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You are glad that the status quo prevailed.
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Mar 16, 2017 11:43
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But without GL, they'll have to go with PvdA who are now a complete joke, or CU which will be very risky with a single set majority. I'd say GL holds some good cards now.
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Mar 16, 2017 11:45
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u brexit ukip it posted:But without GL, they'll have to go with PvdA who are now a complete joke, or CU which will be very risky with a single set majority. I'd say GL holds some good cards now. No, it's the opposite. Either they govern with VVD and get nothing done + are decimated next elections for executing neoliberal policy, or they are opposition as always and get nothing done. They're getting nothing done either way.
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Mar 16, 2017 11:55
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On the positive side it's cool to see a green party grow so much, and the PVV's 'defeat' is a nice blow to the narrative of a 'patriotic spring' around the EU
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Mar 16, 2017 11:56
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lollontee posted:You are glad that the status quo prevailed. compared to trump, yeah
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Mar 16, 2017 12:00
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PvdA would get on its knees in an instant if offered a position as a In the words of some old guy I spoke to yesterday; "good luck to the formateur".
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Mar 16, 2017 12:11
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Tweede Kamer 2017 (artist's rendering) edit: I made this just for laughs, profit from oil death, etc. twoday has issued a correction as of 12:52 on Mar 16, 2017 |
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Mar 16, 2017 12:43
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CU frontman Segers is going to huff and puff a bit about ''difficult negotiations'' and ''wanting to get some real points for their voters'', but really, he will work it out pretty fast with Rutte. D66 is happy to finally be able to govern again and will support this coalition in exchange for say the ministry of Education and perhaps Healthcare or so. They will be the one decimated the next elections because their voters are socially and culturally really progressive and will not be happy supporting a christian-conservative coalition.
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Mar 16, 2017 12:44
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Namarrgon posted:PvdA would get on its knees in an instant if offered a position as a VVD+CDA+D66+PvdA has a pretty strong majority in senate, I'm pretty sure this is how it's going to go but yeah, PvdA is pretty much like Reek from Game of Thrones now
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Mar 16, 2017 12:46
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Osmosisch posted:No, it's the opposite. Either they govern with VVD and get nothing done + are decimated next elections for executing neoliberal policy, or they are opposition as always and get nothing done. They're getting nothing done either way. At least in government you have a nonzero chance of getting something done, I'd argue. The neoliberal policy will be there either way. Might as well make sure it's a bit greener.
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Mar 16, 2017 13:38
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Forums Terrorist posted:compared to trump, yeah clinton would've been worse
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Mar 16, 2017 14:25
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lollontee posted:clinton would've been worse Bernie would have won tbh But jeb would have been the savior
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Mar 16, 2017 15:52
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a small part of me wanted to see another country fall to a nationalist right movement. i don't want the anglosphere to be alonelollontee posted:clinton would've been worse
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Mar 16, 2017 19:20
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lollontee posted:clinton would've been worse this is ur brain on bernie
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Mar 17, 2017 17:17
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I hate that trump destroyed the state department. So many almost made it into the foreign service if not for Trump's election and then they were denied.
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Mar 17, 2017 17:33
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Fallen Hamprince posted:this is ur brain on bernie Clinton being at the helm would have given the terrible things democrats do when in charge of foreign policy a veneer of acceptability. Foreign policy would still have been disgusting. At least people can fake being horrified when a republican is in charge. Whether Sanders would have been able to fight against the political inertia at state is another matter altogether.
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Mar 17, 2017 19:37
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how's france doing btw
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Mar 17, 2017 19:38
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get that OUT of my face posted:how's france doing btw its bad
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Mar 17, 2017 19:40
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The Brown Menace posted:its bad
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Mar 17, 2017 19:48
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get that OUT of my face posted:sorry to hear that, does it look like they're gonna fall to le pen There are stronger signs France goes LePen than there were Netherlands was going to go Wilders, and without some kind of major upset she's likely going to be in a second round against a neoliberal. Otoh the numbers still say she doesn't win the second round, and the first round should be a good litmus test to see if the polls are under/overrepresenting her support so we'll get a bit of warning if things are gonna go real bad, but even if she loses it's gonna be bad.
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Mar 17, 2017 21:49
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I think we need to put this in perspective. When you say bad, do you mean 'bad', or US bad?
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Mar 17, 2017 22:20
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If it's like Netherlands then France might have people voting for whoever seems most likely to defeat Le Pen
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Mar 17, 2017 22:52
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i hope le pen wins
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Mar 17, 2017 22:52
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Thatim posted:I think we need to put this in perspective. When you say bad, do you mean 'bad', or US bad?
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Mar 17, 2017 23:06
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Thatim posted:I think we need to put this in perspective. When you say bad, do you mean 'bad', or US bad? LePen has been playing the economic populist game the strongest of the far right populists so if she goes the route of "bringing back European welfare state but more racist" then I think she has a good chance of turning FN into a major political force in France for years to come. And if she loses, the likely winner is going to be either the scandal ridden Republican who is basically "FN only less pro-Vichy France" or the neoliberal Marcon, neither of which I'm convinced can combat the material conditions/forces that created the void FN is filling without just pandering to FN voters. So, she might not gently caress the French people as hard as Trump's loving Americans, but I can see her doing a lot to legitimize the far right nationalists as a solution to the economic anxieties of Europeans and even if she loses I fear the next election will be the same as this one only with LePen up ~5% more.
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Mar 18, 2017 00:42
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she's a literal fascist, but it's up to you to decide if that's better or worse than trump
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Mar 18, 2017 01:43
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Agnosticnixie posted:Clinton being at the helm would have given the terrible things democrats do when in charge of foreign policy a veneer of acceptability. Foreign policy would still have been disgusting. At least people can fake being horrified when a republican is in charge. lmao enjoy your tour in iran retard
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Mar 18, 2017 01:43
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get that OUT of my face posted:sorry to hear that, does it look like they're gonna fall to le pen France is looking better now than it did a month or two ago. At the time it looked like the second round would be Fillon vs Le Pen (Fillon being the hard-right candidate of Les Republicains, the French centre-right party). Since that time Fillon's campaign has imploded due to corruption scandals coming to the fore (he had given his wife a ghost job as a secretary where she did nothing while he was in government) and in spite of that has refused to drop out for someone else from his party to replace him. Meanwhile the PS primary has resulting in party-left Hamon receiving the PS nomination, and Macron, an independent neoliberal who used to be a PS minister up to a few years ago looks to be actually gathering enough votes to be winning the first round. So what looked to be a choice between the hard right and fascism is going to be between neoliberalism and fascism instead.
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Mar 18, 2017 02:27
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Party overview; https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3795723&userid=144674#post470251212 Dutch Elections; outcome So after a few days of drinking my sorrow away, it is time to show our foreign friends the results from the election last week. The good news; it is not worst case scenario. The bad news; we voted for the liberal status quo. So again, there are 150 seats in parliament. The government is determined by a coalition of parties that together have at least 76 seats, but they'll aim for more just to be on the safe side. There's also a senate, but we'll leave that out for simplicity. Coalition negotiation is a whole separate topic off itself and can last anywhere between a few days to a hundred days or more. Elections determined that there will be 13 parties with seats in parliament.  So to recap; the current exiting government is VVD-PvdA (liberal-labour). From the votes, it seems that any majority coalition is going to need at least 4 different parties, which is insane and an almost guarantee this government is not going to make it 4 years. So first things first, the Dutch Trump (Geert Wilders; PVV) did not become the largest party. This is great, because it means there is no negotiation pressure to give him an actual position in government. Apparently this was international news. Now if the PVV was of similar size as the VVD but slightly smaller, it is likely they would be invited by the VVD for talks. But as it stands, there are alternative choices here (CDA or D66) of similar size. In short; PVV will stay an opposition party and rant and rave about Muslims for at least another election cycle. Second, the PvdA was absolutely gutted. Traditionally, it has been one of the consistently larger parties in Dutch politics, together with VVD and CDA. The PvdA, as a labour party, is perceived to have given in too much to liberal VVD. They also had their internal civil war where they ditched charismatic handsome Samsom for who-is-that-again? Asscher. Currently at 9 seats following last week, this is the lowest they have ever been and there have already been resignation. Probably did not help that even old PvdA ministers went on tv saying they were definitely not voting PvdA. GroenLinks went through the opposite. They went from a large minor party to a decidedly medium-sized party and this is the largest they've ever been. Mostly thanks to their charismatic leader. Although VVD is (still) the largest, it has to be taken in relative terms; they lost nearly a quarter of their seats. Mark Rutte will still be prime minster of course, which means a broad continuation of neoliberal policy, minus anything the other coalition parties will be able to negotiate for. PvdD roughly doubled, although is still a minor party. Same for 50+. DENK is a newcomer. A split-off party from PvdA, they focus mostly on Turkish-Dutch citizens. Being so new, it is difficult to estimate how they will actually behave because as we know political rhetoric is extremely unreliable. At face value, their program is not bad at all, though they are criticized as a proxy-party for Turkey/Erdogan, as a majority of Dutch Turks are pro-Erdogan. Forum for Democracy (FvD) is a complete newcomer. Not a split-off as it the Dutch custom, but a result of an actual grassroots movement. It is unfortunate that they are alt-right redpillers. Not kidding. What now? Now we enter the tedious coalition negotiation process. Again; it seems there is no possible scenario with less than 4 parties, which is impractical at best. This is a vastly complex topic that encompasses leadership personalities, histories between the parties and ideologies that I won't go into in full detail, but just mention a few. The most likely coalition now seems to be VVD-CDA-D66-X, where X is either PvdA or CU (intense christians). VVD and CDA would be natural allies, as CDA has been strongly indicating a more right turn, though there are rumours of personality clashes between the parties. D66 is much more progressive than CDA, but it seems like the only realistic option if the goal is to exclude PVV from government. SP is not going to join the coalition for sure and it would seem unwise for GroenLinks to do so, unless they want to get gutted like PvdA was. On the contrary PvdA would almost certainly kiss the VVD's shiny shoes for the scraps of a near-irrelevant ministry or two. CU might be convinced as an alternative for some token concessions like the government opposing euthanasia for the elderly. I guess that means that we (the Dutch) will occasionally update this thread with major developments and when a government is finally formed. But it is not unrealistic the negotiations will last beyond the French elections at least, which is likely going to be the main focus of this thread. Namarrgon has issued a correction as of 12:25 on Mar 18, 2017 |
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Mar 18, 2017 12:11
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Namarrgon posted:So after a few days of drinking my sorrow away, it is time to show our foreign friends the results from the election last week. The good news; it is not worst case scenario. The bad news; we voted for the liberal status quo. Wilders and Trump, while horrible monsters, would have forced things to change.
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Mar 18, 2017 12:50
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lollontee posted:Wilders and Trump, while horrible monsters, would have forced things to change. Yes. This is why I consider the current results roughly third-worst-case-scenario. After a PVV majority and a VVD-PVV coalition, but far far from any positive change.
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Mar 18, 2017 12:55
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The rot is worse than the fire.
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Mar 18, 2017 13:30
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How do Dutch politics handle hung parliaments? Is there a chance government-formation negotiations will break down and repeat elections called within the year?lollontee posted:The rot is worse than the fire. Accelerationism is stupid, friend.
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Mar 18, 2017 14:45
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YF-23 posted:How do Dutch politics handle hung parliaments? Is there a chance government-formation negotiations will break down and repeat elections called within the year? Longest negotiation period has been 208 days since WW2, so there is a precedent for dragging it out. In the mean time the current government only has the mandate to continue current policy. There's also the possibility of a minority coalition, where the actual governing is done my parties that together have the minority in parliament, but can pass legislation by ad-hoc working with other parties on individual bills. This is about as stable as it sounds. I'm not sure how re-elections would go. It is definitely possible, but I don't know the exact precedent. I wouldn't expect that here though; it seems more likely we'll get a VVD-PVV-CDA-X cabinet that will last a year or two.
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Mar 18, 2017 15:03
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39314250 This'll have fun effects on the French elections  e: wrt Dutch coalitions, PvdA membership just overwhelmingly (80%) voted against any coalition with the VVD, making VVD-CDA-D66-CU/GL much more likely. vanity slug has issued a correction as of 16:27 on Mar 18, 2017 |
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Mar 18, 2017 16:19
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I still think a coalition with CU would be seen as too risky with just a one-seat majority. Every time something vaguely controversial came up there'd be dozens of MP's who might hold the government hostage.
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Mar 18, 2017 16:26
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u brexit ukip it posted:I still think a coalition with CU would be seen as too risky with just a one-seat majority. Every time something vaguely controversial came up there'd be dozens of MP's who might hold the government hostage. VVD/CDA would pretty much always be able to count on SGP support. More iffy with D66.
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Mar 18, 2017 16:29
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u brexit ukip it posted:I still think a coalition with CU would be seen as too risky with just a one-seat majority. Every time something vaguely controversial came up there'd be dozens of MP's who might hold the government hostage. While D66 might prefer GL, VVD and CDA will much prefer to work with CU. CU will be a lot easier to please seeing how small they are. Just dont do anything to make weed legal or euthanasia easier, give more money to defence (but vvd/cda want that too) and do some token effort to improve the amount of renewable energy we use (easy as we are pretty much at the bottom in Europe). D66 might complain about the euthanasia thing, but are spineless so they will fold in the end and Rutte knows that. D66 will get the ministry of Education and perhaps one of the ministry of Social Affairs, the ministry of Health or the ministry of Housing in exchange for not talking about euthanasia for a couple of years. VVD/CDA will want the ministries of Finance, Economic Affairs, Interior and Foreign affairs, as those are the most important ones.
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Mar 18, 2017 18:10
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If GroenLinks joins they might get the PvdA treatment next election cycle.
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Mar 18, 2017 18:13
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There is still the PvdA option. They really like being in government and it's not like they have anything to lose at this point.
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Mar 18, 2017 18:42
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