Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
the bitcoin of weed
Nov 1, 2014

as long as he purges the blairites

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Fullhouse posted:

as long as he purges the blairites

murder suicide

Baloogan
Dec 5, 2004
Fun Shoe

logikv9 posted:

he won't stop until labour is five socialist dudes in a basement with 100% approval amongst their 20 voters

ukLF

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

logikv9 posted:

murder suicide

just execution

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

the corbyns and blairs really need to come to a power-sharing agreement

now that northern ireland is going to go over to the other side maybe the veteran negotiators can come help sort out the labour party

Baloogan
Dec 5, 2004
Fun Shoe
I guess labor is two parties funadmentally? momentum and labor

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Concerned Citizen posted:

well, to avoid having to reintroduce the drachma, greece would have to avoid bank collapse. they wouldn't be defaulting on germany/france, but rather would default on imf/ecb loans. greek banks are 100% reliant on the ecb for euros. they have no other way to get them because no one in the private sector is dumb enough to loan money to the greek banks. if they default on ecb loans, the ecb at that point will cut them off from ELA, which will mean the banks have no euros, which will trigger bank closures. the greeks will then have no choice but to re-introduce the drachma. this is essentially the issue - in order to stay in the EU, the greeks need the ecb to continue to provide their banks with euros despite the fact that they just defaulted on them. the ecb has said that a default on ecb loans would end the euro supply, so it would basically be a game of chicken.

you're right that it it's not that much money compared to the eurozone's central members as a whole - the issue is that greece wouldn't be alone. their failure would discredit the ecb and drive up borrowing costs for the entire periphery of the eu (contagion). now you've got several sovereign debt crises, and from there it's unpredictable but potentially catastrophic.


even a best case scenario (default with eu) would be catastrophic in short term followed by a return to growth. over the long term they'd be well above the baseline. this is what the eu should allow greece to do, but it seems they are unwilling to do that. so i think basically greece is in a no-win situation here. trying to maintain the (horrid) status quo may eventually yield debt relief, whereas a potential grexit would be really, really bad. and the grexit may end up basically being inevitable if the eu does not budge at some point.


yanis varoufakis made a blog post about why greece isn't argentina - obviously he was an enormous proponent of default with eu, and even he acknowledges that there are pretty significant differences. if greece defaulted within the eu, it could certainly recover. this is what greece would desperately try to do. but the ecb holds the cards. a default outside the eurozone may lead, quite simply, to a failed state.

I think the Germans sat down with Yanis and basically convinced him of all of what you've written here. Notably, economists, lenders, and the IMF said much of the same about Argentina in 2002. Obviously all of the starting points were different (no EU/euro, etc.) but I don't think a single American or EU economist endorsed the Argentinian default as it was happening--everyone declared the country doomed. They were absolutely convinced that a default would lead to hyperinflation and megadeath but shockingly, they were incorrect. In turns out the lenders have an enormous incentive to discourage a default.

In fact, managing the crisis in Argentina required drastic action by the government. Capital flight and runs on the banks were halted by a government-mandated freeze and extraordinary limitations on banking. see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corralito I haven't read anything that indicates Greece would not be able to put similar measures in place--just that it would violate their obligations to the EU, but again, they're already violating several obligations by defaulting in the first place. The Greek government would also basically have to restructure itself to make ends meet on top of restructuring the debt, which would also be painful, but it has been done before.

I also strongly disagree w/ Yanis that Greece has little potential for growth. The Greek GDP is almost down to half of what it used to be. That indicates to me that there is the potential for upside; I don't think that the situation has changed so much in a decade that even a return to normalcy is out of reach.

And finally, the whole point of the article is that Greece should default. "Does this mean that Greece ought to grin and bear the massive and misanthropic idiocy of the bailout-austerity package imposed upon it by the troika (EU-ECB-IMF)? Of course not. We should certainly default. But within the Eurozone." This is the argument that follows, and it is basically what I have been proposing: http://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2012/02/18/greek-default-does-not-equal-greek-exit/

The problem is that Germany browbeat Yanis and the inexperienced government into surrendering rather than pushing the issue by beginning a default. Now the debt is increasingly consolidated with sovereign entities that have leverage against Greece and little reason to accept the sort of buyout that Argentina was able to force. Greece still needs to force much more restructuring at some point, but I doubt anything will happen until the next economic crisis.

Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 01:37 on May 9, 2017

Nanomashoes
Aug 18, 2012

Jeremy Corbyn has made all these terrible decisions that doomed his party like uhh... having bad articles written about him.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
yanis thought that he could save greece with hats but clearly he had his work cut out for him

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

tony blair and corbyn matrix-style shooting passed each other

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Nanomashoes posted:

Jeremy Corbyn has made all these terrible decisions that doomed his party like uhh... having bad articles written about him.

He dropped the ball on Brexit, right?

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

Concerned Citizen posted:

also corbyn said he won't quit even if labour loses horrifically, so lol labour is doomed forever

DnD will cheer him on.

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy

Vox Nihili posted:

He dropped the ball on Brexit, right?
He campaigned with his party.

Meanwhile UKIP straight up lied about diverting money to the NHS and has been racially dogwhistling about migrants since forever.

Blaming corbyn for brexit is this stupid game where, somehow, the left is guilty of eveeything, even when they're not in power. David Cameron made a dumb pledge and gave the brexit guys their airtime, blame lays on his shoulders if its to lay on anyone.

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

rudatron posted:

He campaigned with his party.

Meanwhile UKIP straight up lied about diverting money to the NHS and has been racially dogwhistling about migrants since forever.

Blaming corbyn for brexit is this stupid game where, somehow, the left is guilty of eveeything, even when they're not in power. David Cameron made a dumb pledge and gave the brexit guys their airtime, blame lays on his shoulders if its to lay on anyone.

His sin was not resigning after the brexit referendum.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

rudatron posted:

He campaigned with his party.

Meanwhile UKIP straight up lied about diverting money to the NHS and has been racially dogwhistling about migrants since forever.

Blaming corbyn for brexit is this stupid game where, somehow, the left is guilty of eveeything, even when they're not in power. David Cameron made a dumb pledge and gave the brexit guys their airtime, blame lays on his shoulders if its to lay on anyone.

I thought it was like, rather than taking a firm stand against Brexit, Corbyn was more or less on the "well maybe this could be a good thing" wavelength.

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
He acknowledged the legitimate grounds for anti-EU sentiment, but I don't remember him ever saying it was a good thing.

hakimashou posted:

His sin was not resigning after the brexit referendum.
Why? Tories where in power, labor was in opposition, what obligation does the opposition leader have to resign, when a referendum spear headed by the cabinet fails? It was Cameron's baby, not Corbyn's. You may as well demand Corbyn resign because you stubbed your toe or some poo poo.

rudatron has issued a correction as of 02:19 on May 9, 2017

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

rudatron posted:

He campaigned with his party.

Meanwhile UKIP straight up lied about diverting money to the NHS and has been racially dogwhistling about migrants since forever.

Blaming corbyn for brexit is this stupid game where, somehow, the left is guilty of eveeything, even when they're not in power. David Cameron made a dumb pledge and gave the brexit guys their airtime, blame lays on his shoulders if its to lay on anyone.

he also enforced a three line whip in favor of brexit when it came up in the house of commons

Tacky-Ass Rococco
Sep 7, 2010

by R. Guyovich

Badger of Basra posted:

he also enforced a three line whip in favor of brexit when it came up in the house of commons

what was the logic there?

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

rudatron posted:

He acknowledged the legitimate grounds for anti-EU sentiment, but I don't remember him ever saying it was a good thing.

Why? Tories where in power, labor was in opposition, what obligation does the opposition leader have to resign, when a referendum spear headed by the cabinet fails? It was Cameron's baby, not Corbyn's. You may as well demand Corbyn resign because you stubbed your toe or some poo poo.

His position was untenable. He knew going into leadership that the brexit referendum was coming in a year. He was a leader of one of the two major political parties in the UK and he failed, just like cameron did, to lead his people away from the cliff.

All the really ugly poo poo with corbyn has happened post-brexit, and it's happened for a reason. If your position is untenable and you don't do the honorable thing and resign, this is what happens. He bears all the blame himself for desperately clinging on to power like he's done.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Goddamn that Jeremy Corbyn desperately clinging to a position he was elected to twice in a row.

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:

what was the logic there?

Many people believe he's always been a 'leftist brexiter' and deep down doesnt believe in the EU for some outlandish kooky-left 'reasons.'

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

Goddamn that Jeremy Corbyn desperately clinging to a position he was elected to twice in a row.

Yup, it's a stain that can never be washed off of him.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:

what was the logic there?

if they went against "the will of the people" it would make them look bad

i assume this means he will be whipping in favor of all tory proposals in the next parliament when labour loses

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel
At first when corbyn came on the scene I had no illusions and said picking him would make the labour brits insane fools, hadn't they learned anything from anything?

But then I gave him the benefit of the doubt and bought some of the hype.

After the brexit though, he showed his true colors and since then he's been nothing but self-destructive to any form of progress in britain. Either he is just a shitter, and that's why he refused to step down, or else he's some kind of idiot.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter. He chose to do the wrong thing and it's having big negative consequences for a lot of people, and it makes him a shitbag.

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme
corbyn did a very poor job during brexit. ultimately it's cameron's fault, but when 37% of labour voters side with the far right on brexit, that's kind of a corbyn issue. he should have resigned, but that didn't mean the coup was a good idea or particularly helpful.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Badger of Basra posted:

if they went against "the will of the people" it would make them look bad

i assume this means he will be whipping in favor of all tory proposals in the next parliament when labour loses

Democracies are the governments that ignore votes, right?

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

Democracies are the governments that ignore votes, right?

48% of voters wanted to stay, perhaps a party that represents those 48% might be more popular than one that says "well we're in favor of self-destructing in a more gentle way"

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
i'm not a big fan of a dude whose party is dying under their watch, op

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
although he can redeem himself with a simple change from labour to labor to drag in all the american-wannabe british voters. it's a silent majority

Tacky-Ass Rococco
Sep 7, 2010

by R. Guyovich

hakimashou posted:

Many people believe he's always been a 'leftist brexiter' and deep down doesnt believe in the EU for some outlandish kooky-left 'reasons.'

There are plenty of leftish reasons to appreciate Brexit. It'll almost certainly tank the UK financial sector, for one, which means that the City's disproportionate power in British government will hopefully decrease.

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

Democracies are the governments that ignore votes, right?

48% of the electorate voted against Brexit, it wouldn't have been unreasonable for their MPs to express symbolic opposition, especially when passage was assured.

It's just a bizarre, arbitrary use of the whip.

e: oh poo poo Corbyn isn't a democratic centralist, is he?

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Concerned Citizen posted:

48% of voters wanted to stay, perhaps a party that represents those 48% might be more popular than one that says "well we're in favor of self-destructing in a more gentle way"

35% of Labour voters also voted to Leave, so should the Labour party tell its own constituents that they won't be represented? Referendums aren't enforced proportionally. A party that acts against the interests of a democratic mandate isn't democratic. It also doesn't follow logically at all that a party which overturns the results of a referendum to represent a minority will somehow become more popular.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

Democracies are the governments that ignore votes, right?

so do you agree with the second part or

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Badger of Basra posted:

so do you agree with the second part or

No, because policy proposals and referendums are completely different things and it's stupid to pretend they're the same.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
well i think corbyn is actually good

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

BrutalistMcDonalds posted:

well i think corbyn is actually good

tory spotted

Baloogan
Dec 5, 2004
Fun Shoe

logikv9 posted:

i'm not a big fan of a dude whose party is dying under their watch, op

lol watch it with the attacks on obama

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Baloogan posted:

lol watch it with the attacks on obama

already compared Obama to corbyn itt :laffo:

Hodgepodge
Jan 29, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 232 days!

hakimashou posted:

His position was untenable. He knew going into leadership that the brexit referendum was coming in a year. He was a leader of one of the two major political parties in the UK and he failed, just like cameron did, to lead his people away from the cliff.

All the really ugly poo poo with corbyn has happened post-brexit, and it's happened for a reason. If your position is untenable and you don't do the honorable thing and resign, this is what happens. He bears all the blame himself for desperately clinging on to power like he's done.

You keep insisting that Corbyn resigning after Brexit would be the "honorable thing," which I really don't see.

Brexit was Cameron's mess, not his.

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

Hodgepodge posted:

You keep insisting that Corbyn resigning after Brexit would be the "honorable thing," which I really don't see.

Brexit was Cameron's mess, not his.

He shouldn't have stood for the leadership if he wasn't prepared to take responsibility for what happened.

It's why he's no leader at all, despite what it might say on the door to his office or whether or not he can order three-line whips.

Brexit became the mess of every single british person once the referendum results came in. Cameron and Corbyn were the political leaders of britain and they failed in the most important task in a generation.

hakimashou has issued a correction as of 04:44 on May 9, 2017

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Hodgepodge
Jan 29, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 232 days!

hakimashou posted:

He shouldn't have stood for the leadership if he wasn't prepared to take responsibility for what happened.

It's why he's no leader at all.

Brexit became the mess of every single british person once the referendum results came in. Cameron and Corbyn were the political leaders of britain and they failed in the most important task in a generation.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but he's leader of the Labour Party, which is in opposition, not the leader of the government or the effort to oppose Brexit?

quote:

Brexit became the mess of every single british person once the referendum results came in. Cameron and Corbyn were the political leaders of britain and they failed in the most important task in a generation.

As we here in the degenerate Canadian colonies understand it, the opposition is not really responsible for the government's messes.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply