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It's cool how our collective ability to retire is determined by this poo poo, isn't it?
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Mar 21, 2017 21:10
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call to action posted:It's cool how our collective ability to retire is determined by this poo poo, isn't it? Its not a bug, its a feature!
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Mar 21, 2017 21:13
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OhFunny posted:Stocks had their worst day in 6 months. Looks like they may have snapped out of their Trump Dreams, but I guess we'll see what's what soon. So where's the Trump tweet taking credit for all this?
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Mar 21, 2017 21:13
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call to action posted:It's cool how our collective ability to retire is determined by this poo poo, isn't it? just take comfort in knowing you won't be retiring. that's an outdated concept from an old world
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Mar 21, 2017 21:14
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Oh right. The border tax is a go btw. Retail is already under heavy stress. This will probably push the bankruptcies forward. Border tax has become a 'given,' chief GOP tax writer says quote:A border adjustment tax will probably make an appearance in the final tax reform plan, the Republicans' chief tax writer in the House of Representatives, Rep. Kevin Brady, told CNBC on Tuesday.
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Mar 21, 2017 21:21
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I'm hearing anecdotally from sales guys on the bulk side that there is about a 50% chance China "slams the door" on grain in retaliation if it happens. Have heard the same about Mexico.
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Mar 22, 2017 01:54
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do you want a trade war pay twice as much for goods once more
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Mar 22, 2017 02:07
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BrandorKP posted:I'm hearing anecdotally from sales guys on the bulk side that there is about a 50% chance China "slams the door" on grain in retaliation if it happens. Have heard the same about Mexico. I'd say with Mexico that's more than an anecdote. The plans are being laid already. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-22/mexican-companies-craft-plan-to-sidestep-u-s-grain-imports quote:One of Mexico’s largest business groups is working on a bargaining chip ahead of talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement: finding alternatives to the U.S. for grain imports. quote:Switching suppliers isn’t as easy as flipping a switch. Mexico depends heavily on rail for imports from the U.S. and Canada, which wouldn’t work for goods from South America. But Mexico’s ports could handle imports from the south, and the benefits would outweigh the costs, Castanon said.
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Mar 22, 2017 03:28
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Well, I'd say that when your biggest trading partner threatens to bankrupt you unless you pay for their border wall, it's a good sign that you should look for other trading partners who won't bully you around on a whim.
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Mar 22, 2017 04:24
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Can anyone else in the world even pick up the slack off the sheer volume of food exports that the United States produces? I was under the impression that the US was one of the few countries that had a huge surplus of food.
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Mar 22, 2017 08:01
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OhFunny posted:I'd say with Mexico that's more than an anecdote. The plans are being laid already. This is sad. Mexico used to be able to provide its own corn till nafta. Our subsidized corn was too cheap and drove Mexican growers out of business
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Mar 22, 2017 13:32
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I can understand trading for art, and food that can be grown better in another clime, but I do not understand leaving your country beholden to others for military hardware or general necessities
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Mar 22, 2017 13:35
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Stocks are continuing to drop today. Are we seeing the start of the crash or is it too soon to tell?
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Mar 22, 2017 15:00
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Grouchio posted:Stocks are continuing to drop today. Are we seeing the start of the crash or is it too soon to tell? This seems like it's just an adjustment. There's no panic that's driving this- rather many people made certain assumptions about the economy thinking they were getting a standard republican rubber stamping policy at the top. That consensus no longer seems to be correct so the markets are reacting to that.
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Mar 22, 2017 15:07
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Alternatively, yes absolutely SELL SELL SELL. (that's a hilarious broad question and if anyone had the oracular power requisite to answer it in equally simple terms I hope they wouldn't be posting on a dead gay comedy forum about it)
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Mar 22, 2017 15:23
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Grouchio posted:Stocks are continuing to drop today. Are we seeing the start of the crash or is it too soon to tell? I hope you've been selling on the way up (via asset rebalancing). Feel free to buy on the way down once a quarter or so, also via asset rebalancing.
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Mar 22, 2017 16:01
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God dammit, should have taken my own advice and sold a week or two ago
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Mar 22, 2017 16:05
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I really am curious as to what point in this apocalypse scenario politicians start weighing "country doesn't collapse into utter turmoil and chaos" and "get to go golfing with the 62 billionaires causing this mess" and err towards the former. I mean, dont take this as a FYADesque call for assassination, but at some point a governor has to be pretty drat spooked that the liberal economy has resulted in simple army rifles being available to the deteriorating public billions for less than $200. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Mar 22, 2017 |
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Mar 22, 2017 16:22
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They're betting the farm on police, security, and surveillance. Doesn't seem like a bad plan when half the country is too fat or sick to fight and the other half mostly all hates each other.
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Mar 22, 2017 17:07
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Neurolimal posted:I really am curious as to what point in this apocalypse scenario politicians start weighing "country doesn't collapse into utter turmoil and chaos" and "get to go golfing with the 62 billionaires causing this mess" and err towards the former. Collapse in and of itself doesn't produce political violence, as a cursory survey of the situation in formerly prosperous south american countries such as argentina or venezuela demonstrates. There needs to be both ideological and organizational support to challenge the ruling elites, and until that starts showing up there will be plenty of billionaires perfectly happy to rule squalid slums from their gated communities. Right now the people most affected by late capitalism aren't organizing in any way that would suggest any threat from outside the existing political system.
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Mar 22, 2017 17:08
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Zyklon B Zombie posted:Can anyone else in the world even pick up the slack off the sheer volume of food exports that the United States produces? I was under the impression that the US was one of the few countries that had a huge surplus of food. Let me tell you about food deserts
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Mar 22, 2017 17:32
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Let me tell you about food deserts Access != production
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Mar 22, 2017 17:42
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Zyklon B Zombie posted:Can anyone else in the world even pick up the slack off the sheer volume of food exports that the United States produces? I was under the impression that the US was one of the few countries that had a huge surplus of food. When it comes to corn the answer is no. The US exports more than 2.5x the amount than the 2nd largest exporter.
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Mar 22, 2017 19:34
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Double posting, but subprime credit losses in the auto loan market are worsening. http://www.businessinsider.com/fitch-on-auto-loan-market-2017-3/#the-subprime-auto-loan-delinquency-rate-is-moving-higher-1 http://www.businessinsider.com/mizuho-on-subprime-auto-lending-conditions-2017-3 http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ford-stock-price-march-20-2017-3-1001851020 Ford looks to be very exposed due to it's high levels of financing. quote:The number of Americans who have stopped paying their car loans appears to be increasing — a development that has the potential to send ripple effects through the US economy. quote:The 60+ day delinquency rate for subprime is closing in on the 6% mark, and is the highest in at least seven years. quote:"The data suggest some notable deterioration in the performance of subprime auto loans," Fed researchers said in a post. "This translates into a large number of households, with roughly six million individuals at least ninety days late on their auto loan payments."
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Mar 22, 2017 21:04
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OhFunny posted:Double posting, but subprime credit losses in the auto loan market are worsening. Yep it was only a matter of time until the bubble bursts. From subprime mortgages to subprime auto loans. I can tell you as a consumer Ford had some pretty great financing options and I almost bought a car, but I take public transportation to commute so what's the point.
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Mar 22, 2017 21:26
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gonna be nice, all these bubbles popping with an idiot like trump at the help trying to pass a border tax
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Mar 22, 2017 21:59
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::finger hovers over the Sell button on his retirement funds::
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Mar 22, 2017 22:01
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what are the odds that if ford is toppled by risky lending, they'll get bailed out
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Mar 22, 2017 22:05
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I don't think we're looking at a 2008-level crisis because of it, but a subprime auto loan crash still scares me. It's bad for all the obvious reasons, but car manufacturers absolutely depend on credit being available to sell cars. It's going to be completely brutal if the bottom drops out of that market.
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Mar 22, 2017 22:07
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It would be poetic justice for all the blue collar folks who voted for Trump in the rust belt, really.
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Mar 22, 2017 22:09
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Rated PG-34 posted:what are the odds that if ford is toppled by risky lending, they'll get bailed out They're not going to get toppled, because cash is available for the company to do corporate debt. The automakers got in trouble before because of a liquidity crunch, and right now corporate lending is still easy.
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Mar 22, 2017 22:10
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Zeno-25 posted:It would be poetic justice for all the blue collar folks who voted for Trump in the rust belt, really. Not really. They already don't have jobs. The only way to make life in the Rust Belt worse would be to enact harsher drug laws, cut welfare, and end free lunch programs. Oh wait...
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Mar 23, 2017 02:07
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Rated PG-34 posted:what are the odds that if ford is toppled by risky lending, they'll get bailed out 100%. Any of the Big Three going under would a massive blow to the economy. They are to big to fail. Twerk from Home posted:They're not going to get toppled, because cash is available for the company to do corporate debt. The automakers got in trouble before because of a liquidity crunch, and right now corporate lending is still easy. You are probably right, but it's another sign that this economic expansion is nearing its end.
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Mar 23, 2017 02:47
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Zyklon B Zombie posted:Can anyone else in the world even pick up the slack off the sheer volume of food exports that the United States produces? I was under the impression that the US was one of the few countries that had a huge surplus of food. In any given year there is a drought, fire, flooding of farms somewhere, and sometimes it happens here. What happens is that grain from previous years in stocks goes onto market. Often it is of lower quality even if it is of the same grade. For short periods this works pretty well. For long periods... well I don't really know
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Mar 23, 2017 04:58
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So I was going through the old (2012) NIC 2030 alternate worlds estimate. https://globaltrends2030.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/global-trends-2030-november2012.pdf I was doing this to use the "potential worlds" to make some projections for a grad school class. Any way up at the front it had some "black swan" events that could potentially severely gently caress up the world. I'm not feeling good about a bunch: Much More Rapid Climate Change Euro/EU Collapse US Disengagement I think we are in for worse than a normal recession: "Stalled Engines is nevertheless a bleak future. Drivers behind such an outcome would be a US and Europe that turn inward, no longer interested in sustaining their global leadership. Under this scenario, the euro zone unravels quickly, causing Europe to be mired in recession. The US energy revolution fails to materialize, dimming prospects for an economic recovery. In the modeling which McKinsey Company did for us for this scenario, global economic growth falters and all players do relatively poorly."
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Mar 23, 2017 05:09
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BrandorKP posted:Much More Rapid Climate Change I doubt, personally, the US is going to disengage. You don't increase your army massively to, then, not use it. I agree with you we are in for more than a recession. I think we are facing extinction.
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Mar 23, 2017 14:45
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On the bright (what is that again?) side, a correction in the subprime auto market may unfuck the used auto market.
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Mar 23, 2017 14:49
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LorneReams posted:On the bright (what is that again?) side, a correction in the subprime auto market may unfuck the used auto market. Gonna make it super easy for my wife and I to buy our dream van, though.
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Mar 23, 2017 16:23
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anonumos posted:Gonna make it super easy for my wife and I to buy our dream van, though. You goin with wizard on the side or on the hood? I hear the new hotness is tiger or Amazon babe too.
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Mar 23, 2017 16:34
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LorneReams posted:On the bright (what is that again?) side, a correction in the subprime auto market may unfuck the used auto market. Isn't this all part of the same problem? My understanding of the situation is that hyperaggressive new car financing is creating a glut of used cars, which in turn is tanking prices and biting financing companies in the rear end. The auto market in general seems exceptionally hosed at the moment thanks to manufacturers pulling out all the stops to build unsustainable demand.
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Mar 23, 2017 18:41
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