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ChairMaster posted:It seems so utterly childish though, it's like believing in Santa Claus or something. It's so blindingly self-evident that it's completely worthless, but a few misleading selective MLK quotes convinces entire generations of people that non-violent protest is the way to get things done? When was the last time you threw a chair through a window in protest?
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Apr 22, 2017 19:39
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Nice try CIA
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Apr 22, 2017 20:32
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Mustached Demon posted:When was the last time you threw a chair through a window in protest? I've been pretty consistent in saying that people should be working towards making their own circumstances better by whatever means they have available, and that trying to fix the future is a waste of time and effort. A single person violently resisting the status quo isn't a force for change, it's just some guy getting himself killed for no reason.
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Apr 22, 2017 21:02
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Mustached Demon posted:When was the last time you threw a chair through a window in protest? I don't care if non violent protest are good or bad, but this is the dumbest fallacy. Imagine if an alcoholic told you that sobriety was the best way to live; would you smugly ask them how they'd know?
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Apr 22, 2017 21:18
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You all suck and hate fun.
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Apr 22, 2017 22:06
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Low-impact activity can help develop and mask high-impact activity. Additionally, it impacts culture and perceptions. It's useful in relation to a wide range of assumed climate change outcomes. Don't hate, peace
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Apr 22, 2017 22:08
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Evil_Greven posted:Even so, it's been going up about 2 ppm/yr lately. Oh, for sure, but I was just pointing out a possible misinterpretation
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Apr 22, 2017 22:12
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I'm sure a lot of y'all are very smart people take the time to exercise some google fu on the things that interest you. But maybe be open to the possibility that the folks we should be listening to on issues of strategy and organizing are the ones have been in the weeds with this for quite some time. Y'all are in this thread because you value expertise. Why all of a sudden do the experts no longer matter when they're giving you proactive recommendations of what you should be doing right now? Withdrawing into enclaves of spite and fear isn't helping anybody.
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Apr 22, 2017 22:27
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I thought this was a nice video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8MqTOEospfo
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Apr 22, 2017 23:00
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edit: wrong thread
Slow News Day fucked around with this message at 23:31 on Apr 22, 2017 |
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Apr 22, 2017 23:13
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enraged_camel posted:I wanted to buy Legion on iTunes but apparently FX put ads in every episode despite the season costing $19.99. Climates hosed m8 just torrent that poo poo
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Apr 22, 2017 23:27
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drat, wrong thread. and im not even drunk yet!
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Apr 22, 2017 23:32
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Legion is good I endorse this venture. Hope you like your expectations about media consumption to be endlessly hosed with.
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Apr 22, 2017 23:58
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Forever_Peace posted:I'm sure a lot of y'all are very smart people take the time to exercise some google fu on the things that interest you. I think it's a combo of cognitive dissonance and the daunting size of the problem. For one, we are legit hosed most likely. Second, it's easier to pass the buck and say it's a government level problem and personal action makes no difference. I live my life no differently now in comparison to before I knew anything about climate change. It's easier to say 'well my personal choices don't matter' than it is to change habits, especially when all of society is built around continuing those habits. It's not a good way to behave but I think that's what's going on with most people who are aware of the problem yet do nothing (or do little).
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Apr 23, 2017 00:11
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Why should I listen to science experts tell me the best way forward is to join white middle class marches? This is literally more HRC-style 'make the white professional class feel good' do nothingism.
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Apr 23, 2017 00:53
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for me at least, the whole debate is just intensely boring hair-splitting between "nuh-uh" and "sure but I'm not lifting a finger". nobody wants to talk about replacing the capitalist ideology of growth with some other thing. nobody wants to talk about the *real* lifestyle changes in the western world it would take to matter. nobody wants to talk about the tricky ethical challenges of population reduction. nobody wants to dwell on the holocaust-times-9-11 bodycount thats already well underway. its just a completely fake debate between "I don't buy it or care" and "I'm smart ur stoopid!" edit: its not about deniers, there will always be a massive portion of the population that is just plain wrong about any given thing. its about the believers being completely fake with an endless trove of excuses. StabbinHobo fucked around with this message at 01:16 on Apr 23, 2017 |
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Apr 23, 2017 01:13
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StabbinHobo posted:nobody wants to dwell on the holocaust-times-9-11 bodycount thats already well underway. lol, good job
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Apr 23, 2017 01:21
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Dead Reckoning posted:No government is ever going to do that, because no democratic government, and a non-zero number of undemocratic ones, will survive telling a significant fraction of their population that they have to be priced out of the ability to heat their homes and buy certain foods (since an increase in the price of energy will be felt across most sectors of the economy) for the greater good, while people in other countries continue to consume recklessly. The success of Republican messaging suggests you can get people to make all sorts of sacrifices as long as it appeals to a sense of in-group superiority and spite. We need a climate chauvinism movement.
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Apr 23, 2017 02:33
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I'll give that a try. We are all connected with nature. We are a part of it and it is a part of us. But Republicans are like, "Mmm, I am connected to my things and my money. My money is a part of me, mmmm."
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Apr 23, 2017 03:30
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At least there's a bit of climate change coverage on CNN today: http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/20/us/louisiana-climate-change-skeptics/index.html It's actually a pretty lovely truth-is-in-the-middle article, but there's a pretty poignant quote at the end from a Louisiana native who's been watching the Gulf slowly envelope the marsh forest for years: quote:"Just like Noah, we've been given some information about what is going to happen in the future, and we can prepare for that future, or we can decide to dismiss the facts," Foret says. "What we decide to do will directly impact the future of our families and our communities. Me, I'm going to build a boat. Facts don't change based on my ability to stomach them." The Noah link might be an effective tie-in for religious conservatives in some cases.
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Apr 23, 2017 03:37
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lol at building a boat
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Apr 23, 2017 03:48
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Polio Vax Scene posted:lol at building a goat
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Apr 23, 2017 03:49
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I'm pretty sure that's just another biblical reference for getting your poo poo together for the coming disaster.
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Apr 23, 2017 05:01
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ClimateState has a series of videos they've been putting out. Here's one from Earth Day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLg7gDU_xXk quote:Many of you have already taken such steps... Those are important actions, but at this point, there's no way to make the climate math work one person at a time. 
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Apr 23, 2017 05:11
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Forever_Peace posted:I'm sure a lot of y'all are very smart people take the time to exercise some google fu on the things that interest you. I like how the 'woke' protest going crowd co-opted a lot of southern colloquialisms, I read this post in the voice of Foghorn Leghorn. Maybe people in this thread will consider the ideas of the protesting "subject matter experts" when it can be demonstrated that protesting on the weekends with your friends affects real change in an objectively measurable way. People believe climate scientists due to rigorous studies, measurements, and peer review. That said, of course incrementalism works, if we keep building larger and larger towers, eventually we'll get to the moon.
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Apr 23, 2017 07:20
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Accretionist posted:I'll give that a try. sure if by 'republicans' you mean 'everyone to the right of dennis kucinich'
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Apr 23, 2017 14:01
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What do you mean incrementalism works? works for who? Cause I'm still looking at a global catastrophe that could have been stopped many decades ago by politicians that used incrementalism as a tool to appease their constituents. How the gently caress is incrementalism going to stop a problem that it created? how the gently caress are we going to slowly wade out of this problem when we needed to be taking action years ago? And honestly it's bizarre to think that little victories like these marches are going to help. The lobbyists and politicians making these decisions aren't nearly as stupid as you think. They know climate change exists for gently caress sakes. But any serious attempts to solve the issue could mean the collapse of housing, energy, manufacturing, consumer goods, agriculture. That's a gently caress load of money at stake. Just take a minute and put yourself in a rich person's shoes. Think what's going through their head right now, and what all their consultants, money men, rich colleagues are saying to them. They have two options: 1) Accept climate change exists and do something positive about it This means completely restructuring your business model to go green, which would mean risking a huge amounts of cash and easily tanking your company. If your company completely relies on fossil fuels, then lol. Pray that all your vendors, colleagues, shareholders are gonna be totally cool with becoming the vanguard for a green future. lol. Start pulling strings through your political connections and lobbyists to advocate green policy. Hopefully you don't mind waging war on every single person around you. You are now on a campaign to destroy a lot of your friends bottom line. Your kids, cousins, siblings, parents are going to hate you because you've completely isolated yourself from your everyone you've known. Congratulations, everyone you know hates you. And you probably lost a shitload of money too! Or go another route.... 2) Accept climate change exists and accumulate as much wealth as possible. The future is uncertain. Everything might go sour very quickly. You have the opportunity to protect yourself, your family, and your friends as much possible. So you take it. You double down even. You bask in your wealth. Enjoy life as much as you can. And construct a contingency plan for your future in the Anthropocene. hard loving choices here
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Apr 23, 2017 14:23
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Option 3) Die in the middle of a roaring mob that rigged a guillotine out of an old dishwasher, because Rime is right and we need to start dragging sceptics into the street and killing them.
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Apr 23, 2017 14:30
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well, yeah, of course.
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Apr 23, 2017 14:34
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Look at the bastion for liberal wealth: Warren Buffet. Check out his lists of assets: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Berkshire_Hathaway Take a quick loving gander and think to yourself the nightmare scenario it would be to go green in all those businesses. How many stakeholders, operators, vendors (overseas and local) you would have to deal with. loving half of those businesses would tank. Just look at how many products are coming in from China. lol. just lol.
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Apr 23, 2017 14:42
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Potato Salad posted:Option 3) Die in the middle of a roaring mob that rigged a guillotine out of an old dishwasher, because Rime is right and we need to start dragging sceptics into the street and killing them. Rather than spending 12+ hours a day agonizing about how to make freeper-esque posts on Something Awful about all the things you wish you could do, you could actually take action. Unfortunately, the most you'll do is post about how great an idea climate-inspired vengeance killing actually is, because if you actually had the fortitude to get out there and really FIGHT for the things you ardently post about on a dead comedy forum, you wouldn't be posting now and hopefully ever again. You can argue that this "lack of conviction" is why we're hosed, but it's ignoring the very basic reality that We Are Already hosed. It's too late. You can pretend that posting about how you're going to go outside of your house for once to get a tan, incidentally, as you hunt down people with the money and the resources responsible for how hosed we are will actually accomplish anything. It's fantasy. It will accomplish nothing, because the most conviction you show about the subject matter is essentially left-leaning internet tough guy posts. It will accomplish nothing because the game is already loving over. Short of literally shutting down civilization as we know it, our coastlines will not look the same in the next century. We will have literally BILLIONS of people seeking a way out of whatever lovely situation caused by climate change. If Europe thinks immigration is bad now, not one nation is prepared for the next century. It's impossible to be, because nobody has the will, the ability, or both to make ready for it. These are things we cannot even begin to "solve" now, and the idea that killing "sceptics" in the streets is suddenly going to change things for the better is an idea so bankrupt that the only way it could get sillier is if it was written out as some sort of self-insert fanfiction by This loving Guy. You and Rime are posting self-indulgent horseshit to feel better about yourselves, and not because you actually have a solution that works in reality. Running around with guns and killing the "bad guys destroying our way of life" is the fantasy 3 Percenters at the US-Mexico border actually put effort into living out on a daily basis, and they are no closer to "fixing 'merica" than some Goon is to addressing climate change by posting about how we need to start considering extra-judicial killings a real loving option. If you don't think the response will be disproportionate and horrific, if you aren't actually prepared for what it means to commit to armed struggle against overwhelming odds, with a public that is already apathetic to the cause and will be more willing to listen to those who will demonize you for being exactly what you are, then you're dead in the water years before you even start getting ready to start.
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Apr 23, 2017 15:16
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Blockade posted:Maybe people in this thread will consider the ideas of the protesting "subject matter experts" when it can be demonstrated that protesting on the weekends with your friends affects real change in an objectively measurable way. People believe climate scientists due to rigorous studies, measurements, and peer review. That's certainly fair! Poking around a bit, it looks like the best data set on 20th century protest movements at the moment is Chenworth & Stephen 2011, who kindly host their raw data here (warning: direct download link). It contains extensive data on 323 resistance movements since 1900 (seriously this must have taken for-goddamned-ever to put together). I could summarize their findings, but I can't resist a new data set, so let's poke around. I do want to note, though, that this data only goes from 1900 to 2006, so the failures of the Arab Spring aren't incorporated here. You can follow along in R as well, but folks in these sorts of fields always seem to use STATA for everything (god knows why), so that's how the files come. Grab the "haven" package in R and you can load it in no problem. So it looks like their primary outcome for movements is coded as "failure", "success", and "partial success". To me, that sounds a lot like an ordinal variable (where success > partial success > failure), so we can start with an ordinal logistic regression. For now I'll just start with whether or not the resistance was violent (where the success of nonviolent protest is the question under discussion). Here's the output:  The coefficient for "nonviolent protest" (vs violent resistance) is in the right direction - a nonviolent protest increases the log-odds of obtaining a partially successful or fully successful outcome. And it's almost certainly significant in a frequentist sense (any t-statistic over 3 is almost definitely significant given the sample size we're working with). Of course, it's possible that "partially successful" isn't really "in between" success and failure, but is instead a dump category for weird compromise outcomes that wasn't really inside the protest's goals. Instead of looking at the odds of "jumping up the outcome order", we can model the odds that nonviolent resistance increases the likelihood of a "partial success" vs a failure separately from the likelihood of success vs failure, each as their own category. This is called "multinomial regression". We're still modeling log-odds of outcomes, but our assumptions of what those outcomes mean is a little different. Here's the output:  (note: for some reason they coded "failure = 3, partial success = 4, success = 5". I don't know why. But I manually turned them into categories, so the coefficients for "4" tell you whether the predictor is changing log-odds of getting a partial success instead of a failure, while the the coefficients for "5" tell you whether the predictor is changing log-odds of full success vs failure). Different assumptions, same story. And a slightly better model fit, for that matter. Nonviolent protest increased the odds of a full or partial success (vs. other forms of protest). Now, it's certainly possible that a third confounding variable is responsible for this effect. Like, maybe nonviolent protests tend to have systematically different goals? Or take place in different regions of the planet? Luckily, they pulled all that data too. Here we control for the goals of the protest, and can see if nonviolent protest still accounts for increased odds of success even after accounting for the type of protest it is. The types they coded are "fselfdet" for "self determination / anti-occupation", "regchange" for "regime change", "secession" for secession, and "other". Here's the multinomial model:  Yep - even after controlling for goals/type, nonviolent protest was still effective. Similarly, we can also control for region of the country:  Yep, still checks out. Here's the code to run this yourself: code:Chenworth & Stephen specified a number of interesting findings with this data, but I haven't read their book and don't know their methods and so can't endorse that they actually know what the hell they are doing (I am inherently skeptical of anybody that uses STATA as a default). quote:They find that:
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Apr 23, 2017 15:52
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Lol nice except the writers put forth the argument that the Palestineans would be better off protesting Israeli occupation nonviolently rather than futilely attacking them. I think that kinda summarises their world view.
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Apr 23, 2017 16:05
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I think the time has come again to talk about local action available to us. Ask me about canvassing for candidates supporting local public transit and green initiatives. I look forward to hearing about how local and individual action is pointless, but also posting about climate on the inter-nette is similarly pointless  Twist ending: its all pointless, but hey, doing stuff irl is fun and really drat informative. <meme of The Architect from The Matrix talking about how we've been here six times before, everything is a cycle .jpeg>
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Apr 23, 2017 16:05
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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/855901315305795584
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Apr 23, 2017 16:06
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Yeah, I got that tweet this AM from a Bernie->Trumper, oh man see Trump isn't as anti-environment as you liberals are screeching he is"
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Apr 23, 2017 16:08
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Jesus Christ what a lot of effort put toward trying to convince people that there is a way to nonviolently dismantle the entirety of capitalism and consumerism in an incredibly short period of time, costing everyone in the world who matters even a little bit billions upon billions of dollars. I think the problem here is that anyone who thinks this issue is politically solvable within the systems we currently have does not understand the actual severity of the climate issues we face in the next few decades. The utter naivety of it all at least gives the nihilist crowd something to laugh at while the world burns.
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Apr 23, 2017 16:12
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Potato Salad posted:I think the time has come again to talk about local action available to us. Ask me about canvassing for candidates supporting local public transit and green initiatives. I haven't mentioned this here, but I recently went to a coffee hour for my local state representative and I was literally the only person there. We nerded out for a solid hour about climate policy, urban design and zoning ordinance (with a 10-minute sidebar on "bus queue jumps"), and immigration / police issues. She has been in regular email contact with me since and is staking out strong positions on a number of bills that could make a big difference in our state. Like, the bar to clear for getting involved is surprisingly low. Take a shower, don't be an rear end, know your poo poo, and start showing the hell up. Also, I get happy every time I see a Shrike post get blocked. The ignore list is a beautiful thing. =)
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Apr 23, 2017 16:15
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although I make the suggestion that nothing you do really matters, there are things you can and should do. I spend most of my free time volunteering and finding better ways to strengthen my local community. My philosophy is that anything on a national level is pretty much a lost cause, but you can still make a big impact on the way the future unfolds for the people directly around you. A strong community will be much more resilient to the effects of climate change.
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Apr 23, 2017 16:15
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I agree that nonviolent resistance won't fix this issue but it would be great if we don't advocate forming underground cells and literally killing people for their beliefs. This isn't LF.
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Apr 23, 2017 16:18
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