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https://soundcloud.com/watsoninstitute/e17-blyth Mark Blyth talking about the French election.
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May 19, 2017 12:04
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lollontee posted:https://soundcloud.com/watsoninstitute/e17-blyth First reaction: 3 in 10 French people voted for LePen because of the Eurozone but Trump is the president of the US because of?
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May 19, 2017 12:13
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GaussianCopula posted:First reaction: 3 in 10 French people voted for LePen because of the Eurozone but Trump is the president of the US because of? TPP/TTIP
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May 19, 2017 12:48
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MiddleOne posted:Labour is, in spite of Corbyn, gaining in the UK so who knows. Isn't the tory share expected to grow even more than Labour though?
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May 19, 2017 13:07
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icantfindaname posted:TPP/TTIP So the subjugation of continental Europe by Germany, as described by Mr. Blyth, through the Eurozone has a lesser effect on voter than non-existing free-trade agreements?
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May 19, 2017 13:07
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GaussianCopula posted:So the subjugation of continental Europe by Germany, as described by Mr. Blyth, through the Eurozone has a lesser effect on voter than non-existing free-trade agreements? What? No.
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May 19, 2017 13:22
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fishmech posted:Isn't the tory share expected to grow even more than Labour though? Yes, but generally because the Tory essentially ate UKIP. I do think the center-left/left is actually very weak globally at the moment especially compared to the growth of right-populism.
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May 19, 2017 13:28
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More people in the US think Donald Trump is doing a good job TODAY than voted for LePen and the biggest populist victory in the Europe was in the UK, one of the few EU member states that had an official opt-out of the Euro - I really don't think the Eurozone is at fault for the rise of populism and it's just a cheap argument to push a certain agenda. Source for the Trump data https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/865580924221755392
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May 19, 2017 15:59
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40% of the US approving of Trump, even after seeing the disaster that the last 120 days have been, is mind boggling. It makes you realize no matter the problems we have on this side of the pond the American electorate is just so much more right-wing/insane on average. In a Le Pen vs Trump election Le Pen would have been the (comparatively) intelligent, restrained, qualified, and way to the left economically/socially candidate.
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May 19, 2017 16:45
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Blut posted:40% of the US approving of Trump, even after seeing the disaster that the last 120 days have been, is mind boggling. The american perception of what is left/right is, remains, and will apparently always be a joke.
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May 19, 2017 16:58
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Blut posted:40% of the US approving of Trump, even after seeing the disaster that the last 120 days have been, is mind boggling. The thing is, in my view, America is actually starting to develop a capable alternative under the banner of Sanders and his movement to primary centrist Dems and take over the party. Nothing like that is even close to happening in Europe, in no little degree, because the lack of a european politics proper. So tbh I'd give America a better chance at not succumbing to neo-fascism than europe because only a strong populist left alternative can stem the current trend.
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May 19, 2017 17:26
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GaussianCopula posted:More people in the US think Donald Trump is doing a good job TODAY than voted for LePen and the biggest populist victory in the Europe was in the UK, one of the few EU member states that had an official opt-out of the Euro - I really don't think the Eurozone is at fault for the rise of populism and it's just a cheap argument to push a certain agenda. It's cool that you're capable of being this blind at the Spanish governmental deadlock, the rise of Podemos, Syriza, Five star movemen, that Austria almost elected an anti-immigrant president, Hungary proto-fascism, right-wing populism in Poland, etc. I would almost be amazed at your non-chalantness ideological blindess if it wasn't clear that these types of dumb comparisons like your post above signal a desperate attempt to ignore the fire in the kitchen. But Hey, Merkel might win again, that means everything's alright right?
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May 19, 2017 17:30
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Fados posted:The thing is, in my view, America is actually starting to develop a capable alternative under the banner of Sanders and his movement to primary centrist Dems and take over the party. Sanders isn't taking over jack poo poo, for as much as his supporters hype themselves up. Also the "progressives" lining up with him are often people like Tulsi Gabbard or Ro Khanna who have serious issues with leftist policies - Tulsi's rabidly anti-Muslim and buddy-buddy with the ruling conservative party in India, Ro Khanna has a lot of techlord "calls themselves leftist but is heavily in with Corporate America" as you'd expect from being elected out of Silicon Valley.
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May 19, 2017 17:41
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GaussianCopula posted:More people in the US think Donald Trump is doing a good job TODAY than voted for LePen and the biggest populist victory in the Europe was in the UK, one of the few EU member states that had an official opt-out of the Euro - I really don't think the Eurozone is at fault for the rise of populism and it's just a cheap argument to push a certain agenda. That said, I do agree with you in a sense. The Eurozone isn't at fault as such, its the rules which govern it that cause problems - though they're not solely responsible either, they're both symptoms of greater problems in politics.
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May 19, 2017 17:48
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fishmech posted:Also the "progressives" lining up with him are often people like Tulsi Gabbard or Ro Khanna who have serious issues with leftist policies - Tulsi's rabidly anti-Muslim and buddy-buddy with the ruling conservative party in India, Ro Khanna has a lot of techlord "calls themselves leftist but is heavily in with Corporate America" as you'd expect from being elected out of Silicon Valley. This strikes me as a little misleading, given the other Democrats who are shifting their messaging in Bernie's direction.
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May 19, 2017 17:53
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Hot take incoming: Bernie's economic platform is more to the right than Merkel's. Merkel is Germany's Bernie.
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May 19, 2017 17:56
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Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:Hot take incoming:
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May 19, 2017 17:57
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Majorian posted:This strikes me as a little misleading, given the other Democrats who are shifting their messaging in Bernie's direction. You mean people who were shifting their messaging in Hillary's direction, which was almost exactly the same thing? Bernie isn't leading poo poo, and likely never will.
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May 19, 2017 17:58
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Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:Hot take incoming: Boy, if there's more damning commentary on American politics, I haven't seen it. GaussianCopula posted:More people in the US think Donald Trump is doing a good job TODAY than voted for LePen I think part of that can be attributed to the insane level of tribalism that exists in U.S. politics today; I know it's at a high point in a lot of places, but the U.S. is really taking it to a new level of, "MY TEAM, right or wrong!"
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May 19, 2017 18:01
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GaussianCopula posted:So the subjugation of continental Europe by Germany, as described by Mr. Blyth, through the Eurozone has a lesser effect on voter than non-existing free-trade agreements? In the case of Trump, NAFTA is a very existing free-trade agreement, and he bashed it every chance he had.
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May 19, 2017 18:06
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My point is that you can't attribute the rise of populism, which is evident in the whole west, to specific Eurozone policies, which are mostly ignored for political reasons anyway.
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May 19, 2017 18:08
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GaussianCopula posted:My point is that you can't attribute the rise of populism, which is evident in the whole west, to specific Eurozone policies, which are mostly ignored for political reasons anyway. Sure you can, why wouldn't decreased social spending for no good or discernible reason lead to populism to counterbalance it? If people are getting less of their social wage back than they used to, they will notice and react accordingly.
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May 19, 2017 18:09
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GaussianCopula posted:My point is that you can't attribute the rise of populism, which is evident in the whole west, to specific Eurozone policies, which are mostly ignored for political reasons anyway. Except, the type of Eurozone policies europeans are against could be the same to the ones in NAFTA that Americans are against. In which case, you could attribute them to the rise of populism.
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May 19, 2017 18:13
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Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:Hot take incoming:
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May 19, 2017 18:16
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rgocs posted:Except, the type of Eurozone policies europeans are against could be the same to the ones in NAFTA that Americans are against. In which case, you could attribute them to the rise of populism. NAFTA is more comparable to the EU as a whole, if we are honest, the whole idea of global trade/globalization, which distributes wealth more equally between the global population. Fiction posted:Sure you can, why wouldn't decreased social spending for no good or discernible reason lead to populism to counterbalance it? If people are getting less of their social wage back than they used to, they will notice and react accordingly. Because the increase in social spending, financed by cheap, Euro denominated debt, were not sustainable in the first place. Now you can have the populists tell everyone they can walk over water, but as Greece has demonstrated, they can't.
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May 19, 2017 18:17
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GaussianCopula posted:NAFTA is more comparable to the EU as a whole, if we are honest, the whole idea of global trade/globalization, which distributes wealth more equally between the global population. I might be reading you wrong. But if you are suggesting that NAFTA distributes wealth more equally between American, Canadian and Mexican populations, I have a bridge to sell you.
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May 19, 2017 18:24
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Hambilderberglar posted:I really need this to be true for a good laugh. What is it based on? I read it as a commentary on the fact that Germany's social safety net is still relatively robust. There's pretty much nothing that even an economic justice warrior like Sanders could do as president, that could put the U.S. on par with even a reduced European welfare state. e: \/\/\/  \/\/\/
Majorian fucked around with this message at 18:30 on May 19, 2017 |
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May 19, 2017 18:25
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A Buttery Pastry posted:As for the US, Trump is still significantly less popular than Bush II was at this point in his presidency, he just managed to game the American system by not being a willfully blind technocrat telling people in key states that everything was great while their communities were dying to an opioid epidemic. The sad irony here is that this is completely wrong, because the technocratic candidate actually did have a broad and well-fleshed out plan to actually do something about the epidemic, and even addressed this very early in her campaign, but good luck gaining any votes with technocratic policy solutions; you need an overarching and inspiring message. Plus you need media who will actually report what you want to do rather than just integrally broadcast the campaign speeches of an insane clown even though they're the best show in town.
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May 19, 2017 18:27
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Pluskut Tukker posted:The sad irony here is that this is completely wrong, because the technocratic candidate actually did have a broad and well-fleshed out plan to actually do something about the epidemic, and even addressed this very early in her campaign, but good luck gaining any votes with technocratic policy solutions; you need an overarching and inspiring message. Plus you need media who will actually report what you want to do rather than just integrally broadcast the campaign speeches of an insane clown even though they're the best show in town.
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May 19, 2017 19:18
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Hambilderberglar posted:I really need this to be true for a good laugh. What is it based on? universal healthcare, free nationalized universities, paid maternity leave/vacation/sick days, public infrastructure spending, etc. are non-partisan mainstream policies around here and what we already have goes beyond what Bernie wanted to implement in the US. the point is that projecting these batshit insane Amerian politics to other countries doesn't really work. there is no European Bernie, because, he, as a phenomenon, can only exist in a niche created by all the US insanity. in any other country he would just be a normal dude with normal opinions. like, there is literally no logical reason why universal healthcare or free universities need to be a partisan issue, both of these things are objectively a good idea and lucrative financial investment.
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May 19, 2017 19:31
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Well, the communist candidates bowed out of our constituency here in Vincennes so all we have to do now is defeat the PS/EELV incumbent, and the LR/UDI, LREM, and FN challengers and we're set
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May 19, 2017 19:35
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Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:universal healthcare, free nationalized universities, paid maternity leave/vacation/sick days, public infrastructure spending, etc. are non-partisan mainstream policies around here and what we already have goes beyond what Bernie wanted to implement in the US.
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May 19, 2017 19:42
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rgocs posted:In the case of Trump, NAFTA is a very existing free-trade agreement, and he bashed it every chance he had. And then someone in his administration told him removing it would be bad and he gave up on doing anything about it. 
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May 19, 2017 20:36
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GaussianCopula posted:Because the increase in social spending, financed by cheap, Euro denominated debt, were not sustainable in the first place. Now you can have the populists tell everyone they can walk over water, but as Greece has demonstrated, they can't. If the system cannot offer the people what they see as their fair share, those in power are either going to get voted out, or overthrown.
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May 19, 2017 21:43
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lollontee posted:If the system cannot offer the people what they see as their fair share, those in power are either going to get voted out, or overthrown. what if their perception of what is "their fair share" is economically unsustainable? How exactly are those people supposed to be governed.
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May 19, 2017 21:51
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GaussianCopula posted:what if their perception of what is "their fair share" is economically unsustainable? How exactly are those people supposed to be governed. "economically unsustainable"...
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May 19, 2017 22:07
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A Buttery Pastry posted:This is kind of like the whole thing with the Civil War in the US. The uneducated say it was because of slavery, people who know a bit more say it was a complicated issue, while the people who dig a little deeper say "Nah, it was because of slavery". With Clinton it's "I didn't trust her, she's part of the corrupt establishment" going through "Actually, she had a lot plans that would have helped a lot of people!" to "Nah, people didn't trust her and establishment democrats to fight for them because they've not done so for decades." Stated policy rightfully doesn't matter if people don't trust you to fight for it. Uneducated people say it was about states' rights. People with half a brain understand it was about one right in particular
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May 19, 2017 22:12
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GaussianCopula posted:what if their perception of what is "their fair share" is economically unsustainable? How exactly are those people supposed to be governed. Fear of the guillotine will make them find ways to make "economically unsustainable" social and economic justice suddenly sustainable.
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May 19, 2017 22:25
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GaussianCopula posted:what if their perception of what is "their fair share" is economically unsustainable? How exactly are those people supposed to be governed. You're pretty naive if you have to ask that question. Fact is, you don't get to tell the governed what they're allowed demand. If the economic system we live under cannot sustain a satisfiable standard of living, the people will abandon it. Basically the only thing keeping the system going is the (temporary) lack of anyone with the guts to say that they've got an alternative. And it's a state that's not going to last. lollontee fucked around with this message at 23:03 on May 19, 2017 |
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May 19, 2017 22:33
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Senor Dog posted:Uneducated people say it was about states' rights.
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May 19, 2017 22:38
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