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jabby
Oct 27, 2010


Saying Thornberry 'seemed to suggest' something rather than quoting her implies she said no such thing.

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LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

jabby posted:

Saying Thornberry 'seemed to suggest' something rather than quoting her implies she said no such thing.

http://www.lbc.co.uk/politics/elections/general-election-2017/lbcs-election-call/emily-thornberry-does-not-rule-out-trident/
When asked if Trident would definitely continue as Labour party policy even after such review had taken place, Emily Thornberry replied: “No, of course not, if you’re going to have a review, you have to have a review.”

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

crispix posted:

Goons, I will be in the Question Time audience this coming Thursday. :spiderguy:

I hope sincerely that you spend the entire time doing football chants at the tories.

However many of them there are on stage.

kingturnip
Apr 18, 2008

LemonDrizzle posted:

http://www.lbc.co.uk/politics/elections/general-election-2017/lbcs-election-call/emily-thornberry-does-not-rule-out-trident/
When asked if Trident would definitely continue as Labour party policy even after such review had taken place, Emily Thornberry replied: “No, of course not, if you’re going to have a review, you have to have a review.”

I'm not sure what your point is, but I agree with Thornberry.
What's the point of having a review if you decide to ignore it if you don't like the outcome?

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Our Windows XP submarines must patrol the oceans forever.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

kingturnip posted:

I'm not sure what your point is, but I agree with Thornberry.
What's the point of having a review if you decide to ignore it if you don't like the outcome?

They maybe should have all agreed that Trident may not be renewed before putting in the manifesto that it would be?

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

kingturnip posted:

I'm not sure what your point is
My point is that she did indeed explicitly say that Trident could be scrapped under a Corbyn-led government, exactly as the newsnight interviewer claimed she did.

communism bitch
Apr 24, 2009

Irony Be My Shield posted:

Our Windows XP submarines must patrol the oceans forever.

Tbf i doubt they're running on btinternet with mcafee antivirus and opening fw: fw: fw: cute-dog-pic.exe attachments on the pcs that control the nukes.

Wait... of course they are

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

LemonDrizzle posted:

My point is that she did indeed explicitly say that Trident could be scrapped under a Corbyn-led government, exactly as the newsnight interviewer claimed she did.

Yeah they urgently need a bit of clarity on this. Either Griffiths is going beyond what had been agreed or Thornberry is unaware of what's been agreed.

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

Pissflaps posted:

Make that 95%.

It'd be helpful if you actually provided any reasoning whatsoever to make that conclusion.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Lord of the Llamas posted:

It'd be helpful if you actually provided any reasoning whatsoever to make that conclusion.

Reasoning other than overwhelming Tory dominance in the polls, the Labour leadership's unpopularity and UKIP not standing in hundreds of seats? I think expecting at least 35 Labour seats to go Tory is utterly reasonable

MrL_JaKiri
Sep 23, 2003

A bracing glass of carrot juice!
I feel like using "Trident" as shorthand for "any nuclear deterrent" isn't helping

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

Pissflaps posted:

Reasoning other than overwhelming Tory dominance in the polls, the Labour leadership's unpopularity and UKIP not standing in hundreds of seats? I think expecting at least 35 Labour seats to go Tory is utterly reasonable

Yes, we can put numbers on all of those things. How about you stop waving your loving hand about. I've already stated that the recent polling evidence would be between 0.4-0.6 on this graph but you're claiming 95% towards the extreme Labour losses?

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Intrinsic Field Marshal
Sep 6, 2014

by SA Support Robot
wow

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer
hot loving take there

Intrinsic Field Marshal
Sep 6, 2014

by SA Support Robot
What did she mean by this?

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Lord of the Llamas posted:

Yes, we can put numbers on all of those things. How about you stop waving your loving hand about. I've already stated that the recent polling evidence would be between 0.4-0.6 on this graph but you're claiming 95% towards the extreme Labour losses?



These graphs are too complicated for me. I think it's extremely likely Labour will lose at least 35 seats. You disagree. We'll know for sure in just three weeks.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer

Pissflaps posted:

These graphs are too complicated for me.

You're such a bollocks.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

MrL_JaKiri posted:

I feel like using "Trident" as shorthand for "any nuclear deterrent" isn't helping

To be honest that's a pretty good get-out clause right there.

"When I said Trident would be included in the review, I only meant in the sense that it could be upgraded or replaced with a better nuclear deterrent. Of course Labour is committed to maintaining a continuous at-sea nuclear deterrent."

They probably won't do that, but it would be pretty good spin.

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

Pissflaps posted:

These graphs are too complicated for me. I think it's extremely likely Labour will lose at least 35 seats. You disagree. We'll know for sure in just three weeks.

The idea that the more Con gains than Lab from UKIP they win more seats is too complicated?

Lord of the Llamas fucked around with this message at 01:09 on May 20, 2017

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Lord of the Llamas posted:

The idea that the more Con gains from Lab from UKIP they win more seats is too complicated?

I'm struggling to parse this sentence never mind the graphs.

Namtab
Feb 22, 2010

Regarde Aduck posted:

You're such a bollocks.

And yet people keep trying.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

In more fun news, it looks like the Telegraph has become the first right-wing rag to snap after the revelation that Scottish pensioners get to keep their fuel allowances. Even sidelining their hot take on Corbyn/IRA to have a go at May.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/865671981307441152

Namtab
Feb 22, 2010

Lord of the Llamas posted:

The idea that the more Con gains than Lab from UKIP they win more seats is too complicated?

Although to be fair, the wording here is painful. I know that the graph is showing that the Tories are gaining votes from the collapse of skip, which means they are more likely to win seats that had a right wing vote split in previous elections.

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

Pissflaps posted:

I'm struggling to parse this sentence never mind the graphs.

My bad maybe, I did say "from Lab" not "than Lab" so I'm ever so sorry if you couldn't figure out the meaning.

But the lower graph is very simple; it shows the number of seats Labour would win given that X net proportion of the UKIP vote went Tory.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Lord of the Llamas posted:

My bad maybe, I did say "from Lab" not "than Lab" so I'm ever so sorry if you couldn't figure out the meaning.

But the lower graph is very simple; it shows the number of seats Labour would win given that X net proportion of the UKIP vote went Tory.

What does the graph tell us about Labour voters moving to the Tories in marginals, or Labour voters not turning out on the day?

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

Pissflaps posted:

What does the graph tell us about Labour voters moving to the Tories in marginals, or Labour voters not turning out on the day?

Nothing. But the polling evidence is that the UKIP collapse is the only significant change in the landscape and the electorate is now divided down Brexit lines.

I'll be happy to apply more analysis to the polling data for any hypothesis you have.

Kokoro Wish
Jul 23, 2007

Post? What post? Oh wow.
I had nothing to do with THAT.
Pissflaps fails to understand easily understandable thing. Shocker.

Since then Labour managed to put out their policy outlines in a format understandable by all, including the deaf:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efQo4LbXO6c

JFairfax
Oct 23, 2008

by FactsAreUseless

Kokoro Wish posted:

Pissflaps fails to understand easily understandable thing. Shocker.

Since then Labour managed to put out their policy outlines in a format understandable by all, including the deaf:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efQo4LbXO6c

pissflaps needs the translation for the dumb

TinTower
Apr 21, 2010

You don't have to 8e a good person to 8e a hero.

kingturnip posted:

I'm not sure what your point is, but I agree with Thornberry.
What's the point of having a review if you decide to ignore it if you don't like the outcome?

*Roy Jenkins laughs in a proportionally representative manner*

Lightning Lord
Feb 21, 2013

$200 a day, plus expenses

So what are you guys planning on doing when you're no longer allowed to discuss politics online?

Kegluneq
Feb 18, 2011

Mr President, the physical reality of Prime Minister Corbyn is beyond your range of apprehension. If you'll just put on these PINKOVISION glasses...

Lightning Lord posted:

So what are you guys planning on doing when you're no longer allowed to discuss politics online?

I'm going to live like a dangerous cyber-haxx0r and continue doing it anyway :unsmigghh:

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
Keep in mind the bleeding-edge wisdom on policing online discourse:

quote:

... the purpose of these fabricated posts is not to argue with other social-media users, but to distract them. To perform the study, King and his two coauthors—Jennifer Pan, Ph.D. ’15, and Margaret Roberts, Ph.D. ’14—analyzed a trove of leaked emails sent between local government offices and the propaganda department in one county in southeastern China. “A big giant mess of a dataset,” King recalls, from which the researchers harvested nearly 44,000 fabricated social-media posts from 2013 and 2014. Across all of China, they calculated, that suggests about 450 million posts per year. In those King and his team read, 50-cent party members “are not arguing with anybody at all,” he says. They don’t jump into fights when other users complain about the regime’s repressions or corruption among local officials.

Instead, they change the subject. “They’ll say, ‘I woke up this morning and thought about how important our martyrs were to the history of China,’” King says. “Or, ‘What a beautiful day it is today.’ Lots and lots of these—and not just randomly. They’ll post them in big bursts when they need them.” King’s team found large batches of fake posts turning up around the same time as crises, holidays, and other events that might stir up public action: the Shanshan riots in June 2013, the Urumqi Railway explosion in April 2014, Martyr’s Day, Tomb Sweeping Day, Communist Party meetings to discuss national policies. “It’s almost like when you’re having an all-out fight about something with your spouse or your kids,” King points out, “and you want to end the argument, and so you say, ‘Hey, why don’t we go get ice cream?’”

This finding—that 50-cent party members are less interested in controversy than in cheerleading—fits with King’s previous research on China’s social-media control (see http://harvardmag.com/china-censors-13), in which he found that the government would ignore comments disparaging the regime or local leaders, while posts about organizing protests, or even pro-government rallies, were invariably censored. “They don’t care what you say or what you think,” King says. “They only care what you can do. They don’t want people in the streets.”

Blunt hammers are ineffective and even counterproductive. In that sense the UK is "safe" from such approaches, which require a degree of conscious manipulation that cannot be sustained in a liberally-democratic regulatory bureaucracy. But don't worry, the Mail and the Sun will be quite happy to provide instead.

Mugsbaloney
Jul 11, 2012

We prefer your extinction to the loss of our job

hey chaps lets do some direct acti- in runs pissflaps screaming "WHAT A LOVELY DAY"

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Intrinsic Field Marshal
Sep 6, 2014

by SA Support Robot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lz9VlsOeXc8

God bless Alexander Jahans

Prince John
Jun 20, 2006

Oh, poppycock! Female bandits?

jabby posted:

Yeah they urgently need a bit of clarity on this. Either Griffiths is going beyond what had been agreed or Thornberry is unaware of what's been agreed.

My gut feeling is that there is still genuine disagreement on Trident and they're both speaking truthfully. All sides have agreed that it's necessary to keep Trident renewal as Labour policy at the moment, and to keep it in the manifesto, for the sake of a united front. All the CND lot genuinely see the defence review as a chance to change that stance in the future (which is probably why they agreed to temporarily support it now).

MrL_JaKiri
Sep 23, 2003

A bracing glass of carrot juice!

Mugsbaloney posted:

hey chaps lets do some direct acti- in runs pissflaps screaming "WHAT A LOVELY DAY"

Pissflaps is a war boy and I claim my five pounds

MrL_JaKiri
Sep 23, 2003

A bracing glass of carrot juice!
He's one of the troops here

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awesome-express
Dec 30, 2008

Here's a hot take on Trident: as long as there are malicious actors who possess nukes then there needs to be a deterrent to prevent said actors from acting on their malicious goals.

Ideally we wouldn't need nukes but we live in world where people would unironically vote for Tory Jesus.

Thank you ladies and gentlemen :tipshat:

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