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STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Assuming he can and they don't die at F6 like Sarah's idol, yeah, probably.

This could be the "Craziest Tribal Ever" we've been waiting for with 6 players and 5 idols in play. Musical Chairs Tribal!

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ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

mancalamania posted:

Yeah, all of Michaela's exit interviews are great, but her insistence that the numbers just didn't really add up in Cirie's plan isn't necessarily true. The following scenario is consistent with everything in the episode and with what Michaela said and the numbers still make sense: Tai/Brad/Troyzan were all voting Sarah thinking Cirie and/or Aubry were ALSO voting Sarah, Sarah was voting Aubry, and Cirie/Michaela/Aubry were voting Tai. That's 3-3-1 vote, and Sarah is refusing to budge, and if Tai/Brad/Troyzan find out about this they will potentially just join Sarah and vote out Aubry 4-3 (or force a rock draw since they don't have much to lose). If that's all the case (or even if Cirie THOUGHT it was the case), the only way to save both Sarah and Aubry is to steal a vote to get Tai out with 4 total votes, and if Cirie steals anyone besides Sarah's vote, Tai will know Cirie is stealing a vote against Sarah and will know something is up and play an idol.

The 'safe' move (assuming the advantage WAS transferable) would be to have the block shift their votes to Troyzan, and have Cirie's steal Tai's vote to take out Troyzan - nobody is expecting him to have an idol, and Troyzan probably didn't feel threatened enough to play it, since he's figuring Tai would be the first target in the line of fire.

I guess the big question now is who's the first priority vote next. It's a 3-3 tie between the two alliances, but if Cirie/Sarah can't mend their fences then they're easy pickings for the boys. It would then be in the guys' best interest to take out Aubry, since she's got good immunity chances. Either way it doesn't look good for the girls; with three idols they're pretty safe. The girls' best hope is that the guys pile their votes onto Sarah and have it bounce off her legacy advantage.

But I would be very surprised if Cirie or Aubry don't go home first. Too many immunities otherwise for that not to happen.

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova

Max posted:

So best move for Tai is play his two idols back to back at this point, yeah?

That'd be his best move to advance as far as possible, but I think this past episode showed that he is thinking a little more critically about his endgame.

It seems unlikely that someone would be able to turn an F6/5/4 move into a compelling case in front of the jury, but he knows he has to do poo poo to convince people to vote for him, so I can see him playing them in a less conventional way.

Superanos
Nov 13, 2009

I'm hoping for the worst bullshit to happen in the final 6 TC as we have 5 immunities in play.

- Tai plays an idol because he has no reason not to
- Troyzan plays his idol in panic after seeing Tai play his
- Sarah has the legacy advantage
- Someone else from the remaining three won the immunity challenge

This means Tai alone can decide who goes home from the remaining two by using the other idol. The production really needs to calm down with the constant dumb twists.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

Hey Hey Let's Go! 喧嘩する
大切な物を protect my balls


It's not some dumb twist that will cause the chaos. It's that they put 3 idols in to the game and nobody has played them...

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
GAME CHANGERS

Arcanen
Dec 19, 2005

Superanos posted:

The production really needs to calm down with the constant dumb twists.

Speaking of productions calming down with dumb twists, Big Brother Canada season 5 (which just finished this week) is worth watching precisely because they did so (with one exception that's revealed right at the beginning of the season). They've always had quite good casting, but were hampered by the constant twists.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

SLICK GOKU BABY posted:

It's not some dumb twist that will cause the chaos. It's that they put 3 idols in to the game and nobody has played them...

And the legacy advantage. And the vote steal.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Propaganda Machine posted:

And the legacy advantage. And the vote steal.

Don't forget Debbie's Triple Choice! Plus if we're including twists, there was that combined Tribal Council.

SLICK GOKU BABY posted:

It's not some dumb twist that will cause the chaos. It's that they put 3 idols in to the game and nobody has played them...

Well, Tai played an idol on Sierra way back during pre-merge.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

There HAVE been a lot of unnecessary powers and twists this season but the current situation is only slightly about them. Slick's right. Mostly this is about the regular idols and them just not getting played. The Legacy one makes it a little more extreme but we wouldn't be having this conversation if the idols had ended up in different hands.

Dugong
Mar 18, 2013

I don't know what to do,
I'm going to lose my mind

Unless the edit is seriously warping Tai's position, it's completely insane that he has held two idols for so long.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I mostly chalk it up to Tai being a well liked guy and being clearly on the bottom of his alliance. He had Brad, Sierra, Debbie, and maybe even Troyzan shielding him since the merge and he seems to have connections with Michaela, Cirie, and Sarah at least.

Tai's probably a better social player than we realize because he's just such a paranoid mess of a strategic player. But if you can ignore those panicked confessionals he's a guy who managed to use an idol for someone else to win a ton of trust from an alliance, hide behind that alliance through the whole merge while collecting 2 more idols no one knows about, and create ties to the other side of the tribe to generally be more plugged in.

Or alternatively he's a man on an island because a few weeks back all his alliance mates vote for him so now everyone sees him as just a powerless floater.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

STAC Goat posted:

There HAVE been a lot of unnecessary powers and twists this season but the current situation is only slightly about them. Slick's right. Mostly this is about the regular idols and them just not getting played. The Legacy one makes it a little more extreme but we wouldn't be having this conversation if the idols had ended up in different hands.

I agree that this doesn't really have to do with the extra advantages, but disagree that people wouldn't be having this conversation if the idols were in different hands. Ever since they started doing 3 tribes more frequently, people online have been pointing out the possible problem of having 3 idols all played at the Final 5 (plus an immunity necklace) causing the same issue. Rather than making the obvious fix of moving the last Tribal that idols can be used from Final 5 to Final 6, production instead doubled down on this annoying scenario by adding a fourth idol that will automatically be played at 6, meaning now both 5 and 6 have the possibility of triggering an auto-eliminate.

Here's an easy fix for the future: last Tribal idols can be played is Final 6, EXCEPT Legacy which is only playable at 5. Also serves to make Legacy Advantage more powerful and interesting.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Max posted:

So best move for Tai is play his two idols back to back at this point, yeah?
It might even be smart for him to go so far as saying Hey everyone, I have two idols, I'll be seeing you at the F4, who wants to be my ally?

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, I think the best play from Tai's perspective at this point would probably be to make it known he's locked into F4 and get working on what to do at that stage if he can't just win immunity. Its time for him to be building his end game.

I doubt we'll get the 5 idols and 1 option scenario unless the idols all die at F6. But Sarah and Tai should be locks to play their idols and Troyzan will definitely have to play his at that stage unless he's got balls of steel. But its basically a 50/50 chance that we'll "only" get 3 when one of them wins the Immunity necklace.

If the Survivor producers are smart they made the F6 Immunity Competition one of those "you can choose to sit it out" ones to tempt Sarah, Tai, and Troy from not playing and assuring there's four idols getting played for maximum chaos. Although it could be interesting to see what Tai or Sarah do if they win and realize they have an idol to spare.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
With us seeing Tai give brad an idol, those three will be protected for sure. An idol moves on to final 5 if one of them wins immunity unless they think it's worth to protect Aubry, Sarah, or Cirie for whatever reason.

blue squares
Sep 28, 2007

Zesty posted:

Blatant episode preview spoilers?


Thanks

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
Oh no. I predicted something from the "Next time on survivor" preview? gently caress. We know how accurate those are.

Seriously, you shouldn't be in this thread if you think the preview they play before the credits is a spoiler.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I don't talk about those previews because I know some people consider them spoilers. So I leave them out of my guesses out of respect.

But also, they're not necessarily great indicators. Last week's preview had Michaela telling Brad to go fishing, him getting mad, and then the shot of him throwing sand like he was angry (but really he was celebrating winning immunity) and then Cirie and Tai talking about doing the "unimaginable." So I thought Michaela might have treated Brad badly enough to turn the tribe against her and Cirie was contemplating voting her out. Turns out it was nothing like that and none of those scenes had anything to do with each other.

So I could make guesses on the preview but like, that could have been a giant red herring so I'm not going to bother or possibly spoil people if it is accurate.

phosdex
Dec 16, 2005

Previews are like those scenes in a movie trailer that aren't even in the actual movie.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I imagine the choice of whether or not to use an idol is going to who spooks who. Tai/Troy might think they're safe at first, but Sarah playing her Legacy may spook them enough to throw their idols in.

JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes
theme and title of S35 are out. think of the worst possible theme you can think of

it's worse hahahaha what the christ http://insidesurvivor.com/survivor-season-35-theme-and-title-revealed-27487

STING 64
Oct 20, 2006

pray that it has a location subtitle, i really dont wanna watch survivor triple h

Parity warning
Nov 1, 2009



3rd Place, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

JesusSinfulHands posted:

theme and title of S35 are out. think of the worst possible theme you can think of

it's worse hahahaha what the christ http://insidesurvivor.com/survivor-season-35-theme-and-title-revealed-27487

eh I don't think it's that bad and seems likely to give us some types of castaways that aren't as common. The worst thing about the forced themes tends to be production shoehorning them in whenever possible and that happens regardless of what the theme is

also there is no way it's a worse theme than haves vs have-nots and oh yeah RACE WAR

also also three tribes from the start which I always like

Parity warning fucked around with this message at 05:16 on May 21, 2017

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

Parity warning posted:

also also three tribes from the start which I always like

I think we're always going to see that if they want to schedule a season for 18 contestants. They don't like uneven numbers of men/women in starting tribes.

I like it, too.

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova
S35 theme discussion: I feel like they've completely lost track of what made Cagayan a good season. Right after that aired, you had Jeff talking about how they decided on the theme organically, and how it was important to have good casting be the primary motivator in picking the players and letting any theme follow from there.

The themes after that have become increasingly suffocating. All of the storytelling is overly focused on how a certain Collar influences a person, or how they're taking advantage of their Second Chance, or how Millennials act this way while Gen Xers act this way. Heroes/Healers/Hustlers is even more hyperfocused, and that link said they put out casting notices to specifically fit the theme.

Brains/Beauty/Brawn is just as stupid of an idea in a vacuum, but the show felt more aware of how arbitrary those categorizations are and let the contestants decide the degree to which they wanted those labels to define them. Seeing the "Brains" tribe get super cocky about how smart they are before they get cut down to size is entertaining. Seeing people say "As a Healer, this is how I approach life and the game of Survivor..." in every confessional is bad.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I wasn't sure they could top Millenials vs. Gen X for dumbest theme, but this cuts really close alright.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
S35
I can't believe they're rehashing this same theme again. gently caress. That really makes me think they're not going on much longer.

Dugong
Mar 18, 2013

I don't know what to do,
I'm going to lose my mind

It's pretty weird they are reusing the Hero tribe. If it was villains fans would probably be kicking off.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist

gif Probst posted:

pray that it has a location subtitle, i really dont wanna watch survivor triple h

Season 35 and 36 also take place in Fiji. Basically the same locations. They reuse the same beaches even.

Parity warning
Nov 1, 2009



3rd Place, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Dugong posted:

It's pretty weird they are reusing the Hero tribe. If it was villains fans would probably be kicking off.

it isn't other than lack of creativity because it's not the same at all

Modus Pwnens
Dec 29, 2004

ApplesandOranges posted:

I wasn't sure they could top Millenials vs. Gen X for dumbest theme, but this cuts really close alright.

I don't remember that one. Did you mean Mialillenns vs. Gen X?

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
Hasn't Ken suffered enough?

Professor Shark
May 22, 2012

Arcanen posted:

Speaking of productions calming down with dumb twists, Big Brother Canada season 5 (which just finished this week) is worth watching precisely because they did so (with one exception that's revealed right at the beginning of the season). They've always had quite good casting, but were hampered by the constant twists.

Big Brother really suffers from twists, which feel like some sort of weird The Lottery tradition, but BBC takes it to a whole new level.

I'm still in complete disbelief at Karen voting out her closest ally and giving up on the game in order to try to get out someone she has an unnatural hatred towards, no wonder she got zero votes in the end.

Professor Shark fucked around with this message at 13:05 on May 21, 2017

Arcanen
Dec 19, 2005

It was a great season we want people to watch, spoiler tags might be appropriate?

Professor Shark
May 22, 2012

There we go

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I can't tell if CBS is actually getting feedback that people like the themes so they keep doing them, or if they know we dislike the themes but also that they'll bring in enough traffic to justify it.

I mean the last 'non-themed' season was Philippines, five years ago.

jivjov
Sep 13, 2007

But how does it taste? Yummy!
Dinosaur Gum
It's gotta be the latter, especially given that we keep hearing that most of the casting is done themeless and then a theme is forced upon the people they've found. This upcoming season seems to be a notable exception.

Binary Logic
Dec 28, 2000

Fun Shoe
What a bizarre concept
Healers are heroes to the people they help.

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Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!
Chill about the lovely theme and Survivor being on its last legs.

It's like casting Ozzy again. You guys have to realize that fans like us make up a tiny percentage of the people who watch Survivor. poo poo consistently has top ratings for its time slot, statistics that make it look like literally all of them and another twice as many channel flip for Empire the very second Jeff snuffs a torch.

Does it still sell? Yes? Cool. We're getting more Survivor forever, but we're also getting this poo poo because CBS has clear incentive to keep the gravy train going.

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