Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
grandalt
Feb 26, 2013

I didn't fight through two wars to rule
I fought for the future of the world

And the right to have hot tea whenever I wanted
So I sit back, and see how well you can put the clues together. Given that I have peeped behind the curtain, my laughter or sighs on your guesses will remain with myself, until much later. Good luck.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

BurningStone
Jun 3, 2011
Time to re-read everything, I guess....

Prof, you said we'd have the needed info to solve the murders by the end of this arc? Are we there yet?

BurningStone fucked around with this message at 03:57 on Mar 11, 2017

resurgam40
Jul 22, 2007

Battler, the literal stupidest man on earth. Why are you even here, Battler, why did you come back to this place so you could fuck literally everything up?

Fabulousvillain posted:

I don't have any red quotes to counter this but reading it gave me another theory on this. Since there was a scene of Battler chasing after someone after Kumasawa called everyone over. Kanon was dead before the first twilight. And The Kanon we know is an imposter that placed the corpse of the real Kanon in the boiler room with a stake in his chest. Just feel like throwing this out there, also it seems pretty convenient that Kinzo is extra crispy whenever Battler sees him so he died before the first twilight too probably maybe. That's all I cooked up from your post, I might come up with some more if you post something on Episode 2. Cause I don't even remember 90% of Episode 2 honestly. :blush:

Hm. Rereading that section, I personally wonder if Battler actually saw a person running away, or simply thought he did; it is an extremely high stress situation and all parties involved have lost somebody in a traumatic fashion, and it is possible to imagine things there. Perhaps Natsuhi merely thought there was someone else there, and the door had been prepared earlier by whoever put the six-toed corpse (probably Kinzo) in the furnace, or maybe they simply left the door ajar when they left. I don't suppose I can discount that Kanon might be an imposter, but... who would you have in mind here? Because the 19th person theory has been shown to be a load of bunk, and introducing a heretofore unknown person at this point would be cheating, according to one of the sets of the mystery rules.

Anyway, it's time to move on to the other games now, because I wanna get all my theories out in the open tonight (so to answer Prof's question: it's up to you, but I'm going to try to say all I want to say tonight, so you need not wait on my account! :v: ) I'll try to be brief, but there's a lot to cover, and I've been thinking about this all day and writing things down has been how I organize my thoughts.

The Second Game

-First mystery: Pre-Game Beatrice. Kind of easy to fit into my theory- Kanon and Shannon imagined meeting Beatrice- but when we consider my conspiracy theory, these scenes become very interesting. Here we have a literal folie a deux appearing within the plot that had us all scratching our heads when it came around... initially I thought that it was only Shannon having these visions with Kanon indulging her for some reason, but like before, the common motif of needing two to make a world comes up again.. What if the vision of Beatrice is something they shared together? And if they did share it... what if each became Beatrice for the other? And the whole encroachment of Kanon upon the beach Tea party was Kanon re-asserting "himself"? If we follow that line of thought to its conclusion, this throws the entire relationship of Kanon and Shannon into flux. If Beatrice is imagined between them, are the conversations they've had between them as well? Is their relationship at all what the game says it is, or is it a fiction on the part of one or the other? With this in mind, I don't think I can trust any of their conversations together without other people to have happened as we see them... and come to think of it, isn't Kanon's relationship to Jessica really weird and one-sided? There's nothing that's happened between them that convinces me that the crush Jessica feels is at all reciprocated; even after the concert scene Kanon has the line about how he "still can't see the ocean as blue" and thus does not love Jessie; and his whole bit where he confesses his love for Jessica happened from Shannon's perspective, during a conversation just between the two of them- and thus may be completely bogus, a figment of Shannon's imagination. I really don't know where I'm going with this, it is in the end just a suspicion I have, but in the spirit of this game, I present the suspicion as a blue truth:

There is no Kanon. He is a fabrication. His name, his personality, his relationship to Shannon and Jessica- it's a mask the person we have come to know as Kanon wears, and is able to discard at any time, perhaps with a keyword or phrase. This allows Beatrice to say that "Kanon is dead" in red, allowing the person behind him to continue being a piece on the game-board. And this nay be applicable to Shannon too.

-Second mystery: College Beatrice. I think it's Kanon. This is due to a couple of factors, the first of which is Genji's completely odd command to Kanon that he "be prepared" for the incoming "special guest," which could be Battler, but come on... So prepare... as in dress up as, to provide a red herring in the guise of the 19th guest? Second factor: Kanon is very suspiciously and conspicuously absent and not apparently doing a lot, on a day that is allegedly an all-hands-on-deck sort of day for the servants - yet no one so much as comments on his absence. The only one who talks to him at all on Nov 4th, other than Beatrice, is Shannon, and like I hypothesized above, any conversation those two have alone is possibly fake. Particularly these conversations, which include Kanon doing some very un-Kanon like things, such as a tearful declaration of love for Jessie (which I also doubt). I know some people like to think of Shannon being Beatrice, but she wasn't her today- she was out and about and seen by the kids. And in any case, the tattoo's wrong: Shannon's one wing tattoo is on the left leg (which you can see through her totally legitimate and not lewd at all thigh window) while Beatrice's tattoo is on the right leg. (Yes, both legs might be tattooed in her case, but that might be true of Kanon too, since both his and Shannon's left leg are covered... and besides, Kanon's face is closer to Beatrices than Shannon's, which is too full.) So such is my hypothesis: Kanon came to Rosa and Maria in the garden, and gave Maria some "new" candy through slight of hand. It was Kanon-as-Beatrice that was seen by Kyrie on the stairs, and it was Kanon-As-Beatrice that talked to the siblings in the chapel... and possibly called them back there during the night to murder them.

-Third mystery: The Closed Room in the Chapel with the Six Sacrifices. Battler covered this one adequately in the thread, so I won't really go over that again; I'll just present how if fits into my theory. Kanon-as Beatrice either sent Rosa away somehow, or arranged to have the other siblings and their spouses come to the chapel later that night. When they came, they met Kanon, Shannon, and possibly Genji and Kumasawa as well, and killed them. Then they arranged the Halloween party, locked the door with the chapel key, and then someone- I'm thinking Shannon- either dropped the key in Maria's letter in her bag, or more likely completely switched the envelope for another just like it while Maria slept.

-Fourth Mystery: The two who are close. OK, here I need to completely recant my initial thing, because at first it seemed like Kanon was too obvious because there was no corpse. But now that I am highly suspicious of not only Kanon but every other servant except Gohda, that's out the window... so let me outline the way Jessica's murder happened according to my theory: The bits with Gohda involved happened as they did in the story: Jessica takes Kanon's key, storms the guest room, and finds Beatrice's letter (left by Kanon). After she storms off in a rage, Kanon asks Gohda if he can take care of this, and Gohda leaves. After this, Kanon goes to Jessica's room and is met by another servant- could be Kumasawa, could be Shannon and Genji (they were "copying Kinzos will," after all, which they wouldn't do if he were dead). They knock, Jessica lets Kanon in, and he kills her and drives the stake in. Afterwards, he leaves, and the door is locked by the other servant's master keys. They rejoin the group, while Kanon hides.

-Fifth Mystery: The drat locked room of Nanjo and Kumasawa. I try but somehow this particular locked room has always tripped me up in the past... I will attemto cleave to a certain storypt to do it justice here , but I'll likely make another glaring error, so bear with me... In the kitchen, everyone- Shannon, Kumasawa, Genji, and Nanjo- turns on Gohda. They tell him to cleave to the story of Kanon "coming back" and being driven away with a spider web, so as to build the legend of the witch. Then a letter is produced by Genji, Kumasawa and Nanjo drop their keys in and the letter is sealed with the signet ring and put the letter for Rosa to find. Then Nanjo and Kumasawa go outside to meet Kanon by the tree and are killed there by him, the stakes planted. Meanwhile, the door is locked by Genji, and they go to fetch Rosa. I don't think there's anything here that contradicts a red truth... but I've been staring at this one for a while, and my brains kinda fried.

-Sixth mystery: the last closed room. There probably was nothing in the chapel when George, Shannon, and Gohda went to get Natsuhi's key... if there was anything, it was probably Kanon firing on them with a rifle. They run to Natsuhi's room, and run into Genji there, outside the room. Genji says something comforting to put them off guard, and then when they open the door, Genjy kills Gohda and Shannon kills George, or possibly Genji kills them both. Then they prepare the corpses with the stakes, Genji leaves, Shannon locks the room, and after smashing the mirror and planting the key in Georges hand, kills herself. No, I don't know how she does it, but drat it, unless my other extreme reach about Krauss having a key to Natsuhi's room is correct, I don't see how else it could have gone down.

While Genji was taking Rosa and Battler to the room, Kanon set the letter on the table and left.

Boy, that fell apart toward the end, didn't it? :sweatdrop: Now I probably need a new post regarding the other two games.

EagerSleeper
Feb 3, 2010

by R. Guyovich

Tender Child Loins posted:

Just caught up with the last updates. Ughhhh so heartwrenching! resurgam40 already said exactly what I was thinking during that scene with Beato making the weird faces: more evidence on the "Beatrice is a mask of bravado" pile. The mask is cracking, and the effort that she puts in to maintain that façade is becoming more strenuous. She's running out of steam, so Battler (and we) had better figure this poo poo out, and fast.

I'm glad that Ange was able to help her brother out, but a small part of me is disappointed that she essentially got fridged. I take solace in knowing that IRL Ange is off having murder adventures of her own, and hopefully coming to terms with the truth in her own way. I just hope that this isn't the end of her role in the story; I was just getting into her as a character!

So back to the murders. I have two main observations.

I noticed that the "gouge the X and kill" section of the ritual murders was really executed halfheartedly in this take. The stakes are only lodged in Krauss's and Kyrie's heads, and the rest are just lying next to Nanjo and Shannon. We've seen the latter before in episode 2, with Shannon in Natsuhi's room. It just seems really off, especially in light of the Stakes as characters. They make a point (lol) of being stab-happy, so it's hard not to notice when the stakes are just lying in proximity to the corpses. Why does that happen? You can't even make the case for them falling out of the appropriate wounds, since there's no indication that the corpses were maimed in the relevant areas. This seems like decisive evidence for the stakes in previous games being used to cover gunshot wounds, in case anyone was doubtful of that. It also seems like the culprit kind of lost their relish for the game, much like how Beato faded away after Battler failed his test.

Kanon's corpse goes missing yet again. Yes, it's easy to explain his absence away with the grate, but how and why would he be down there if it's impossible to open? When Kyrie's group escaped, there was no mention of a grate. And I doubt there would have been time to bolt a heavy metal grate onto the well in the time between the escape and Battler's discovery of the scene. So my thought is that no one came through the well. Instead, they could have been running from that point towards the mansion (or away from it; there's no indication that anyone was going in a particular direction). If that's so, where is Kanon? His death was pronounced in red, but in a game where name death is a thing, that's near-meaningless. His other persona could very well be the culprit.

Didn't get a chance to say this earlier, but I want to say that this is an excellent post, and I enjoyed how you understood piece Ange's death from a literary view point.


As for solving the mystery of the murder on Rokkenjima, I honestly don't have a clue because I'm not sure how much is different because of the different game boards. In the third game, Beatrice got rid of Evatrice by claiming that Eva was the culprit. I suppose that was never established in red though, so it doesn't really count as the truth.

All I got so far is that Krauss, Shannon, Kanon, Genji, Nanjo, Kumasawa, are main culprits in the real murder mystery. Maybe toss in George because he's in love with Shannon and would probably kill some people in his family to be with her. Gohda is an accomplice because the other servants are pressuring him to lie for them, but I don't think he really had a role in killing people (unless he poisoned people's food in the first game?). Krauss is doing his own thing and maybe employing the help of the servants, but the servants have their own plan they're enacting. Unfortunately that's all I got. I don't know if I'm supposed to be solving the main murder mystery or the individual games.

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?
As I said after the last update, what you are supposed to be doing right now is explaining how the murders of each game board could have been carried out by human hands.

resurgam40
Jul 22, 2007

Battler, the literal stupidest man on earth. Why are you even here, Battler, why did you come back to this place so you could fuck literally everything up?
Attempt 2 at keeping at brief.. no I am not doing a very good job at that. I am also not eating correctly for this (pizza and wings, not thinking man's food at all...)

The Third Game

Oh, a whole bunch of things I can skip! I think I can take Rosa's story at face value here, and the part in Kinzo's study is silly nonsense... the only other mystery to go over in the beginning parts is a more detailed account of Maria meeting Beatrice in the garden, and I've already gone over that (It was Kanon/Shannon.)

First Mystery: the Closed Room Ouroboros. Oh, we all had lots of fun with this one... CottonWolf already did a good job of laying out the red here so working within that frame, here goes: It was mostly set up with willing participants, being all part of the conspiracy except Gohda, and one (Kinzo) was already dead. So more than likely, Kinzo was done first; his body was fed to the furnace, then they find Gohda, the one unwilling participant, and kill him in the third floor waiting room, leaving the second floor VIP key with him. Then: Kanon is locked in the Chapel with the first floor parlor room key and letter he is pretending to be dead. Then Kumasawa is killed in the second floor guest room with master key and third floor waiting key. Then letters are set in boiler room, and locked with a master key. Then Genji is killed in the second floor VIP room, leaving the master and boiler room keys, after which Shannon goes to the first floor parlor, locks the door, and pretends to be dead. In the morning, Nanjo misdiagnoses Shannon and Kanon as dead.

Second Mystery: The Epitaph. No. I'm not gonna try this tonight, I've already got enough on my plate.

Third Mystery: the Two that Are Close. I've actually got two theories on this one, depending on whether the two who survived the first round... and just how crazy Eva gets after finding the gold. One theory is the favorite: Eva pushes Rosa onto the fence, and then strangles Maria to shut her up. Eva's a physical woman with martial arts experience, in really good shape, so she could kill them both and has a solid motive to do do... but rereading this chapter, doesn't that all feel too easy, somehow? Doesn't the fact that we know good and well that Beato is up to something and isn't telling the full truth change things, even if Eva is ambitious and greedy? Just because she could or would kill her family, doesn't mean that she necessarily did... especially with two people thought dead running around as I have hypothesized. So here: Kanon and Shannon kill Rosa and Maria, with one serving as a distraction while the other pushes Rosa onto the fence; then the first strangles Maria.

Fourth Mystery: Rudolph, Kyrie, and Hide. This is another one I doubt now, for the same reasons as above; even if Eva somehow was trying to get the former two killed, I don't see her trying to kill her husband, or even endanger him. So my mathematics gives me: During the first Twilight, evidence was planted in one of the rooms that implicate Hideyoshi- most likely a cigarette of his brand- that Kyrie finds and pockets. Later, Kyrie tells Rudolph of her suspicions, and the two come up with the food run to get Hideyoshi alone to interrogate him. During this interrogation, someone- Kanon or Shannon- fires upon them, and there's a shootout; either someone in the trio kills Rudolph or Kyrie and gets killed in retaliation, or all are killed by Kanon and Shannon. They are then prepared with the stakes.

Fifth Mystery: George, Krauss, and Natsuhi. Pretty easy to get him out if Shannon is actually alive... although the things needed to happen might be mixed up a bit. Shannon definitely lures George out; George jumps out the window, and it gets locked behind him. The question is when that happens, because it changes the scenario if Krauss and Natsuhi die before or after that. If they die before George is lured out, then... Nanjo lets in Kanon and Shannon, they kill Krauss and Natsuhi, their bodies get dumped out the window, Kanon & Shannon leave the guest house, Nanjo locks the guest house behind him, and Shannon lures George away while Kanon moves the corpses and prepares them. But if George is lured away before Krauss and Natsuhi die, then the same scenario happens, only Nanjo helps Kanon kill Krauss and Natsuhi... and that's difficult, as Nanjo's never killed anyone before and doesn't seem physical enough to just up and choke somebody...But I can't rule it out. Meanwhile, Shannon takes George to the Parlor, kills him, and leaves the PIN number on the wall, and then either kills herself or pretends to be dead.

Sixth Mystery: Nanjo. After Jessica gets blinded, this is my hypothesis: While Eva and Battler run around looking for the culprit, Nanjo looks outside the room... and sees Kanon, who kills him. Then, Kanon leads Jessica to a "safe place", and kills her. Meaning that Battler is the only confirmed kill of this run... if that is even true. It could be that either Shannon or Kanon killed Battler, and then left Eva to find Kuwadorian... or gave her directions. Or maybe Eva fled into the woods and found Kuwadorian herself. Ech, I don't actually know what happened there...

Well, this turned into another mess! But one more post to go, before I throw myself into bed...

idonotlikepeas
May 29, 2010

This reasoning is possible for forums user idonotlikepeas!
So, I've already posted theories about the first, second, and third games. I don't think I'm going to substantially revise them at this point (not least because I am tired from a full day of paxing), unless Beatrice blows something up with red text. That just leaves our current game, number four. Before that, I want to address a couple of Prof's questions directly:

ProfessorProf posted:

You've done a lot of hard work during this Episode trying to answer the questions of who and why, but now, we must set that aside and address how. Were the murders committed by magic, or by human hands? Does Battler's theory that an already-dead Kinzo allows an 18th extra person to slip onto the island hold, or is Kinzo's existence assured? How can all the mysteries of Rokkenjima be explained without the existence of witches?

* The murders were, of course, committed by human hands. And, you know, guns, and potentially knives and poison and fire and things. There's no other option, because witches and their magic don't exist and can't commit murder.
* This is two questions pretending to be one. I've gone back and forth on Kinzo. When the theory was first raised by the game, I leapt on it hard because I'd wondered about it myself. Then, several things happened that made it look like he had to be alive. But then the game kept shying away from that last confirmation, so I'm back to believing. Kinzo was dead: to begin with. This must be distinctly understood, or nothing wonderful can come of the story I am going to relate. I think his body gets put into the furnace in the boiler room in every game, although it didn't get found in the second one. Nevertheless, there is no extra person. There will never be any more people on Rokkenjima than the ones we've met, only fantasical stories about demons. It makes the murders too simple to solve. Even one extra human being can resolve almost everything if they're working with a servant or two. The answer can't be that simple.
* Mostly lies. The alteration of times and places and even methods of death, the involvement of accomplices, and the issuing of deceptive revelations and threats. Love, without which I am told it is not possible to perceive many things. The usual.


It's been a little frustrating to try to keep track of this one, since there's been so much timeline-jumping and horrifying childhoods and stories about animated stuffed animals and the like. I'll mostly rely on the data from this most recent entry, where Battler helpfully summarizes his findings on the island, while developing my theory.

Let's begin with the dining hall murders. For the moment, let's discard motive; we've had plenty of theories about that, and for the moment, we've been asking to focus on how and not who. Krauss calls the family together for the conference, pretending that Kinzo has told him to do this. Krauss is acting under pressure that, for the moment, we will say is transmitted by the servants, specifically Shannon, Kanon, Nanjo, and Genji. (Who ordered them to do this? Did they originate that pressure themselves? Ah, but we're doing how, not why.) Several of the meals are poisoned, probably by Kumasawa. When everyone is gathered, the servants pull out guns and tell everyone that they are now hostages as several of the guests drop dead to prove they're serious. I don't believe Genji is actually killed at this point, but let's assume all the remaining people are. Using the threat of violence, the survivors are herded into a hidden dungeon under Kuwadorian. Gohda, who was not involved in the plot, is sent to tell the children about the murder and the hostages and Kumasawa is sent along to keep an eye on him. The heads of the people in the dining room are then half-destroyed post-mortem. (This could be done with guns, but could just as easily be done with a hammer or something at this point.)

The living adults are forced to make phone calls to the children. The claim is that each will be tested for suitability to lead the family, but both the adults and the children are deceived by this; the only purpose is to separate the children and make it easy to pick everyone off. The two servants are separated too, to prevent further questioning from exposing their stories as fake and also to make it easier to kill them off later. All the stuff about "pitfalls" is fake, of course.

Here, we run into a manpower issue. There aren't a ton of servants (even more if Genji did get killed somehow earlier). Someone has to keep an eye on the prisoners. I'm guessing this is Shannon, who is represented by Virgilia in the fantasy story. But someone needs to go out and kill those kids. Probably Genji (represented by Ronove) goes out to kill Jessica, and Kanon goes out to kill George. Jessica is forced to tell Battler a few things on the phone that aren't precisely true - she doesn't KNOW that George was killed or that she's about to die by means of having hear head blown half-off, but that's the script, so she sticks with it. Probably she was promised that she'd be allowed to live if she stuck with it, but of course that was a lie too. George just gets shot through the head and left where he falls, because nobody needs to him for any further deceptions.

Once these folks are safely dead, Kyrie is taken from the cell and locked in a room upstairs. The remaining prisoners are let out of the dungeon, probably by Kanon. He likely pretends that he's rebelling against whatever conspiracy is going on, but he leads the hostages into a trap and they are all shot. Kanon "dies" first here because he abandons his Kanon identity when he openly murders his bosses. Then Kyrie is told (possibly by Nanjo) to call Battler and tell him about the golden thread and similar nonsense. Then she's shot.

Now it's time to do some cleanup. Since the servants in the shed are in on things, it's easy enough to get them to open the door from the inside, and then murder them, then string up the bodies. The key gets dropped back into Gohda's pocket, and the doors are closed from the outside. If they can't be locked from the outside like that, the tag on the key is switched with another one (note how the narrative pointed out the tag to us). That only leaves Shannon, Kanon, and Genji alive inside the mansion, and Battler and Maria outside. Maria is poisoned by Kanon and placed with her mother - she's given a relatively peaceful death because she was, in her own way, in on this conspiracy. In the meantime, Shannon dresses up as Beatrice and tries to get Battler to remember what he said to her when he left. He fails to do this. Shannon then takes Genji to the dining room and kills him, possibly in a fit of drunken rage, then takes Nanjo outside and kills him too. That leaves only one more death that has to happen, since Battler didn't remember his sin: Shannon has Kanon kill her. The well and its grate are a red herring. Kanon goes and sets up the fire that I believe tends to end these things, which presumably happens after our interlude with Battler here, and they both die in it.


I guess I can go a little bit into why this happened. I think, this time, the motive is our mysterious red text, although I guess without love it would be pretty difficult to notice.

Dr Pepper
Feb 4, 2012

Don't like it? well...

Adding something to the theorizers.

For Episode 3''s Closed Room Chain, Beatrice gave her definition of "Instant Death", once they are set to die they are unaable to take actions of their own will. Just something to think about.

Also, though Prof didn't point it out, the main narrative of EP4 ended past update. We're in the Tea Party now.

Runa
Feb 13, 2011

Having been a survivor of Ryukishi07 vs The Fans there's a lot I could say (I have a Taiwanese friend who was a part of the Chinese-language fandom that started to crack the Epitaph way back when, he's still bitter) but I won't.

What I will say is that the thread's theorycrafting posts and newbie reactions have been a consistent treat. And resurgam40's avatar really brings it all to another level.

witchcore ricepunk
Jul 6, 2003

The Golden Witch
Who Solved the Epitaph


A Probability of 1/2,578,917

Xarbala posted:

Having been a survivor of Ryukishi07 vs The Fans there's a lot I could say (I have a Taiwanese friend who was a part of the Chinese-language fandom that started to crack the Epitaph way back when, he's still bitter) but I won't.

What I will say is that the thread's theorycrafting posts and newbie reactions have been a consistent treat. And resurgam40's avatar really brings it all to another level.

Waaaaaaaaait...







were we right?

resurgam40
Jul 22, 2007

Battler, the literal stupidest man on earth. Why are you even here, Battler, why did you come back to this place so you could fuck literally everything up?
The Fourth Game

I probably didn't have to split this into another post, given how much of Ep4 is interspersed with Ange's future, and flashbacks to Maria and Ange's terrible lives... but there are a couple of things before tackling the central mysteries. First, Battler has already suggested a blue truth of Kinzo has been dead from the beginning, which hasn't been definitively answered yet by Beatrice... so seeing how many times the old coot ends up in the furnace, I guess I'll embellish that: Kinzo is always dead, and before the game begins, the conspirators steal his ring and stick him in the furnace. whether he smells or not depends on whether he was actually burned... I guess he just hung out there during the second episode. Also, Ange keeps finding letter, allegedly from Maria, describing these possible tales, so I'll throw out another one, as long as I'm throwing things out: Beatrice is the writer of those letters, and that letter writer is almost certainly Shannon or Kanon. It would depend on who was actually spending time with maria and getting to know her handwriting, but I feel strongly it was one of them.

First mystery: Well, heck, there's only one real mystery central to this episode, isn't there, and that's what happened in the dining room at the meeting; all the other mysteries are ancillary to that. First, let's get the big stuff out of the way: There was no loving secret passage or hole in the floor, that's stupid. I think it pretty well shatters the rules of mystery I can't be bothered to look up now- about how there can be no secret passages because that's cheating- and it makes no sense for a story grounded in reality to have that amount of crazy architecture. Like wise, as there was no passage, there was no Kuwadorian; they never went there. They stayed here, and an effort was made to convince the cousins that they were elsewhere. So going off the conspiracy hypothesis (the best horn I've got to toot), let me hypothesize: After the family meeting had gathered without the kids, they were set upon by the conspirators- Shannon, Kanon, Kumasawa, Nanjo, and possibly Genji as well had them. To show the family they aren't loving around, they shot the first six sacrifices: Natsuhi, Hideyoshi, Eva, Rudolph, Rosa, and either Genji shot himself or got shot by someone else. Then, Gohda was told at gunpoint to go with Kumasawa to the kids, and do exactly what they say- or else. Krauss and Kyrie are then herded herded to a phone within the house. There, Shannon called the guest house, and just as planned, the kids were told a terrible story, about how they MUST stay in the guesthouse to "protect themselves from Grandpa"... and to lock up Kumasawa and Gohda. And then Kyrie is coerced to give the challenge to the kids... perhaps she was told it was the only way to save them. Once the tests begin, though, the timing gets really tricky, and I wonder if I'm listing all these right as they could have plausibly happened. It's really late now (and I have diarrhea from the wings, they weren't even that good), but gently caress it- I've already come too far and I can make revisions in the morning.

So... the most important thing to have to happen here, is arrange things in such a way, that at 11:47 PM, Battler wanders from the guest house, finds Kumasawa and Gohda strung up (apparently) and George in front of the arbor, and makes it to his meeting with Beatrice on time. And the kids were told of their tests, and directed to lock up Gohda, and Kumasawa, at 11:00 PM, and they were given directions by Krauss and Kyrie, so they have to be alive then. That makes for one hell of an hour! :sweatdrop: So we gotta get the bodies to where they need to be, and kill them at the appropriate time (after Battler has received two phone calls in succession confirming magic), AND get all the bodies to where they need to be where Battler finds them later... that there is a magic trick that requires extraordinary timing, and a lot of hands. First thing that happens is that all the hands need to be there, meaning that Kumasawa has to get free first. Jessica did feel like they were being watched, so I think that after the kids returned to the guesthouse to await the "test", immediately after. someone, possibly Kanon, came to the storage shed and unlocked it with a master key (here my strategy relies on the master keys opening the sheds, which has not been proven, but rolling with it anyway because my god its nearly 2AM) killed Gohda and strung him up. This leaves Kanon, Shannon, Kumasawa and Nanjo to wrangle the remaining folks, which are: Battler, George, Jessica, Maria, Krauss and Kyrie. We don't hear Krauss on the phone again, so it's likely he was killed now, and put on the porch with a stake through his head. Then Jessica and George get called to their testing areas: Jessica first by Kyrie to her room, George shortly after by Shannon to the arbor. This is tricky here, because we need to kill George outright, but we need Jessica to send a message to Battler, and we need Kyrie to send him another message from the first floor parlor room. Three different locations, almost concurrent deaths. my thinking is Shannon in the Arbor, Kanon in Jessicas room, and Kumasawa in the first floor room, while Nanjo takes the key ring from Genji's body and drops it by the chape, afterwards going to the well. George is killed outright with a shot to the head, and being in the Arbor puts shannon hear the well, where she kills Nanjo and arranges the body. Kanon coerces Jessica to give a "dying message" about magic, and afterwards retires to Kinzo's office to put his face on; and Kumasawa forces Kyrie to do the same from the first floor room a short while after. Then, Kumasawa meets shannon at the shed; Shannon kills her, strings her up, and locks the shed with her master key, and goes to the place where Maria will be tested, where Kanon-as-Beatrice sends her. Then, while Kanon as Beatrice tests Battler, Shannon poisons Maria, lays her body next to her mom, goes to the well, and kills herself, leaving none alive except Battler... and Beatrice.

... Oh, god, now that I've typed all that out, it seems even more like pizza crazed rambing (at least there was no beer, things are quite bad enough). This is very much a first draft, ideas hemhorraged out like a torrent, andthey probably need som revising, but I literally can't think anymore. So I'm gonna have a sleep, and afterwards probably reexamine all this if I have time. (It's frigging 2:30, how did tjhat happen? This game, is why...)

Runa
Feb 13, 2011

Tender Child Loins posted:

Waaaaaaaaait...







were we right?

The Chinese fans had been wanting to know if they were right or not for a long time

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


tiistai posted:

In this cat box, whatever isn't denied becomes the truth. You can disagree all you want, but that's not how this works.

I was thinking that multiple theories can go undenied, whereas multiple things cannot have actually all happened.

But I suppose Beatrice has committed to fighting until she loses, which I guess means no longer allowing a false or incomplete blue statement to stand, even if destroying them gradually reveals the only possibilities left?

Hmm, okay, I'm incompetent.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Dr Pepper posted:

Adding something to the theorizers.

For Episode 3''s Closed Room Chain, Beatrice gave her definition of "Instant Death", once they are set to die they are unaable to take actions of their own will. Just something to think about.

Huh. That's pretty cheap. I mean, in that case, you have an incredibly simple 19th person theory. I'll throw it out here:

Kinzo was dead, to begin with. All but one of the servants were picked off individually by the 19th person. Who of course is actually the 18th person has Kinzo was already dead. The 5 corpses were moved into their rooms, the rooms set up as required. The final servant is chased to in front of their room and wounded in some matter. This wound is mortal, but it only causes instant death in Beatrice's weird technical manner, i.e. fear clouds their mind and renders them unable to act under their own will. The 19th person threatens the last victim into go into the room locking the door and placing their master key into their pocket. This is against their will as they know they have no chance of surviving their wounds if they are not found soon. Nonetheless, they cannot resist. Locked in the room they succumb to the wound. This also fits the red text. Feels less satisfying though.

E: Any there any murders we're really not happy with our explanations for? I don't have much time today, but if there were one specific murder that needed attempting rather than a whole episode, I could probably find the time to give it a go.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 10:44 on Mar 11, 2017

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?
I think we've seen enough coverage of the four games that it's time to shed a little more Red on the situation.

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?


:siren::siren:Video: The Last Battle, Part 1:siren::siren:

And, if you opened your eyes amidst the darkness, the two of them could be seen in a rose garden...



:siren:BGM: Dreamenddischarger:siren:

"Me."
"How bold."

In the rose garden, beautiful rose petals danced.

The color of those rose petals... was red. Did the fact that they faced each other in this beautiful rose garden... prove... or make claim to a red, single truth?

...That must be why the roses are red. But in the language of flowers, roses represent passion. Not truth. The flower for truth is a forget-me-not.

And that flower... is blue.

"I'll bore through everything with my blue truth. From the very beginning of everything. I'll start from the very first game!"
"Very well. Let's see what you've got. Come."
"Here I go... I've already proclaimed it, but I'll say it again. This isn't just for the murder of Doctor Nanjo in the last game. This'll tear apart every scene from every game since the beginning...!!"





You can break through all of the murders in Episode 1 by supposing an unknown person X. Furthermore, it's even possible to explain the mystery of Kinzo's evaporation from the closed room sealed by the receipt... by making the bold assumption that Kinzo wasn't there in the first place. Unless Beato counters this with the red truth, the Illusion of the Witch from Episode 1 has been completely smashed.

...This blue truth is valid.



Was the red blood pouring out from there... a protest being made by her red truth...? Beato shut one of her eyes tight, enduring the unbearable pain of the blue truth that denied her.

"Hmm, not bad. But I mustn't be denied yet, I mustn't be killed yet. This is not yet enough. In the subsequent games, there were mysteries that couldn't be explained with that alone, right?"
"...Which mysteries?"
"In the final stages of the second game, George took Gohda and Shannon with him, barricaded them in Natsuhi's room, and was killed. The key that unlocked Natsuhi's room was locked up inside the room, and all of the remaining keys that could unlock that door were in Rosa's hand. Even if a culprit X existed, it should have been impossible to construct that closed room."

The blue wedge that pierced Beato shook. She was resisting, fighting to pull it out.

"No, that doesn't shake my blue truth. If culprit X were to obtain a master key, that's not even close to a closed room."
"No, it was impossible for the culprit to obtain one. All of the master keys were under Rosa's control!"
"But that's meaningless if Aunt Rosa was the culprit! Aunt Rosa handed a key over to culprit X by some method, assisting in the closed room murder! And after that, she retrieved the key by a similar method!"
"Too naive, Beato!! I'd already guessed that much at the time!"
"*cackle* Yes, you did, didn't you..."
" "...Gwaaargh...!!! ...Agh, ack-"



Beato let out a cry of anguish at that pain.

"...Guh, nngg... Not yet... This is still nothing..."
"Not yet, not yeeeeeeeet!!"



"This argument was already won back then. And even that final riddle you proposed through EVA, the murder of Doctor Nanjo, can be explained with an 18th unknown person X. That breaks through the whole third game!!! Can you counter that?!"
"Guh, aah...!! O-Of course...! This much is... nothing to worry about...!"
"In that case, how do you explain George's disappearance from the guesthouse? I shall add to the red truth. George did not go down the stairs of the guesthouse. He flew out through the window!"

In the final stages of the third game, George suddenly vanished from the second floor of the guesthouse. Eva, who had been on the first floor, claimed that no one had come downstairs, but because of the blue truth, George could've snuck down to the first floor and escaped while Eva was busy carrying Krauss's and Natsuhi's corpses outside. But by adding an additional red truth, Beato had denied that possibility. To go outside without going down the staircase to the first floor, he would've had to leave by the window. But all of the windows had been locked from the inside...!

"So what? It's just like you said. He flew out the window, right? There was a lawn, so we couldn't tell if he'd jumped down, and it was raining so hard. Any light traces would've disappeared."



"I'll use more of the blue. I said it myself at the time."
"In that case, everything works out as long as someone locked the window after George-aniki escaped through it! Nothing difficult about that!!"
"Gwaaaaaaaahhaaaaah...!! Gguuuuhhh... Can I not...escape after something like this...?"

Beato couldn't remove the blue wedge that was buried into her foot. The fake witch was burned more and more by that forceful blue...

"There's still nothing that shakes my blue truth in any of the first three games. In that case, the only game that can prove you're a witch... is this game, the fourth game."
"...Since I haven't countered you with the red, that is so. I shall have to prove witches using only this game. Very well. Give me everything you've got."



"The murders of George-aniki, Jessica, and those who escaped from the dungeon can also be explained with guns, just like the dining hall. There's nothing strange about it!"
"But I'm sure you've got a counterattack, right? Bring it on!!"
"Your greatest sword, this 18th person X, is based on the theory that Kinzo was already dead. I knew you would make that claim. That's why I took Kinzo out of his study. All members in the family conference welcomed that Kinzo, right? All of those who met at the family conference acknowledged the presence of Kinzo!"
"That's right. But Grandfather was seriously ill, bedridden on the verge of life and death, right? If he was so worn out that he looked like a different person, maybe no one would've cared, right?"
"I'll counter with this. That Grandfather was a different person, a body double. A different person the relatives mistook for Grandfather!"
"Then I'll counter with this. No person would mistake Ushiromiya Kinzo by sight. No matter what disguise might be used, they would not mistake Ushiromiya Kinzo by sight!"
"Then I'll use this. In the second game, when you announced with the red truth that there were five master keys, even though there could've been more than five in first game, you changed the premises of the later games. So, it's possibile that Kinzo's life or death status was changed for the 4th game alone."
"Therefore, Kinzo's presence in the fourth game doesn't serve as proof that he was present in the previous games...! Therefore, even if we suppose that the six murders in the dining hall were carried out by Grandfather, it contradicts nothing!"
"Then let me counter this way. Kinzo's life or death status is the same at the start of all four games. The setup was not different for the fourth game alone...!"



"Decline repetition. I won't answer, Battler. I won't give you the red truth you so desire...!"
"...drat, you're standing in my way, geezer...!! Are you putting yourself on the line to protect Beatrice, this most beloved witch of yours?!"

Swaying, that drat geezer came into view. Heh, is he trying to be some kind of knight, blocking the path between me and Beato...?!



"I won't let you reach, I will not let you reach, not to the Golden Witch's height, you seeeeeeeeee?! Fuhhahahahahahahahahaha!! Your thoughtless reasoning cannot surpass even me alone! Die!!!"



Faced with that black dragon's roar, I calmed my breathing and closed my eyes lightly...

"I'll swallow you up in a single gulp!! Disappear, inexperienced fooooooooooool!!!"
"...Quiet, you drat undying ghost."
"Hoh, so you call me a ghost? So, you intend to see it through to the end, this theory that I am already dead!! That will prove fatal to you!! Be swallowed up by the first twilight of the fourth game and disappear!!"

The black dragon's vast mouth, its snout, its fangs...swallowed Battler whole...!!! In that instant, Battler suddenly opened his eyes!

"Thanks, Beatrice. Your third game became a foothold for my counterattack."
"What...?"
"See ya, drat geezer. This is goodbye. As a basis for claiming that 'Kinzo was dead' even in the 4th game, I propose the following theory!"
"Very well, come with all you have, my descendant!!"









"I... can... not...!! Gah, gwoooooooooooooooooooragghgghghh!!"
"Rest in peace, drat geezer. Thank me. You were finally able to die. This is your requiem, take it and drop dead!!"
"Ushiromiya Kinzo was already dead! That's right, you definitely deserve to be pitied, since whenever we find your corpse, it's always completely burnt. That was a device to hide the fact that time had passed since your death!! Then, you passed that name on to someone else!! With this theory, even though 'you' were dead, 'Kinzo' was able to appear at the family conference!!!"





"...Be...atr...ice..."
"...Kinzo, thank you for everything. Rest... in peace... I will not forget... my time spent with you..."

Dispersing along with the shadow of the black dragon as golden flower petals scattered, Ushiromiya Kinzo became a gold-colored cyclone and disappeared... Even after death, he had fought for the sake of the woman he'd loved. There's no doubting that your love and madness were the real thing...!

"...Nggg, Battler..."
"Don't hate me. Let the dead sleep. Don't wake them. You're up next. This is the end for you too."

Beato still couldn't pull out the blue wedge that pierced her foot... She realized that she was on the verge of death...

"I've gone along with you a whole bunch. I think I've more than fulfilled any responsibility I had to play with you. But it's about time to finish things up. I've got a lonely little sister waiting at home."
"...Let me take my leave with my whole family...!!"
"...Then kill me. In that case, try and kill me! I won't run or hide, and by now I won't even be able to avoid it!! Come ooooooooooooooooooooooon, Ushiromiya Battleeeeeeeeeeeeeeer!!!"
"You've got it!! With the 18th person X from the 'Kinzo was dead' theory, everything that remained has been pierced through!"
"George-aniki and Jessica's deaths in the fourth game can also be explained by culprit X!! And the five who escaped from the dungeon and were killed, and the two in the gardening shed, and Maria in the end! All of those can be explained with 18th person X!! There's nothing strange there at all!!"



BGM: None



Beatrice, who couldn't dodge, had several blue stakes driven into her and was skewered... Beato grabbed at them, trying to pull them out somehow...



BGM: Worldend (solo)

...This'll... kill me, won't it...? If I don't pull these out, I'll die... I've had enough of the pain... I've had enough of... the... anguish...

With both hands, Beato firmly grasped one of the blue stakes. Naturally, the power of the witch-denying blue truth burned her hands. Unable even to hide her tears at the pain, Beato howled and tried to pull the stakes out with all her might...

If I can't pull these out, I'll die... This is... my final counterattack...



Certainly, at that time, Rosa witnessed gold butterflies gathering and the fixing of a marshmallow by the miracle of magic.

"*cackle*cackle*... Rosa alone witnessing it isn't very credible, right...? That's why I increased the number of witnesses to the uppermost limit later on. Which is what... happened in this last game..."
"The summoning of my minions! And brutal murders due to magic! All of those were witnessed by a great many people...!! That is itself... proof that my magic exists...!! How do you explain that, Ushiromiya Battleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeerr...?!!!"
"...Stalemate."
"...Wh-Whaat...?"
"'Magic exists because magic exists'. Didn't the rules of our Braun tube trial say that you couldn't use that kind of argument?"
"...Y...es, you're right... Heh, hahack, guh..."
"No matter who or how many people witnessed magic, that cannot become proof of magic's existence!!"
"Whether all the magic you've shown exists or not, I can ignore it all and explain things with Humans. That's my undeniable right. Am I wrong?"

At those words, the blue stakes let out an even brighter light, knocking my hands away. Seems I can't... pull them out after all... ggghh...

As Battler is now, even if I pull up a witness for each individual bit of magic and demand an explanation, he'll probably use some kind of move to deny all of them. Not just the magic with the marshmallow I showed Rosa, but all the miracles of magic. So, I can no longer even claim to be a witch without questioning him about something like how a marshmallow was fixed... I'm in such an inferior position that I must fight over such trivialities... It may be... impossible for me...

...I knew this...



Have I fought... up until today... just to lose to Battler...?

...I began the game... thinking I might be able to win. Even if I wouldn't be able to win easily, I believed that in a game repeating endlessly, a miracle would eventually occur. After all, I had certain willpower on my side, an unwavering desire to win with certainty.

...However, I've now lost that miracle completely. And, that certain willpower resides in Battler, leaving me certainly without even a one-in-a-million chance at a miracle. Or perhaps I should say I've been left without a miracle or certainty...

I will have no victory... and no end through a tie. The only resolution allowed me... is to continue on resisting... until defeat is given to me... in this game... That's right, I... am fighting... only to be killed by Battler...



...The figures of the little sister waiting for his return... and the family he had to bring back were reflected in those eyes. To him, my existence is already... not even that of an individual. Obviously. From the very beginning, he has been trying to deny the individual that I am.

Yes, that last game... sure was fun... I was only tricking him a bit, but for just a short period of time, it felt like we understood each other, and that was fun... That's right, I should've made my move then... I should have continued for eternity with Battler still totally fooled...

...But... that's just no good, right...? That... just wouldn't be true victory...



Beato had been run through with several blue stakes, skewered over and over to the ground while still standing. Because of that, she wasn't even able to fall over, and, still looking up into the sky, was sewn in place... That tragic form... might have been a fitting end for the cruel witch who had endlessly toyed with 18 people's lives and who had killed constantly for hundreds and thousands of years.

Gently, as though someone was mourning over something, rain began to fall. Amid that rain, Beato was soaked... and crucified...



"...Can't... even let out a squeak..."
"Not yet. You aren't a woman who'll let things end with just this."
"...Don't be... ridiculous... How can you look at this... and think that it isn't... over...? Quickly, deliver the final blow..."
"..."
"...Just say it. With your... blue truth. 'According to this, witches do not exist'. Say it... Just say it... With that single blow, just put a stop... to my breathing..."
"That's no good."
"...Hoh... So you would expose me... to even further shame...? Isn't it settled already...?"



"...Not over, you say...?"
"That just now wasn't you losing. You just stopped and gave up."
"...Isn't that... enough...? Wouldn't giving up... mean your victory? You should... return to your little sister... right away... Just throw me away... right here..."
"Didn't I tell you? I won't run away. And... I won't let you run away."
"..."
"Just who are you? And what in the world is it that you want?"



BGM: Eternity

"...Isn't it better this way...? With me as a mere... delusion, an illusion... Isn't that... enough...?"
"That's no goddamn good at all. I won't... let you run away."
"..."
"I'll break through you. How could I let you run away like this?"
"..."
"I won't let you run back to the darkness of illusions while you're still all hazy like this. I'll break through you. Completely. So stand up. Don't act all frail like that! You're still hiding several moves! I can tell!"
"...Why... won't you just let me escape...?"
"Dad, Mom, and Ange. All the cousins and all the relatives. And all the servants. You toyed with them so much and killed them...!! I definitely won't forget, won't forgive that inhumanity!"
"I can still feel... Ange's arms on my shoulders...!!"



Battler's eyes burned with the flames of hatred... The time had long since passed during which pitiful behavior would have earned his compassion. After being tricked once, Battler will never sympathize with me again. Instead of the wolves and sheep puzzle, this is like the boy who cried wolf, isn't it...?

...What am I supposed to do...? What should I do...? Is fighting endlessly only to avoid admitting defeat... a fitting endless torture for the Endless Witch? Is endlessly harassing Battler, to avoid giving him victory, also part of being the Endless Witch...?

...It's so sad... Is this... what the Endless Magic is...? I've... had enough...



I will have no victory... and no tie. In that case, there's only one result that can release me. Hmph, hahahahahahaha...

Since the time I succumbed to the path of witches. Since the day I made that contract with demons. It was promised that I would meet my end through tragedy, was it not...?



Lightning. The world was smashed with white. Fitting last moments... for the ruler of Rokkenjima.

Haha, hahhahahahahahahahaha...



BGM: Happiness of Marionette

"..."

Still pierced by the blue stakes, Beato faced the rainy sky and let out a cry of laughter. Then, she slowly raised her face... and stared at Battler.

"...Fool. Just when I was about to praise your good fight and hand over victory... You shall regret that pride..."
"This isn't something for you to hand over. I'm gonna take it from you!! The same goes for you, right?!! You could never accept an easygoing victory where I just say 'Maybe witches existing isn't so bad'... Isn't that the very reason you intentionally fell apart like that at the end last time...?!!! That's right, last game, you took pity on me just once, didn't you?!!"



"Hahhahaha... Fool. You foooooooooooool, hhahhahahahahahahahahahaha!! You simpleton...!! You think you'll get another chance?! Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhh!!!"

When Beato yelled, the blue stakes that had pierced her chest blew to bits and disappeared. However, the blue wedge that had pierced her foot in the very beginning did not vanish.

"You can't pull it out yet. You can't pull out the blue truth of the 18th person X...!!"
"I will respond to one thing you told me to repeat. As you reasoned, Kinzo is already dead at the starting time for all games!"



Danaru
Jun 5, 2012

何 ??
ahaha.wav

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

idonotlikepeas posted:

* This is two questions pretending to be one. I've gone back and forth on Kinzo. When the theory was first raised by the game, I leapt on it hard because I'd wondered about it myself. Then, several things happened that made it look like he had to be alive. But then the game kept shying away from that last confirmation, so I'm back to believing. Kinzo was dead: to begin with. This must be distinctly understood, or nothing wonderful can come of the story I am going to relate. I think his body gets put into the furnace in the boiler room in every game, although it didn't get found in the second one. Nevertheless, there is no extra person. There will never be any more people on Rokkenjima than the ones we've met, only fantasical stories about demons. It makes the murders too simple to solve. Even one extra human being can resolve almost everything if they're working with a servant or two. The answer can't be that simple.

On point there. It's a good thing very few of our theories have actually relied on 19th person or Kinzo.

idonotlikepeas
May 29, 2010

This reasoning is possible for forums user idonotlikepeas!

ProfessorProf posted:

The color of those rose petals... was red. Did the fact that they faced each other in this beautiful rose garden... prove... or make claim to a red, single truth?

...That must be why the roses are red. But in the language of flowers, roses represent passion. Not truth. The flower for truth is a forget-me-not.

And that flower... is blue.



Hell yes.

Incidentally, red roses are for romantic love, and forget-me-nots are also for memories. I wonder if he's being clever. (Forget-me-nots are for truth because they represent true love.)

ProfessorProf posted:

"Ushiromiya Kinzo was already dead! That's right, you definitely deserve to be pitied, since whenever we find your corpse, it's always completely burnt. That was a device to hide the fact that time had passed since your death!! Then, you passed that name on to someone else!! With this theory, even though 'you' were dead, 'Kinzo' was able to appear at the family conference!!!"

So, here we are at last. And we also have confirmation that trickery with names is allowed.


It doesn't surprise me a bit, but still, nice dick punch there, Beatrice.

RedMagus
Nov 16, 2005

Male....Female...what does it matter? Power is beautiful, and I've got the power!
Grimey Drawer
It's kind of admirable that We're not letting this go with an easy "oh ya sure I guess you win".

I'm really looking forward to finding out who Beatrice really is behind the mask.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

So if Kinzo's been dead all along, it has to be a grand conspiracy. Though obviously Kinzo's death and the murders could be simultaneous separate conspiracies.

At the very minimum, Nanjo, Genji, Kanon and Shannon must have known. It would be weird if Krauss didn't (as presumably he's the one covering it up, for inheritance reasons), and Natsuhi claims to have a conversation with him in episode 1, so she's lying about something. Kumasawa, while unfavoured, is shown to know pretty much everything, so I'm sure she's aware. Gohda and Jessica could go either way, as Gohda's pretty distant from the rest of the servants and Jessica's a child, so they might have kept it from her, even if it were common knowledge among all of the other permanent residents.

Robindaybird
Aug 21, 2007

Neat. Sweet. Petite.

The trick is we seen from Natushi's viewpoint when that conversation allegedly happens in 1, and 4 has Kinzo beating Krauss. It makes no sense for them (or the author) to outright make up those parts since we are seeing it from their PoV - it's clear they believed they saw Kinzo, so how does one explain both scenes?

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

Robindaybird posted:

it's clear they believed they saw Kinzo

No person would mistake Ushiromiya Kinzo by sight!

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Robindaybird posted:

The trick is we seen from Natushi's viewpoint when that conversation allegedly happens in 1, and 4 has Kinzo beating Krauss. It makes no sense for them (or the author) to outright make up those parts since we are seeing it from their PoV - it's clear they believed they saw Kinzo, so how does one explain both scenes?

I tend to think that none of those events happened. Krauss and Natsuhi, claimed to see Kinzo in order to perpetuate the lie he was still alive. The Kinzo throwing Krauss around stuff was nothing more than Beatrice's exaggerations of the events to throw us off the scent and make us this magic is real.

tiistai posted:

No person would mistake Ushiromiya Kinzo by sight!

Or the final twist is the Natsuhi and Krauss were blind all along, and mistook him by the sound of his voice or something.

Jade Rider
May 11, 2007

All the pages have been censored except for "heck," and she misread that one.


Speculating a bit on something I don't believe anyone has brought up.

Battler's "sin" is that he has no love. The blank second option in his test in the fourth game is evidence of this. Without love, he cannot see, or believe in magic.

resurgam40
Jul 22, 2007

Battler, the literal stupidest man on earth. Why are you even here, Battler, why did you come back to this place so you could fuck literally everything up?
And the feelings blossom up from me again. So there was more to the end of the third game that was let on. that was lost in the cackles of the witches and the lamentations of the hunters. There is so much emotion at play here... so much in both what Battler and Beatrice do and say.

:smith: What happened to you, Beatrice? Why would you hurt someone you have obvious feelings for; why is it so necessary that this game end with your death at Battler's hands that you would enter a Sisyphean contract to enact it? The motifs are everywhere in the story: loss, betrayal, tainted love... the implication is strong, but it seems that the greatest and last mystery is how they relate to you.

... And yeah, Kinzo sure did turn into a big gently caress-off dragon, didn't he. I'm pretty sure that the last bit in the Golden land (when Ange gave Sakurato to Maria) outlined the nature of magic: it's a metaphor for emotion, and what we see on the screen as fantasy is emotional metaphor, in which the physical reality of the world is reflected and altered by the emotional state of the characters.* That having been said... Beato's actions when the illusion is destroyed are interesting aren't they? She just says "thank you"... not that she loves him. In fact, it's not shown that the Beato we know engineered this game ever loved, or even cared that much about (beyond feeling vaguely sorry for him). Which virtually guarantees that she's not the Witch of the Portrait; she's someone pretending to be.

But let's see how this juicy ne red truth stacks up against my semi-coherent ramblings:

ProfessorProf posted:

"No, it was impossible for the culprit to obtain one. All of the master keys were under Rosa's control!"
"In that case, how do you explain George's disappearance from the guesthouse? I shall add to the red truth. George did not go down the stairs of the guesthouse. He flew out through the window!"

"Your greatest sword, this 18th person X, is based on the theory that Kinzo was already dead. I knew you would make that claim. That's why I took Kinzo out of his study. All members in the family conference welcomed that Kinzo, right? All of those who met at the family conference acknowledged the presence of Kinzo!"
"Then I'll counter with this. No person would mistake Ushiromiya Kinzo by sight. No matter what disguise might be used, they would not mistake Ushiromiya Kinzo by sight!"
"Then let me counter this way. Kinzo's life or death status is the same at the start of all four games. The setup was not different for the fourth game alone...!"



Surprisingly well, actually! Yeah, peas and CottonWolf aren't patting themselves on the back for leaning on Kinzo being and eschewing a 19th person, and neither am I: having a new challenger enter the fray at this late stage is not only an affront to the mystery genre but all known storytelling techniques- it's a lazy cheat that makes everything too easy-, and... well, it's not like any of us can smug it up about calling Kinzo being dead all along, as it was Battler that called that plot point first (I think? I don't remember it being a discussion until it was brought up...) We are incompetent :sweatdrop:

But with this new crop of red, it looks like the only refutation that's there is George not going down the stairs... meaning he had to jump, and someone (probably Nanjo, as I surmised) locked the window behind him. Of course, my theory regarding that mystery is still shaky, because the time frame is not established well: if Shannon lured George out concurrently with Krauss and Natsuhi being murdered, that would have meant Nanjo was helping Kanon kill them, and... I don't know I just don't like that. Maybe I'm still being suckered by Nanjo's image of a country doc that I think he wouldn't break "First do no harm,' even if he was in on the conspiracy to hide Kinzo's death**... but even if he would, he's an old guy and Kanon looks 90 pounds soaking wet, and Krauss, a man who apparently used to box, was killed along with his wife in the same room by strangulation. I could claim devils proof here, but after it's overuse, I'd feel too dirty.

Another problem I have, after reading Peas' hypothesis of the Fourth Game's mystery (which is the same essential idea as mine, even if I am skeptical that the group was taken to Kuwadorian at all; they didn't have that much time to go somewhere placed far away from the mansion, when it is infinitely more easy to just make the calls from the mansion) is that like he indicates, there is no reason for Genji to die on the first twilight... so if we were just told he died, it would give us five people to pull off the trick, instead of four, which makes everything easier for everybody. so let me alter my hypothesis for the trick: When the tests are given, Genji goes to Jessica's room and shoots her, after forcing her to make the call to Battler. This leaves Kanon to coerce and shoot Kyrie in the first floor parlor, and allows Shannon to shoot George in the Arbor while Nanjo drops off the keys and Kumasawa to prepare Krauss' body. Afterwards, Nanjo and Shannon meet by the well, kill easch other with guns, and Kumasawa collects the guns and leaves the stakes, dropping the guns off somewhere. Then Kumasawa meets Genji by the shed, and he shoots her, strings her up, and secures the shed with a key- (By the way, I knew the master key thing was stupid, but would you believe I didn't consider that the drat key in Gohda's pocket was switched with another- or just that the tag switched, until Peas brought it up? :doh: Freaking right there in front of my face...)and takes the gun with him when he goes, dropping it somewhere. And then Genji meets Maria in the dining room, poisons her, arranges the body, and then shoots himself, leaving Beato-Kanon to just come down ant take the gun and hide while Battler faffs around at the chapel. That's a theory I feel a lot stronger about : more of a juggling act than four people sprinting about.

*I think the last anime I saw that was so in your face about that was Revolutionary Girl Utena, an "action" series about a girl knight and her "princess" (also a girl) that was less about actual fighting and more about emotions and how they affect us... and how the world is changed when our feelings change.
** And he absolutely had to have been, as Kinzo's personal doc and good friend, who had to keep up the facade... funny thing: looking back, he does get awful shifty when talking about Kinzo and his health, didn't he? He usually just let Krauss or Natsuhi lead with something, and then backed him up...

e: drat! Battler, incompetence, yadah yadah yadah...

resurgam40 fucked around with this message at 18:38 on Mar 11, 2017

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?
You've got something in 'red' there that really shouldn't be in red, resurgam.

resurgam40
Jul 22, 2007

Battler, the literal stupidest man on earth. Why are you even here, Battler, why did you come back to this place so you could fuck literally everything up?

CottonWolf posted:

I tend to think that none of those events happened. Krauss and Natsuhi, claimed to see Kinzo in order to perpetuate the lie he was still alive. The Kinzo throwing Krauss around stuff was nothing more than Beatrice's exaggerations of the events to throw us off the scent and make us this magic is real.

Given that Ange talked to a whole bunch of characters that weren't actually there, I'm pretty sure there's a simpler explanation: memory. Kinzo being dead means that every other character he spoke with was the viewpoint for that conversation, and since they were supposed to be "talking" to Kinzo, they filled in the void of the actual dude with their memories of how he was. Thus Nanjo and Genji, who had the most positive relationship to Kinzo, see the Kinzo from their memories- Kinzo the chess player and Westaboo, maybe a little dramatic and mournful at times, maybe a little harsh with the kids, but a good friend to have. Krauss, however... sees nothing but his abuser, a cruel monster who throws him around and screams abuses and deprecation, the man who gave him no encouragement whatsoever but a slap in the face, because that's who his father was to him, in life and again in death. Natsuhi... well that's a little trickier, as I doubt the real Kinzo would have anything to do with her, but look at the circumstances surrounding that vision. She's just lost a bunch of her immediate family, including her husband, except for the horrible rear end in a top hat in-law who degrades her at every turn; she really needs a pep-talk now, so she just... created one. Kinzo might as well have been a sock puppet in that scene, telling her what she needs to hear at the moment. The dead are right useful that way, aren't they- they can pretty much say anything you like if you need them to.

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica
May I suggest you reread the Letter from a Summoner

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
Dropping the number to 17 only makes the solution easier. Thanks, Beato!

EagerSleeper
Feb 3, 2010

by R. Guyovich

quote:



I love the file names so much.


So each game for sure has a different murderer, eh? Certainly wasn't expecting Rosa to be the culprit for the first game. I'm glad that it seems that Krauss may indeed be the murderer for the fourth game, which sucks for Natsuhi to have your husband snap and kill you. Other than that, I'll be waiting excitedly for the next part to see more human explanations for what's been going on.

Alopex
May 31, 2012

This is the sleeve I have chosen.
These are some amazing theories and I am very impressed!

It's a shame they're all wrong and no goddamn good at all, since we've established that Beatrice and her magical minions did everyone in with witchcraft.

Fabulousvillain
May 2, 2015
I got nothing to add right now because I'm still laughing at Dragon Kinzo being a thing that happens and it's really the only thing that works for someone called Gold Warehouse, icing on the cake for me being Battler "killing" him with Unlimited Blue Works. That's the best pun I can make of that "attack" since for Battler his use of unlimited blue works, in theory.

Classy Hydra
Oct 30, 2011

You did wrong, Jack,
rest your soul.
All of you knew somewhere deep in your soul that Kinzo would eventually transform into a giant black dragon, don't kid yourselves. It's ingrained in our culture that such is the fate of overdramatic sorcerers in black cloaks who try to lock up young women. Magic is real and so are dragons.

EDIT: Also nobody's mentioned anything about dreamenddischarger, the best zts track, so I guess I will.

Classy Hydra fucked around with this message at 19:35 on Mar 11, 2017

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Classy Hydra posted:

All of you knew somewhere deep in your soul that Kinzo would eventually transform into a giant black dragon, don't kid yourselves. It's ingrained in our culture that such is the fate of overdramatic sorcerers in black cloaks who try to lock up young women. Magic is real and so are dragons.

Everyone knows dragons are just plain old non-magical lizards. Ergo, Kinzo being a dragon is evidence for an Icke-ian lizard-people theory, rather than magic.

The Ushiromiyas are actually the vanguard of an advanced alien lizard civilisation bend on abusing humanity for their own ends. The culprit (one of the servants) discovered this and upon taking control of a piece of their technology turned it against them to protect humanity from the alien menace. All of the apparent magic was actually the outcome of this alien technology, by Clarke's Third Law. The murders were therefore performed by humans (with alien technology).

Deny it in red!

Classy Hydra
Oct 30, 2011

You did wrong, Jack,
rest your soul.
I've wandered into the wrong side of the History channel.

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

CottonWolf posted:

Everyone knows dragons are just plain old non-magical lizards. Ergo, Kinzo being a dragon is evidence for an Icke-ian lizard-people theory, rather than magic.

The Ushiromiyas are actually the vanguard of an advanced alien lizard civilisation bend on abusing humanity for their own ends. The culprit (one of the servants) discovered this and upon taking control of a piece of their technology turned it against them to protect humanity from the alien menace. All of the apparent magic was actually the outcome of this alien technology, by Clarke's Third Law. The murders were therefore performed by humans (with alien technology).

Deny it in red!

I can't believe you just spoiled the premise of EP8, Spaceship of the Golden Witch

oath2order
Oct 12, 2013

It's MAGIC. I don't have to explain shit!


There are a lot of interesting moments and transitions that couldn't really be captured in the text, BTW. This video is pretty much mandatory.

Also just Dreamenddischarger is :krad:

resurgam40 posted:


Surprisingly well, actually! Yeah, peas and CottonWolf aren't patting themselves on the back for leaning on Kinzo being and eschewing a 19th person, and neither am I: having a new challenger enter the fray at this late stage is not only an affront to the mystery genre but all known storytelling techniques- it's a lazy cheat that makes everything too easy-, and... well, it's not like any of us can smug it up about calling Kinzo being dead all along, as it was Battler that called that plot point first (I think? I don't remember it being a discussion until it was brought up...) We are incompetent :sweatdrop:



Just for the record, no one in the thread proposed Dead Kinzo before Battler did. We were keeping track.

oath2order fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Mar 11, 2017

SystemLogoff
Feb 19, 2011

End Session?

oath2order posted:

There are a lot of interesting moments and transitions that couldn't really be captured in the text, BTW. This video is pretty much mandatory.

Also just Dreamenddischarger is :krad:




Just for the record, no one in the thread proposed Dead Kinzo before Battler did. We were keeping track.

I wish I could be part of witch chat, but I want to keep experiencing this with the thread.

It must be the smuggest tea-party in the world right now.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?

SystemLogoff posted:

It must be the smuggest tea-party in the world right now.

We're currently marveling at the "Beatrice is alien nanotech" theory and how surprisingly hard it is to red-counter.

  • Locked thread