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Main Paineframe posted:The status quo, naturally. North Korea will continue to carry out their nuclear weapons program, and the US and China will continue to whine uncomfortably about it while doing nothing meaningful. Watch kim 3 start selling the technologies to Iran, Iraq and Turkey soon.
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Mar 6, 2017 22:12
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whatever7 posted:No, it has stayed the way it is because US policy makers are not willing to put enough chips on the table to deal. What chips?
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Mar 7, 2017 00:14
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Woohoo kidnapping! http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39189381
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Mar 7, 2017 05:20
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This'll be interesting to watch, wasn't Malaysia the only non-despotic trading partner that the Norks had?
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Mar 7, 2017 05:42
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Yureina posted:Woohoo kidnapping! What.
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Mar 7, 2017 05:43
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It's not been mentioned in this thread, but Malaysia has also been http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/02/28/bukit-aman-aware-north-korean-companies/ http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/02/28/n-korean-arms-link-in-kl-pyongyangs-spy-agency-has-military-equipment-scheme-here-says-un/
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Mar 7, 2017 06:05
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whatever7 posted:No, it has stayed the way it is because US policy makers are not willing to put enough chips on the table to deal. Even if the US and China had the ability to come to some kind of diplomatic solution for deposing the regime in North Korea, who would want to pick up the tab for what has to be an almost historically unprecedented rebuilding program? I'm skeptical that the current political atmosphere is there for the US to enact Marshall Plan 2.0, so who's the party that's going to want to pick up the cost of reintegration? Or do we set up another strongman by joint agreement and keep our fingers crossed that he and his descendants don't get out of line for another generation or two?
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Mar 7, 2017 06:11
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:Even if the US and China had the ability to come to some kind of diplomatic solution for deposing the regime in North Korea, who would want to pick up the tab for what has to be an almost historically unprecedented rebuilding program? I'm skeptical that the current political atmosphere is there for the US to enact Marshall Plan 2.0, so who's the party that's going to want to pick up the cost of reintegration? Or do we set up another strongman by joint agreement and keep our fingers crossed that he and his descendants don't get out of line for another generation or two? Most likely South Korea if they decide to reunify - or just carve up the natural resources and sell them off as 99 year contracts to the highest bidders if you're leaving North Korea as some rump state.
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Mar 7, 2017 07:07
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Synthbuttrange posted:It's not been mentioned in this thread, but Malaysia has also been Thanks for that. Are there any other realistic options for Malaysia to punish or pressure North Korea?
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Mar 7, 2017 07:21
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GreyjoyBastard posted:What. I was being sarcastic, obviously. It's a pretty hosed up move that, to me, is basically a kidnapping. But it seems like Malaysia has done it right back and is banning North Koreans from leaving Malaysia. Not the first thought that crossed my mind... and I doubt DPRK will care very much about their own citizens aside from how they might be able to use the "insult" politically. Ragingsheep posted:Most likely South Korea if they decide to reunify - or just carve up the natural resources and sell them off as 99 year contracts to the highest bidders if you're leaving North Korea as some rump state. Yeah. Chances are either South Korea will get the North dumped on them and basically have a worse German unification scenario, or China, terrified of having a nation with US troops in it on its border, will create some new puppet to hold onto DPRK to keep Korea from unifying. Not sure how things would play out if they decided to do that though. If for some reason the Kims were to fall and DPRK descended into chaos, it might be better for the South to either invade under the guise of restoring order or to just let the shitstorm go and let China reap the consequences of them having kept North Korea alive in 1950.
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Mar 7, 2017 08:16
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Yureina posted:I was being sarcastic, obviously. It's a pretty hosed up move that, to me, is basically a kidnapping. Since Malaysia was one of the few countries with a decent relationship with North Korea, I wonder how much it going to hurt them economically?
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Mar 7, 2017 09:43
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Ragingsheep posted:Since Malaysia was one of the few countries with a decent relationship with North Korea, I wonder how much it going to hurt them economically? By most accounts, DPRK is a shithole. I doubt that Malaysia deciding not to do business with them anymore will have a big effect. I could be seriously wrong about this.
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Mar 7, 2017 12:50
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I have been thinking about the recent China-Koreas news. My theory is these "Beefs" with both NK and SK are manufactured. First of all, take a look at the NK coal ban, it happened right after big Kim got killed, I think it was just a few hours after. There was no way China could figured out who killed big Kim so fast. Secondly big Kim didn't even have Chinese body guards with him. If he was still important to China, he would be walking around with a couple Chinese details. So what I am saying is that the coal ban come out of nowhere. This is China trying to sell the narrative that NK has gone rogue and China can't control fat kim. Secondly this China SK THAAD beef is being handled on the civilian level. There is no higher up from Beijing say threatening things to SK; no People's Daily editorial saying scary things to SK. Basically Beijing is not sending any official message. All there is some civil regulation bodies handing out some fines to the Lotte group, which is not a lot of money and can be easy reimbursed later. I think Beijing still has money on the SK opposition party winning the next election and establishing a better relationship with Beijing. If China really wants give the South Koreans a hard time they would fine Samsung half a billion anyway. So this is nothing. I think this is China manufacturing cold relationships with both Koreas and kick the ball to US and let the new administration handle the NK mess. This is not going to change until after the 19th Congress. That's my 2 cents.
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Mar 7, 2017 15:41
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I figured out who killed Kim Jong-nam a fraction of a second after I heard that he was dead.
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Mar 7, 2017 15:46
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whatever7 posted:I think this is China manufacturing cold relationships with both Koreas and kick the ball to US and let the new administration handle the NK mess. Given that China wants predictability and stability, this seems like a terrible idea. Either Trump is going to ignore NK because his national security people are obsessed with a clash of civilizations-type war with Islam (until Kim gets nukes on an ICBM and sells the tech to all comers,) or Trump is going to do something rash and poorly thought through because he can't back down (re ICBM launch: 'it won't happen!').
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Mar 7, 2017 15:50
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Mozi posted:Given that China wants predictability and stability, this seems like a terrible idea. Either Trump is going to ignore NK because his national security people are obsessed with a clash of civilizations-type war with Islam (until Kim gets nukes on an ICBM and sells the tech to all comers,) or Trump is going to do something rash and poorly thought through because he can't back down (re ICBM launch: 'it won't happen!'). Every US president get tested. Remember the spy plane incident? That happened right after W took the office. If pissbaby tries to ignore the NK problem, then China knows he is a puss.
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Mar 7, 2017 16:05
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China knows he's a puss because of the 'Xi not talking to him until he reaffirms the One China policy' thing. I'm just saying that they may regret waiting for Trump to make the next move, because odds are it won't be rational or sound.
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Mar 7, 2017 17:53
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whatever7 posted:I think this is China manufacturing cold relationships with both Koreas and kick the ball to US and let the new administration handle the NK mess. This is not going to change until after the 19th Congress. China doesn't want North Korea "handled" by the US. Giving up influence, control, and stability on the Korean peninsula in exchange for daring Donald Trump to do one of several things neither China nor the US wants?
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Mar 7, 2017 19:01
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Main Paineframe posted:China doesn't want North Korea "handled" by the US. Giving up influence, control, and stability on the Korean peninsula in exchange for daring Donald Trump to do one of several things neither China nor the US wants? Why not, whatever pissbaby tries to do, he will gently caress it up and end up sending tons to food to NK anyway. Fat kim basically has 1 shot to send a nuclear ICBM, he can shoot it to Japan, California, or SK. After that he is done for. Fat kim is not going to use his one chance. I don't see China losing anything in next round of nuclear shake down. The previous argument was that China will lose face if Beijing let Kim 3 do whatever him wants. But that argument implies China still has responsibility over Kim 3's action. Think of China as Chris Pratt and Kim 3 the Raptor he trained. But quitting the job, Pratt/China are not responsible for raptors' damage anymore, yet still in a position to renegotiate a deal to handle the raptors. It's win-win!
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Mar 7, 2017 19:19
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sincx fucked around with this message at 06:32 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Mar 7, 2017 20:35
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sincx fucked around with this message at 06:32 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Mar 8, 2017 03:00
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Yureina posted:I was being sarcastic, obviously. It's a pretty hosed up move that, to me, is basically a kidnapping. I wasn't commenting on your statement, I was commenting on the unsurprisingly ludicrously insane policy. Good on Malaysia, I can only imagine the distance one could hear the shouting when the NK ambassador met whoever about the VX incident.
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Mar 8, 2017 03:08
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Looks like they're pulling an Assagne.quote:Malaysia's police chief says at least two suspects in the nerve agent assassination of Kim Jong-nam are holed up in North Korea's barricaded embassy in Kuala Lumpur and police would wait as long as necessary to arrest them. http://www.theage.com.au/world/north-korea-assassination-suspects-barricaded-in-embassy-in-kuala-lumpur-20170307-gut4px.html
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Mar 8, 2017 03:13
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Synthbuttrange posted:Looks like they're pulling an Assagne. Oh my loving Vishnu. 
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Mar 8, 2017 03:16
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GreyjoyBastard posted:Good on Malaysia, I can only imagine the distance one could hear the shouting when the NK ambassador met whoever about the VX incident. I'd pay to have a video of his reaction. I still am having trouble figuring out who thought that unleashing a WMD in an airport was necessary in order to off this guy who basically was no credible threat to DPRK. It makes me think that either they really hated him, or whoever plots out their assassinations lives in a fantasy land where using poison gas is a normal thing. Synthbuttrange posted:Looks like they're pulling an Assagne. This is gonna be fun. If it wasn't for this hostage situation, I'd think Malaysia would just take the embassy down. At this point it's clear that relations between them and DPRK are hosed and will remain so for quite a long time. So there is little reason to play this stupid game like what has been going on with that rear end in a top hat Assange.
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Mar 8, 2017 06:47
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Yureina posted:I'd pay to have a video of his reaction. I still am having trouble figuring out who thought that unleashing a WMD in an airport was necessary in order to off this guy who basically was no credible threat to DPRK. It makes me think that either they really hated him, or whoever plots out their assassinations lives in a fantasy land where using poison gas is a normal thing. I think it's a way to scare potential defectors. Showing the world that they have WMD is just an added bonus.
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Mar 8, 2017 08:01
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Yureina posted:If it wasn't for this hostage situation, I'd think Malaysia would just take the embassy down. Are there any established international norms regarding if things or people are considered off limits when an embassy is shuttered? In particular with regards to any DPRK people wanted by Malaysian authorities who might be sheltering in the DPRK embassy in Malaysia? Are they still protected on the way out? I understand that international norms can be broken but I am curious & uneducated about what those norms are for a situation like this
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Mar 8, 2017 08:46
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u brexit ukip it posted:I think it's a way to scare potential defectors. Showing the world that they have WMD is just an added bonus. Makes sense. Still, it does not seem worth this much trouble. I'd understand more if the target was a serious legit threat. Not that we will ever likely know, but I wonder how this whole incident is going down inside DPRK itself. Specifically between whoever greenlit this assassination and everyone else. It is probably just wishful thinking on my part, but to me this would be yet another example of how unhinged fatty kim really is and that it would probably be best to whack him before he turns on them. Anymore than he already has, anyway. It's how Robespierre fell. What's keeping a faction in DPRK from doing something similar with this manchild, I wonder?
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Mar 8, 2017 08:50
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You're operating under the assumption that whoever replaces him won't be worse.
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Mar 8, 2017 09:03
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Tias posted:You're operating under the assumption that whoever replaces him won't be worse. You do have a point there... Besides, daydreaming about DPRK getting ruined from within by some internet nutter isn't going to actually lead to that happening.
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Mar 8, 2017 09:07
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Yureina posted:You do have a point there... Even if they run out of Kims, placing an old guard general on the throne could be doable, and even then it wouldn't lean to ruination of the DPRK. All they'd have to do is say "mistakes were made, perhaps the Kim dynasty does not, in fact, poo poo double rainbows" and open for more liberalizations of the economy. Their population can't really say no and go elsewhere, after all. Tias fucked around with this message at 11:49 on Mar 8, 2017 |
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Mar 8, 2017 09:11
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Yureina posted:What's keeping a faction in DPRK from doing something similar with this manchild, I wonder? The fact that once he's gone, it's a free-for-all. You can kill Korean Kartman easy enough, but what about the other factions?
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Mar 8, 2017 09:53
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Has Malaysia said where Kim jong nam was flying to?
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Mar 8, 2017 11:39
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whatever7 posted:Has Malaysia said where Kim jong nam was flying to? From Macau China into Malaysia. Apparently the airport is the only place where he isn't protected by bodyguards.
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Mar 8, 2017 13:31
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North Korea announced yesterday they are preventing any Malaysians currently in North Korea from leaving until Malaysia gives them what they want.
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Mar 8, 2017 13:49
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TheWetFish posted:Are there any established international norms regarding if things or people are considered off limits when an embassy is shuttered? When the US embassy in Iran was taken over and shut down, everyone present was seized and held, although various people did manage to get released over the first few days. Of course, that happened after 2 prior attempts to seize and end the American embassy that year, and when the successful one occurred the American ambassador had left already and the office was operating on greatly reduced staff.
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Mar 8, 2017 16:03
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CommieGIR posted:North Korea announced yesterday they are preventing any Malaysians currently in North Korea from leaving until Malaysia gives them what they want. What did they want!?
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Mar 8, 2017 16:06
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Tias posted:What did they want!? I suspect the return of the siezed individuals and the body of Kim's brother.
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Mar 8, 2017 16:08
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There is another Kim. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/08/kim-jong-nam-death-man-claiming-to-be-son-appears-video-kim-han-sol A video has emerged of a man claiming to be the son of the assassinated half-brother of North Korea’s supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, saying he is safely with his mother and sister.
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Mar 8, 2017 23:16
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Synthbuttrange posted:There is another Kim. Well hopefully at least these particular Kims are not fuckheads. Also that wherever they are hiding doesn't get gassed or whatever next crazy assassination scheme fatty kim comes up with.
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Mar 8, 2017 23:20
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