discount, assuming all US and CAN addresses. Other shippers might be cheaper, I guess I'll see. DISCLAIMER: Limited to the first 10,000 posters, reserved to people who made at least one post/comment on /r/wallstreetbets before today. Mods get priority. Check my Youtube video on it for details.

Quick update for those who asked (drat you, reddit formatting system! I'd short you if you had earnings coming!) http://i.imgur.com/d0K2w9p.png

I am up by quite a bit, but commissiosn rekt me. Still, AAPL has begun its long decent into irrelevance. Should be red every day now for a little while, as is the case every earnings season in the last 5 years.

Also, at the time of posting this, this post had a score of 666. Coincidence?

For those who asked, yes, I am serious. Some people have written to me trying to change my mind. I want to say that I appreciate your concerns, advice and help, but that I am 100% dead serious about this. I have spent a lot of time considering and analysing this and this is what I want to do; I have made my mind and that nothing you can say or do will change it. Please do not write me telling me to stop this, I am stressed enough as it is, believe me. I am holding this position through earnings and I am not going to change my mind. I am "pretty drat sure" AAPL will crash massively following earnings and this is what I want to do. Thank you.

Also, MODS=GODS.

Update #2: Quick explanation to visitors of /r/all who don't get what's going on.

Okay, so you have a stock. A stock is a portion of a company. If company ABC emitted 100 shares and you had 10 shares, then you own 10% of ABC.

You can buy and sell shares. If you buy a share and it goes up - because other people are willing to pay more for it - then you make money. If it goes down, you lose money. A stock will go up depending on what people are ready to pay for it, but generally speaking, a good earnings report will kick the stock up. Netflix reported good earnings, for instance, and the stock jumped 8%

In addition to stocks, you can also trade what is called options. An option gives you the option to buy or sell the stock at a later times. There are two popular kind of options: calls and puts.

A call gives you the RIGHT, but not the obligation, to buy the stock at a fixed priced in the future with an expiration date. The option stops existing after the expiration date (we say it is "settled"). For instance, Apple is currently at $122. A call with a strike of $120, expiring on February 17th, 2017, would give you the right to buy AAPL (Apple's stock ticker) for the price of $120 at any time until February 17th, 2017.

If AAPL crashes to $115 tomorrow, you are not going to "exercise" your call. Why would you buy it for $120 with your call when you can buy it on the open market for less? Similarly, if Apple goes up to $130, then you would be able to buy it for $120 using your call and resell it for $130 immediately.

A put is the opposite of a call: it gives you the right to SELL at a fixed price. For instance, I bought $120 puts expiring on February 17th, 2017. This gives me the right the sell Apple for $120 at any time until February 17th, 2017. Apple currently trades for $122, so I am not going to exercise my puts and sell them for $120 since I can sell them on the general market for $120.

To be noted: you do not need to hold the shares to buy a put. If I exercised my puts today, I would end up with a negative amount of shares of AAPL, which is called shorting (another topic).

I sold calls, meaning that I gave someone the right to BUY Apple shares from me at the price of $120. Once again, I do not need to own shares to sell a call: if the guy exercised the call, I would end up with a negative amount of shares.

Since AAPL is currently at $122, why doesn't he exercise his call right now, i.e. buying it from me at $120 and selling immediately at $122? Because it can be shown (proved mathematically) that it is never optimals to exercice a call nor a put before the expiration date, that is, February 17th, 2017.

Now, why would I give someone the right to do that? Because I get paid for it. An option has a premium, which is the price you pay for that "right" (but, again, not the obligation). In other words, if AAPL was to close under $120 on February 17th, 2017, I would get to keep the entire premium the guy paid me and he would have nothing.

So my trade is as follows: I sold a mass amount of $120 calls. If AAPL crashes, those calls will not be exerciced and I get to keep the entire premium.

Using that premium, I bought a mass amount of puts (remember, right to sell). This means that if AAPL crashes, I get to exercice my puts and earn a lot of money. For instance, I have $120 puts that I paid $1.68 for; if AAPL dips to $110, I would earn $10-$1.68=$8.32.

Because I sold calls and used the money to buy puts, this trade has not cost me a penny. If AAPL crashes, I could earn a lot. For instance, if it crashes at $80, I would earn $120-$80=$40 on my $120 strike put. Each contract is for 100 stocks and I have 150 contract, so I would earn 15010040=$600,000. In other words, if I am right and AAPL crashes after announcing its earnings, on January 31th at 4:00PM, I stand to make a massive amount of money.

I also bought puts with a strike of $115, $110, $105 and $100. So if Apple dipped to $95, all my puts would pay me ($120-$95, $115-$95, etc.). The more Apple crashes, the more I make. Ideally, AAPL would go to $0 and I would earn the maximum amount ($120-$0, $115-$0, etc.)

Of course, you aren't forced to exercise your puts and you can resell them at any time. The price of the put will go up as AAPL goes down. So if AAPL opens at $99, the $100 put would be worth $1-$5. The exact value depends on complicated mathematics and, overall, how much people are ready to pay for it.

And that's it. Hope it cleared things up a bit! See, options aren't hard =)

# ? Jan 28, 2017 04:22

curufinor: Apr 4, 2016; by Smythe

Sampling of the replies:

rando on reddit posted:

This post should be tagged: "Suicide Attempt".
Good luck, our beloved Canadian.

rando on reddit posted:

Rigged might be too simple. Here's a breakdown of the competitors...
Them: People way smarter than you with near infinite resources who have staff full of PhD's working in shifts around the clock 7 days a week, 365.25 days a year. They also have computers with direct fiber optic lines to the exchanges and news servers that can parse and generate a trade from press releases within milliseconds. They are also members of the exchange, and can execute trades for a minuscule fraction of the price you pay.
You: A hunch. Maybe some luck. Liquidity, I guess.

rando on reddit posted:

You're the one who chose to blow over 2 million on stupid bullshit instead of safely investing it and living as a millionaire your entire life. Life didn't do poo poo to you but maybe give you brain damage.

"rando on reddit posted:

1 - You have a gambling problem
2 - This is amazing
3 - Good luck

# ? Jan 28, 2017 04:29

Accretionist: Nov 7, 2012; I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES

Holy poo poo

quote:

�hit it big,� aka be someone.

Dude's loving retarded

# ? Jan 28, 2017 04:38

monster on a stick: Apr 29, 2013

quote:

If I liquidated all my positions and stopped trading today, yes, I could probably repay my debts. And then what? I would have almost nothing left, nothing at all. My $2.5M would be gone forever and perhaps most of my mental sanity along with it.
...
I want to thank everyone on /r/wsb for the continued and unending support. You have truly helped me get to where I am.

Get to where I am = lost 2.5 million. He should have just burned the money, at least it would have heated his apartment.

Obligatory link to the thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/5qhzcy/well_this_is_it_going_allin_my_last_stand_my/

EDIT: choice response:

quote:

If all else fails (which it probably will) , I think you have a bright future being a writer at Motley Fool.

holy poo poo

EDIT: another thread on this guy

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/5qk7l9/this_is_a_public_service_message_i_would_like_to/

quote:

He's "crowdfunding" for his YOLO in the Tim Hortons men's room

monster on a stick fucked around with this message at 05:02 on Jan 28, 2017

# ? Jan 28, 2017 04:50

Accretionist: Nov 7, 2012; I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES

Assuming he doesn't empty his brains into the bathtub

# ? Jan 28, 2017 04:56

curufinor: Apr 4, 2016; by Smythe

Basically BWM the subreddit, yah

# ? Jan 28, 2017 04:57

Thesaurus: Oct 3, 2004

Can someone parse his insane plan for me? All I got was that a guy who has a proven terrible track record , having lost millions, now is hyper confidant that he has a foolproof plan to get rich that "can't lose."

# ? Jan 28, 2017 05:10

curufinor: Apr 4, 2016; by Smythe

He has this complicated hedged way of doing a covered short on Apple, which he spent an incredible amount of money on, explicitly so there's a huge upside possible and he "gets his money back"

Apparently there's a meme in the subreddit of doing the reverse of whatever he does

Edit: holy poo poo some of that poo poo is naked holy poo poo

curufinor fucked around with this message at 05:15 on Jan 28, 2017

# ? Jan 28, 2017 05:13

Accretionist: Nov 7, 2012; I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES

OP thinks he can't lose.

This guy, though:

quote:

Maximum loss on this trade is about $233,000 at a price of $128 per share on Feb 17.

Breakeven price on Feb 1 is about $121 per share, or $120.23 on Feb 17.

http://imgur.com/a/jnHaA

# ? Jan 28, 2017 05:18

Hydronium: Oct 23, 2008

quote:

. I have never been lucky in this life and you have thrown many obstacles in my way, but if you help me here, everything is forgiven.

This stood out to me. I assume he's not counting the time when his rich uncle died and literally left him a fortune?

# ? Jan 28, 2017 05:55

VideoTapir: Oct 18, 2005; He'll tire eventually.

Well, that's canceled out by being cursed with terminal stupidity and a gambling addiction.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 05:57

BonerGhost: Mar 9, 2007

Accretionist posted:

OP thinks he can't lose.

This guy, though:

So is that the most he could lose if Apple stock actually goes up? What about a margin call?

# ? Jan 28, 2017 06:08

Volmarias: Dec 31, 2002; EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...

If there's a margin call, he loses everything. He mentioned using his credit card to secure part of this, so he potentially loses more than everything. Basically, at the point that Apple stock rises high enough that his liabilities outweigh his risks, the broker will forcibly sell all of his positions so that he doesn't lose so much money that he owes them money that he doesn't have, which would leave THEM holding the bag.

He's hoping that A) Apple actually does go down from their current price and B) it goes down enough that the costs for his options are more than covered. The very amazing thing is that if Apple doesn't move from the position he started at he still loses money, because options have inherent value (which decrease as you get closer to their expiration date). Either I'm seriously misunderstanding this, or he's deluding himself on the "stock doesn't move at all means I lose nothing" bit.

I've done a little options trading before (which really is basically gambling), but a naked short (offering to sell stock that he doesn't actually have) is some next level poo poo.

Volmarias fucked around with this message at 06:35 on Jan 28, 2017

# ? Jan 28, 2017 06:31

Pureauthor: Jul 8, 2010; ASK ME ABOUT KISSING A GHOST

2.5 million in inheritance and he managed to piss it aallllll away without even getting some crazy hedonism out of it.

Ffs

# ? Jan 28, 2017 07:09

ohgodwhat: Aug 6, 2005

He loses 50k from where he's at now if it doesn't move.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 07:17

olylifter: Sep 13, 2007; I'm bad with money and you have an avatar!

Pureauthor posted:

2.5 million in inheritance and he managed to piss it aallllll away without even getting some crazy hedonism out of it.

Ffs

He did it in what, like a three year period? You know how much goddamned fun you could have pissing 2.5 million away over three years partying, particularly in La belle province?

it's like Brewster's Millions only he didn't do anything cool and there's no second payoff to build towards.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 07:18

potatoducks: Jan 26, 2006

Can someone simplify the math for people who only invest in index funds? All I want to know is what I have to root for and when in order for this guy to lose all his money.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 07:24

monster on a stick: Apr 29, 2013

potatoducks posted:

Can someone simplify the math for people who only invest in index funds? All I want to know is what I have to root for and when in order for this guy to lose all his money.

Hope AAPL goes up.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 07:25

potatoducks: Jan 26, 2006

Starting from right now? His posts mention Feb 17 a lot. Is that when he has to buy back his stocks to cover the imaginary ones he already sold?

# ? Jan 28, 2017 07:29

BonerGhost: Mar 9, 2007

Volmarias posted:

If there's a margin call, he loses everything. He mentioned using his credit card to secure part of this, so he potentially loses more than everything. Basically, at the point that Apple stock rises high enough that his liabilities outweigh his risks, the broker will forcibly sell all of his positions so that he doesn't lose so much money that he owes them money that he doesn't have, which would leave THEM holding the bag.

He's hoping that A) Apple actually does go down from their current price and B) it goes down enough that the costs for his options are more than covered. The very amazing thing is that if Apple doesn't move from the position he started at he still loses money, because options have inherent value (which decrease as you get closer to their expiration date). Either I'm seriously misunderstanding this, or he's deluding himself on the "stock doesn't move at all means I lose nothing" bit.

I've done a little options trading before (which really is basically gambling), but a naked short (offering to sell stock that he doesn't actually have) is some next level poo poo.

This is about what I thought, I wanted to confirm that he is working under the gambling addict definition of impossible and not the real life version I'm used to. Thanks for the explanation.

What's Feb 17, the option expiration? Is that a real deadline or just some arbitrary one he's set for himself?

# ? Jan 28, 2017 07:53

VideoTapir: Oct 18, 2005; He'll tire eventually.

Pureauthor posted:

2.5 million in inheritance and he managed to piss it aallllll away without even getting some crazy hedonism out of it.

Ffs

Gambling is hedonic.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 07:56

Magic Underwear: May 14, 2003; Young Orc

There is some talk in the thread that this guy has a history of stories like this. I'm inclined to believe they're all bullshit.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 08:04

big shtick energy: May 27, 2004

Magic Underwear posted:

There is some talk in the thread that this guy has a history of stories like this. I'm inclined to believe they're all bullshit.

Daytrading fanfiction is a genre that can only grow! Plus you could always do a Chuck Tingle book like "Pounded by a margin call on my naked puts."

# ? Jan 28, 2017 08:25

Weatherman: Jul 30, 2003; WARBLEKLONK

Hydronium posted:

This stood out to me. I assume he's not counting the time when his rich uncle died and literally left him a fortune?

Same here. I got angry when I read that line. "More money than most people will see in their lifetimes (dude's uncle excluded, of course) dropped into your lap and you say you've never been lucky? Get hosed."

I hate the finance industry, but in this case I'm rooting for some low-level clerk to do the one trade that kicks off a spike in Apple's earnings and wipes this guy out completely. Ugh, now I feel dirty. What a horrible loving post this has been.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 08:40

SquirrelFace: Dec 17, 2009

Hydronium posted:

This stood out to me. I assume he's not counting the time when his rich uncle died and literally left him a fortune?

This and the part when he asks god for help and then outlines how he promises to buy himself a house and nice things and travel when he's rich again.

What god is he praying to that rewards excess and consumerism?

# ? Jan 28, 2017 14:13

Sic Semper Goon: Mar 1, 2015; Eu tu?; Switchblade Switcharoo

SquirrelFace posted:

What god is he praying to that rewards excess and consumerism?

The American version of Christianity?

# ? Jan 28, 2017 14:17

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# ? May 16, 2024 09:53

Volmarias: Dec 31, 2002; EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...

NancyPants posted:

This is about what I thought, I wanted to confirm that he is working under the gambling addict definition of impossible and not the real life version I'm used to. Thanks for the explanation.

What's Feb 17, the option expiration? Is that a real deadline or just some arbitrary one he's set for himself?

That's when the options expire. After that day, they cannot be used. So, whoever has the options on that day will execute them (assuming they're not worthless options to buy above market price or sell below it), and they'll be worth the difference between the option price and the stock price (or zero if that's negative).

It is very likely that they'll be traded away before that day.

# ? Jan 28, 2017 14:39

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