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There are an increasing amount of moderate "no" votes today. https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/844915414664724481 https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/844913164760371200 (the last tweet is wrong: Massie is in the Freedom Caucus)
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Mar 23, 2017 15:17
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So is there an updated count of No and Leaning No votes? Edit: haha great timing. So how many Nos are coming from the Freedom Caucus?
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Mar 23, 2017 15:18
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So if it dies today, Obamacare survives until at least 2019, right?
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Mar 23, 2017 15:19
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EugeneJ posted:So if it dies today, Obamacare survives until at least 2019, right? Nothing dies today. Plus we don't even know what bill is getting voted on today! They repealed the rule preventing them from putting a bill on the floor and voting on it the same day!
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Mar 23, 2017 15:21
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evilweasel posted:Nothing dies today. Plus we don't even know what bill is getting voted on today! They repealed the rule preventing them from putting a bill on the floor and voting on it the same day! Doesn't that make it more likely that the No votes will stay No since they can't be sure that they got any changes they wanted?
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Mar 23, 2017 15:21
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Doesn't that make it more likely that the No votes will stay No since they won't be convinced that they got any changes they wanted? No. Any changes will be the result of a specific deal struck with a group of no voters in exchange for their promise to vote yes. They'll have signed off on the specific changes so they will be the only ones voting who really understand them (and the Freedom Caucus isn't taking "we'll have the Senate do that", they want the changes in the House bill) and will have decided they believe they got what they want. Where it gets iffy is the effect on "moderate" Yes votes. On the one hand, anything that gets the Freedom Caucus on board loses votes from them - that's why Ryan initially told the Freedom Caucus to go gently caress itself and made changes for the moderate wing. But on the other hand, they may not fully understand any changes before they vote yes so they may realize the next day whoops, Ryan didn't tell them all the details. Moderates have been flipping to No since he told them the details of the plan to gut essential coverage to get the Freedom Caucus back on board though so hopefully they realize what it means.
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Mar 23, 2017 15:25
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Here's what the GOP has in mind for the future of health insurance in America: https://twitter.com/alaniabramowitz/status/844913630302822401 Scams! Scams as far as the eye can see!
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Mar 23, 2017 15:26
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EugeneJ posted:So if it dies today, Obamacare survives until at least 2019, right? Nothing stopping them from repeating this process, either; awful lot of year left to take another shot at it. Well, Paul Ryan's pride, maybe.
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Mar 23, 2017 15:26
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More confirmation that 11:30 is zero hour: https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/844917224204914688
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Mar 23, 2017 15:27
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Trump is going to fall on his face so hard if everything hinges on his "deal making skills."
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Mar 23, 2017 15:29
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When some freedom caucus members start dropping of polonium poisoning in a few weeks, I bet the rest will fall into line.
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Mar 23, 2017 15:30
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Rhesus Pieces posted:The Market! The Market as far as the eye can see!
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Mar 23, 2017 15:31
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Ze Pollack posted:Nothing stopping them from repeating this process, either; awful lot of year left to take another shot at it. I disagree: there's nothing that will change between now and 2018 that would flip votes to "yes" that won't flip now. By making a big, final deadline you force people to put up or shut up. If they still vote no on this, after all your arm-twisting and all the urgency of saying this bill will pass - meaning it's a crippling defeat if it doesn't - you're not changing your vote later. I made fun of their legislative calendar earlier being set on a completely stupid anniversary but at the end of the day it's not crazy to just set a date and loudly say this is it. They're not going to get a bill that will hold up to public scrutiny and get 218 happy votes in favor. They're only getting this through by ramming it through and daring members to actually vote no after years of running on repeal. Negotiations have failed, and the only card left is to hope someone's bluffing. If they're not bluffing, then you just can't get to a majority.
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Mar 23, 2017 15:31
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Trump is going to fall on his face so hard if everything hinges on his "deal making skills." It's not completely crazy, because the one thing Trump is indisputably good at is being good with people. He doesn't know poo poo about policy but he does know how to work people. Issue is, he's lazy and he does not fully understand the issues here so he doesn't know what deals he can make and what the pressure points are. So it's going to be his natural ability to work with people clashing with his inability to actually work out the details here. A lot is riding on which is more important, the schmoozing or the details.
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Mar 23, 2017 15:33
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More evidence that the dynamic of "you can't please both the moderates and the Freedom Caucus" is still playing out with a shortened timeframe. I assume the last-ditch plan was to try to give the Freedom Caucus what they wanted and hope the moderates wouldn't have enough time to rebel, but that doesn't seem to be the case. https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/844917848136994816
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Mar 23, 2017 15:35
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Ze Pollack posted:Nothing stopping them from repeating this process, either; awful lot of year left to take another shot at it. I thought they could only do a budget reconciliation bill once per year and anything else they try this year would need 60 in the senate. Am I wrong here?
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Mar 23, 2017 15:36
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evilweasel posted:Nothing dies today. Plus we don't even know what bill is getting voted on today! They repealed the rule preventing them from putting a bill on the floor and voting on it the same day! what Edit: oh I understand. Repeal and replace that "what"
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Mar 23, 2017 15:37
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Rhesus Pieces posted:I thought they could only do a budget reconciliation bill once per year and anything else they try this year would need 60 in the senate. Am I wrong here? Its not clear (and nobody seems to know the answer) if a reconciliation bill failing in the House means they can't try another one. So, like, if this goes down in flames, maybe they can do their tax cuts with this year's reconciliation bill instead of next year's. But that depends on the details of how it works and I suspect the only people who know the answer are aides to leadership in the House and Senate.
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Mar 23, 2017 15:39
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mdemone posted:what Normally there are rules that give the House time to read the bill after it gets out of committee. They suspended those rules for this bill. There may only be an hour or two after the bill leaves committee until it gets voted on.
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Mar 23, 2017 15:39
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evilweasel posted:More confirmation that 11:30 is zero hour: It's a clear setup to illustrate Trump's ability to make deals. The bill is going to pass with votes to spare, pass in the Senate, and the House will accept the Senate's tweaks. I think it was Trump who said this is it when it comes to healthcare, and for once he was speaking the truth. The desire to do something on Obamacare, even if they find the replacement odious, is going to win out.
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Mar 23, 2017 15:41
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Xae posted:Normally there are rules that give the House time to read the bill after it gets out of committee. They suspended those rules for this bill. There really aren't even words for how dumb as hell these people are.
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Mar 23, 2017 15:41
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mdemone posted:There really aren't even words for how dumb as hell these people are. The CBO score will blow up whatever moderate support is left, cause it's going to be a terrible, terrible idea, so they have to try to ram it through before that can happen.
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Mar 23, 2017 15:44
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TyrantWD posted:It's a clear setup to illustrate Trump's ability to make deals. The current mess is making house leadership look like loving idiots and they care more about their image than they care about Trump's.
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Mar 23, 2017 15:44
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evilweasel posted:The CBO score will blow up whatever moderate support is left, cause it's going to be a terrible, terrible idea, so they have to try to ram it through before that can happen. Wasn't that supposed to come out last night? Are they fixing margins and typos? Is everything held together on the Hill right now with spit and baling twine?
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Mar 23, 2017 15:45
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mdemone posted:Wasn't that supposed to come out last night? Are they fixing margins and typos? Is everything held together on the Hill right now with spit and baling twine? CBO can't score whatever deal they're working on with the Freedom Caucus because it's not even done, and they'll try to ram it through well before the CBO can score that new monstrosity. They are planning on amending the bill itself now, not saying the Senate will do that. So any CBO score from last night will be outdated because it's clear that's not the bill that will pass. Specifically the potential agreement with the Freedom Caucasus is likely to explode spending because a cottage industry of scam insurance will be set up to take the subsidies that are too small for real insurance, meaning that the subsidies get used much more than they otherwise would (because they're too small for poor people to use on real insurance).
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Mar 23, 2017 15:46
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repealing the EHB will get the freedom caucus on boa... https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/844764546698924032 uh oh (he probably wants the pre-existing conditions part dropped too. you know, to help the sickest.)
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Mar 23, 2017 16:00
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Rhesus Pieces posted:I thought they could only do a budget reconciliation bill once per year and anything else they try this year would need 60 in the senate. Am I wrong here? They can only pass one budget reconciliation bill. If they want to spend the rest of the year failing to pass this one, that would be okay by me, mind.
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Mar 23, 2017 16:00
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evilweasel posted:repealing the EHB will get the freedom caucus on boa... Does this dude speak for the Freedom Caucus?
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Mar 23, 2017 16:05
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Ze Pollack posted:They can only pass one budget reconciliation bill. If they want to spend the rest of the year failing to pass this one, that would be okay by me, mind. They can only pass one. The question is, if they fail to pass one, can they do a different one or did they lose it.
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Mar 23, 2017 16:05
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Does this dude speak for the Freedom Caucus? No, but he's a major member of it. The Freedom Caucus doesn't have the 95% or whatever support they need to act as a bloc on any plan so they're voting individually. Meadows has been speaking for most of the hold-outs however and has been most positive about gutting EHB in exchange for votes from the Freedom Caucus, but given the moderate defections the amount of votes he has to deliver keeps going up. If he can't deliver most of the 25+ holdouts, that's game over. Amash not being on board with his plan makes that more likely, but not anything close to certain. evilweasel fucked around with this message at 16:10 on Mar 23, 2017 |
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Mar 23, 2017 16:07
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evilweasel posted:CBO can't score whatever deal they're working on with the Freedom Caucus because it's not even done, and they'll try to ram it through well before the CBO can score that new monstrosity. They are planning on amending the bill itself now, not saying the Senate will do that. So any CBO score from last night will be outdated because it's clear that's not the bill that will pass. can't wait to use my $350 subsidy to get free medical marijuana or maybe acupuncture, but everything else is full price
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Mar 23, 2017 16:10
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https://twitter.com/mikedebonis/status/844929218110742529
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Mar 23, 2017 16:10
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empty whippet box posted:can't wait to use my $350 subsidy to get free medical marijuana or maybe acupuncture, but everything else is full price I can see it now, nonstop scam insurance commercials on daytime tv, advertising coverage for woo woo bullshit like aromatherapy, cupping and herbal remedies, wedged between ads for DeVry and Full Sail University. What's the logic here? Is he taking a harder position knowing full well it won't be met just as cover to vote down what's being offered?
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Mar 23, 2017 16:28
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So the meeting of the damned should be starting any moment now yes?
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Mar 23, 2017 16:33
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Rhesus Pieces posted:What's the logic here? Is he taking a harder position knowing full well it won't be met just as cover to vote down what's being offered? Might just be being loony, Yoho was one of the guys talking about how great a default on the national debt would be. But right now both sides are still posturing to pressure the other. Compare https://twitter.com/costareports/status/844932889313759232 https://twitter.com/costareports/status/844933109493776385 with this https://twitter.com/mikedebonis/status/844929646613401602
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Mar 23, 2017 16:34
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So am I dead yet, someone said something about 1130 east coast time.
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Mar 23, 2017 16:37
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Rhesus Pieces posted:I can see it now, nonstop scam insurance commercials on daytime tv, advertising coverage for woo woo bullshit like aromatherapy, cupping and herbal remedies, wedged between ads for DeVry and Full Sail University. My suspicion is that a decent amount of conservative defectors want to vote against it because it will harm their constituents but politically need to attack it from the right. Rand Paul would seem to be the most obvious example. In Yoho's case, Florida isn't a Medicaid expansion state, but the logic could still apply.
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Mar 23, 2017 16:39
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Mar 23, 2017 17:13
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So is this meeting going on or not?
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Mar 23, 2017 17:14
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:So is this meeting going on or not? The meeting is occurring now, yes. Started at 11:30, likely going until there's either a deal or they give up on a deal.
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Mar 23, 2017 17:16
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