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evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

evilweasel posted:

i go to meetings for 2 hours and the cbo tells the house they're spending almost $200b extra to cover zero additional people

my sides

IT GETS BETTER

quote:

The fresh analysis suggests that the amendments would not affect the number of Americans who would be uninsured if the bill were to become law. Nor would the amendments make much difference to the cost of health plans.
...
The analysis also showed that the revised bill would not fix the 15 to 20 percent increase in premiums in 2018 and 2019 estimated in the CBO score of the first bill.

http://www.vox.com/2017/3/23/15042460/cbo-revised-estimate-ahca

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Craig K
Nov 10, 2016

puck
i legitimately don't know who the gently caress this bill as is WOULDNT royally piss off

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

Craig K posted:

i legitimately don't know who the gently caress this bill as is WOULDNT royally piss off

Tom Price

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

Craig K posted:

i legitimately don't know who the gently caress this bill as is WOULDNT royally piss off

Very wealthy old people.

...that appears to be the list, in its entirety.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Craig K posted:

i legitimately don't know who the gently caress this bill as is WOULDNT royally piss off

Trump. He'd brag about literally anything passing at this point.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

evilweasel posted:

i go to meetings for 2 hours and the cbo tells the house they're spending almost $200b extra to cover zero additional people

my sides

How does that even happen.

mdemone
Mar 14, 2001

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
So CNN is saying that there are 26 Nos and 4 Leaning No. What happened to the 37 from earlier?

edit: weird, Washington Post on their main page is saying 35 No and 16 Leaning No. That's a pretty large differential between the two sites. What's up with that?

Shimrra Jamaane fucked around with this message at 23:36 on Mar 23, 2017

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

BEHOLD

https://twitter.com/mikedebonis/status/845035876233199618

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

So CNN is saying that there are 26 Nos. What happened to the 37 from earlier?

There's two ways of getting numbers:

1) Adding up every "I won't vote for this bill" statement that hasn't been retracted
2) Leaks from internal whip counts or other internal estimates

Most media counts are #1, and that can be wrong when someone has privately told leadership they'll vote yes but not made it public. It can also vary on what they consider definitive, or too old.

#2 can be self-serving leaks and aren't verifiable (and may vary on how firmly they need someone to be before saying they're a "no").

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

evilweasel posted:

There's two ways of getting numbers:

1) Adding up every "I won't vote for this bill" statement that hasn't been retracted
2) Leaks from internal whip counts or other internal estimates

Most media counts are #1, and that can be wrong when someone has privately told leadership they'll vote yes but not made it public. It can also vary on what they consider definitive, or too old.

#2 can be self-serving leaks and aren't verifiable (and may vary on how firmly they need someone to be before saying they're a "no").

So is it safe to say that The Truth... is Somewhere in the Middle?

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

So is it safe to say that The Truth... is Somewhere in the Middle?

well, truth is north of 22 nos :v:

and, Greg Sargent pointed out that there's still 22 uncommitted "moderates", which makes it real easy for any HFC deal to make a whole bunch of new "no" votes show up:

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/845043327879843840

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

https://twitter.com/swin24/status/845043092713590784

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

i would pay good money to watch this meeting:

https://twitter.com/mikedebonis/status/845043231087734784

(tuesday group is the "moderates")

eviltastic
Feb 8, 2004

Fan of Britches
lol, chaos reigns

evilweasel posted:

i would pay good money to watch this meeting:

Interesting. Pearce was leaning 'no'.

The Phlegmatist
Nov 24, 2003

It'd be interesting to see removal of rating restrictions combined with allowing insurers to sell over state lines, since states were the bulwark against price discrimination.

And by interesting I mean "if you are 50+, morbidly obese and have Type II Diabetes then forget ever affording health insurance"

Sir Kodiak
May 14, 2007


evilweasel posted:

i would pay good money to watch this meeting:

I'd seriously worry about my finances if there were a pay per view for congressional negotiations.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

So something I just read that I think is on point: the offer to the HFC that they'd gut the essential health benefits clearly backfired, and hard. But it's not just the HFC being crazy and moving the goalposts: that they could get that offer in the first place meant Ryan had been lying to them,* and its realizing that that's blown things up again.

A lot of the "repeal" they want, they've been told can't be done because of Senate rules. They don't believe that - and now, at the last minute, Trump and Ryan capitulated and told them that they actually could do away with some of the rules and get it past the Senate parliamentarian. But the thing is, now they ask "well, what about those other rules you told us you totally want to repeal, but just couldn't?" They are starting to realize - not without justification - that Ryan has been tricking them: that some of the things they want and have been told no, you can't have that because our hands are tied are actually because Republican leadership knows there just aren't the votes for (or would be even more of an unmitigated political disaster). So they'd been agreeing fine, we won't add that in...but now that they can change some rules, that no longer applies.

So now they're demanding all those other things they'd been convinced they couldn't have because of Senate rules, and now believe (rightly or wrongly) are actually on the table. And leadership knows there is absolutely no way to get a repeal of the pre-existing conditions ban through even the House. But they can't put the genie back in the bottle and fall back on reconciliation rules.


*either before, when he said abolishing EHB couldn't be done through reconciliation, or now, when he says they can.

evilweasel fucked around with this message at 23:57 on Mar 23, 2017

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

oh look ryan is now trying to stuff that genie back in the bottle, that's surely not going to make the HFC vote as a bloc against this:

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/845045291233501185

eviltastic
Feb 8, 2004

Fan of Britches
Ryan must have also badly miscalculated how far he can push moderates, then.

e: Or, they're getting enough cover from the effort to blame the Freedom Caucus that they're feeling more safe than before in defying Ryan.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

lol

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/845047147275931649

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

eviltastic posted:

Ryan must have also badly miscalculated how far he can push moderates, then.

Yeah. I think he must have just assumed he could ram it through before they looked up what EHB meant.

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Old Kentucky Shark posted:

Look at my user name. Guess how many CDL licenses I have in my family. Guess.

Statistically, truck drivers are probably healthier than goons, who don't have to pass yearly physicals just to keep their jobs. You don't have to be in tip top shape to pass, but actual morbid obesity will knock you right out on blood pressure grounds.
https://blogs.cdc.gov/niosh-science-blog/2015/03/03/truck-driver-health/

quote:

The research revealed that over two-thirds of respondents were obese (69%), as defined by a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or higher, and 17% were morbidly obese (BMI of 40 or higher). In comparison, only one-third of U.S. working adults were reported to be obese and 7% morbidly obese. Obesity increases the chance for type 2 diabetes, sleep apnea, heart disease, cancer, joint and back pain, and stroke. These health conditions can disqualify a driver from receiving their commercial driver’s license and essentially take away their livelihood.

The survey also revealed that more than half of long-haul truck drivers were current cigarette smokers —over twice the general working population (51% vs. 19%). Smoking increases the chance for heart disease, type 2 diabetes, stroke, and cancer. Although most drivers averaged over 6 hours of sleep per 24-hr period, 27% of drivers averaged 6 hours or less of sleep compared to 30% of working adults.

Yeah ok.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

So what are they going to do, just silently glare at eachother for an hour?

CAPS LOCK BROKEN
Feb 1, 2006

by Fluffdaddy

Oh come on are they getting together for some friendly banter then or what???

Mantis42
Jul 26, 2010


Yea my dad is a truckdriver and he lives out of a car and has to eat mostly truckstop food, which is basically fast food. It's actually really lovely for your health and is an awful job for a lot of reasons.

Also, as an aside, he hates Trump.

Rhesus Pieces
Jun 27, 2005

As an aside, why are the so-called moderates named the Tuesday Group now? Who he hell comes up with these lame rear end names?

CAPS LOCK BROKEN
Feb 1, 2006

by Fluffdaddy

Rhesus Pieces posted:

As an aside, why are the so-called moderates named the Tuesday Group now? Who he hell comes up with these lame rear end names?

Maybe they're all milquetoasty suburbanistas who meet every tuesday at ruby tuesday??

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
Do you have an Air Miles Card?

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

So what are they going to do, just silently glare at eachother for an hour?

Plan their ouster of Ryan?

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Mantis42 posted:

Yea my dad is a truckdriver and he lives out of a car and has to eat mostly truckstop food, which is basically fast food. It's actually really lovely for your health and is an awful job for a lot of reasons.

Also, as an aside, he hates Trump.

Oh God yeah, I think former and current truck drivers are probably the most unhealthy occupation group I see at my community health center. I've seen way too many truckers who are making their first doctor appointment in 10+ years because they just had their first heart attack or the years of untreated diabetes is now showing up with eye/kidney/nerve-pain issues. It seems like a profession that takes a huge toll on the body long-term.

Fulchrum
Apr 16, 2013

by R. Guyovich

How is this even possible? What the gently caress do they plan to do with this money? Are they literally just throwing it in a hole?

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

So what are they going to do, just silently glare at eachother for an hour?

A truly staggering display of hate-loving.

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!

evilweasel posted:

this bill has 17% support and the Freedom Caucus hasn't yet gotten coverage for pre-existing conditions and lifetime caps removed

imagine what it would poll at with that added in

Nah, you know better than this. Mirroring Obamacare favorability before the GOP made America go all Big Yellow Taxi on it, a chunk of ACHA unfavorability is certainly from the right. It's what Ryan is fighting (and losing) as we speak. I'm guessing that 17% would climb slightly after HFC removes preexisting, staying on your parents plan, and lifetime caps.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Paracaidas posted:

Nah, you know better than this. Mirroring Obamacare favorability before the GOP made America go all Big Yellow Taxi on it, a chunk of ACHA unfavorability is certainly from the right. It's what Ryan is fighting (and losing) as we speak. I'm guessing that 17% would climb slightly after HFC removes preexisting, staying on your parents plan, and lifetime caps.

coverage for pre-existing conditions is stupendously popular among everyone, GOP base included

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

whoops pence being a bit unsubtle about the actual goal here

https://twitter.com/VP/status/845051383241986048

and people say he's as dumb as a sack of hammers

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

the closer, ladies and gentlemen

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/845055894677262336

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/845056240514404353

edit: second tweet replaced with:

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/845056654353813505

evilweasel fucked around with this message at 00:42 on Mar 24, 2017

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
https://twitter.com/chefjoseandres/status/845053060699344896

This is the incredibly successful DC chef/restaurateur who left one of Trump's properties over his immigration statements.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 01:02 on Mar 24, 2017

AegisP
Oct 5, 2008
Did we even get a day's worth of negotiating work out of Trump?

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/845056007558610944

Craig K
Nov 10, 2016

puck

hes worse at closing than bobby ayala

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Blitz of 404 Error
Sep 19, 2007

Joe Biden is a top 15 president

No way

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