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Maybe I'm just lacking in imagination (or in EDH knowledge) but what makes Yisan, the Wanderer Bard an oppressive commander? It just seems like a very slow way to get small creatures out of your deck.
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May 3, 2017 19:35
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AceClown posted:How do Bots do it? Do they just buy them for slightly under the natural EV then make profit by opening and selling on the cards? There are people buying them and consuming them... It's weird!
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May 3, 2017 19:36
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MrBling posted:Maybe I'm just lacking in imagination (or in EDH knowledge) but what makes Yisan, the Wanderer Bard an oppressive commander? It just seems like a very slow way to get small creatures out of your deck. A toolbox tutor who can find whatever card you need slowly but surely?
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May 3, 2017 19:37
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MrBling posted:Maybe I'm just lacking in imagination (or in EDH knowledge) but what makes Yisan, the Wanderer Bard an oppressive commander? It just seems like a very slow way to get small creatures out of your deck. Every turn you get to tutor a creature and cheat it onto the battlefield for 3 mana, and if unanswered you can cheat some pretty big creatures in. That seems pretty insanely good to me.
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May 3, 2017 19:38
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You still need it to stick around and accumulate counters though. I guess they're just assuming that it somehow stays on the battlefield? Every single EDH game I've seen or played in has been stuffed to the gills with mass and spot removal.
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May 3, 2017 19:39
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clamiam45 posted:There are people buying them and consuming them... It's weird! I'd say I'm surprised but then I know plenty of people who will buy a full booster box and just sit and open them without even thinking of playing a limited game with them so yeah. Whales be whales i suppose.
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May 3, 2017 19:41
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Walked posted:I've played a bunch of MTGO drafts now; and my biggest complaint is that the time allotment seems insufficient for this set. I've won several matches to time (and lost once), whereas I've never run into clock issues in other formats before. The true MTGO experience is playing a game when both players have removed all their stops due to their clocks being under 60 seconds and they are auto passing other than to discard. You unlock an achievement by winning the game, another achievement unlocks when you're on game two and you lost game one but you win the match due your opponent running out of time
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May 3, 2017 19:55
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Fish Of Doom posted:Finally, the Prophet of Kruphix has come back to EDH! That seemed like a hilariously big oversight. Glad I only play in-person paper EDH, prophet is stupidly op.
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May 3, 2017 20:01
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RembrandtQEinstein posted:That seemed like a hilariously big oversight. Glad I only play in-person paper EDH, prophet is stupidly op. Everyone's always "it dies to lightning bolt!" despite the fact that lightning bolt is hilariously underpowered in EDH, and really shouldn't be in most decks. Lightning Helix is barely worth a mention in EDH. If someone plays Prophet without the counterspells to back it up they're terrible at magic.
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May 3, 2017 20:04
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RembrandtQEinstein posted:That seemed like a hilariously big oversight. Glad I only play in-person paper EDH, prophet is stupidly op. It's fine in 1v1 where it does its job, but it's a huge investment of mana to lose if it gets beaned quickly. Why use one list for 1v1 and MP?
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May 3, 2017 20:04
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I finally had both Archfiend of Ifnir and Hapatra in my hand and then my opponent played a loving Vizier of Remedies. This fucken game sometimes.  RembrandtQEinstein posted:That seemed like a hilariously big oversight. Glad I only play in-person paper EDH, prophet is stupidly op. It's not a hilariously big oversight. Prophet isn't that much more powerful than Seedborn Muse in 1v1. Angry Grimace fucked around with this message at 20:08 on May 3, 2017 |
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May 3, 2017 20:05
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Orange Fluffy Sheep posted:It's fine in 1v1 where it does its job, but it's a huge investment of mana to lose if it gets beaned quickly. Because that is what is easiest on MODO.
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May 3, 2017 20:05
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Sickening posted:Because that is what is easiest on MODO. I don't see why having an extra banned list is that hard but MODO is a magical wonderland with strange bugs so who knows.
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May 3, 2017 20:09
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Dehtraen posted:The true MTGO experience is playing a game when both players have removed all their stops due to their clocks being under 60 seconds and they are auto passing other than to discard. You unlock an achievement by winning the game, another achievement unlocks when you're on game two and you lost game one but you win the match due your opponent running out of time The last time I saw this happen, it was cube and the streamer lost because he miracled a Terminus while 5 seconds ahead. It truly was a miracle.
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May 3, 2017 20:13
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I also love how they have unbanned Recurring Nightmare, cuz that makes me giggle. Sure there are some lovely commanders that you can have around, but there's a lot of fun ones to play as well. We will have to see if this is the actual death knell to commander on MTGO, but somehow I doubt it.
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May 3, 2017 21:14
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Best thing out of this is that MTGfinance doesn't know which banlist to spec off of.
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May 3, 2017 21:19
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Hey all, so I started making that match-up matrix I mentioned a few pages ago. Here's the link. Any help or opinions would be much appreciated, I left comments on if you want to leave notes instead of making posts. I started adding a few numbers but some probably have to be revised, it's mostly based on guesswork/personal experience. Basically the deck you have is the left column, the deck your opponent is playing is the top row, and the number corresponding to those is how good or bad of a match-up you'd expect. The numbers are how far off from an even match-up (a .5 winrate). I also am not sure what to use for the last two slots, I can add more than 8 total, but I don't want to get that number too high. I'd just use the one that MTG Goldfish makes from gleaning MTGO results but they aren't allowed to publish that anymore! 
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May 3, 2017 21:53
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ThePeavstenator posted:Hey all, so I started making that match-up matrix I mentioned a few pages ago. Here's the link. Any help or opinions would be much appreciated, I left comments on if you want to leave notes instead of making posts. I started adding a few numbers but some probably have to be revised, it's mostly based on guesswork/personal experience. Aren't Dredge and Storm really popular on MTGO just because they are cheap? Might want to add those in too.
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May 3, 2017 22:00
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First comment, I find that less intuitive that just having 0.5 mean an even matchup. That way you can just re-format into percentages if you want. Second, that should all be calculate-able. When you win/lose, enter your deck, your opponent's deck, and the match result (maybe even the game result if you want to distinguish between pre and post board), and have the spreadsheet do the math. Just because a matchup "feels" positive doesn't mean it actually is. Edit: I'm experimenting with a Google Sheet to see if what I'm thinking is possible. PhyrexianLibrarian fucked around with this message at 22:16 on May 3, 2017 |
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May 3, 2017 22:01
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ThePeavstenator posted:Hey all, so I started making that match-up matrix I mentioned a few pages ago. Here's the link. Any help or opinions would be much appreciated, I left comments on if you want to leave notes instead of making posts. I started adding a few numbers but some probably have to be revised, it's mostly based on guesswork/personal experience. Can you throw in Bant Company if possible?
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May 3, 2017 22:06
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PhyrexianLibrarian posted:First comment, I find that less intuitive that just having 0.5 mean an even matchup. That way you can just re-format into percentages if you want. I'm not actually trying to personally solve modern here, I'm just trying to model the harmonic behavior of deck selection and I thought it would be interesting to at least get some approximations of reality on the matchups. e: Point taken on the percentages, but they aren't really there for the win percentage so much as the expected utility. This is just the data I need for a Mathematica program I'm making. ThePeavstenator fucked around with this message at 22:20 on May 3, 2017 |
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May 3, 2017 22:15
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What's your purpose here? Even if you could get people to agree I'm not sure what you can learn that you couldn't just by pondering to yourself for a minute or two. Spoiler alert: Most decks will be 42-50% against the majority of other decks.
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May 3, 2017 22:16
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:What's your purpose here? Even if you could get people to agree I'm not sure what you can learn that you couldn't just by pondering to yourself for a minute or two. Modeling harmonic behavior of deck selection. Basically the end result of this is going to show what the cycles of the meta look like. It's not going to be perfect but I thought it might be interesting to share the results of a rough approximation rather than just turning in a project with "Decks 1-8" and made-up numbers in each match-up.
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May 3, 2017 22:24
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I don't know how to feel about the Top ban, honestly.
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May 3, 2017 22:34
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Top ban is great.
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May 3, 2017 22:36
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mcmagic posted:Aren't Dredge and Storm really popular on MTGO just because they are cheap? Might want to add those in too. TheKingofSprings posted:Can you throw in Bant Company if possible? I added these, although I just added a category for general CoCo decks, I don't want this matrix to get too large. ThePeavstenator fucked around with this message at 22:48 on May 3, 2017 |
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May 3, 2017 22:36
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One deck you should add is Eldrazi Tron, it's very distinct from Bant Eldrazi and Gx Tron, and also probably better right now. Or at least clarify what the Eldrazi tag means.
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May 3, 2017 22:40
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ThePeavstenator posted:Modeling harmonic behavior of deck selection. Basically the end result of this is going to show what the cycles of the meta look like. It's not going to be perfect but I thought it might be interesting to share the results of a rough approximation rather than just turning in a project with "Decks 1-8" and made-up numbers in each match-up. I'm trying to find it but I remember reading a paper from like 10-15 years ago where rock-paper-scissors was used in the same way to model evolutionary processes. A small deviation in strategy (pick rock 40% of the time instead of 33%) set off a cyclical pattern where the whole population "evolved" winning strategies, then shifted as the "metagame" changed. It makes for some fun graphs, but it doesn't really assist in telling you whether rock is "better" than paper for all the reasons you just said. If anyone is interested in a data-driven version of this (submit your match results, see the matrix), I could use a weekend project.
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May 3, 2017 22:40
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I would recommend adding Scapeshift too, it's always around and has a different matchup profile than Tron especially now that Tron has moved from straight ramp to an Eldrazi deck.
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May 3, 2017 22:45
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PhyrexianLibrarian posted:I'm trying to find it but I remember reading a paper from like 10-15 years ago where rock-paper-scissors was used in the same way to model evolutionary processes. A small deviation in strategy (pick rock 40% of the time instead of 33%) set off a cyclical pattern where the whole population "evolved" winning strategies, then shifted as the "metagame" changed. It makes for some fun graphs, but it doesn't really assist in telling you whether rock is "better" than paper for all the reasons you just said. Yeah that's exactly what I'm talking about. The difference here is that there are dozens of hands you can throw and they don't only win or lose. Rock beats Scissors 100% of the time but Tron beats Jund 75% of the time. Bonus posted:One deck you should add is Eldrazi Tron, it's very distinct from Bant Eldrazi and Gx Tron, and also probably better right now. Or at least clarify what the Eldrazi tag means. Tales of Woe posted:I would recommend adding Scapeshift too, it's always around and has a different matchup profile than Tron especially now that Tron has moved from straight ramp to an Eldrazi deck. Will do, and I think I'll actually just drop Grixis Control and Tron and have both flavors of Eldrazi decks. e: How differently do the Jund and Grixis versions of Death's Shadow play? They're both pretty prominent and I don't want to leave them out. ThePeavstenator fucked around with this message at 22:49 on May 3, 2017 |
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May 3, 2017 22:45
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ThePeavstenator posted:I'm not actually trying to personally solve modern here, I'm just trying to model the harmonic behavior of deck selection and I thought it would be interesting to at least get some approximations of reality on the matchups. This is based on self-reported survey data? 
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May 3, 2017 22:48
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Yeah, Grixis Control can be dropped. Grixis and Jund shadow play out similarly enough that I think you'd want them grouped together. They share the same core (Street Wraith, Shadow, Thoughtseize) and one uses Goyf/Mishra's Bauble while the other uses Tasigur/Thought Scour.
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May 3, 2017 22:50
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clamiam45 posted:This is based on self-reported survey data? I was going to post the results when I was done, but I thought that getting some input on the numbers first would make the results more useful and also help avoid the inevitable "this is not even close to reality" posts when I randomly guess a matchup I'm not familiar with. If WotC didn't decide to make MTG Goldfish stop publishing their matchup matrix for some godforsaken reason I'd just use that. e: Also thanks for the opinions so far everyone, the decks are definitely no where near what I'd choose if I was doing this by myself.
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May 3, 2017 22:54
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clamiam45 posted:This is based on self-reported survey data? I legit don't get how MTGGoldfish could have scraped MTGO results anyways. It's not like they'd ever publish an API for that data, so were they just scanning the old published HTML versions right off the website? Because that's the real if so.
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May 3, 2017 23:02
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PhyrexianLibrarian posted:I legit don't get how MTGGoldfish could have scraped MTGO results anyways. It's not like they'd ever publish an API for that data, so were they just scanning the old published HTML versions right off the website? Because that's the real They had bots "watch" MTGO replays by speeding through them and recording results.
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May 3, 2017 23:05
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ThePeavstenator posted:I was going to post the results when I was done, but I thought that getting some input on the numbers first would make the results more useful and also help avoid the inevitable "this is not even close to reality" posts when I randomly guess a matchup I'm not familiar with. I'm Bayesian through and through so I like the idea of coalescing expert opinion into a prior probability... But... Selection bias is very scary!
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May 3, 2017 23:28
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clamiam45 posted:I'm Bayesian through and through so I like the idea of coalescing expert opinion into a prior probability... But... Selection bias is very scary! Agreed, but this isn't really about data collection. It's about decision theory given a set a choices under the assumption that the payoffs are given.
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May 3, 2017 23:36
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Sickening posted:I feel like this is pretty much them taking over commander right? My only hope is that Sheldon does something goony enough that they cut ties entirely. 
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May 4, 2017 01:29
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What do you mean by "Valakut" deck in your sheet- Scapeshift decks, Through The Breach decks, or both? From my (limited) local observations they fare quite differently in the same environment. Also where's Mill 
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May 4, 2017 01:39
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C-Euro posted:What do you mean by "Valakut" deck in your sheet- Scapeshift decks, Through The Breach decks, or both? From my (limited) local observations they fare quite differently in the same environment. Both, I see tons of them at my LGS and the difference isn't too big. One powers out Prime Times to get lands and kill with Valakut triggers, and the other casts a spell to get lands and kill with Valakut triggers. I could break them up but Valakut decks seem pretty samey in terms of what they beat and what they lose to.
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May 4, 2017 01:43
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