|
Proud Christian Mom posted:The DNC is worthless. Any retaking of seats at states is going to depend entirely on the local/state apparatus and outside funding while the DNC looks at ultra safe blue states victory lap in. rscott posted:Their excuse was that if they got involved then it would attract the attention of the national Republican political establishment, of course the state party didn't do poo poo until yesterday either because the KDP is useless nachos posted:I don't understand the reasoning behind this. Oh no the republicans might actually have to play defense! The horror! It'd be wonderful if Thompson wins but I doubt that was ever in the cards here. So what story do you want after the loss? I'd rather have "Grassroots Activism puts the pressure on candidates in safe Red districts" than "Republican wins by 8 up against full force of the DNC". And if a few armchair slacktivists decide they can't trust the party and they'll have to put the effort in themselves in 2018, so much the better. e: I'm a few days behind the times? Oh well. TankieDog will live on in my memory, and upon my clipboard. Paracaidas fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Apr 12, 2017 |
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 00:05
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 15, 2024 14:13 |
|
|
Hey Neolib, the polls have him within a percentage point. Look I know you'd like to never ever have to hear from flyover gomers again> But guess what? plenty of them want something beyond getting raped by the GOP. Now I know that also means they want less gun control and more workers protections which you cannot stand. But then the party doesn't need you.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 00:25
|
|
|
The only poll I've seen is from a GOP internal poll. They may be lying about the close margin only to adjust expectations downward, so if Thompson loses by 10 or so, Republicans can avoid some embarrassment and still claim a win.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 00:32
|
|
|
Oxxidation posted:The guiding principle of the GOP is that government is worthless. Any beneficial public services damage their ideological line. That's the core of it, really. They run on a platform of "government is useless and can do nothing right." Once they get into office they prove it by taking the hammer to everything they can.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 00:33
|
|
|
Crowsbeak posted:Hey Neolib, the polls have him within a percentage point. Look I know you'd like to never ever have to hear from flyover gomers again> But guess what? plenty of them want something beyond getting raped by the GOP. Now I know that also means they want less gun control and more workers protections which you cannot stand. But then the party doesn't need you.  To clarify for anyone who is actually interested in this, Crowsbeak is wrong to say that the polls have Thompson within a percentage point. Mostly because there aren't polls at all. No public company bothered polling the race because nobody thought there was a race here. There's only one poll being discussed currently, which is an internal one form the Estes campaign. Internal polling rarely leaks without a specific reason, and the Executive Director of state party doesn't hype that leak unless there's some sort of strategy around it. As discussed above (and Ego-bot nails it), there's a very clear reason for the Estes campaign to publicize the shockingly close poll (especially in a special election): It increases urgency and turnout from a demotivated base and dramatically lowers expectations about the margin. Supporting this theory, early voting leaned GOP in this race... this is a bad sign for Thompson. For those who are interested in the margin, the early vote wasn't as heavily GOP as it typically is in the district.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 00:44
|
|
|
Crowsbeak posted:Hey Neolib, the polls have him within a percentage point. Look I know you'd like to never ever have to hear from flyover gomers again> But guess what? plenty of them want something beyond getting raped by the GOP. Now I know that also means they want less gun control and more workers protections which you cannot stand. But then the party doesn't need you. What the gently caress are you trying to say, crazy conservative dude?
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 01:16
|
|
|
I found a thing for live results of this election. http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/kansas-house-special-election-district-4 Come on Thompson...
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 01:21
|
|
|
Um Wichita voting blue? In my lifetime? 
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 01:30
|
|
|
Paracaidas posted:
Ao the repubs are leaking polls saying they wont win by much... why wouldnt that encourage dems to go after the blood in the water? Toss 20k or so at the campaign at least, make it closer to keep repubs nervous. Dems, by doing nothing, are falling for the trick, proving their worthlessness yet again.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 01:35
|
|
|
Paracaidas posted:Newt Gingrich's old district: SAFE BLUE STATE VICTORY LAP. loving hell. I love Very Serious People and their analysis which continually writes off my state entirely. Hey at least they've been successful elsewhere. What's that, the strategy has worked literally nowhere? :thinking:
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 01:41
|
|
|
There is no enthusiasm from any of my conservative co-workers about this election, the only people I hear talking about it intended to vote for Thompson. Anecdotal for sure and who knows what the sticks are like but first signs are encouraging
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 01:49
|
|
|
rscott posted:There is no enthusiasm from any of my conservative co-workers about this election, the only people I hear talking about it intended to vote for Thompson. Anecdotal for sure and who knows what the sticks are like but first signs are encouraging No, you see I am a very serious person who lives on the coast and knows that all people in Kansas are toothless gomer neanderthals who would never have the inclination to vote for anyone that wasn't screaming about killing gays and immigrants.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 01:55
|
|
|
IDK that's pretty accurate it's just that none of them can be assed to go out and vote on a Tuesday in April. It's mostly old people with nothing else to do that are the main threat.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 01:58
|
|
|
Crowsbeak posted:No, you see I am a very serious person who lives on the coast and knows that all people in Kansas are toothless gomer neanderthals who would never have the inclination to vote for anyone that wasn't screaming about killing gays and immigrants. I thought losing to an idiot game show host would at least give give the Democratic leadership pause, but instead they are fully committed to the same strategy that got them locked out of federal power and most state legislatures. They really would rather retain their personal positions of authority within the out of power Democratic party rather than make changes that risk ceding that personal power.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 02:12
|
|
|
I know the full vote isn't in, but hot drat if the dems win this.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 02:16
|
|
|
No Butt Stuff posted:I know the full vote isn't in, but hot drat if the dems win this. If dude wins i'll dance at your wedding gay wedding
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 02:17
|
|
|
14% in, Dems off to a strong start
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 02:23
|
|
|
No Butt Stuff posted:I know the full vote isn't in, but hot drat if the dems win this. It's more of a Thompson win, the dems have literally done gently caress all to help him
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 02:32
|
|
|
This reminds me of Hillary Clinton playing 12-D psychological chessmaster gamesmanship and not campaigning at all in the Rust Belt, hoping it would psych out Republicans and trick them into not contesting those states. "Maybe if we don't campaign in this House race, Republicans will just forget to and we'll win if for free! Oh they didn't forget? Well that seat probably tastes sour anyway." Clinton 2020 campaign: hire me I have a plan. Don't campaign at all, spend the cash on the biggest baddest crunkest victory party in history on Nov 1. Republicans will be so psyched out by our confidence they'll just give up and withdraw.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 02:33
|
|
|
Terror Sweat posted:It's more of a Thompson win, the dems have literally done gently caress all to help him And if he loses, it's because the Dems did literally gently caress all to help him?
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 02:34
|
|
|
redneck nazgul posted:And if he loses, it's because the Dems did literally gently caress all to help him? Depends on the margins
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 02:36
|
|
|
Terror Sweat posted:It's more of a Thompson win, the dems have literally done gently caress all to help him in their defense, his thompson's twitter bio doesn't mention he's a democrat and he's working much harder to tie his opponent to brownback than to trump. e:or so i read awesmoe fucked around with this message at 02:47 on Apr 12, 2017 |
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 02:39
|
|
|
redneck nazgul posted:And if he loses, it's because the Dems did literally gently caress all to help him? Yes
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 02:42
|
|
|
got any sevens posted:Ao the repubs are leaking polls saying they wont win by much... why wouldnt that encourage dems to go after the blood in the water? Toss 20k or so at the campaign at least, make it closer to keep repubs nervous. WorkerThread posted:I love Very Serious People and their analysis which continually writes off my state entirely. Hey at least they've been successful elsewhere. What's that, the strategy has worked literally nowhere? :thinking: Crowsbeak posted:No, you see I am a very serious person who lives on the coast and knows that all people in Kansas are toothless gomer neanderthals who would never have the inclination to vote for anyone that wasn't screaming about killing gays and immigrants. Lookit this fucker careposting in D&D! LOL he's putting effort into explaining things  I'm not a coastal neoliberal shill (oh-for-4 ITT tonight crowsbeak), but there are 2 other D&D threads and an entire subforum that will welcome whitenoise shitposts about how BadDems are Bad. Please don't poo poo up a good thread with that nonsense tonight. For actual content-still waiting on quite a bit out of Wichita (hopefully), but we're down to neck-and-neck with 47% reporting. For a political newcomer and Berner without much support outside of the grass/netroots, getting it this close is huge. If he finishes within 10, it's a major story and an impressive show of strength for the movement.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 02:48
|
|
|
awesmoe posted:in their defense, his thompson's twitter bio doesn't mention he's a democrat and he's working much harder to tie his opponent to brownback than to trump. e:or so i read THere is no defense. This is a fuckup of the National party. Time to purge the so called wonks like Pardicas, make it feel like 1937.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 02:49
|
|
|
Paracaidas posted:The GOP is leaking an internal about how close it is.... in order to trick the Dems into thinking it's not actually close so that they don't spend money? I'd ask you to elaborate but it's not time for some game theory. Estes is underperforming trump by ~5-10% in the counties, so who knows
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 02:52
|
|
|
Ego-bot posted:The only poll I've seen is from a GOP internal poll. They may be lying about the close margin only to adjust expectations downward, so if Thompson loses by 10 or so, Republicans can avoid some embarrassment and still claim a win. 10 is the "standard" starting point right now. That's about the "normal" win in the state for republicans. If Thompson really does lose by 2 or 3 that's a positive showing but anything more than 5% and it's basically business as usual.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 03:05
|
|
|
Terror Sweat posted:Estes is underperforming trump by ~5-10% in the counties, so who knows I briefly wet myself because NYT swapped columns when Estes took over the lead (up by ~2,000 votes/3% with 61% in) and tried to figure out how the hell he took the lead in Sedgwick. Repurposing 538 a bit (w-w-w-wonk?!), but given everything involved in the race-a decent guide of how to read the final results:
Estes by 20+: Confusing early returns, admirable showing by Thompson Estes by 15ish: Best Dem showing since Pompeo took over the seat Estes by 10-15: Inner Ring Suburban R incumbents get nervous nationwide Estes by less than 10: Progressive Movement is taking deserved victory laps. Tuesday Group abandons any controversial legislation Estes by less than 5: Perez hosed up, GA-6 is winnable outright, and most of the GOP is jumping at shadows Thompson by any margin: There are no safely red senate seats, districts, statehouses, or governors mansions Anubis posted:10 is the "standard" starting point right now. In 2014 the seat was won by 10 points over an independent. If Thompson really does lose by 2 or 3 that's a positive showing but anything more than 5% and it's basically business as usual. Which seat? Not Pompeo's...
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 03:05
|
|
|
Crowsbeak posted:THere is no defense. This is a fuckup of the National party. Time to purge the so called wonks like Pardicas, make it feel like 1937. I think it's a bit early for that. IDK if this seat was winable and you don't want to go all in on a seat that isn't winable this early.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 03:07
|
|
|
Paracaidas posted:Which seat? Not Pompeo's... I screwed up and was looking at the Orman v Roberts run. Still, with the least popular governor in the nation I still put the break even point at 10%.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 03:11
|
|
|
mcmagic posted:I think it's a bit early for that. IDK if this seat was winable and you don't want to go all in on a seat that isn't winable this early. How about going in just a little bit?
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 03:14
|
|
|
 DEFIANCE PROTOCOL https://twitter.com/KWCH12/status/851970046876426240
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 03:14
|
|
|
mcmagic posted:I think it's a bit early for that. IDK if this seat was winable and you don't want to go all in on a seat that isn't winable this early.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 03:16
|
|
|
forkboy84 posted:How about going in just a little bit?
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 03:16
|
|
|
Paracaidas posted:
Kobach going to steal the seat?
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 03:19
|
|
|
There was a story about a Wichita State professor who said he found irregularities in the 2014 election results but Kris Kobach wouldn't authorize a review of the physical record because it would cost too much... That far east in Wichita is pretty wealthy though so I don't think they need to stuff that particular ballot box
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 03:22
|
|
|
Crowsbeak posted:Sorry, but no, Perez claimned he was going to do as Ellison said. Fight as though every loving election mattered. Maybe this race will help; with fundraising for just that.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 03:22
|
|
|
mcmagic posted:Maybe this race will help; with fundraising for just that. Let me break out my wallet for the "Fight for every election, except the one that just happened" campaign.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 03:23
|
|
|
forkboy84 posted:How about going in just a little bit? Why bother, most of the country is too stupid to vote for us. *loses all over the map* See it was hopeless all along.
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 03:26
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 15, 2024 14:13 |
|
|
VitalSigns posted:Why bother, most of the country is too stupid to vote for us. To be fair, you really do have to be a loving retard to want to vote for Estes after Brownback and the Republicans have ran this state into the ground. Seriously, who in the gently caress are these people? Where the gently caress did all these Estes votes come from? Who are these people who like him enough to show up and vote for him? Who are these people?
|
|
#
?
Apr 12, 2017 03:29
|
|