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If there is some kind of mass slaughter of civilians by the military, I think I can see outside intervention becoming a real possibility.
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Apr 18, 2017 23:48
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Is poo poo finally gonna go down this week?
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Apr 19, 2017 02:13
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If I had to hazard a guess, this is what's going to happen tomorrow: - The government will send its supporters and goons to the opposition's starting spots for the protest, to disrupt it from the get go. - Some spots will be more affected than others, but there are so many that people will still get be able to gather in large numbers and start moving toward the Defensor del Pueblo's office. - The National Guard will block access to the People's Ombudsman's office and there will be clashes with protesters as they attempt to press onward. - Protesters will call en masse to head towards Miraflores. This is definitely what people think will happen tomorrow as the expectations are way too high. If the opposition leadership backs down again and tells people to go home, they'll be digging their own graves and they probably know that. - The protest will start to make its way towards Miraflores and there will be more clashes with the National Guard and the government's paramilitary groups. - ??? Tensions are way too high for tomorrow and everyone thinks there's going to be violence. I'm pretty darn close to Miraflores and there are also going to be multiple pro-government protests tomorrow all around me, so I'm not sure if I'll be able to make it to the opposition march. When that happens, usually they block access to this area pretty tightly and I don't want to be caught outside without being able to make my way home. Either way, I'll try to post updates throughout the day in case poo poo goes down and maybe take pictures if the opposition protest makes its way till here and I can join in then.
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Apr 19, 2017 03:04
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Legit stay safe Labradoodle.
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Apr 19, 2017 03:41
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For real! Please stay safe 
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Apr 19, 2017 04:01
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Yeah man, take care. Then again you're close to Miraflores: if Maduro, Diosdado or Padrón happens to walk near your building I hope you have a big rock and good aim.
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Apr 19, 2017 07:20
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Like Labradoodle said (stay safe, Labradoodle!), the thing to watch for today will be if the crowd tries to make its way to Miraflores. The People's Defender office is about 8 blocks away from Miraflores (approximately 1.1 km), so if a sizable crowd makes it that far there's no reason to believe they won't push on to Miraflores. Marches often try to make it to Miraflores and are effectively prevented from doing so by overwhelming National Guard and National Bolivarian Police response, but if the opposition numbers are big enough today the result might be different. A few other things to watch:
If you'd like to follow along on Twitter, here are some hashtags that will feature throughout the day: #19VzlaEnLaCalle, #19A, #Caracas, #YoSiMarchoPorLaPaz. The marches are scheduled to begin at 10:00 AM. EDIT: NTN24 now has a stream dedicated to Venezuela: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1TChZkqer8 It's about 11:40 AM Caracas time and the confrontations are starting. I just watched a group headed by National Assembly VP Freddy Guevara get tear gasses and dispersed. I'm also hearing that a protester has been shot in the head and killed in the neighbourhood of San Bernardino in Caracas. EDIT 2: Correction: the person shot in the head in San Bernandino is still alive: https://twitter.com/victoramaya/status/854717156306690048 Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 16:47 on Apr 19, 2017 |
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Apr 19, 2017 13:56
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At what point can we say "thankfully things didn't go to poo poo today"? Is there a central act or position that the opposition will try to do/occupy that the regime will not tolerate and yet the opposition may be ballsy enough to try if the march stays coherent? As always thanks for the input to all the Venezuelans here and stay safe.
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Apr 19, 2017 18:15
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Marching to the western part of Caracas is a red line for the regime, which is why we always see the authorities violently suppress any opposition march that tries to do that. The #1 goal today is to reach the western side of the city where all the government buildings are. The last time that happened was in 2002, and it ended up with Chavez getting (temporarily) removed from power. Here are some pictures and videos from what's been going on today. So far the protests seem huge. https://twitter.com/rachellekrygier/status/854747218284249090 https://twitter.com/unidadvenezuela/status/854744511305613313 https://twitter.com/DiarioTalCual/status/854740381124243462 https://twitter.com/hispanopost/status/854732807884726272 https://twitter.com/CNNEE/status/854732110099349506 https://twitter.com/rachellekrygier/status/854730042559082496 https://twitter.com/VoluntadPopular/status/854734400562618369 In Bello Monte, the National Guard surrounded protesters. When the protesters realized they were surrounded, they started fleeing in panic in every direction. Many of them crossed the Guaire river across pipes, and some even waded across: https://twitter.com/dsmolansky/status/854745386568867840 https://twitter.com/dsmolansky/status/854744387397529600 https://twitter.com/JuanAndresMejia/status/854739864314621952 I'm hearing conflicting reports about the status of the man who was shot in the head earlier this morning. From the two videos that I saw of the aftermath of the shooting, I'd be extremely surprised if he is still alive. The injury he received was catastrophic.
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Apr 19, 2017 18:29
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Chuck Boone posted:No problem. Thank you for taking an interest in this! I want to say thanks too. Your insights are extremely valuable.
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Apr 19, 2017 19:00
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Chuck Boone posted:
Just heard the guy that was shot has died.
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Apr 19, 2017 19:06
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Are crowds being fired upon or is that happening tonight?
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Apr 19, 2017 19:07
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Tons of tear gas, and SOME bullets must be flying because, as mentioned, someone has already died. Outright open fire though, does not appear so.
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Apr 19, 2017 19:14
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Gozinbulx posted:Just heard the guy that was shot has died. Laphroaig posted:I want to say thanks too. Your insights are extremely valuable. No problem. I'm lucky to be able to work on this full-time, and I'm really glad that there are people out there who want to know what's happening in Venezuela and are concerned. So, thank you. Grouchio posted:Are crowds being fired upon or is that happening tonight? When I say colectivo armado, I mean these guys:  That picture was taken somewhere in Caracas (EDIT: I believe it was on the 9 de Diciembre bridge) early this afternoon. As you can see, they are 1) armed, 2) working in conjunction with authorities (notice the "GNB" on the motorcycle - that stands for National Bolivarian Guard), and 3) made up of civilians, as they're not wearing any type of uniform. This is the type of group that is alleged to have killed Moreno this morning, as well as a few other (I think its 2 or 3) protesters over the past two weeks. Also, I'm only able to pay close attention to what's happening in Caracas since that's where most of the media is. There are demonstrations like this happening all around the country. This video was recorded in Maracaibo, Zulia state earlier today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX1CTZKMp84 EDIT: Here's a video of a woman refusing to move out of the way of an armored truck on the Francisco Fajardo highway in Caracas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxzXMYD45X4 Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 19:32 on Apr 19, 2017 |
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Apr 19, 2017 19:20
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Now Samuel Moncada is speaking at the OEA and good god what a smug prick.
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Apr 19, 2017 19:20
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BTW NTN24 (not the new NTN24 Venezuela that is still live) stopped on Youtube (which was geoblocked). Here is the direct m3u of their Livestream stream: https://dai.google.com/linear/hls/e...th/1798144.m3u8
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Apr 19, 2017 19:21
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In other Venezuela mess news, PDVSA's neglect of port facilities means ships are routinely long delayed from shipping out oil, because the systems leak oil all over and foreign ports require ships to be cleaned off first: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-tankers-insight-idUSKBN17K0CE "At oil export terminals around the world - where crude leaks like those in Venezuela are relatively rare - an oil-stained tanker would normally be taken out of the water and cleaned with industrial equipment in a dry dock. But Venezuela has just one small dry dock and lacks the cash or the time to send its soiled tankers there for proper cleaning, according to the PDVSA executives, ship captains and two workers from tanker cleaning companies. So workers on a small fishing boat clean the giant tanker with thousands of scrub-brush strokes. The work - which involves scouring ships above and below the water line - can take up to ten days per vessel, a worker involved in the cleaning said." "Eighteen of the 31 oil tankers PDVSA owns were out of commission at the end of March, according to Thomson Reuters vessel-tracking data and six maritime industry employees, who spoke with Reuters on condition of anonymity. Several needed cleaning, while others need repairs, according to the data. To keep oil flowing, PDVSA leases more than 50 tankers - each at a cost of between $800,000 to $1 million per month, according to three captains and ship brokers involved in lease contracts with PDVSA and Thomson Reuters vessel tracking data. That is more than double the number of vessels it typically leases to complement its own fleet of tankers, according to the sources. "
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Apr 19, 2017 19:28
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So far, two people have been killed and an unknown number are injured. The two fatalities are:
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Apr 19, 2017 21:20
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As far as I know, the protest already dissipated in most locations, but there are still a few small skirmishes going on in Eastern Caracas, as usually happens after a big march. The government was smart and it didn't give all the protestors time to join up by blocking their routes from early in the morning so they never made it to the Ombudsman's office. In the meantime, the government called for its own big march on Western Caracas and padded its numbers by forcing public employees to attend. There were a lot of expectations around today and the government was ready to quell them. I suppose the opposition will be calling for more protests soon since they can't afford for things to 'quiet down' this time.
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Apr 19, 2017 21:29
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The protest was legitimately massive. Turnout was truly incredible, which is great, we may actually be reaching 2002 levels. This also came with an unseen escalation in repression, the police deployment was overwhelming and they basically started gassing everyone right away. Maduro implied that he's going to call for regional elections, probably as a way to cool people down, but I doubt there will be anybody getting fooled by this poo poo again. There wasn't any calls for recall referendums, or elections, people want Maduro out and they want that now. EDIT: Unofficial estimates are putting turnouts in the millions, we're talking about almost 5 million people protesting around the country, more than a million just in Caracas. fnox fucked around with this message at 23:21 on Apr 19, 2017 |
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Apr 19, 2017 23:04
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fnox posted:The protest was legitimately massive. Turnout was truly incredible, which is great, we may actually be reaching 2002 levels. This also came with an unseen escalation in repression, the police deployment was overwhelming and they basically started gassing everyone right away. Maduro implied that he's going to call for regional elections, probably as a way to cool people down, but I doubt there will be anybody getting fooled by this poo poo again. There wasn't any calls for recall referendums, or elections, people want Maduro out and they want that now. you think he will go(either willingly or because the psuv will force him) or will his mind break more and he will refuse.
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Apr 20, 2017 00:18
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https://twitter.com/AP/status/854835790521696256 thanks venezuela
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Apr 20, 2017 00:34
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our president literally only knows about the existence of your country because all the hot girls and women leaving and participating in his beauty contests.
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Apr 20, 2017 00:35
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The opposition just made a call for another protest tomorrow following the same route. Apparently, the play here is to keep the pressure up until the National Guard can't keep repressing the protests effectively anymore.
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Apr 20, 2017 00:43
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Here are more pictures and videos from today. These are all from Caracas: https://twitter.com/Oenomaus04/status/854728352946688000 https://twitter.com/robertodeniz/status/854718232426577922 https://twitter.com/CVDemForum/status/854724438717280256 https://twitter.com/nlluengo/status/854748608335417344 There are a couple of videos and pictures of the two fatalities from today (Carlos Jose Moreno and Paola Andreina Ramirez Gomez). I won't link them here but they were both shot in the head by pro-regime civilian armed groups. There is a video showing Paola getting shot in the back of the head as she walked down the street at medium range from a colectivo armado that was driving by on motorcycles. Panicked protesters in the San Martin area of Caracas fleeing gunfire: https://twitter.com/liliantintori/status/854782914084704256 The National Guard advancing on protesters: https://twitter.com/CaracasMetro/status/854764884285960193 https://twitter.com/nalayita/status/854822073356734464 National Guard soldiers beating a woman (this is probably not from Caracas): https://twitter.com/AlbertoRT51/status/854818318385111040 A National Guard phalanx in action: https://twitter.com/MariiaOropeza/status/854729140628582400 I don't know how much longer the country can go on like this. Labradoodle posted:The opposition just made a call for another protest tomorrow following the same route. Apparently, the play here is to keep the pressure up until the National Guard can't keep repressing the protests effectively anymore. If the protests tomorrow aren't as big as they were today, then the opposition runs the risk of looking like it's running out of steam. If this becomes a slugest, once side is going to end up in pieces. EDIT: I forgot to include some of the most iconic images from the day. A lone woman faces off against a National Guard armored truck: https://twitter.com/albertoyajure/status/854831089520705536 https://twitter.com/wilvarela64/status/854787518457413634 Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 01:03 on Apr 20, 2017 |
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Apr 20, 2017 01:00
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Here's a video of a National Guard soldier shooting (what is likely a rubber bullet) into a home. The woman recording the video was hit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LZUc_VO4VY
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Apr 20, 2017 02:08
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In other news, the government seized the General Motors Venezolana plant in Valencia yesterday. I can't wait to see the first Chavista built cars. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-venezuela-idUSKBN17M08I
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Apr 20, 2017 10:16
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Late last night, a National Guard soldier was killed during a confrontation with protesters in San Antonio de los Altos, which is located just south of Caracas. The soldier's name was Neuman Jose Sanclemente. Another soldier was injured in San Antonio last night, but he's expected to recover. This video was recorded in San Antonio last night. It shows National Guard soldiers dragging one of their comrades to the back of an armored truck. The people recording the video initially think that the soldier was dead, but I think it's impossible to know and that they were just caught up in the moment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oo27V5Qky_s This video appears to have been filmed by the same group of people as the one above, but I'm not sure if it was filmed before/after. It shows a group of National Guard soldiers getting hit by a molotov cocktail: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW65ztAD3qg Sanclemente's death was the third one yesterday. That makes April 19 the deadliest single day of protests since February-April 2014. I also saw a couple of videos circulating on Twitter last night showing what looks like a gun battle between pro-regime militias ("colectivos armados") and opposition supporters in the Quinta Crespo area of Caracas late last night. Here are the two videos: 1) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0elZv0mfes 2) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxs-Xcxo2T8&t=1s The videos really show how chaotic the night was in some places in the country last night. The people recording the videos seem to have a sense for what's going on (i.e., who is fighting and where the shooting is coming from), but who knows. It's interesting to note that in the second video, you can see one of the gunmen point his pistol up in the air (presumably at a residential building) as if he is going to shoot, but doesn't for some reason. I always go on about these colectivos armados (they're actually a central part of my dissertation research) because they're really worth thinking about, specially in the context of anti-regime unrest. As you can see from the violence of the last two weeks, colectivos are an important pillar of the regime's protest repression toolbox (they've been responsible for 5 out of the 9 deaths in the past two weeks). Yesterday showed the colectivos at their most effective: shooting people randomly in order to strike fear into people in order to dissuade them from going out to protest. The two people killed by colectivos yesterday were likely not even participating in protests at all. They appear to have been targeted simply because they happened to be in the vicinity of a protest. It's easy to see how the colectivos wouldn't be able to tell, from looking at a crowd of people, who was there protesting and who was simply walking by. This video shows the moments before Paola Ramirez was killed by a colectivo in San Cristobal (you don't actually see her getting shot. You just see her lying on the ground from far away). The video shows a colectivo congregated at an intersection harassing protesters and firing their weapons. Towards the end of the video, a bullet reaches Paola and she dies on the spot: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qQC4kbGIhA&t=9s It's vital that everyone understand that colectivos act with impunity with the consent from the official authorities. These deaths weren't random acts of violence. The colectivos are key players in the Maduro regime's repertoire of repression. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 12:50 on Apr 20, 2017 |
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Apr 20, 2017 12:47
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Maduro has deliberately used the threat of collectivos on his discourses for a long time now. "Bajarán los cerros" -or, "the hills will come down" refers to the people living at the poorest parts of the country (mainly hills in Caracas but Cerro basically refers to any poor neighborhood) as to communicate both that the common people are with him, and that the opposition has no support from the lower class. In reality, everyone knows he's talking about the Colectivos. Everyone knows that if ordered, the colectivos WILL shoot to kill with total impunity, and that they have the firepower to act as Maduro's troops even if the military somehow turns on him. These are the fanatics of Chavismo with carte blanque to do whatever they want as long as it's "for the revolution". My mom is safe, but she had to run away because of gunshots from these same fuckers near where she was marching.
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Apr 20, 2017 13:07
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Hugoon Chavez posted:My mom is safe, but she had to run away because of gunshots from these same fuckers near where she was marching. This image perfectly encapsulates what I was feeling yesterday (and I'm sure it's true for you as well): https://twitter.com/CaracasChron/status/854724529100390401
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Apr 20, 2017 13:15
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Too true. I've always said I have little love for my country but even then, part of me wishes I was there and I could join the protests. I have nothing but respect and pride for those on the street trying to make something happen. Not my mom though, get back home, mom! jeez  .
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Apr 20, 2017 13:38
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Hugoon Chavez posted:"Bajarán los cerros" -or, "the hills will come down" refers to the people living at the poorest parts of the country (mainly hills in Caracas but Cerro basically refers to any poor neighborhood) as to communicate both that the common people are with him, and that the opposition has no support from the lower class. I just want to point out that also everyone knows this is another blatant case of Maduro trying to change a phrase's meaning, and is doing it with one with a well-known context: "The Hills will come down" is a classic warning by politic studies experts addressed only to the Government that, once the limit of their patience is hit, the lower classes are more than capable of not stopping (even if it mean throwing their lives) until dismantling everyone in a seat of power that's clearly proven to not being interested in improving their life conditions (Hence why Chavez focused so much in his warped populist measures). It's specially laughable he's also trying to attach it to the Colectivos, because they'd be actually ineffective the moment the phrase becomes true.
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Apr 20, 2017 16:33
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Would you say those militias are comparable to the basij in Iran?
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Apr 20, 2017 17:18
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There are lots of protests all over Caracas and around the country today. They're not as big as the ones yesterday because yesterday's protests were likely among the largest in the country's history, and going out to get tear gassed and possibly murdered in the hot sun two days in a row is a tall order for the average person. The protests are still unfolding. As of 1:20 PM EST time, state authorities have fired tear gas to disperse crowds at diverse points in Caracas. Here are some pictures and videos of the events so far today: At the Brion Plaza in Chacaito, Caracas: https://twitter.com/DiarioTalCual/status/855107617185828864 Barricades on the O'Higgins Avenue in La Paz, Caracas: https://twitter.com/Yohanamarra/status/855107919762927616 Protesters in Chacao, Caracas: https://twitter.com/ReporteYa/status/855107899521105920 Protesters on the Francisco de Miranda avenue in Caracas: https://twitter.com/ReporteYa/status/855108467060854784 In Ciudad Guayana, Bolivar state: https://twitter.com/YasbekRachid/status/855107263509516289 In Merida, Merida state: https://twitter.com/ElPitazoTV/status/855108434462683137 Scaramouche posted:Would you say those militias are comparable to the basij in Iran? I don't know about the Basij, but I'll say a couple of general things about the colectivos armados with the hopes that you'll be able to tell us if the two groups are similar:
Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 18:30 on Apr 20, 2017 |
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Apr 20, 2017 18:24
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I'm working on a more thorough update before I go to sleep tonight, but this is happening in the El Paraiso neighbourhood of Caracas right now: https://twitter.com/jogonzalezc/status/855236772133031941 https://twitter.com/jogonzalezc/status/855234446915760129
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Apr 21, 2017 02:58
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The situation in Caracas is chaotic to put it mildly. It is now 12:30 AM in the city and there have been heavy street fights throughout the night in many areas, with the most intense ones in the neighbour of El Valle. Aside from the two videos in my previous post, this one was recorded in the area at approximately 11:30 PM: https://twitter.com/freddyzur/status/855270961779691520 I apologize for the mess that is this post but I'm having a difficult time keeping track of and parsing all the information that I've been seeing over the last two hours or so. I'm only reporting on information that I feel confident is true. There are a lot of wild rumours going around tonight... people are getting really worked up.
Like I said, lots of information coming in suggesting that Caracas is engulfed in chaos tonight.
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Apr 21, 2017 05:30
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSLlZh9yelk Stay alive compañeros.
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Apr 21, 2017 06:47
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This is a pretty cool image of a pretty crazy guy that went out to protest naked against the military: Slightly NSF (hairy butt):  Some videos of him, here: http://www.caraotadigital.net/nacionales/manifestante-se-desnudo-para-exigir-cese-de-la-represion-video/ The marks on his back are from rubber bullets. As someone who took some in the leg once: they hurt like hell and he's going to look like a smurf today. Another one from yesterday:  No word about what'll go down today, I think, but it's pretty clear that things are getting more violent as the days go on. The 19th march was mostly a peaceful manifestation against the goverment, but the snowball it started becomes less about peace and more about rebellion as the hours pass. This weekend might very well be explosive in a way there's no turning back from. Will the social unrest and international pressure be enough for the military to turn on Maduro and Padrino López?
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Apr 21, 2017 08:56
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I have a friend who lives in El Valle, he had to leave his apartment and move to his neighbor's because the tear gas got too heavy. He's sending me videos of the stuff, protesters were throwing molotovs at the riot control vehicles, as colectivos got involved (Carrying what I think is some of the heaviest gear I've seen them carry, with automatic assault rifles and grenades) it escalated into a real firefight. He's telling me that in his entire life living there, he's never seen that. El Valle has always been a chavista stronghold, but of course being poor they've been hit the heaviest by Maduro's policies, which sort of immediately breaks the perception of the opposition being nothing but middle class people living in the east of Caracas. In short, this is a situation that is quickly escalating beyond Maduro's control. The second the concentrations are able to outmaneuver the police blockades and get , we're going to see the government start to really start sweating bullets.
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Apr 21, 2017 10:16
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Stay safe people in country (el hefe please be okay).
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Apr 21, 2017 10:33
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