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Saladman posted:So this year's Guri Dam crisis should start cropping up in the next month or so, right? Is there any news so far on what to expect there? English searches didn't turn up much, nor in my (lousy) Spanish. poo poo, I hadn't thought of that. You're probably right – I live in a privileged area when it comes to electricity and water cuts and we still only have at most two days of water per week. That's been going on for over a year now, even during the recent rain season, so the energy crisis should be popping up again any week now. The depressing thing is we've been living this way for over a year now and I still get neighbors asking me "Hey, you guys got water today/yesterday?". It's almost like clockwork, but people seem to prefer pretending it's random over assuming the fact they have to survive on one or two days per week of running water.
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Feb 11, 2017 23:28
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Labradoodle posted:poo poo, I hadn't thought of that. You're probably right – I live in a privileged area when it comes to electricity and water cuts and we still only have at most two days of water per week. That's been going on for over a year now, even during the recent rain season, so the energy crisis should be popping up again any week now. When you can't directly do anything about it anyway I can't blame them too much for maintaining that kind of denial.
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Feb 12, 2017 00:56
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All I could really find out is that it seems like it's 8 meters below its maximum (or "optimum", not sure) level—263 m vs 271. http://runrun.es/nacional/293248/represa-de-guri-comienza-el-ano-sin-llegar-al-nivel-maximo-de-271-metros.html I couldn't easily figure out what its end-of-rainy-season level was in 2015 or 2016, so I don't know if this is worse or better or what. I guess there is always the off-chance that the El Niño excuse was only partially bullshit. Saladman fucked around with this message at 12:02 on Feb 12, 2017 |
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Feb 12, 2017 11:59
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Yesterday was Sunday, which means that Maduro was on television hosting one of his shows, Domingos con Maduro. Maduro tried to break the world record for most ridiculous amount of things said seriously on a live television show. Here's a breakdown of some of the things that he said:
Saladman posted:All I could really find out is that it seems like it's 8 meters below its maximum (or "optimum", not sure) level—263 m vs 271. http://runrun.es/nacional/293248/represa-de-guri-comienza-el-ano-sin-llegar-al-nivel-maximo-de-271-metros.html The article says that this year's levels are higher than they were at this time in 2016, so that's a good start. The article also says that the government's so opaque that it's hard to know how much of the dam is actually operational, but "anonymous union sources" say that "several" of the plant's 20 generating units are out of service due to disrepair and other technical issues. That's par for the course for virtually every other piece of infrastructure in the country, which has all been neglected for so long. We see the same with PDVSA's production numbers, which have been steadily declining for years due to the same kinds of issues.
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Feb 13, 2017 16:19
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So I am back in Caracas after four weeks of fieldwork in and around Puerto Ayacucho. If there is still any interest, I can do an effortpost on our time there (plus our previous seasons...I have longitudinal data), or if any of you have any specific questions about life on the frontier I'll try to answer them.
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Feb 13, 2017 23:31
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https://twitter.com/AP/status/831267613246373888?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw interesting. i am sure trump won't do poo poo and is just looking for distraction to make people look away from flynn(and probably himself) being russian stoolies and probably traitors. but if he is actualy trying to crack down on money sources of cartels, that would probably be a good place to start.
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Feb 13, 2017 23:34
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Vlex posted:So I am back in Caracas after four weeks of fieldwork in and around Puerto Ayacucho. If there is still any interest, I can do an effortpost on our time there (plus our previous seasons...I have longitudinal data), or if any of you have any specific questions about life on the frontier I'll try to answer them.  I would be very interested in hearing about your experiences.
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Feb 14, 2017 00:45
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Vlex posted:So I am back in Caracas after four weeks of fieldwork in and around Puerto Ayacucho. If there is still any interest, I can do an effortpost on our time there (plus our previous seasons...I have longitudinal data), or if any of you have any specific questions about life on the frontier I'll try to answer them. That's exactly what you would say if you had been kidnapped by anti-PSUV terrorists.  Glad it went well.
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Feb 14, 2017 00:47
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/AP/status/831267613246373888?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw So that's why he was trending. Now news seem to say he has been put on the blacklist? Maduro gonna get some rhetorical mileage out of this, that's for sure. https://twitter.com/RafaTihanyi/status/831300427656335360
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Feb 14, 2017 01:35
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Vlex posted:So I am back in Caracas after four weeks of fieldwork in and around Puerto Ayacucho. If there is still any interest, I can do an effortpost on our time there (plus our previous seasons...I have longitudinal data), or if any of you have any specific questions about life on the frontier I'll try to answer them. God yes make it happen.
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Feb 14, 2017 01:41
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This poster loves police brutality, but only when its against minorities!
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They've got around 2k people to sanction to really make a dent in these guys pockets. If they legitimately go ahead and sanction not just the higher ups but everyone else involved with these scumbags that would redeem Trump for me.
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Feb 14, 2017 01:44
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Vlex posted:So I am back in Caracas after four weeks of fieldwork in and around Puerto Ayacucho. If there is still any interest, I can do an effortpost on our time there (plus our previous seasons...I have longitudinal data), or if any of you have any specific questions about life on the frontier I'll try to answer them. Hell yeah, I want to hear about your Puerto Ayacucho experiences. Also, I hope you get to enjoy Caracas a bit before going back to the field or returning home. If you need any recommendations for where to eat or how to get around, feel free to ask. On the Aissami front, the Miami Herald estimates his personal wealth to be around the $3 billion mark, which is freaking insane. I remember other publications (not reputable ones) estimating the Chavez's family wealth to be around the $2 billion mark, but I'm guessing Diosdado might put those numbers to shame. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 02:01 on Feb 14, 2017 |
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Feb 14, 2017 01:51
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The U.S. Department of the Treasury's press release on the sanctions against El Aissami is  Make sure you give it a read. It calls El Aissami "a prominent drug trafficker", accuses of him personally conducting drug trafficking operations, and connects him to the Los Zetas Cartel.
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Feb 14, 2017 02:02
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Chuck Boone posted:The U.S. Department of the Treasury's press release on the sanctions against El Aissami is Jesus, and this doesn't even mention his ties to Hezbollah.
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Feb 14, 2017 05:26
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We started our project in Amazonas in mid-2015, when the current hyperinflation and real widespread scarcity really began in a big way. From my point of view, working in a frontier area where a lot of trafficking and smuggling takes place regardless of economic conditions, I could definitely see a change over time in how the 'legitimate' and black markets adjusted to the circumstances. I'm phoneposting so adding photos is difficult, but will try to get some visuals for the next time I post from a computer. In broad terms, 2015 was challenging and it was very hard to feed a team of 10 excavators. Not that we lacked for money - we were likely some of the richest people in the state - but access to food was so constrained that it was the main logistical bottleneck. The next most challenging facet of conducting research there was a vehicle; we went through 7 trucks simply because of the lack of replacement parts. Not that we were going offroading in the back of beyond of the upper Orinoco. No, the relics we managed to get hold of broke down during the 20 minute drive from our house to our site, just south from the airport across the river Cataniapo. It was probably the most logistically challenging campaign I've ever conducted to date, yet that needn't have been. Bearing in mind the overall situation in Venezuela at the time, i.e. Maduro closing the border while we were there, late 2015 in Puerto Ayacucho pretty much consisted of the general availability of goods and services grinding to a halt alongside the rest of the country. Puerto Ayacucho is loving far away from everything. There were only three (now two) passenger flights a week, and in the month I was digging and surveying next to the airport, I rarely saw a large cargo plane land (though we did get menaced by helicopters once, owned by the GNB, natch). Everything comes by land through the Llanos, which means crossing via barge ferry at El Burro at the Meta-Orinoco confluence downstream. Between the ports and airports of origin of most goods, this means that basically 2/3 of the country and multiple major cities come before Puerto Ayacucho. In other words, ample opportunity for stuff to go missing, estar revendido, be appropriated, confiscated, or any other euphemism for theft you can think of. That being said, despite everything, people were going on business as usual. Part of this I believe is the lack of access to information. There are no newspapers, no independent radio, and sporadic internet in the region, adding up to a whole lot of people who are mostly in the dark about international and national developments. This time, trump's inauguration was just about the only 'outside' news that got discussed at all. I don't have any specific memories from 2015 of news being discussed, besides the closing of the frontier and how Colombians are all traitors to Bolivarian ideals, yadda yadda. The one thing that was abundant was fish of all kinds. Unlike downstream in the lower Orinoco where fish stocks are harder to catch in the wet season, Puerto Ayacucho has the benefit of fishing all year around, although the type of catch varies. This is because it lies next to the Raudales de Atures, or Atures Rapids, which mark the last point the river is navigable whether you come by dugout canoe, galleon, or speedboat. We now know from our research that the islands in the Rapids have been inhabited at least since AD 1000, and not just sporadically, but in extensive and permanent villages. The perennial access to fish and control of travel along this part of the river likely contributed to its status. Alexander von Humboldt also traversed the Rapids in his voyage across South America, if I'm not mistaken just at the start of the rainy season in April-June, by which time native populations had been decimated and the Rapids themselves were vacant. He was a bit of a personal hero anyway, but a single day of visiting the islands in the Rapids via dugout canoe at the height of the wet season (locally called winter) convinced me of how titanic his balls must have been. So all of this came as a shock, even to someone who is used to fieldwork in rural parts of South America. 2016 was way, way worse, however, and when my thumbs recover from this post I'll make another about our second year.
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Feb 14, 2017 15:29
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Thanks! Very interesting to get your perspective, as basically no news comes out of anywhere in the country except Caracas, Maracaibo, and wherever Nicolas Casey goes.
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Feb 14, 2017 17:14
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Saladman posted:Thanks! Very interesting to get your perspective, as basically no news comes out of anywhere in the country except Caracas, No problem, like I said, any specific questions about the dynamics on the frontier or life in general I will try to answer to the best of my ability.
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Feb 14, 2017 18:54
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Thanks for the post(s) Vlex. Anyway, the announcement that the VP has been sanctioned makes totally different reading from most of what's come out of the US administration lately... A sober, damning assessment with plenty of detail. That said I would also love seeing the worlds of Trump and Maduro collide. Maduro is one of very few people who has a claim that he can trump Trump when it comes to untrue and delusional statements.
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Feb 14, 2017 20:29
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So, finally the MUD has reacted to the whole Tareck El Aissami scandal...And, it's appalling. https://twitter.com/unidadvenezuela/status/831518361167212544 They're asking for an investigation. I don't know exactly what there is to investigate, simply ask the US State Department and I'm sure they'd be willing to relay their findings. The National Assembly has the power to remove the vice-president, that's one of the powers they do have, there's 0 reason to not use it right now.
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Feb 14, 2017 21:23
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fnox posted:So, finally the MUD has reacted to the whole Tareck El Aissami scandal...And, it's appalling. Whatever they did would probably be ignored at this point anyway, but they should at least try. Some people have this weird idea that they still have power as long as they don't force the other side to take it away from them, but obviously the power already doesn't exist if it can be taken away.
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Feb 14, 2017 21:41
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Sinteres posted:Whatever they did would probably be ignored at this point anyway, but they should at least try. Some people have this weird idea that they still have power as long as they don't force the other side to take it away from them, but obviously the power already doesn't exist if it can be taken away. I mean they should at the very least appear like if they're capable of doing something. Denouncing that the declaration that the vice-president is a loving drug dealer will affect trade, is not what I had in mind in terms of action.
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Feb 14, 2017 22:15
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fnox posted:I mean they should at the very least appear like if they're capable of doing something. Denouncing that the declaration that the vice-president is a loving drug dealer will affect trade, is not what I had in mind in terms of action. The other thing is that every theoretically constitutional action by the assembly that the PSUV ignores highlights the fact that Maduro is ruling by decree. Every time it wears away at the governments democratic veneer showing off its autocratic heart.
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Feb 14, 2017 22:50
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Thanks for that, Vlex! I'm looking forward to your 2016 update. It's really interesting to get the perspective of someone who doesn't live in Venezuela about the situation in the country. The lack of information you observed is interesting. It's depressing to think that some people are getting 100% of their information from whatever Maduro says. El Aissami reacted to the sanctions yesterday through his Twitter account (we beat the US on top-level government officials using Twitter to spout nonsense by a few years). Predictably, El Aissami claims that the allegations against him are lies fabricated to attack him because he is a brave revolutionary hero. Here is what he said: quote:In the face of imperialist infamy and aggression: 1) [My] MORALS ARE INTACT 2) [I now feel] MORE FIRM in my anti-imperialist CONVICTION 3) [I now feel] a stronger CHAVISTA consciousness!! Maduro reacted along similar lines, and he called the sanctions "illegal", and that he demanded that the top-ranking US official in Venezuela "publicly apologize" for what happened: quote:Yesterday, I was informed of the illegal, scandalous and infamous decision that was made against our colleague vice president Tareck El Aissami. Without a doubt, this is an aggression to which Venezuela will respond step by step with balance and steadfastness. The MUD issued a press release outlining its position in light of the sanctions. Like fnox said, they're asking for the attorney general to launch an "impartial and transparent" investigation into the matter, and the likelihood of that happening is exactly 0.00%. Here is the MUD's press release: quote:In light of the sanctions announced yesterday, Monday February 13 2017, by the United States Department of the Treasury against citizen Tareck El Aissami, the executive vice president of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, and against a businessperson who is alleged to be his representative over alleged connections to drug trafficking, the Mesa de la Unidad Democratica has fixed its position along the following terms: The National Assembly will likely launch some kind of investigation and it might even vote to censure the VP, but Maduro is likely to continue to apply the tried and tested measure of ignoring everything parliament does.
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Feb 15, 2017 16:06
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Given they should know there is zero chance of getting an apology, asking for a public one seems sort of silly. If you just 'ask for an apology' you can lie and say el imperio totally apologizes to great and strong Venezuela for having the temerity to note that its vice president is a druglord.
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Feb 15, 2017 17:13
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Chuck Boone posted:Thanks for that, Vlex! I'm looking forward to your 2016 update. It's really interesting to get the perspective of someone who doesn't live in Venezuela about the situation in the country. The lack of information you observed is interesting. It's depressing to think that some people are getting 100% of their information from whatever Maduro says. You're welcome, but I wouldn't quite go so far. When I wrote lack of information, I meant of any kind. When you're queuing for 6 hours a day for some margarine and crap Mexican harina (I don't even care that much for arepas, but Harina PAN is so much better than this poo poo) you won't be paying attention to Maduro or Cabello or the MUD or whoever. People do seem to hate Maduro though, they're just totally unable to do anything about it. AFAIK, Puerto Ayacucho hasn't seen any riots or looting at all despite being full of the "stockpiling" "multinational" business everyone here seems to despise. The businesses are Chinese and if anyone fucks with them you can bet your bottom Bolivar that they'll receive swift retribution
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Feb 15, 2017 20:13
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I can't imagine how lovely it must be to be an ethnic Chinese immigrant to Venezuela (or any other obvious "recent" immigrant, although I guess that basically just means Asian or Indian-looking). I'm kind of surprised that anyone with a second passport hasn't already left the country, but I guess there's a lot of throwing good money after bad / sunk cost fallacy type stuff going on.
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Feb 15, 2017 23:00
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Vlex posted:You're welcome, but I wouldn't quite go so far. When I wrote lack of information, I meant of any kind. When you're queuing for 6 hours a day for some margarine and crap Mexican harina (I don't even care that much for arepas, but Harina PAN is so much better than this poo poo) you won't be paying attention to Maduro or Cabello or the MUD or whoever. People do seem to hate Maduro though, they're just totally unable to do anything about it. AFAIK, Puerto Ayacucho hasn't seen any riots or looting at all despite being full of the "stockpiling" "multinational" business everyone here seems to despise. The businesses are Chinese and if anyone fucks with them you can bet your bottom Bolivar that they'll receive swift retribution Speaking of access to the media and the kinds of responses that the Maduro regime is likely to engage in the face of serious allegations: CNN has gone off the air in Venezuela as of an hour or so ago. This is in response to the report that aired on the network last week that the Venezuelan embassy in Iraq has sold passports and other documents to anyone who showed up with a stack of cash. The government alleges that the story constituted an attack against the "peace and calm" in the country, so... no more CNN. Feinne posted:Given they should know there is zero chance of getting an apology, asking for a public one seems sort of silly. If you just 'ask for an apology' you can lie and say el imperio totally apologizes to great and strong Venezuela for having the temerity to note that its vice president is a druglord.
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Feb 15, 2017 23:11
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I am extremely, extremely upset to have to say that Donald Trump and I agree on one thing. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/832016501657968640 With everything that's come out about Trump in terms of his inability to engage in learning and how his policy positions are set by the last person he happens to have spoken to, I am completely convinced that Trump has no idea about what's happening in Venezuela and that he's just repeating whatever Marco Rubio told him. EDIT: Tintori's face in that picture 
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Feb 16, 2017 01:20
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Chuck Boone posted:I am extremely, extremely upset to have to say that Donald Trump and I agree on one thing. He really can't help himself with the thumb up anytime anywhere, does he? And *Andrew Jackson* of all former prez to have as a background portrait. When Marco Rubio is the least objectionable guy in the room with you, it's not a good sign.
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Feb 16, 2017 03:08
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Saladman posted:I can't imagine how lovely it must be to be an ethnic Chinese immigrant to Venezuela (or any other obvious "recent" immigrant, although I guess that basically just means Asian or Indian-looking). I'm kind of surprised that anyone with a second passport hasn't already left the country, but I guess there's a lot of throwing good money after bad / sunk cost fallacy type stuff going on. So what are the Chinese businesses doing there in Venezuela? Are they importing agricultural food stuffs? Buying up wood or oil? The kind of Chinese immigrants that do go to South America and Africa tend to be pretty drat poor themselves back home. They know it's no fancy first world country but they got the pioneer spirit and grew up in the more desperate places of China. Unfortunately they tend to have pretty lovely political opinions and education so they have a hyper sense of FYGM and don't integrate well with local culture
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Feb 16, 2017 07:16
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caberham posted:So what are the Chinese businesses doing there in Venezuela? Are they importing agricultural food stuffs? Buying up wood or oil? Broad national caricatures aside... The Chinese in Puerto Ayacucho are entrepreneurs and business owners. There are still a couple of open Chinese restaurants and plenty of shops on the main avenues. I find your assessment of their socioeconomic circumstances hard to reconcile with the amount of investment that must have accompanied starting up all of these businesses (albeit in happier economic times). They do not integrate that well though, which is partly due to xenophobia on the part of Venezuelans and indigenous groups in the area. The latter, of course, is to be expected; indigenous people are justified in disliking or mistrusting outsiders, and the Chinese are just the latest in a long line of colonial fucksticks. Non-indigenous Venezuelans simply harbour a lot of the fear and resentment of outsiders and outside domination that you see anywhere that is impoverished and with poor education standards. I would hazard a guess that Chinese businesses also have a number of lifelines to keep themselves afloat, coupled with a measure of impunity, which amplifies this feeling. Chinese-owned shops are also the only ones I saw that allow people to walk in and pick up their own items off of the shelves (under surveillance of course). This is likely because they can act upon perpetrators as they wish. So it's an uneasy situation, at least in Puerto Ayacucho.
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Feb 16, 2017 13:57
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I'm worried now. Where the gently caress is El Hefe?
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Feb 16, 2017 13:58
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Poison Jam posted:I'm worried now. Considering his last login was on Christmas when he got probated for posting in this thread, I would hope and guess that it's more likely he just said 'gently caress this forum' than him getting murdered for a half-finished sandwich in his car on Christmas day. Saladman fucked around with this message at 15:06 on Feb 16, 2017 |
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Feb 16, 2017 15:04
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Poison Jam posted:I'm worried now. I noticed the same thing from the soccer forum. Hope he's OK.
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Feb 16, 2017 15:56
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Vlex, since you're there can you go find El Hefe for us please?
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Feb 16, 2017 18:23
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No can do bro, I'm under what amounts to house arrest at the IVIC until my flight out. I can't even change money here easily to book a taxi, nobody in our circle of contacts can afford dollars or euros. I'm resigned to sub-3rd world cafeteria food and ennui.
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Feb 16, 2017 19:33
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Chuck Boone posted:I am extremely, extremely upset to have to say that Donald Trump and I agree on one thing. He's not wrong, for once.
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Feb 16, 2017 20:24
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caberham posted:Unfortunately they tend to have pretty lovely political opinions and education so they have a hyper sense of FYGM and don't integrate well with local culture
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Feb 16, 2017 22:47
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According to a recent survey, a quarter of Venezuelans are now skipping breakfast: https://twitter.com/AKurmanaev/status/832642712599924736
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Feb 18, 2017 01:03
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Sorry for the double post, I quoted myself instead of editing my previous one. The study doesn't seem be public yet, but according to the same firm, a tenth of the population was down to eating twice a day or less at the beginning of 2016 (http://efectococuyo.com/principales/encovi-mas-de-3-millones-de-venezolanos-comen-dos-veces-al-dia-o-menos).
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Feb 18, 2017 01:12
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