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Rated PG-34
Jul 1, 2004




Yeah. I'm glad all that can't happen in our sane and well run society

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Mustached Demon
Nov 12, 2016

Invest in lead right now to raise funds.

syscall girl
Nov 7, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
Fun Shoe

Mustached Demon posted:

Invest in lead right now to raise funds.

I'm selling short on clean air and water futures :razz:

VectorSigma
Jan 20, 2004

Transform
and
Freak Out



Haha, worse yet, what if everyone kept driving cars and burning coal and gas for energy!

Rated PG-34
Jul 1, 2004




VectorSigma posted:

Haha, worse yet, what if everyone kept driving cars and burning coal and gas for energy!

Good luck with that...

Wanderer
Nov 5, 2006

our every move is the new tradition

Minge Binge posted:

who's gonna take the courageous step and start a company that helps victims of climate disaster. let's start pitching this to investor. lots of money to be made. lots of lives to be saved.

You'd probably want to focus on the production of goods and services that help people in the event of calamity: bottled water, non-perishable food, durable blankets/clothing (wool is best; still warm even if it's wet), waterproof matches, road flares, etc. Really focus on that doomsday prepper dollar.

Pick a couple of items you think you can make affordably, or maybe something along the lines of a pre-packed "bug-out bag," and diversify as your profit margin allows. If you source locally/domestically and employ Americans, you could even do some good along the way.

Evil_Greven
Feb 20, 2007

Whadda I got to,
whadda I got to do
to wake ya up?

To shake ya up,
to break the structure up!?
Just in case you were wondering how things are doing lately...

Arctic sea ice extent has recovered to the point where it dropped out of lowest-ever. Briefly; a storm had spread it out quite a bit. It reclaimed lowest-ever for awhile, but now is approaching not-quite-lowest-ever. Area is still low. Worse is volume, which is averaging about a little over a meter thick.

To give you an idea about how hosed up that is, just look at the title of this article:
The new mid-winter Arctic shipping: tanker makes it through Bering Strait to pick up oil in Yamal

Antarctic sea ice extent, while less concerning, is still remarkably low; it's not yet the usual time to reach minimum extent and it's already in the top 10 for lowest extent. Meanwhile, several ice shelves are cracking:
Larson C
Brunt
Amery & Shackleton (these appear to change more regularly, see Shackleton circa 2003)

:tif:

SSJ_naruto_2003
Oct 12, 2012



A loving tanker was able to traverse the Bering strait to pick up oil in loving February. Wow

Setset
Apr 14, 2012
Grimey Drawer
so the arctic ice is hosed, yep. will this have any effect on the antarctic ice?

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
No, they are very different and not closely related. It just happens that this year they are both at record lows.

Placid Marmot
Apr 28, 2013
Strictly, if ice is lost from Greenland, the sea level in Antarctica will rise, ice shelves will break off more quickly and continental ice loss will accelerate, but the specific type of ice that we are discussing every week in the Arctic is sea ice, which does not directly infulence sea level.

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

But it does influence the rate at which Earth absorbs heat from the sun.

TildeATH
Oct 21, 2010

by Lowtax

Arglebargle III posted:

But it does influence the rate at which Earth absorbs heat from the sun.

And a warmer ocean will expand, which will increase pressure on land ice.

Extreme0
Feb 28, 2013

I dance to the sweet tune of your failure so I'm never gonna stop fucking with you.

Continue to get confused and frustrated with me as I dance to your anger.

As I expect nothing more from ya you stupid runt!


Can't believe waterworld was in fact a prophecy come true.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
I'm ready to start drinking my own piss. Embrace death.

BEAR GRYLLZ
Jul 30, 2006

I have strong erections for Israel.
Strong, pathetic erections.

Ready to start? Way ahead of you friend.

smoke sumthin bitch
Dec 14, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration got caught falsifying data ahead of COP 21 in order to push for more radical global austerity measures.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4192182/World-leaders-duped-manipulated-global-warming-data.html

cowofwar
Jul 30, 2002

by Athanatos

smoke sumthin bitch posted:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration got caught falsifying data ahead of COP 21 in order to push for more radical global austerity measures.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4192182/World-leaders-duped-manipulated-global-warming-data.html

quote:

The Daily Mail is a British daily middle-market[2][3] tabloid newspaper owned by the Daily Mail and General Trust[4] and published in London.

The Daily Mail has been accused of racism, and printing sensationalist and inaccurate scare stories of science and medical research

Fangz
Jul 5, 2007

Oh I see! This must be the Bad Opinion Zone!
https://arstechnica.co.uk/science/2017/02/article-names-whistleblower-who-told-congress-that-noaa-manipulated-data/



quote:

Bates expected the same approach from his surface temperature counterparts, but Peterson explained that their work with weather station data was not nearly so high-stakes—problems could easily be fixed on the fly. The engineering-style process NOAA was using for endlessly double-checking the software for all dataset updates could drag on for quite a long time—years, in fact—and Bates opposed any attempt to speed this up. Peterson and other scientists were naturally anxious to incorporate changes they knew were scientifically important.

Bates alleges that the Karl paper was “rushed” for political reasons, but Peterson said the reality was that NOAA was well behind the times, waiting to include known improvements like additional recording stations in the rapidly warming Arctic. “I had been arguing for years that we were putting out data that did not reflect our understanding of how the temperature was actually warming—[for] literally years we slowed down to try to account for some of these processing things that we had to do,” Peterson said. (At the time of the Karl paper, NOAA’s dataset showed less warming in recent years than other datasets, like NASA’s.)

...

Hausfather also points out a glaring error in the Mail on Sunday article that illustrates its author’s lack of knowledge. The article includes a graph of both the NOAA and UK Met Office records. The NOAA data appears to be roughly 0.1°C warmer than the UK Met Office data across the entire time span—supposedly evidence of “flawed NOAA data showing higher temperatures.” Apart from the fact that a constant offset would have no impact on temperature trends, the offset is simply a mistake. The numbers in the two datasets are calculated relative to different baselines—the 1901-2000 average for NOAA, and the 1961-1990 average for the Met Office. Once you put them on a common baseline, the differences largely disappear.

The Mail on Sunday updated the caption to note that the datasets “are offset in temperature by 0.12°C due to different analysis techniques,” but the graph remains unchanged. And it's not clear how many Mail readers will understand the importance of this offset

More lies to push the murderous anti-science agenda. Cool.

Fangz fucked around with this message at 03:52 on Feb 7, 2017

cowofwar
Jul 30, 2002

by Athanatos
Some responses to David Rose's piece from people involved.

http://rabett.blogspot.ca/2017/02/the-speed-of-entropy.html

http://icarus-maynooth.blogspot.ca/2017/02/on-mail-on-sunday-article-on-karl-et-al.html?m=1

http://variable-variability.blogspot.ca/2017/02/david-roses-alternative-reality-noaa-Karl.html

http://greatwhitecon.info/2017/02/climategate-2-falls-at-the-first-hurdle/

Goa Tse-tung
Feb 11, 2008

;3

Yams Fan
thank you, smoke sumthin bitch, for alerting us to the evils of Rep. Smith (R-Texas)

Solaris 2.0
May 14, 2008

So long Larsen C, you had a nice run..

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...WT.nav=top-news

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

It's going to be hard to explain to people that a long essay on software version control and organizational politics that they will never read is not the smoking gun that the Daily Mail has made it out to be.

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

The daily mail's graph in the article sort of undermines their point, but nobody can probably read graphs anyways.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
woops wrong thread

Nucleic Acids
Apr 10, 2007
Probation
Can't post for 17 hours!

smoke sumthin bitch posted:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration got caught falsifying data ahead of COP 21 in order to push for more radical global austerity measures.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4192182/World-leaders-duped-manipulated-global-warming-data.html

So, how far into this did you look?

Nucleic Acids fucked around with this message at 04:15 on Feb 9, 2017

Wanderer
Nov 5, 2006

our every move is the new tradition
Sort of good news:

http://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2017/02/08/gas-hydrate-breakdown-unlikely-cause-massive-greenhouse-gas-release/

A new study seems to indicate that the methane clathrates "gun" won't fire after all. It still isn't good, but it's not as apocalyptic as was feared. Maybe.

Fangz
Jul 5, 2007

Oh I see! This must be the Bad Opinion Zone!

Wanderer posted:

Sort of good news:

http://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2017/02/08/gas-hydrate-breakdown-unlikely-cause-massive-greenhouse-gas-release/

A new study seems to indicate that the methane clathrates "gun" won't fire after all. It still isn't good, but it's not as apocalyptic as was feared. Maybe.

This literature review just says there is little evidence there's large scale release right now.

Nice piece of fish
Jan 29, 2008

Ultra Carp

Wanderer posted:

Sort of good news:

http://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2017/02/08/gas-hydrate-breakdown-unlikely-cause-massive-greenhouse-gas-release/

A new study seems to indicate that the methane clathrates "gun" won't fire after all. It still isn't good, but it's not as apocalyptic as was feared. Maybe.

Well, I think the main author of that study, Carolyn Ruppel, has been somewhat vocal against the methane clathrate gun hypothesis for some time now, and to be totally fair the methane clathrate gun idea is one of the least certain predictions about future global warming catastrophes.

Of course, there's firstly the question of the totality of her critique, as she is mostly focused on undersea methane release and not so much the whole of Siberia rotting thing. Secondly there's a question of how accurate we can trust this study to be, after all since the future is unpredictable, which outcome do we want to take a chance on? Do we want to risk methane clathrates not being a thing when we describe future scenarios? How about future worst-case scenarios?

All in all it would be super if the methane bomb isn't a thing that's likely to happen. It buys us some very valuable time, time we can use to actually slow this poo poo down and maybe be looking at a few-degrees warmer future as opposed to a double-digits warmer future. Which may be difference of a few billion lives.

But at this point and with the climate denialist pieces of poo poo at the top of the US political system and the state of the world and international cooperation, I'd much rather we assume the absolute worst and work towards prevention with that in mind rather than providing any excuses for postponing meaningful reform another decade or two. Because the rest of our global problem is for damned sure not going away.

BattleMoose
Jun 16, 2010
We know that the Earth has going through rapid climate shifts in the past, without human interference. Check out Dansgaarg Oeschger events if you are interested. Basically, there are natural mechanisms which can rapidly accelerate a temperature increase. Whether methane calthrates is one of them or its something else, it feels rather moot. :(

Doorknob Slobber
Sep 10, 2006

by Fluffdaddy

Wanderer posted:

Sort of good news:

http://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2017/02/08/gas-hydrate-breakdown-unlikely-cause-massive-greenhouse-gas-release/

A new study seems to indicate that the methane clathrates "gun" won't fire after all. It still isn't good, but it's not as apocalyptic as was feared. Maybe.

is this scary article (http://www.nationofchange.org/2017/02/10/rapidly-warming-arctic-loose-methane-climate-bomb-mean-extinction-nine-years/) this methane gun thing? SO much scary, bring back ELF and other eco-terrorist groups please.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
I have serious doubts the ELF could operate in the modern era. All it takes is one dumb gently caress bringing a cellphone along while you bomb a coal terminal / pulp mill / oil refinery and suddenly you're all going to prison. The logistics are too difficult in our era of Orwellian surveillance.

Besides, the real troubles are in developing nations. Good luck gathering a group of expendibles to go pull off a mass-murder of illegal loggers in Brazil!

At this point it's too late anyways and if them clathrates gonna blow, no amount of eco-terrorism is going to stop things. Just eat your soma and pretend nothing is wrong, citizen. :colbert:

Gareth Gobulcoque
Jan 10, 2008



Doorknob Slobber posted:

is this scary article (http://www.nationofchange.org/2017/02/10/rapidly-warming-arctic-loose-methane-climate-bomb-mean-extinction-nine-years/) this methane gun thing? SO much scary, bring back ELF and other eco-terrorist groups please.

Methane Clathrates were strictly crazy territory back when I was in school. They were just thought to be too stable to pose a serious risk for the methane gun to be an actual thing in our lifetimes. However, from what I understand it basically all comes down to how long does it take for a seasonally ice free Arctic to become a permantly ice free Arctic. Some people think centuries, some think less than a decade. If it's more on the scale of decade warm Atlantic water could flood the Artic in sufficient volume to trigger climate apocalypse. Even a seasonally ice free Arctic represents an extreme and real threat to sea shelf methane clathrates, and that isn't exactly apocalypse but sets in motion feedback loops that fundamentally change human organizational structure. And it is batshit loving insane that this is a real possibility.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July
Welp, you can put the final nail in the coffin of the nuclear renaissance now.

double nine
Aug 8, 2013

Can someone point me in the direction of a good "clathrates apocalypse for dummies" article so I have a better idea of what's going on?

Nice piece of fish
Jan 29, 2008

Ultra Carp

double nine posted:

Can someone point me in the direction of a good "clathrates apocalypse for dummies" article so I have a better idea of what's going on?

Well, wikipedia is an okay start.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

This is a good one that's often cited:

http://pm22100.net/docs/pdf/enercoop/energie/gaz/130316_Methane_Hydrates_and_Contemporary_Climate_Change.pdf

And skepticalscience is interesting, if possibly alarmist? I don't know, but I do use their references from time to time.

https://skepticalscience.com/Wakening_the_Kraken.html

The tl;dr on it as far as I can tell is that with a reasonable amount of warming over the next few centuries, it might not happen. It most likely will not happen in our lifetimes. A big however is that we really don't know enough to reasonably conclude that this won't happen, and won't happen soon. We know that the Arctic deposits are the biggest danger and the most likely to cause problems, but there are good indications that there are natural processes that will slow down or mitigate the impact. On land, we have a lot less methane deposits so they play a lesser role. So, not knowing how runaway warming effects will impact this picture, it's a cool "possibly, we should probably do something to prevent this".

Nice piece of fish fucked around with this message at 15:30 on Feb 13, 2017

BattleMoose
Jun 16, 2010

double nine posted:

Can someone point me in the direction of a good "clathrates apocalypse for dummies" article so I have a better idea of what's going on?

The wiki article is actually pretty good.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005


My favorite quote from the article

quote:

Stone & Webster had built the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s campus and many of the country’s nuclear plants from the 1950s to the 1970s, but it was a shell of its old self when Bernhard bought it. Still, the name gave Shaw new credibility in the nuclear field, which it capitalized on to win all of Westinghouse’s contracts. “They weren’t necessarily qualified, but they had the heart and the go-get-them to take it on,’’ says Jeffrey Kellerman, a retired construction project controller who worked for Shaw at its nuclear sites.


Herm, I can see no way that this will later be a problem.

Fangz
Jul 5, 2007

Oh I see! This must be the Bad Opinion Zone!
Have people checked out

https://www.skepticalscience.com/docs/Debunking_Handbook.pdf

Thoughts?

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BattleMoose
Jun 16, 2010
Only seen it now, wish I had known about it sooner. Seems to make sense to me.

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