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WeAreTheRomans
Feb 23, 2010

by R. Guyovich

ronya posted:

that trend looks weak enough to be driven by just one or two of the polls at the edges

I don't disagree with the thesis, I just think the graph doesn't show much

I can't remember the last time I saw a polling company include the R-squared value of a trendline. Political science = toilet science

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Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

Zephro posted:

I support whistleblowing etc but I've always wondered about the Katherine Gunn case. What kind of person voluntarily joins a spy agency then finds the idea of bugging the UN so morally unconscionable they can't keep quiet? It's like taking a job at a slaughterhouse even though you're vegetarian or something. I wonder what she thought GCHQ did.
There are animal rights activists who get jobs at slaughterhouses and vivisection labs to do just that, it's where most of the photos you see on the streetside animal rights booths come from. Maybe she was doing a similar thing.

I don't get what GCHQ's problem with whistleblowers is though, if they're not doing anything wrong, what are they afraid of? :v:

cosmically_cosmic
Dec 26, 2015

Zephro posted:

I support whistleblowing etc but I've always wondered about the Katherine Gunn case. What kind of person voluntarily joins a spy agency then finds the idea of bugging the UN so morally unconscionable they can't keep quiet? It's like taking a job at a slaughterhouse even though you're vegetarian or something. I wonder what she thought GCHQ did.

She probably watched a bunch of spy movies and believed that GCHQ was a heroic entity dedicated to protecting freedom and democracy.

Like in the awful remake of A Very British Coup, it was called Secret State I think.

Taear
Nov 26, 2004

Ask me about the shitty opinions I have about Paradox games!
A friend of mine who is a Labour member and I'd consider pretty politically tuned in didn't know there was a by-election in Stoke at all. He knew who Nuttall was but didn't know he was running.

All these polls and all this stuff about Corbyn people post I'd love to actually know how many people know anything about it. Why don't these polls ask a few policy questions or other stuff to see if anything that's appearing in the news is sticking? Maybe ask them what Traingate is.

As people keep saying in the thread it does feel like anything that happens outside of a GE just doesn't loving matter at all. At least when it comes to the Tories/Labour.

Posted not too long ago was a study that showed people vote Tory/Labour because they always have and Libdem/SNP/Green were more of a concious choice. I keep thinking of that study but I can't remember who posted it!

Fangz
Jul 5, 2007

Oh I see! This must be the Bad Opinion Zone!
I don't condone fitting linear trends through polling data like that but.


WeAreTheRomans posted:

I can't remember the last time I saw a polling company include the R-squared value of a trendline. Political science = toilet science

What do you expect the R-squared value of a trendline to prove to you? Think carefully before answering.

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/uk-independence-party/news/83307/paul-nuttall-should-%E2%80%98sod-back-where-he

Politics Home posted:

Paul Nuttall should ‘sod off back to where he came from’, says Labour rival

...

A Ukip spokesperson told PoliticsHome: “Labour must be so proud. Stoke deserves better than this uncouth nativist."


:ironicat:

Jippa
Feb 13, 2009
What a piece of poo poo.

https://planetradio.co.uk/city/local/news/ukip-leader-paul-nuttall-admits-claims-losing-close-friends-hillsbrough-false/

MikeCrotch
Nov 5, 2011

I AM UNJUSTIFIABLY PROUD OF MY SPAGHETTI BOLOGNESE RECIPE

YES, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY SIMPLE DISH

NO, IT IS NOT NORMAL TO USE A PEPPERAMI INSTEAD OF MINCED MEAT

YES, THERE IS TOO MUCH SALT IN MY RECIPE

NO, I WON'T STOP SHARING IT

more like BOLLOCKnese
Holy lol at this Times quote from the outgoing Met commissioner's final speech:

Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe posted:

“We can’t afford to have officers think twice because they fear the consequences of shooting someone,” he will tell the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) today

I feel like the consequences of shooting people should be the kind of thing people think twice about, but maybe that's just me?

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal
Shoot first, plant evidence later.

Looke
Aug 2, 2013

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/14/ukip-leader-admits-claim-that-he-lost-close-friends-at-hillsborough-was-false

hahahhaha

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Guavanaut posted:

There are animal rights activists who get jobs at slaughterhouses and vivisection labs to do just that, it's where most of the photos you see on the streetside animal rights booths come from. Maybe she was doing a similar thing.

I don't get what GCHQ's problem with whistleblowers is though, if they're not doing anything wrong, what are they afraid of? :v:

Quite a bit easier getting a job at a slaughterhouse than getting access to GCHQ. Not impossible, but the DV is a bit of a blocker.

Also what consequences for shooting someone? Police get off every loving time.

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


MikeCrotch posted:

Holy lol at this Times quote from the outgoing Met commissioner's final speech:


I feel like the consequences of shooting people should be the kind of thing people think twice about, but maybe that's just me?

British politics can be summed up in one quote from The Thick of It: "The Shawshank Redemption but with more tunnelling through poo poo and no redemption". Awful country full of awful people. At least Hogan-Howe is on his way out, presumably to end up replaced by some equally massive bellend

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

lol what a massive bellend

Jedit
Dec 10, 2011

Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

MikeCrotch posted:

Holy lol at this Times quote from the outgoing Met commissioner's final speech:


I feel like the consequences of shooting people should be the kind of thing people think twice about, but maybe that's just me?

No, he's right. If a copper really needs to shoot someone the consequences have to take a back seat or he might be the one who gets shot. The problem is that coppers aren't being properly trained to know when shooting is necessary.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Jedit posted:

No, he's right. If a copper really needs to shoot someone the consequences have to take a back seat or he might be the one who gets shot. The problem is that coppers aren't being properly trained to know when shooting is necessary.

What consequences???

Jedit
Dec 10, 2011

Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

mfcrocker posted:

What consequences???

Everyone knows you're the murdering copper bastard.

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

I'm sure the copper in question would feel just terrible and really, isn't that enough?

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Jedit posted:

Everyone knows you're the murdering copper bastard.

Who shot Jean Charles de Menezes?

(sounds like the season finalé to some poo poo TV show)

MikeCrotch
Nov 5, 2011

I AM UNJUSTIFIABLY PROUD OF MY SPAGHETTI BOLOGNESE RECIPE

YES, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY SIMPLE DISH

NO, IT IS NOT NORMAL TO USE A PEPPERAMI INSTEAD OF MINCED MEAT

YES, THERE IS TOO MUCH SALT IN MY RECIPE

NO, I WON'T STOP SHARING IT

more like BOLLOCKnese

OwlFancier posted:

I'm sure the copper in question would feel just terrible and really, isn't that enough?

"Won't somebody think of the poor policeman's career!!!" *dead body of innocent victim is carted off in the background*

Taear
Nov 26, 2004

Ask me about the shitty opinions I have about Paradox games!

The people that are voting for him aren't going to read this story anyway so I don't think it'll make a difference at all.

Tigey
Apr 6, 2015

Taear posted:

The people that are voting for him aren't going to read this story anyway so I don't think it'll make a difference at all.

Its since made it to other sites, like Yahoo, etc. The readers hear, but it doesn't support their narrative so they dismiss out of hand - the general gist of the comments is 'FAKE NEWS!!!!!' 'Politican lies? This is news. Still, VOTE UKIP' 'So what - Muslims OUT!'

Taear
Nov 26, 2004

Ask me about the shitty opinions I have about Paradox games!

Tigey posted:

Its since made it to other sites, like Yahoo, etc. The readers hear, but it doesn't support their narrative so they dismiss out of hand - the general gist of the comments is 'FAKE NEWS!!!!!' 'Politican lies? This is news. Still, VOTE UKIP' 'So what - Muslims OUT!'

I work in a place with a lot of Leave voters and it really doesn't matter what anything says or does, their minds are made up.

In the same way as immigration is a settled thing - it's bad. I don't know how anyone expects to change the minds of people who don't believe anything they're told any more.

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.


Taear posted:

I work in a place with a lot of Leave voters a lot of people who hate skivers and it really doesn't matter what anything says or does, their minds are made up.

In the same way as immigration higher taxes is a settled thing - it's bad. I don't know how anyone expects to change the minds of people who don't believe anything they're told any more.

You can apply exactly the same logic to any number of leftwing causes.

Looke
Aug 2, 2013

Out of all of last year, forget Brexit, forget Trump and forget Princess Leia dying. Fake News is literally the worst thing to have happened

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
just changed energy supplier to an all renewable one that will be a fair bit cheaper than who i was on :feelsgood:

they'll do everything for me as well in terms of changing

Pesky Splinter
Feb 16, 2011

A worried pug.
Looks like they've pulled that article from the Sun

The address bar has "legal-removal" in it.

MikeCrotch
Nov 5, 2011

I AM UNJUSTIFIABLY PROUD OF MY SPAGHETTI BOLOGNESE RECIPE

YES, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY SIMPLE DISH

NO, IT IS NOT NORMAL TO USE A PEPPERAMI INSTEAD OF MINCED MEAT

YES, THERE IS TOO MUCH SALT IN MY RECIPE

NO, I WON'T STOP SHARING IT

more like BOLLOCKnese

Taear posted:

I work in a place with a lot of Leave voters and it really doesn't matter what anything says or does, their minds are made up.

In the same way as immigration is a settled thing - it's bad. I don't know how anyone expects to change the minds of people who don't believe anything they're told any more.

The tactic our local CLP is considering is the classic improv trick of "Yes, and..." with response to immigration.

So if someone on the doorstep says "Immigration is terrible, my grandkid can't get a job" you respond with "Yes, it's terrible your grandkid can't get a job. That's why Labour is committed to eliminating youth unemployment via apprentice schemes and incentives." Then ask if they would still be concerned about immigration.

Just telling people NO UR WRONG is a pretty bad way of convincing anyone that you're right.

Pantsuit
Oct 28, 2013


Says the guy from Surrey.

How did he get through the selection process? I live and work in Stoke (can't vote in the by election though, I'm a trentham posho shhhhh) and UKIP posters are everywhere, they have that big base in Hanley. Haven't seen anything like that from Labour.

If UKIP somehow lose Stoke central it will cement their electoral incompetence.

Pantsuit fucked around with this message at 18:27 on Feb 14, 2017

Taear
Nov 26, 2004

Ask me about the shitty opinions I have about Paradox games!

MikeCrotch posted:

Just telling people NO UR WRONG is a pretty bad way of convincing anyone that you're right.

I'm not doing that. No matter what evidence, no matter what you say, you're just not believed. People don't believe anything any more.
My mum's a teacher and as much as she hates what the Tories have done to the education system you couldn't persuade her to vote (at all) because she believes everyone's just as bad. Sure there's policies that can show it'd get better but she doesn't believe they'd do that.

Time after time the same thing happens. Over and over.

Take the BBC going to stoke today and some people saying they voted leave to say "listen to us" to the elites. Okay, but what do they want the elites to do? Because the Tories aren't going to help them to get a job but they don't believe anyone will.

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/831552409302339588/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

mehall
Aug 27, 2010


Pantsuit posted:

If UKIP somehow lose Stoke central it will cement their electoral incompetence.

Yet not their irrelevancy, as the beeb and the papers will comtimue to seek out a UKIP opinion on everything aouth of Hadrian's wall, and on a few things north of it too.

WeAreTheRomans
Feb 23, 2010

by R. Guyovich

He's already trying to play the puppetmaster defence as well

:yum:

Looke
Aug 2, 2013


lol what an utter tool

namesake
Jun 19, 2006

"When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."


A powerful self-own.

WeAreTheRomans
Feb 23, 2010

by R. Guyovich
Usually those articles about what a great "troll" JK Rowling is are pretty eye-rolling (eye-Rowling?) stuff, but this was actually perfectly constructed on her part, kudos

Jippa
Feb 13, 2009
e -Never mind I am being an idiot.

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

WeAreTheRomans posted:

Usually those articles about what a great "troll" JK Rowling is are pretty eye-rolling (eye-Rowling?) stuff, but this was actually perfectly constructed on her part, kudos
Aye Rowling.

Bacon Terrorist
May 7, 2010

to ride eternal, shiny and chrome

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2022
I see Labour have somehow contrived to have a candidate as poo poo as Nuttall standing in Stoke :doh:

With regards to the general public and voting, my work is very militant and politically switched on but I know a scary amount of people who didn't vote in the general election and actively ignore the news in favour of loving Hollyoaks.

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall
so has anyone in the thread sat down and worked out the easiest and cheapest way to cause mass disruption yet?

my idea is def burning waste at 6am at junctions of the m20. Nice, victimless, easy to clean, total chaos.

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TinTower
Apr 21, 2010

You don't have to 8e a good person to 8e a hero.


If only Corbyn had a chance to vote against a Brexit that didn't have those safeguards. If only.

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