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Yaya
Nov 14, 2012

vancloober cablucks

Heliogabalos posted:

how realistic is the possibility of trading Tanev? It seems like a really stupid idea from any perspective but it keeps coming up in discussion.

It's very realistic and not dumb, either. By the time the Canucks are going to be competitive again, Tanev will be past his prime so it's best to trade him at his peak for good young talent/high pick(s). Chris Tanev is basically what the Edmonton Oilers *thought* Adam Larsson was and the Devils got Taylor Hall for him.

Of course, the Canucks return for Tanev won't be anywhere near as good because life is pain but it's the right thing to do.

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SoggyBobcat
Oct 2, 2013

Yaya posted:

It's very realistic and not dumb, either. By the time the Canucks are going to be competitive again, Tanev will be past his prime so it's best to trade him at his peak for good young talent/high pick(s). Chris Tanev is basically what the Edmonton Oilers *thought* Adam Larsson was and the Devils got Taylor Hall for him.

Of course, the Canucks return for Tanev won't be anywhere near as good because life is pain but it's the right thing to do.
It's an incredibly stupid idea. Trading Tanev (and/or Edler) means exposing Hutton, Stecher, Tryamkin, Juolevi, and potentially any other young defenders the Canucks might pick up to tough minutes and getting ventilated, and potentially ruining their long-term viability. You actually need veteran defenders to saw off tough minutes against tough competition, especially on defense.

Heliogabalos
Apr 16, 2017
you can still key in codes for the cheapest of item (for example, celery instead of organic whatever) and no one pays any attention and it saves me a fuckton of money on organic produce
/\/\ I agree, other than if they get someone like Hall in return, I could live with that and laugh at Sbisa for another season (Gudbranson seems like the logical choice for Vegas, to me)

Yaya posted:

It's very realistic and not dumb, either. By the time the Canucks are going to be competitive again, Tanev will be past his prime so it's best to trade him at his peak for good young talent/high pick(s). Chris Tanev is basically what the Edmonton Oilers *thought* Adam Larsson was and the Devils got Taylor Hall for him.

Of course, the Canucks return for Tanev won't be anywhere near as good because life is pain but it's the right thing to do.

the return has to be pretty high, I'd imagine, for a middling team or early exit (Chicago? LOL), but what it leaves them is absolutely nothing. Edler is okay. But Sbisa, Gudbranson are garbage (and we're losing one of them regardless), which leaves two rookies and Biega. And Utica. Juolevi, maybe.

They spent their entire year stocking up the d-core and without Tanev they would have one legitimate top four defenceman. Is this not an accurate assessment?

Boomer The Cannon
Oct 27, 2011

Gotta see it live!


CBJSprague24 posted:

I didn't include this quote in my last post but I feel as though there needs to be a draft list of first names proposed before myself and my hopefully future wife if I get into that position someday do the nasty in hopes of procreating and if most any of ^those^ appear, we're gonna have to have a talk.


Gilbert Brule Sprague

Yaya
Nov 14, 2012

vancloober cablucks
The Canucks need to rebuild and the first step of a rebuild is to trade your prime aged assets for younger assets that'll be in their prime when you're ready to compete again. The Canucks defense is going to be a disaster with or without him, and you might as well give the Ben Huttons and Troy Stechers more ice time.

2017 was bad but 2018 should be worse. It's best to just embrace the tank and get a top 4 player from what should be a deep draft.

SoggyBobcat
Oct 2, 2013

No, what the Ben Huttons and Troy Stechers need is not more ice time, but sheltered minutes that allow them build up and round out their game, not tough ice time against top-quality competition that erodes their confidence and increases frustration. These aren't grade A prospects that you can throw to the wolves and expect a superstar to come out on the other side; you actually have to nurture them.

Teemu Pokemon
Jun 19, 2004

To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause
I'm really digging the contrarian counter-counter-counter culture in this thread that wants to defend ridiculous poo poo like a child having to spend at least the first 18 years of his life with a name like Krz because "you're just like, old, man!!"

As someone with a pretty ridiculous last name, let me assure you that if my parents had actually chosen that, I would've spent my entire childhood lifting weights and my 18th birthday present would've been to beat the poo poo out of them with my bare hands.


It's a goddamn person, not a loving hermit crab.


e:

Stretch Marx posted:

I don't care if a kid's name is spelled Krz in place of Cruise as long as the kid I say Cruise to responds. If he wants to change it's spelling in the future is his prerogative. If it's a clerical thing to worry about, that's what copy/paste is for.

He'll respond to the 40th substitute teacher who asks "Is there a...'Krrr..iizzzz" here?" But not after rolling his eyes, sighing, and being driven ever closer to a life of skinning prostitutes.

Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 00:27 on May 6, 2017

Powershift
Nov 23, 2009



Old man yells at klwd

Stretch Marx
Apr 29, 2008

I'm ok with this.

grack posted:

So what you're saying is that we live in a terrible world.

The most powerful person on the planet has a last name that is a synonym for farting and named his son "Baron". The head of the RNC is a tiny white guy named Reince Priebus. You tell me.

Stretch Marx
Apr 29, 2008

I'm ok with this.

Teemu Pokemon posted:


e:


He'll respond to the 40th substitute teacher who asks "Is there a...'Krrr..iizzzz" here?" But not after rolling his eyes, sighing, and being driven ever closer to a life of skinning prostitutes.

Maybe the teacher could be somehow told ahead of time. If only the technology existed to allow that. Alas poor Krz will forever be misprounced because no one is able to tell anyone else what they know. I don't even know how we're talking to be frank.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Teemu Pokemon posted:

I'm really digging the contrarian counter-counter-counter culture in this thread that wants to defend ridiculous poo poo like a child having to spend at least the first 18 years of his life with a name like Krz because "you're just like, old, man!!"

Caring what other people name their kids is the weirdest thing to me. Is this Iceland?

Also, a really large number of the names that are bothering people are just old and not made up or whatever.

Of course, my parents chose my name including consideration specifically based on having nicknames they liked and that weren't super easy to tease so I didn't have to live with weird stuff. Then again, as was noted before, so many kids have unconventional names: is Kaedyn going to pull off some sick burns on Braedyn?

Cartoon Man
Jan 31, 2004


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Dd7FixvoKBw

Jay Quellen here?

Kilza
Oct 4, 2013

Darling signed a 4 year deal with the Canes.

https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/860646367236153346

$4.15 mill AAV

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Kilza posted:

Darling signed a 4 year deal with the Canes.

https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/860646367236153346

$4.15 mill AAV

This team does not have a drat clue how to fix their goaltending problems. Godddamn this set of moves is just terrible.

Powershift
Nov 23, 2009


There are only so many "team carrying " goalies out there, and nobody is going to give theirs up. You have to gamble on who you think the next one is going to be.

I didn't watch many Blackhawks games this year, so i don't know if Darling is worth going from $600k to $4.15m, but if it's anything like what Dubnyk did when he went from the Oilers to the Wild, it might be worth it.

THE MACHO MAN
Nov 15, 2007

...Carey...

draw me like one of your French Canadian girls

hahahahah holy poo poo he smoked him

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Dubnyk was a first round pick who had some decent NHL success as a starter and a single terrible year. He also played out of his mind for Minnesota for 40 games before they signed him to a long term deal. He had like 3x as many NHL games in his career as Darling does.

On the other hand Darling's ES SV% is really good. I just think the combo of sending a high third round pick for a guy you're then going to overpay is a perfect example of Carolina goaltending management. I also didn't think the Talbot deal was smart though, and this is probably what Darling used as a comp.

Powershift
Nov 23, 2009


Darling is also apparently 6'6", and 232lbs, so they might just be betting on a physically larger goalie for when the gear gets smaller.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

THE MACHO MAN posted:

hahahahah holy poo poo he smoked him
https://twitter.com/darina_vymetali/status/860609483785023488

pseudodragon
Jun 16, 2007


4.15 ties for 25th in goalie salaries with the ones behind him being mainly RFA deals so the contract so it's not like they are overpaying if he's basically going to be the lowest paid starter in the league.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

pseudodragon posted:

4.15 ties for 25th in goalie salaries with the ones behind him being mainly RFA deals so the contract so it's not like they are overpaying if he's basically going to be the lowest paid starter in the league.

The issue isn't the overpaying, it's that they're committing to a guy who has been a backup for the last three years to be their starter for the next four when he's never demonstrated that he can carry the load. It's great if it works out, but it's yet another lovely goaltending decision if it doesn't, from a team that has been making lovely goaltending decisions for the last decade.

pseudodragon
Jun 16, 2007


Jordan7hm posted:

The issue isn't the overpaying, it's that they're committing to a guy who has been a backup for the last three years to be their starter for the next four when he's never demonstrated that he can carry the load. It's great if it works out, but it's yet another lovely goaltending decision if it doesn't, from a team that has been making lovely goaltending decisions for the last decade.

Well yeah, player evaluation is another thing, but he was going to get at least that somewhere else so it's not like he would have settled for less to prove it and anyone proven would have cost significantly more. Are the Canes able to do that?

Anyone else they could have gotten are other good backups looking for a shot who would have the same question marks, proven failed starters or prospects with even less of a track record.

grack
Jan 10, 2012

COACH TOTORO SAY REFEREE CAN BANISH WHISTLE TO LAND OF WIND AND GHOSTS!

pseudodragon posted:

Well yeah, player evaluation is another thing, but he was going to get at least that somewhere else so it's not like he would have settled for less to prove it and anyone proven would have cost significantly more. Are the Canes able to do that?

Pretty big assumption to make here.

hifi
Jul 25, 2012

My understanding was all the GMs thought dubnyk was done before he got to arizona, so I'm not sure "only one bad year" is selling it right. And then on top of that this was at the tail end of coyotes goalies having hot years and going elsewhere to suck, so Dubnyk really wasn't the sure bet you seem to be making him out to be. Maybe chad johnson or greiss would be better comparisons, although there's a bunch of comparisons with bad goalies that probably fit as well.

That said Darling bouncing between the echl and the ahl and also being fairly old with limited nhl starts makes signing him to a 4 year deal interesting to say the least. I guess if he really does suck then it's not like he really screws with whatever playoff window the canes have in mind.

edit: and with respect to salary, it doesn't really matter how much he costs relative to other starting goalies because if he sucks then suddenly you have a 4.5MM backup goalie and your goalie tandem costs 10MM like dallas

hifi fucked around with this message at 02:13 on May 6, 2017

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

hifi posted:

My understanding was all the GMs thought dubnyk was done before he got to arizona, so I'm not sure "only one bad year" is selling it right. And then on top of that this was at the tail end of coyotes goalies having hot years and going elsewhere to suck, so Dubnyk really wasn't the sure bet you seem to be making him out to be. Maybe chad johnson or greiss would be better comparisons, although there's a bunch of comparisons with bad goalies that probably fit as well.

That said Darling bouncing between the echl and the ahl and also being fairly old with limited nhl starts makes signing him to a 4 year deal interesting to say the least. I guess if he really does suck then it's not like he really screws with whatever playoff window the canes have in mind.

edit: and with respect to salary, it doesn't really matter how much he costs relative to other starting goalies because if he sucks then suddenly you have a 4.5MM backup goalie and your goalie tandem costs 10MM like dallas

Dubnyk played well enough for Minnesota to get a Vezina nomination and make the second all star team before Minnesota gave him that contract. The situation with Dubnyk isn't even remotely comparable.

e: hell, dude was 4th in hart voting that year. if Darling had a year like that obviously I wouldn't question this deal.

Powershift
Nov 23, 2009


Ignoring the intangibles, Before going to Minnesota, Dubnyk was 9-5-2 and 0.916 as Arizona's backup. Last year in Chicago, Darling was 18-5-5 and 0.923 in Chicago.

Dubnyk turned from an $800k backup in Arizona to a $4.3m starter in Minnesota.

the only real difference is the mid-season trade which let the Wild try before they buy. With the teams that desperately need a goalie, It's probably not worth the risk signing Darling to a 1 year tryout, if he's hot, you'll be back to bidding on a hot goalie. If he sucks, trade him, he'll still be a step up for Colorado or Calgary.

hifi
Jul 25, 2012

Going back to the market value argument someone above had, I think if he gets his 4.5MM deal on the open market then fine, that's what he's worth, but trading a 3rd for a month of his rights and then signing him to what sounds like a UFA-cost deal isn't a good use of the team's resources. It's slightly better than lighting your pick on fire for the privilege of hearing jimmy vesey's voice on the phone.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Powershift posted:

Ignoring the intangibles, Before going to Minnesota, Dubnyk was 9-5-2 and 0.916 as Arizona's backup. Last year in Chicago, Darling was 18-5-5 and 0.923 in Chicago.

Dubnyk turned from an $800k backup in Arizona to a $4.3m starter in Minnesota.

the only real difference is the mid-season trade which let the Wild try before they buy. With the teams that desperately need a goalie, It's probably not worth the risk signing Darling to a 1 year tryout, if he's hot, you'll be back to bidding on a hot goalie. If he sucks, trade him, he'll still be a step up for Colorado or Calgary.

Dubnyk turned from an $800k backup in Arizona to an $800k starter in Minnesota who proceeded to put up fantastic numbers for the next 39 games, lead them to a playoff berth, and finish third in Vezina voting.

If Darling sucks nobody is going to take that deal. Carolina is going to eat it.

Mike_V
Jul 31, 2004

3/18/2023: Day of the Dorks

Jordan7hm posted:

This team does not have a drat clue how to fix their goaltending problems. Godddamn this set of moves is just terrible.

Yeah, this seems like kind of a ridiculous deal.

pseudodragon
Jun 16, 2007


grack posted:

Pretty big assumption to make here.

It's literally one of the cheapest UFA starter deals. If Darling is a starter then he'll get that money somewhere.

I don't know enough enough about goalie voodoo to know if he is or now. It's possible that the Canes were the only ones that thought he was a starter but what I've read puts him near the top,of the list for teams looking for a new goalie, so Dallas or someone like that would probably have poked around.

I'm just pointing out that the options for the Canes weren't Darling or someone better. Anyone they could have gotten would have the same question marks unless they were willing to up their price. If 4.15/3 on a good backup is too big of a risk, your goalie options are draft, pray and eat a couple of tank years or up your price range.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

You could give Anders Nillson or Bernier a lot less money/term and probably have about equal goaltending.


Not to mention you could more than likely work out some deal with Vegas or another team that has to expose a good young backup, and give up a similar asset and pay less money.

Kalenn Istarion
Nov 2, 2012

Maybe Senpai will finally notice me now that I've dropped :fivebux: on this snazzy av

Kilza posted:

What the hell, how is anybody supposed to tell them apart? Clearly they should be re-named to Liam, Lyam, Leeam and Leeyahm. :colbert:

This might blow your mind but I just put their last name on their name tag instead of their first name

Sharks Eat Bear
Dec 25, 2004

That's a stupid contract, lol at people defending it

Duckman2008
Jan 6, 2010

TFW you see Flyers goaltending.
Grimey Drawer
Guys, you are forgetting that this is Stanley Cup winning goaltender Scott Darling.

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

Duckman2008 posted:

Guys, you are forgetting that this is Stanley Cup winning goaltender Scott Darling.

You can have 2-time winner MAF for just a bit more. That contract is stupid-bad. 8+million for a Ward/Career-Backup pairing is bad GMing

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Updates from the hockey analytics conference in Ottawa: four presentations done so far. Some cool stuff about using AI to analyze videos, an interesting proposed new stat to analyze goalies from Micah Blake McCurdy (that needs work), and another kick at the shot quality vs shot quantity can.

Random stuff:

Blocks per game are not a good predictor of injury probability or severity.
Scoring chances have a higher correlation to goals during short handed situations than other situations.
The best goalie stat in terms of repeatability over 25 game chunks is still all situation save percentage. The worst is ES SV%. Both are bad though.
Arizona loving sucks at defense. (chart below)
Defenders win possession contest 59% of the time in the defensive zone and attackers shoot the puck 46% of the time when they have possession.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DerrickOnSports/status/860842193619177474

E: an offensive screen more than doubles shooting percentage (5% with no screen vs 11% with screen) drat

Jordan7hm fucked around with this message at 15:08 on May 6, 2017

Duckman2008
Jan 6, 2010

TFW you see Flyers goaltending.
Grimey Drawer

Good Soldier Svejk posted:

You can have 2-time winner MAF for just a bit more. That contract is stupid-bad. 8+million for a Ward/Career-Backup pairing is bad GMing

Oh, I wasn't serious.

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

Duckman2008 posted:

Oh, I wasn't serious.

No worries - not an indictment of you unless you're Ron Francis. (I was just continuing your joke, didn't mean to come off harsh.)

(Nice av)

Captain Internet
Apr 20, 2005

:love: HOTLANTA :love:
IS WHERE YOUR HEART IS
I often wonder what happened to Stanley Cup winning goal tender "The Fortune Teller" Cristobal Huet. Not enough to google search it, but just enough to be like "man why do people think you can't ditch a goalie after he wins you a cup. Chicago did it twice."

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flakeloaf
Feb 26, 2003

Still better than android clock

Maybe he just stopped caring and venturad off somewhere.

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