I would blow Dane Cook posted:

It will be the second Family First candidate, Lucy Gicuchi.

quote:

N FAMILY FIRST
DAY, Bob Family First
GICHUHI, Lucy Family First

Bogan King posted:

https://twitter.com/bencjenkins/status/849423493498359809

evilbastard posted:

Quite apart from the nice rhyming name, she may no longer be eligible : You must have two members on the ballot to be a party, and the Ballot paper for South Australia 2016 was :


Since Bob Day was ineligible to be on the ballot, then Family First shouldn't have been on the ballot as a party, and therefore there is no other party member to transfer the votes to...

What will happen first : This court case be resolved, or there's another federal election ?

quote:

Reserve Bank stuck between rock and a hard place on interest rates ANALYSIS By business editor Ian Verrender Updated about 3 hours ago

Don't expect any movement in official interest rates for the foreseeable future, for the Reserve Bank has found itself trapped. Concerned by a deterioration in the jobs market, it would dearly love to chisel off another quarter of a percentage point in official rates. (Jobs and growth!) That, however, would only add fuel to an already flaming hot eastern states property market that in the past year has belligerently cast aside any attempt to come to heel. The statement that accompanied today's decision to keep rates on hold — the eighth month in succession — contained the usual bland language for which central bankers are renowned. It is a language of observation rather than comment, devoid of colour and emotion. But it is fair to say that issues are only ever raised if they are of concern or at least noteworthy. When it comes to jobs, higher unemployment and modest jobs growth were mentioned, a step up in the rhetoric from last month. Clearly a worry.

But it was housing, the topic du jour, where the statement really got down to business.

This time last year, the RBA was in total denial about the rapidly inflating east coast housing market, underway at that time for three years, despite huge price rises, and near record auction clearance rates. There are no such delusions now. And it today laid out the conundrum it is facing. Property prices are rocketing with rises of 19 per cent in Sydney and 16 per cent in Melbourne, along with solid gains in Hobart and Canberra, mostly driven by investors. It would dearly love to bring that under control, to stop household debt soaring in the stratosphere; debt that is far outpacing income growth. In ordinary times, it would lift rates a notch, perhaps even two. But there is a huge supply of units, estimated at around 150,000, about to hit the market within the next year or so.

Should the Reserve Bank choke off that investor demand, the apartment glut could trigger big price falls. That may help solve the affordability problem, but the fallout from a serious property market slump would tip us into recession.(Jobs and growth!) There has probably never been a more difficult period to be Reserve Bank governor, something Philip Lowe now must be acutely aware of. These are extraordinary times. It is now increasingly obvious that all the regulators — the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and the Reserve Bank of Australia — are now furiously working in tandem behind the scenes to cool investor lending. So far, it hasn't worked. That's prompted the ASIC boss Greg Medcraft, who openly calls eastern states housing a bubble, to go on the front foot, warning about the perils of poor lending standards. That from a man who had a front row view of the American property market meltdown that caused the global financial crisis.

In the interim, the RBA is content to let the commercial banks do the heavy lifting, to pull back on property investor loans, although not too hard. The banks aren't complaining. After being told to restrict lending, they've now been given carte blanche to raise investor home loan rates out of the Reserve Bank cycle. And they're loving it. They've boosted margins, earnings momentum is back on track. They profited hugely by inflating the boom. Now they're making hay by helping rein it in.

MysticalMachineGun posted:

Man, if Bob Day loses his seat outright and PHON gets a smackdown from the feds this would be a really great month

Cartoon posted:

Ray Hadley on housing affordability this morning was straight up comedy. "Kids these days don't remember the era of 18% interest rates and how hard we had to do it...."

hooman posted:

Showing support for something == Bullying those who don't support it.

Good to know every Christian wearing a cross has been bullying non believers since forever.

EDIT:

Nibbles! posted:

I think someone crunched the numbers in The Conversation awhile back. Servicing an 18% loan at the time was not just cheaper than today, but far cheaper.

Or just ask Hadley why they didnt require 40+ year mortgages back then?

The ABC posted:

A senior policy advisor to Queensland Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls has been "strongly counselled" for acting without authority in making a deal with Pauline Hanson's One Nation party.

Mr Nicholls' senior policy advisor, Peter Coulson, apparently made contact with Senator Hanson's chief of staff James Ashby of his own volition.

Details of a secret agreement became public when a phone hook-up between Mr Ashby and Queensland candidates was leaked to the ABC's Four Corners program.

In it, Mr Ashby is heard saying:

"I have an agreement with the Liberal National Party, I've made one commitment to them, one agreement and I'll be upfront with you — I've made a commitment that we will not go out there and slag them for the sake of slagging them.

He named the dealmaker as Mr Coulson, a principal advisor in Mr Nicholls' office, but Mr Ashby incorrectly referred to him as the chief of staff.

"Peter Coulson rang me this morning and reminded me of our agreement because he said to me 'we have been very kind to you and not slagged you off'," Mr Ashby said in the recording.

"But I also kindly reminded him if they choose to change that agreement, we have plenty of ammunition on their candidates as well, which pulled his head in a little bit."

Mr Nicholls' chief of staff is Gerard Benedet.

After Four Corners went to air, Mr Nicholls responded on Tuesday on social media denying those claims, saying his chief of staff had never spoken to Mr Ashby, had never met him, and did not know who he was.

However, further evidence emerged later on Tuesday in relation to the claims of a private deal between One Nation and the LNP ahead of the next Queensland election.

Mr Nicholls this morning issued further statement saying he only learnt that a staff member had contact with Mr Ashby through ABC News reports.

"This staff member was acting without authority and has been strongly counselled. I have publicly ruled out any deals with One Nation and I restate it again today," Mr Nicholls said

Urcher posted:

http://theconversation.com/houses-arent-more-unaffordable-for-first-home-buyers-but-they-are-riskier-75130

The median house is more affordable now, but substantially riskier as a tiny rise in interest rates would lead to a significant rise in mortgage repayments.

ewe2 posted:

I suspect Jesus wouldn't be happy about it.

https://twitter.com/lanesainty/status/849453518473883649

Why are conservatives so drat bad at humour?

evilbastard posted:

Quite apart from the nice rhyming name, she may no longer be eligible : You must have two members on the ballot to be a party, and the Ballot paper for South Australia 2016 was :


Since Bob Day was ineligible to be on the ballot, then Family First shouldn't have been on the ballot as a party, and therefore there is no other party member to transfer the votes to...

What will happen first : This court case be resolved, or there's another federal election ?

ewe2 posted:

I suspect Jesus wouldn't be happy about it.

https://twitter.com/lanesainty/status/849453518473883649

Why are conservatives so drat bad at humour?

Senor Tron posted:

gently caress Family First, but I hope the courts don't invalidate the whole party listing. Bob Day was clearly in violation of the rules but wiping out a whole bunch of peoples votes for FF would be dodgy as imo.

Urcher posted:

http://theconversation.com/houses-arent-more-unaffordable-for-first-home-buyers-but-they-are-riskier-75130

The median house is more affordable now, but substantially riskier as a tiny rise in interest rates would lead to a significant rise in mortgage repayments.

Nibbles! posted:

Isn't the median wage today something like $38k

quote:

The WA Liberals have appointed the head of a government relations firm to conduct a comprehensive independent review of the party's "dysfunctional" state election campaign, following last month's downfall of the Barnett government.

Liberal state director Andrew Cox has written to members informing them the review will be undertaken by Barton Deakin managing director John Griffin.

Party members, constituent bodies and campaign committees have been asked to make written submission to the review and have been told they "will be treated confidentially".

Mr Griffin has more than 30 years' experience as an adviser to Liberal governments in Canberra and Victoria.

He worked on the Victorian coalition's successful 1992 state election campaign before being appointed chief of staff to Jeff Kennett.

-------/---------

In his email to members, Mr Cox said the review would have five terms of reference:

* Analysis of the Liberal Party's term of government in the context of communications, narrative, policy delivery and policy development
* Analysis of the social, economic and political context of the period and its implications for the party
* Analysis of the relationship between the leader's office, the * parliamentary party and the Liberal Party and how that relationship impacted on the election result
* A review of campaign preparations, the election campaign, the campaign techniques and strategies of our opponents and lessons for other campaigns, including the next federal election campaign in Western Australia; and
* Recommendations for the conduct of the coming period in Opposition, with an emphasis on the essential steps needed to secure the earliest possible return to government

ewe2 posted:

The WA Libs have picked a Jeff Kennett staffer to review why they lost the election. Hilarity ensues.


A little-known fact is that both ALP and Lib PR firms are mostly owned by the one company, STW Communications. John Griffin was Kennett's chief of staff for 5 years and finished with that in 1997, so long ago I can't dig up much about the circumstances, except that he "resigned to to establish his own business consultancy". More on STW here, from when it used to be called STW Group.

The tl;dr from all this though is PR people are trying to fix the message and not the party, so it'll all be for nothing.

Urcher posted:

http://theconversation.com/houses-arent-more-unaffordable-for-first-home-buyers-but-they-are-riskier-75130

The median house is more affordable now, but substantially riskier as a tiny rise in interest rates would lead to a significant rise in mortgage repayments.

hooman posted:

This is rough as guts and I had to interpolate some data points where I couldn't find info so don't take this as gospel, but it shows kind of what I expected it to show. 1990 is a massive outlier and people are right to complain about housing affordability.

Also note this is for Sydney only and for Average not MEDIAN wage which is a pretty huge difference. From memory it was average wage 80k Median wage 55k, however I couldn't find any historical median wage data.

EDIT: Beaten on average and median above.

Night Shade posted:

Left axis is the average new-purchase mortgage repayment as a fraction of average gross individual income?

hooman posted:

Bogan King posted:

https://twitter.com/workmanalice/status/849403115057106944

'Irreversible consequences': Adani coalmine granted unlimited water access for 60 years posted:

Adani’s controversial $21bn Carmichael coalmine has been granted an unlimited 60-year water licence in what environmental and legal groups say is another example of governments giving the company special treatment.

The associated water licence, signed by a Queensland government representative the day after Cyclone Debbie tore through the state’s north, allows Adani Mining to take water from or near the Betts Creek formation when removing or draining water from the mine.

The licence acknowledges this will “have an impact on the underground water levels in the region of the mine” both during and after the planned Carmichael coalmine’s years of operation.

“Certainly the severe implications are that if the groundwater is taken, then it’s not available for other more long-term or sustainable uses,” said Jo-Anne Bragg, the chief executive and solicitor at the Environment Defenders Office Queensland. “This would be an irreversible serious consequence of these enormous coalmines.”

Adani’s permit is valid through to 2077 and its 100 conditions provide no volumetric limits on the amount of groundwater, or any triggers to halt mining operations. It rather requires Adani to monitor the effects of its project on water levels and respond with “make-good agreements” with any affected landholders.

Environmental and legal groups said that would potentially be too late to reverse any damage caused to the region’s farms and land titles. “Our experience is that this is no substitute for sustainable water resources for landowners,” Bragg said.

“There’s an issue about whether this controversial company will even be in existence to honour make-good agreements over that time and practical issues such as where the water would be supplied from.”

An accompanying environmental impact statement reportedly includes a prediction from Adani that by 2029 it will be drawing 26m litres of water a day, and about 355bn litres over its lifetime.

A campaigner at the Australian Conservation Foundation, Basha Stasak, said: “The primary concern is that there are no trigger thresholds or, if you prefer another word, impact thresholds, which require a cessation of mining.

“The concerns we have is that even at the levels they’re saying they need it’s not clear what the impacts would be.”

Stasak said it was concerning the process was “obscure and opaque”.

“Best practice should certainly be addressing some very clear standards around what the impacts will be and being very clear on how they are mitigating against them … and where the risks are too high,” Stasak said.

“At minimum Adani should be required to play by the same rules as everyone else and not be given special treatment. We are not talking best practice we are talking minimum standard.”

Adani’s water licence is not subject to the scrutiny measures brought in with amendments to Queensland’s Water Act last year.

Under its exceptions, the company is not required to take public submissions or appeals, which Bragg also described as “special treatment”, given that other proposed mines – including the much smaller the New Acland project – are bound by the requirements.

“They lobbied politicians from all parties in Queensland to have a special case made for Adani Carmichael, even though other Mega Galilee mines … do need to have public submissions and appeals,” she said.

“Really it’s just shocking that the Queensland community won’t have an opportunity on the merits to scrutinise this associated water licence with groundwater experts and point out the weaknesses in this licence.”

Ariane Wilkinson, a lawyer from Environmental Justice Australia, said there were also other areas of concern, including the lack of any need under Queensland’s Environmental Protection Act for the government to consider the history of Adani and its related companies’ alleged foreign environment law offences.

“It goes completely under the radar,” Wilkinson said. “In Australia Adani has not demonstrated that it can comply with environmental laws and regulations while embarking on a project of anything like the size and scale of Carmichael.

“In India Adani has taken on projects of this scale and risk and we know that it has been found guilty of serious environmental breaches and has a terrible track record in its home country.”

Queensland’s natural resources and mines minister, Anthony Lynham, defended the licence and said more than 100 of the 270 conditions on the project applied to groundwater.

“These safeguards will ensure that water resources are protected, and that this critical project progresses sustainably,” he said.

Lynham said the licences provided Adani with about 1% of what farmers are now able to use in the Burdekin catchment, and that Adani has to pay about three times what farmers do to use surface water.

“This project has been through extensive scrutiny by state and federal governments,” he said. “The community and many of these groups have had their say, many times.”

Bogan King posted:

https://twitter.com/bencjenkins/status/849423493498359809

hooman posted:

hooman posted:

*hits self with huge stick with "LABEL YOUR AXES" written on it*

Anidav posted:

Ironically the LNP will suck Adani dick even harder while QLDers cry for lack of alternative while ignoring the greens