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Which Thread Title shall we name this new thread?
This poll is closed.
Independence Day 2: Resturgeonce 44 21.36%
ScotPol - Unclustering this gently caress 19 9.22%
Trainspotting 2: Independence is my heroin 9 4.37%
Indyref II: Boris hosed a Dead Country 14 6.80%
ScotPol: Wings over Bullshit 8 3.88%
Independence 2: Cameron Lied, UK Died 24 11.65%
Scotpol IV: I Vow To Flee My Country 14 6.80%
ScotPol - A twice in a generation thread 17 8.25%
ScotPol - Where Everything's hosed Up and the Referendums Don't Matter 15 7.28%
ScotPol Thread: Dependence Referendum Incoming 2 0.97%
Indyref II: The Scottish Insturgeoncy 10 4.85%
ScotPol Thread: Act of European Union 5 2.43%
ScotPol - Like Game of Thrones only we wish we would all die 25 12.14%
Total: 206 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

CoolCab posted:

I mean I don't disagree but to put it another way: they would love to kick Scotland out but despise the idea of Scotland leaving. In large part because the SNP stick has been used to bash Labour for so long.

I can't agree with you on this: Brexit and English nationalism are intertwined.

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Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Pissflaps posted:

This doesn't add up.

If Scotland gains independence and joins the EU then it will be on the other side of this trade/customs trading barrier to the rest of the UK - which you've said will cause this 'much larger loss' in trade.

Speaking the same language won't make any difference.

You're ignoring the rest of the point.

To clarify, there are non-EU legal and trading practices that are common across the UK and Scotland, for example a lot of our legal and accounting standards are created by the same bodies. These standards still exist either side of the barrier and are unlikely to change, meaning trade between the two countries is more likely to be maintained. Basically teams that have a stronger mutual understanding of each other are more likely to be able to find wiggle room around problematic regulation than teams who lack that.

Further, much of the trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK is in goods that are relatively inelastic. In terms of manufacturing, it's incredibly unlikely that Land Rover for example will tank the sunk cost of moving all its Scottish parts factories because of slightly more difficult trade with the UK.

Even where trade is elastic, such as with insurance, unlike with Indyref1 Standard Life now has to weigh whether moving its HQ in Scotland to the UK will be worth it given it loses easy EU market access that way.

None of this is certain, but it's a reasonable argument to make and one that I feel mitigates economic uncertainty significantly.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames
What you're saying could have come from the mouth of a Leaver talking about UK trade with the EU.

If the effects of Scottish independence can be minimised then so can those for Brexit. If they can't be for Brexit, then the same problems apply for Scotland.

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

Yorkshire Tea posted:

You're ignoring the rest of the point.

To clarify, there are non-EU legal and trading practices that are common across the UK and Scotland, for example a lot of our legal and accounting standards are created by the same bodies. These standards still exist either side of the barrier and are unlikely to change, meaning trade between the two countries is more likely to be maintained. Basically teams that have a stronger mutual understanding of each other are more likely to be able to find wiggle room around problematic regulation than teams who lack that.

Further, much of the trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK is in goods that are relatively inelastic. In terms of manufacturing, it's incredibly unlikely that Land Rover for example will tank the sunk cost of moving all its Scottish parts factories because of slightly more difficult trade with the UK.

Even where trade is elastic, such as with insurance, unlike with Indyref1 Standard Life now has to weigh whether moving its HQ in Scotland to the UK will be worth it given it loses easy EU market access that way.

None of this is certain, but it's a reasonable argument to make and one that I feel mitigates economic uncertainty significantly.
If you think that an independent Scotland, lumbered as it is with a population that barely speaks any foreign languages and possibly with a hard border between it and the rest of the EU too, is going to have any trade advantage over anywhere else in the EU after independence, not being in the EU for a while, and then rejoining sometime later, you are a fantasist.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Pissflaps posted:

I can't agree with you on this: Brexit and English nationalism are intertwined.

I would say if you polled every right wing English nationalist sympathising paper's readership and asked "Should May allow another referendum" I doubt Yes would get double digits, and, likewise, if it was instead "Should May remove Scotland from the union" the second Yes would absolutely trounce the first.

Extreme0
Feb 28, 2013

I dance to the sweet tune of your failure so I'm never gonna stop fucking with you.

Continue to get confused and frustrated with me as I dance to your anger.

As I expect nothing more from ya you stupid runt!


This thread is gonna pickup it seems.

Pissflaps posted:

The UK is far more important market for Scotland than the EU is.




Why will leaving the EU cause a 'massive reduction' but leaving the UK is so minimal? Does this make sense to you?

I doubt it's very clear cut as that. I will expect trade to the rUK from Scotland will go down though when the UK loses it's market membership with the EU as lack of exporting goods from the UK towards EU member states will do damage towards companies/manufactures that Scotland trades with. I very much doubt that there are many major parts of the market that dosen't trade with EU member states.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Extreme0 posted:

I doubt it's very clear cut as that. I will expect trade to the rUK from Scotland will go down though when the UK loses it's market membership with the EU as lack of exporting goods from the UK towards EU member states will do damage towards companies/manufactures that Scotland trades with. I very much doubt that there are many major parts of the market that dosen't trade with EU member states.

It's your prerogative to doubt it but there is no escaping the fact that the UK is a much, much more important market for Scotland than the EU.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Pissflaps posted:

What you're saying could have come from the mouth of a Leaver talking about UK trade with the EU.

If the effects of Scottish independence can be minimised then so can those for Brexit. If they can't be for Brexit, then the same problems apply for Scotland.

This is really silly. The harms of leaving the EU can be mitigated by the UK, that's obvious. The extent to which they can be mitigated differ vastly to the Scottish example.

The rUK economy is significantly driven by financial markets in London, most of the companies there have facility to easily move headquarters to the EU if need be, largely because they already have regional headquarters sat in Dublin or Frankfurt. The advantage of doing so is significant as following Brexit it means retention of the European market which is big to them.

Contrast to Scotland. Scotland as a whole is not as biased towards financial services as rUK is. The inelastic businesses tend to be ones based around manufacturing that are unlikely to move.

So the initial impact on Scotland is lower due to their business mix. But even if we examine the MNC market, the question is whether retention of UK business is more important than retention of Scottish/EU business. Both you and I argued that MNCs would relocate out of the UK to retain EU market access post Brexit, so I'm confused about why they would do that under Brexit, but then wouldn't elect to stay in Scotland under an Indyref that gets EU access.

jBrereton posted:

If you think that an independent Scotland, lumbered as it is with a population that barely speaks any foreign languages and possibly with a hard border between it and the rest of the EU too, is going to have any trade advantage over anywhere else in the EU after independence, not being in the EU for a while, and then rejoining sometime later, you are a fantasist.

I'm literally not arguing about that at all. This is based on an assumption that they get into the EU quickly. If they don't, fair play they're screwed economically. The argument to me is whether being free from detrimental Tory policy is worth the risk.

Extreme0
Feb 28, 2013

I dance to the sweet tune of your failure so I'm never gonna stop fucking with you.

Continue to get confused and frustrated with me as I dance to your anger.

As I expect nothing more from ya you stupid runt!


Pissflaps posted:

It's your prerogative to doubt it but there is no escaping the fact that the UK is a much, much more important market for Scotland than the EU.

When did I doubt that the UK is an more important market?

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Yorkshire Tea posted:

This is really silly. The harms of leaving the EU can be mitigated by the UK, that's obvious. The extent to which they can be mitigated differ vastly to the Scottish example.

The rUK economy is significantly driven by financial markets in London, most of the companies there have facility to easily move headquarters to the EU if need be, largely because they already have regional headquarters sat in Dublin or Frankfurt. The advantage of doing so is significant as following Brexit it means retention of the European market which is big to them.

Contrast to Scotland. Scotland as a whole is not as biased towards financial services as rUK is. The inelastic businesses tend to be ones based around manufacturing that are unlikely to move.

So the initial impact on Scotland is lower due to their business mix. But even if we examine the MNC market, the question is whether retention of UK business is more important than retention of Scottish/EU business. Both you and I argued that MNCs would relocate out of the UK to retain EU market access post Brexit, so I'm confused about why they would do that under Brexit, but then wouldn't elect to stay in Scotland under an Indyref that gets EU access.

Finance is worth 8.9% of the UK's economy compared to 7.1% of Scotland's, hardly world's away from each other. In fact, the business mix of both is broadly the same:



Whether financial services and other multinational companies are motivated to move out of UK or not will depend on how the Brexit negotiations shake out, but I'm not sure how a one opting to leave the UK to go to, say, Germany or France, makes Scotland's overwhelming reliance on healthy trade with the UK any less true.

Pissflaps fucked around with this message at 16:50 on Mar 13, 2017

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames
I've mentioned this before but I'm fascinated by what the question would be if there is another referendum, and it seems others are asking the same question.

Obviously nationalists would prefer the Yes/No question, not only because it helps with their spin that it's the 'positive' choice, but changing it would mean new flags.

However the Electoral Commission decided that it wasn't appropriate for the EU referendum and could well decide the same for a second referendum.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Pissflaps posted:

Finance is worth 8.9% of the UK's economy compared to 7.1% of Scotland's, hardly world's away from each other. In fact, the business mix of both is broadly the same:



Whether financial services and other multinational companies are motivated to move out of UK or not will depend on how the Brexit negotiations shake out, but I'm not sure how a one opting to leave the UK to go to, say, Germany or France, makes Scotland's overwhelming reliance on healthy trade with the UK any less true.

Happy to concede that I'm wrong on business mix, I remember the percentages being more distinct, but that's probably due to being an old man. What divergence there is lends itself to my claim being somewhat credible.

I'm saying that it is unlikely that there will be business flight from Scotland in elastic sectors subsequent to independence if EU access is retained, significantly mitigating the ostensible harm that was proposed during Indyref1.

Absent business flight in the finance sector, Scotland retains good trade with the UK because the remaining businesses are inelastic.

Basically the reason I don't hate Scottish independence as much as I hate Brexit is that I'm pretty convinced that finance will say up yours to the City whereas I'm not convinced the Scottish financial sector will do the same.

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

Yorkshire Tea posted:

I'm saying that it is unlikely that there will be business flight from Scotland in elastic sectors subsequent to independence if EU access is retained, significantly mitigating the ostensible harm that was proposed during Indyref1.
But it won't be. Like that's an incredibly important part of this.

The referendum, if it is to be legally binding, will not be held until after Brexit is done. There's no way May wants the complications of negotiating brexit and scottish independence at the same time. And she decides when it's held. They can hold a referendum just for fun whenever they like, like the catalonians, but it's just that.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

jBrereton posted:

But it won't be. Like that's an incredibly important part of this.

The referendum, if it is to be legally binding, will not be held until after Brexit is done. There's no way May wants the complications of negotiating brexit and scottish independence at the same time. And she decides when it's held. They can hold a referendum just for fun whenever they like, like the catalonians, but it's just that.

So this is where things get interesting.

What if the Scots hold the ref, win and just say up yours to England? What the hell does the British parliament even do? Invade Scotland? Place trade sanctions on them?

Like these are obviously silly, but the situation is so loving bizarre.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Yorkshire Tea posted:

So this is where things get interesting.

What if the Scots hold the ref, win and just say up yours to England? What the hell does the British parliament even do? Invade Scotland? Place trade sanctions on them?

Like these are obviously silly, but the situation is so loving bizarre.

See: Catalonia

Only nationalists take part. Everyone else ignores the result.

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

Yorkshire Tea posted:

So this is where things get interesting.

What if the Scots hold the ref, win and just say up yours to England?
What a non binding referendum held before the end of brexit which the SNP push on with?

Massive capital flight to the many other economies in the world with better fundamentals than a maverick Scottish state with absolutely no state institutions, an aging population, and lovely education for the young there are.

Alertrelic
Apr 18, 2008

Surprised at the scale of this gamble from Sturgeon. UK Government completely outmaneuvered.

Looking forward to voting Yes again.

Niric
Jul 23, 2008

Larry Elliot in the guardian:The Scottish economy has strengths – but could it make a success of independence

Tldr: mebbes aye, mebbes no. Leans more towards no I'd say, but for all that it's a decent summary of some of the major issues to be considered, there's no real analysis or argument

quote:

A plunge in the oil price since the 2014 referendum and a budget deficit appear to make Scotland’s finances less than rosy

Convincing the Scottish people that they would be better off after independence proved beyond Alex Salmond in 2014. Project Fear failed to deliver for David Cameron in the EU referendum last June but it did the trick in Scotland 21 months earlier.

Nicola Sturgeon faces the same tough challenge. Indeed, constructing an economic case for independence looks harder now than it did three years ago. Harder but not impossible.

Scotland has some real economic strengths. It has a thriving financial sector, is strong in food and drink, attracts millions of tourists each year and has the potential to be a world leader in renewable energy.

True, Scotland has a small population but when it comes to economic success size doesn’t really matter. Norway, just across the North Sea, also has only just over 5 million citizens and has rather less economic diversity, but it is one of the richest nations in Europe.

Scotland’s first minister will also argue that her plan involves the best of all worlds: retaining free and unhindered access to the rest of the UK while also remaining part of the EU single market. US banks looking for a new home after Brexit might find Edinburgh attractive.

But the 2014 campaign threw up serious weaknesses in the economic case for independence and these will need to be addressed.


The most obvious issue is that the oil price has halved since the 2014 poll, making Scotland’s public finances after independence look far less rosy. To make the sums add up, those advocating independence assumed an oil price of $100 a barrel, double today’s level. According to estimates made last year by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Scotland will have a budget deficit of more than 9% of GDP this year, more than three times as big as that for the UK.

As the IFS noted, Scotland is insulated from the consequences of its spending being higher than its tax revenues because the UK government hands Edinburgh a block grant each year that covers non-devolved items such as defence and social security. An independent Scotland would be responsible for its own finances and could not rely on North Sea revenues to balance the books. There would be pressure for taxes to go up and for spending to be cut. All this at a time when the economy has been struggling. In the year to the third quarter of 2016, Scotland grew by 0.7%, well below the 2% recorded by the UK as a whole.

An ageing population means demands on the public finances are certain to increase in the years ahead, although an independent Scotland could mitigate these problems – in the short term at least – by adopting a more liberal approach to immigration than the rest of the UK.

Another key decision for Sturgeon is whether an independent Scotland should have its own currency, shadow the pound or – assuming it is allowed to become an EU member – sign up to join the euro. In 2014, Salmond said a post-independence Scotland would continue to use the pound sterling but his proposal ran into strong opposition from the UK government. Some supporters of leaving the UK said Salmond’s version of independence was not really independence at all.

Having its own currency and setting its own interest rates would make it easier for Scotland to adjust to gyrations in the oil price and to cope with its budget deficit. A crash in commodity prices – of the sort seen in 2014-15 – would result in borrowing costs being cut and the currency falling in value. Exports would become cheaper and foreign investors would be wooed by the prospect of being able to purchase assets more cheaply.

But as with the post-Brexit vote drop in sterling, this flexibility would not be cost free. Scottish voters would have to decide whether higher inflation and squeezed living standards were a price worth paying.

Niric fucked around with this message at 19:29 on Mar 13, 2017

Acaila
Jan 2, 2011



Ah, just think of it chaps, another 18 months to 2 years of Pissflaps telling us he has Scottish relations :) Happy new referendum debate everyone!

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Acaila posted:

Ah, just think of it chaps, another 18 months to 2 years of Pissflaps telling us he has Scottish relations :) Happy new referendum debate everyone!

And there's the first 'not Scottish enough' post. Congratulations.

Skinty McEdger
Mar 9, 2008

I have NEVER received the respect I deserve as the leader and founder of The Masterflock, the internet's largest and oldest Christopher Masterpiece fan group in all of history, and I DEMAND that changes. From now on, you will respect Skinty McEdger!

Not sure how I feel about this one yet. Looking forward to two years of all my friends being at each others throats again.

Niric
Jul 23, 2008

Acaila posted:

Ah, just think of it chaps, another 18 months to 2 years of Pissflaps telling us he has Scottish relations :)

What pissflaps does in his own time is his business

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


Pissflaps posted:

And there's the first 'not Scottish enough' post. Congratulations.

It's not that you're not Scottish enough, it's you claiming your granny or whoever the gently caress somehow makes your opinion more valid or worth listening to. Nevermind that it's the content of your posts during the last indy referendum that are why people don't actually think you're worth listening to on the topic.

But I'm sure someone will tell us that Pissflapping is valuable to stop an echo chamber or some such nonsense.

ReidRansom
Oct 25, 2004


Whichever way you may vote, good to see you guys may get another chance to decide your fate, given what you were dragged into.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

forkboy84 posted:

It's not that you're not Scottish enough, it's you claiming your granny or whoever the gently caress somehow makes your opinion more valid or worth listening to. Nevermind that it's the content of your posts during the last indy referendum that are why people don't actually think you're worth listening to on the topic.

No. I've never claimed having Scottish relatives makes my opinion more valid.

What has happened is that my Scottishness, or lack of, has been questioned several times in this thread. That's why you know I am part Scottish.

Considering 50% of your output is whining about my posts I think we'd all be grateful if you stopped reading and responding to my posts. The ignore function exists for a reason.

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

ReidRansom posted:

Whichever way you may vote, good to see you guys may get another chance to decide your fate, given what you were dragged into.
How many more times do you think they'll get a chance to decide their fate if this referendum fails?

Do you think they'll get a referendum to rejoin a few years in?

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames
Phone in on five live now. Lots of talk of 'remaining in the EU' from Yes voters.


That's why the earlier tweet about EU membership was important.

Coohoolin
Aug 5, 2012

Oor Coohoolie.
My body is ready and I've had Pissflaps on ignore for ages. I highly suggest you do the same.

ReidRansom
Oct 25, 2004


jBrereton posted:

How many more times do you think they'll get a chance to decide their fate if this referendum fails?

Do you think they'll get a referendum to rejoin a few years in?

Beats me. And I'm just a spectator anyway. But I'd say this is probably the last chance for some long time unless some other combination of unlikely poo poo happens in the future that causes the rest of the UK to devo leaving just England and Scotland.

EmptyVessel
Oct 30, 2012

big scary monsters posted:

No true Scotsman would stoop to violence over matters of petty tribalism.

:golfclap:

forkboy84 posted:

Best post in the thread imo. Any insult towards Edinburgh is a good post.
QED

Extreme0
Feb 28, 2013

I dance to the sweet tune of your failure so I'm never gonna stop fucking with you.

Continue to get confused and frustrated with me as I dance to your anger.

As I expect nothing more from ya you stupid runt!


It's pretty obvious that the currency question only has one answer now which is a new currency. Any other suggestion would be met with contradictions since the Euro can't be used for at least two years even if we somehow fully reached the convergence criteria when Scotland possibly joins the EU (Which would be around my guess 2022-2030) and the UK government will refuse any deal with the Sterling Pound so we would be left with our own currency which may be pegged or not.


Skinty McEdger posted:

Not sure how I feel about this one yet. Looking forward to two years of all my friends being at each others throats again.

Same

Extreme0 fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Mar 13, 2017

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Extreme0 posted:

It's pretty obvious that the currency question only has one answer now which is a new currency.

Turning everyone in Scotland with a mortgage, loan or savings into a currency speculator. Fascinating times.

Though you're right there is no other option.



Coohoolin posted:

My body is ready and I've had Pissflaps on ignore for ages. I highly suggest you do the same.

You're not supposed to post things that make it obvious you have read the post I just made.

Alertrelic
Apr 18, 2008

http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/15152631.SNP_raise___100_000_in_less_than_eight_hours_for_next_independence_fight/

£100,000 in less than eight hours. Is there anyone in this thread with strong opinions on pro-independence crowdfunding who can weigh in on this?

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


Alertrelic posted:

http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/15152631.SNP_raise___100_000_in_less_than_eight_hours_for_next_independence_fight/

£100,000 in less than eight hours. Is there anyone in this thread with strong opinions on pro-independence crowdfunding who can weigh in on this?

I miss when Evening Times sellers would just yell "EVENING TIMES, EVENING TIMES, GET YOUR EVENING TIMES" when I'd go visit Glasgow as a kid. Why did that ever stop?

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Alertrelic posted:

http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/15152631.SNP_raise___100_000_in_less_than_eight_hours_for_next_independence_fight/

£100,000 in less than eight hours. Is there anyone in this thread with strong opinions on pro-independence crowdfunding who can weigh in on this?

Looks like there's plenty of cash to be made off nationalism.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames
I wonder if EU citizens will be able to vote this time.

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

Pissflaps posted:

I wonder if EU citizens will be able to vote this time.

After Brexit I doubt any of them are feeling fuzzy warm feelings towards the UK as a whole.

I have just conducted a focus group of one French person and I can confirm they have flipped to independence.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Lord of the Llamas posted:

After Brexit I doubt any of them are feeling fuzzy warm feelings towards the UK as a whole.

I have just conducted a focus group of one French person and I can confirm they have flipped to independence.

Well, exactly.

It's unlikely any single EU citizen would vote No and it makes me wonder if they'd get a vote if there's another referendum.

Angepain
Jul 13, 2012

what keeps happening to my clothes
if scotland becomes independent will we still be legally able to make fun of pissflaps

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mehall
Aug 27, 2010


Angepain posted:

if scotland becomes independent will we still be legally able to make fun of pissflaps

I'd go so far to say it's a civic duty.

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