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Barudak
May 7, 2007

Outrail posted:

Why would you take any pride in having more people? That's insane.

Preparing for your theoretical land war in asia?

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Power Khan
Aug 20, 2011

by Fritz the Horse
Hm, I'd guess the editor wasn't interested in the subject and/or doing his job properly, and had to meet a deadline. Any further arguments that complicate the article by honest research and interviewing people who could have a clue are annoying and would make him leave the office late, so none of that.

CIGNX
May 7, 2006

You can trust me

Blistex posted:

Where the gently caress did he get his journalism degree?

He didn't. He's a political scientist, which means he wrote that piece so that people will keep hiring him as an advisor/consultant or to get people to buy more of his books.

This dude coined the term "Thucydides Trap," which is suppose to describe the situation where fear of a emerging new power will cause current dominant powers to go to war with said new emerging power. It's all the rage with foreign policy types with regards to China, so you can see why he will keep trying to shill his insight into this supposedly emerging geopolitical problem.

CIGNX fucked around with this message at 21:47 on May 24, 2017

Fojar38
Sep 2, 2011


Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia


also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->
Yeah I'm getting real tired of hearing the phrase "Thucydides Trap" from foreign policy wonks. The existence of that kind of "trap" nowadays requires China to be way more powerful than it actually is so it makes sense that he'd be trying to portray it as such, what with the sunk intellectual capital. It's one of the reasons Martin Jaques and Jim O'Neill keep loving the "China Rising" chicken in tyool 2017 even though it should be obvious to anyone with a clue that it isn't happening

In fact when I see that phrase in a foreign policy articles nowadays my eyes glaze over because it seems to almost universally be mentioned by people with a painfully superficial understanding of what's going on who have no ideas of their own.

Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 22:14 on May 24, 2017

communism bitch
Apr 24, 2009

Fojar38 posted:

That article doesn't even anger me; it genuinely baffles me. Most articles have a point but this is just a massive blowjob to China without any policy recommendations or point beyond talking about how great China is. Is this guy trying to up his guanxi? Global Times editorials are more sanguine than this.
In the UK a bunch of newspapers have been selling a lot of ad space and establishing low-key working relationships with Chinese state papers and advertisers. The consequence is a fuuuuuckload of China rear end-kissing articles, particularly in one (formerly respectable) establishment broadsheet paper called the Telegraph. It's gotten to be so obsequious towards Great China that other newspapers have started calling them out on it. I wouldn't be surprised if American papers are facing the same problems of stagnating or declining circulation and a collapse in profits, maybe they've been selling a lot of ad pages to Chinese interests?

communism bitch fucked around with this message at 22:21 on May 24, 2017

SaltyJesus
Jun 2, 2011

Arf!
the torygraph respectable when

Fojar38
Sep 2, 2011


Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia


also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->
American news media is actually experiencing something of a renaissance because of Trump.

It's pretty funny that the Telegraph apparently blows China that hard though considering it's blocked in China.

communism bitch
Apr 24, 2009

SaltyJesus posted:

the torygraph respectable when

I didn't say good. I said respectable, in the sense of being a very "establishment" paper.

Also i may be thinking of the Times or something. It's one of the big broadsheets anyway. Private Eye regularly rips them a new one on it.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
So last night Hong Kong had really bad weather with big thunderstorms and rain.

MU765 from Nanjing managed to land but missed a specific turn out of the runway and the pilot claim he "slipped". The pilot was a bit shook up and just stalled on the runway instead of getting the gently caress out. Air Traffic Control was not impressed at all. There was going to be another flight from the KLM landing 500 feet but ATC managed to have them pull up.

The whole fiasco caused 2 hours of clogged delays but luckily no one was hurt. Here's the news story and recording, it's in Cantonese :dwi:

http://hk.dv.nextmedia.com/actionnews/local/20170525/20032888/20152179

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.


Oberleutnant posted:

I didn't say good. I said respectable, in the sense of being a very "establishment" paper.

Also i may be thinking of the Times or something. It's one of the big broadsheets anyway. Private Eye regularly rips them a new one on it.

Well frankly even BBC gets in on fellating China, though that might have more to do with government policy I guess

LentThem
Aug 31, 2004

90% Retractible

caberham posted:

So last night Hong Kong had really bad weather with big thunderstorms and rain.

MU765 from Nanjing managed to land but missed a specific turn out of the runway and the pilot claim he "slipped". The pilot was a bit shook up and just stalled on the runway instead of getting the gently caress out. Air Traffic Control was not impressed at all. There was going to be another flight from the KLM landing 500 feet but ATC managed to have them pull up.

The whole fiasco caused 2 hours of clogged delays but luckily no one was hurt. Here's the news story and recording, it's in Cantonese :dwi:

http://hk.dv.nextmedia.com/actionnews/local/20170525/20032888/20152179

how long were the delays from those facebook videos showing manhole geysers and water getting ankle-deep in public buses

my favorite part was that it was just like thailand, where people just casually wade through knee/waist-high sewage water


Outrail posted:

Why would you take any pride in having more people? That's insane.

its an asia thing - there was a story here a couple of times about a guy's korean coworker trying to brag about how korea had more lakes

its always about trying to win tiny footholds in your attempt to validate superiority

Grand Fromage
Jan 30, 2006

L-l-look at you bar-bartender, a-a pa-pathetic creature of meat and bone, un-underestimating my l-l-liver's ability to metab-meTABolize t-toxins. How can you p-poison a perfect, immortal alcohOLIC?


There is that dumb number dickwaving but every Chinese person I've ever had a population conversation with thinks it's lovely that China has so many people and wishes it had half as many, I don't think they'd actually care about this one.

Jimmy Little Balls
Aug 23, 2009
My teacher is currently telling a room full mainly of Africans that dark skin is very ugly.

Slim Jim Pickens
Jan 16, 2012

Private Speech posted:

Well frankly even BBC gets in on fellating China, though that might have more to do with government policy I guess

British foreign office is full of dumb englishers that have internalized their own stereotypes of orientals so far that they are consciously kow-towing to the PRC and thinking they've figured out how to work the Chinese angle



Grand Fromage posted:

There is that dumb number dickwaving but every Chinese person I've ever had a population conversation with thinks it's lovely that China has so many people and wishes it had half as many, I don't think they'd actually care about this one.

I do not understand how Chinese people stand going to any tourist stop or large event or neighbourhood pool when you literally cannot see a single thing past the crowd of people surrounding you.

Grand Fromage
Jan 30, 2006

L-l-look at you bar-bartender, a-a pa-pathetic creature of meat and bone, un-underestimating my l-l-liver's ability to metab-meTABolize t-toxins. How can you p-poison a perfect, immortal alcohOLIC?


Slim Jim Pickens posted:

I do not understand how Chinese people stand going to any tourist stop or large event or neighbourhood pool when you literally cannot see a single thing past the crowd of people surrounding you.

Me either. I just don't bother. There's a whole bunch of stuff in this country I'd like to see but never will because it's ruined by the endless crowd of spitting rednecks.

What gets me is sometimes it's easily avoided, but nobody seems to care. There are so many situations where like literally everyone goes to the grocery store at 6 PM but if you go at 4 or 8, it's empty. Not that I'm complaining.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
I tend to like big cities though, you get better public transportation, better infrastructure, better flight connections, different kinds of restaurants, more cultural stuff (don't know much about Chinese cities), and you don't need a freaking car.

Then again there's higher cost of living, noise pollution, violence, and all the bad city stuff.

Hello I'm from Hong Kong and Hong Kong is a great place to be (if you dont have to worry about a house)

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
This goes without saying. gently caress OSAKA

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

LentThem posted:

how long were the delays from those facebook videos showing manhole geysers and water getting ankle-deep in public buses

my favorite part was that it was just like thailand, where people just casually wade through knee/waist-high sewage water


2 hour flight delays but luckily our city managed to drain everything pretty fast unlike mainland cities where the drainage systems get blocked by garbage and is quite inadequate

Slim Jim Pickens
Jan 16, 2012

Grand Fromage posted:

Me either. I just don't bother. There's a whole bunch of stuff in this country I'd like to see but never will because it's ruined by the endless crowd of spitting rednecks.

What gets me is sometimes it's easily avoided, but nobody seems to care. There are so many situations where like literally everyone goes to the grocery store at 6 PM but if you go at 4 or 8, it's empty. Not that I'm complaining.

Some guy in China is the publicity photographer of those four mountains and the sichuan hot spring etc., and I bet they are the happiest guy in China because the government just closes those parks for the hour while he works.

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
So, is China's government actually doing the best it can to achieve long-term goals, or is it falling to the broad appeal of immediate returns, especially to shore up government credibility?

Fauxtool
Oct 21, 2008

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
If you can call juvenile posturing short term gains and constantly moving back the goalposts long term planning. Then yes, China is doing great

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

Pick posted:

So, is China's government actually doing the best it can to achieve long-term goals, or is it falling to the broad appeal of immediate returns, especially to shore up government credibility?

We don't know. There might be some arm of the government that believes in long term development but no one has heard of it.

It's actually quite opaque and every 5 years there's a giant plan or some initiative and which everyone is supposed to follow. Ages ago, it used to be CARS FOR ALL, now it's GREEN ENERGY! There are all these different government departments and largess going so no one really has a clue what the gently caress is going on. The current leadership consolidating power and removing and creating new posts is muddying the picture as well.

I guess for actual long term goals it's ONE BELT ONE ROAD? XIJINPING THOUGHT? :suicide:

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
One belt one road sounds like one of those disturbing videos from the internet.

Fojar38
Sep 2, 2011


Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia


also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

Pick posted:

So, is China's government actually doing the best it can to achieve long-term goals, or is it falling to the broad appeal of immediate returns, especially to shore up government credibility?

Reforms involve gradually giving up power. So no.

Fasdar
Sep 1, 2001

Everybody loves dancing!

caberham posted:

This goes without saying. gently caress OSAKA

Pffft please Osaka is a beautiful industrial hellhole and dining destination.

LentThem
Aug 31, 2004

90% Retractible

Grand Fromage posted:

What gets me is sometimes it's easily avoided, but nobody seems to care. There are so many situations where like literally everyone goes to the grocery store at 6 PM but if you go at 4 or 8, it's empty. Not that I'm complaining.

dinner must begin at 7pm, therefore all restaurants will have huge lines for the next hour while all supermarkets will be completely empty. The exception to this is Sunday evening, when Dinner at Home is mandatory. On this day all restaurants will be mostly empty at 7pm.

but again much like my urinal stories where people piss all over themselves: People WILL NOT change their behavior to reduce hassle or inconvenience for themselves.

Edit:

I would blow Dane Cook posted:

One belt one road sounds like one of those disturbing videos from the internet.

Related to the above, every slogan or soundbite in China must be exactly 4 words
One belt, one road
One world, one dream
Better city, better life
Very yellow, very violent

LentThem fucked around with this message at 05:47 on May 25, 2017

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
You and Me : Gay
2 Girls 1 Cup
No sex before marriage

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
Wait people at at 7? I thought they eat earlier than that, some restaurants in Shanghai have last order at 830pm.

My girlfriend's family eats at 6.

:suicide:

Most Chinese cities don't really stay up late like South East Asian ones. Even Shanghai and Beijing are pretty tame during the weeknights

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
2 belts one road.

WarpedNaba
Feb 8, 2012

Being social makes me swell!

Blistex posted:

What? I really can't get my head around the vibe of that place.

1. North Korea good.
2. USA bad.
3. China good/sole superpower by 2020
4. Chinese agents who steal from the US . . . BAD? :what:

Do you have a link?

Are you... are you asking for a logical explanation for the opinions of a D&D Mod?

For godsake man, at least an honest snipe hunt would get us out-of-doors!

Riptor
Apr 13, 2003

here's to feelin' good all the time
Haier you should call your place the plungin' dungeon

Grand Fromage
Jan 30, 2006

L-l-look at you bar-bartender, a-a pa-pathetic creature of meat and bone, un-underestimating my l-l-liver's ability to metab-meTABolize t-toxins. How can you p-poison a perfect, immortal alcohOLIC?


caberham posted:

Wait people at at 7? I thought they eat earlier than that, some restaurants in Shanghai have last order at 830pm.

My girlfriend's family eats at 6.

:suicide:

Most Chinese cities don't really stay up late like South East Asian ones. Even Shanghai and Beijing are pretty tame during the weeknights

6 PM is also my experience. Things start shutting down at 8.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
Then again, the sun sets pretty early in northern China and the mid day doesn't get stupidly hot.

No one in Bangkok wants to be out at noon. So everything just gets pushed back a little

Grand Fromage
Jan 30, 2006

L-l-look at you bar-bartender, a-a pa-pathetic creature of meat and bone, un-underestimating my l-l-liver's ability to metab-meTABolize t-toxins. How can you p-poison a perfect, immortal alcohOLIC?


In Korea 7 is about when you'd think about leaving the apartment for the evening.

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost

Fojar38 posted:

Reforms involve gradually giving up power. So no.

I mean, don't they worry about the strength of the system, considering they seem to intend their children--specifically their children--to inherit it?

Grand Fromage
Jan 30, 2006

L-l-look at you bar-bartender, a-a pa-pathetic creature of meat and bone, un-underestimating my l-l-liver's ability to metab-meTABolize t-toxins. How can you p-poison a perfect, immortal alcohOLIC?


But they don't. Everyone who can is stealing everything that isn't nailed down and sending the kids and money abroad to get dat sweet foreign passport and GTFO.

LentThem
Aug 31, 2004

90% Retractible

Grand Fromage posted:

6 PM is also my experience. Things start shutting down at 8.

Interesting, I wonder if it's related to closure times.

A lot of restaurants in shanghai are built against/inside shopping malls and will close at 9:30 or 10:00 (last orders an hour before). I lost track of time the other day and suddenly it was 9:15, so my only nearby dinner options were like convenience stores and mcdonalds/kfc

A really good dumpling place a couple of blocks from my home would just close for the night if at any point after 7 there were no customers, as opposed to just having standard hours.

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

Pick posted:

I mean, don't they...

:china:

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


image text goes here
Christmas comes early for Fojar

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/23/business/moodys-downgrades-china-economy-debt.html

quote:

SHANGHAI — China has gone on a spending spree, borrowing money to build cities, create manufacturing giants and nurture financial markets — money that has helped drive the economic powerhouse in recent years. But the debt-fueled binge now threatens to sap the energy of the world’s second-largest economy.

With its economy maturing, China has to pile on ever more debt to keep its growth going, at a pace that could prove unsustainable. And the money is increasingly flowing through opaque channels that operate outside the regulated banking system, leaving China vulnerable to blowups.

A major credit agency sounded the alarm on Wednesday, saying the steady buildup of debt would erode China’s financial strength in the years ahead. The agency, Moody’s Investors Service, cut the country’s debt rating, its first downgrade for the country since 1989.

China’s debt problems stem from the global financial crisis in 2008. As world growth faltered, China unleashed a wave of spending to build highways, airports and real estate developments — all of which kept its economic engine chugging.

To finance the construction, local officials and state-run companies borrowed heavily. Even after the worst of the crisis passed, China continued to rely on debt to fund growth.

But debt no longer packs the same economic punch for China. An aging work force, smaller productivity gains and the sheer math of diminishing returns mean it must borrow more money to achieve less growth.

China’s debt has been increasing lately by an amount equal to about 15 percent of the country’s output each year, to keep the economy growing from 6.5 percent to 7 percent. Overall debt in China, by the same measure, barely changed from 2001 to 2008, when the country achieved some of its fastest double-digit growth rates.

As a percentage of economic output, China’s total debt — including the government, households and businesses — is now high for a developing country. It has similar levels to those of many developed Western countries, though its debt load is still considerably smaller than Japan’s, according to the Institute of International Finance, a trade group of global banks. Some economists now compare China to Japan, where a lack of willingness to deal with its deeply indebted companies has led to what is commonly called the Lost Decade, a period of sluggish economic activity there.

Against that backdrop, Moody’s on Wednesday lowered its rating on China’s sovereign debt by one notch, to A1 from Aa3. The move brings it in line with another major ratings company, Fitch Ratings. A third, Standard & Poor’s, rates China a notch higher but with a negative outlook, which means its next move is also likely to be downward. Moody’s changed its outlook for further rating changes to stable from negative.

“The downgrade reflects Moody’s expectation that China’s financial strength will erode somewhat over the coming years, with economywide debt continuing to rise as potential growth slows,” the credit rating company said.

China criticized the move within hours, saying that Moody’s failed to understand China’s legal or financial systems and underestimated the country’s efforts to restructure its economy to achieve more sustainable growth. More broadly, experts inside and outside China believe Beijing probably has the power to stop a meltdown of the kind that slammed the United States and much of the rest of the world a decade ago, thanks to the Chinese government’s considerable financial firepower and ironclad grip on the country’s banking system.

Economists at the International Monetary Fund and at Goldman Sachs have issued a series of increasingly strong warnings about the pace at which the debt is rising. China’s financial system has traditionally been firmly under the control of the central government, giving many economists confidence that Chinese officials could contain a crisis of the sort that gripped the world in 2008. Still, fast growth and signs of fragility in the financial system have given pause to economists and Chinese regulators alike.

Chinese corporate debt has been mounting, and China’s banks show little inclination to force companies to do something about it. China’s banks have kept lending to the country’s state-owned companies, even to those in trouble, to help them make payments on previous loans. That helps those companies stay in business and helps the economy keep growing despite mounting debt.

Traditionally, China’s lending has come from four big, state-controlled banks with a solid deposit base. But in recent years, local and provincial banks that lack the deposit base and nationwide branch network of their bigger brethren have grown rapidly, and they now account for half of the assets in the banking system.

Many of these smaller banks raise money partly through borrowing the deposits of the big four banks and partly by selling lightly regulated investments — called wealth management products — to their customers. A growing number of nonbank financial firms also market their own wealth management products and invest the money with little disclosure of where the money goes.

The worry is that if the public loses confidence and stops buying these wealth management products from smaller banks and nonbank firms, a wave of defaults could spread across the economy.

In a series of interviews over the last two weeks, current and former Chinese officials contended that the structure of their country’s debt made it inherently much more stable than the debts of other nations.

For starters, China owes little to other countries. Brad Setser, a former Treasury official specializing in China’s finances who is now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that China’s $3 trillion in foreign reserves far exceeded the country’s overseas debts and gave it a large financial cushion.

Within China, most households also appear to have manageable debts, in contrast with the United States before its mortgage crisis. Only in the past year and a half has China allowed rapid growth in mortgages to help the construction industry as well as its suppliers, like steel mills and cement factories. Overall mortgage debt is still fairly low.

The central government in China also owes little over all, with total debts equal to less than 40 percent of the economy. That means the government has a lot of capacity to borrow money and bail out troubled borrowers.

By far, the biggest category of debt in China is corporate debt, which equals almost 170 percent of annual economic output. This debt consists overwhelmingly of loans by state-owned banks to state-owned enterprises.

On Wednesday, the Finance Ministry said the downgrade was a mistake because it applied to China’s central government bonds, even though the central government was not on the hook for the debts of local governments and state-owned companies.

Still, China could end up paying the tab. The central government could decide to tell the state-owned banks to write off a lot of their bad loans, and then recapitalize the banks by providing money to them. Mr. Setser, at the Council on Foreign Relations, said he thought that a large, government-led recapitalization of the banks was likely but that the central government had the financial strength to handle it.

Stock markets in China and Hong Kong opened lower on Wednesday on the news but soon recovered their losses and closed with little change. The Australian dollar, which is widely considered a barometer of investor sentiment about China because Australia sells such a large amount of its raw materials to that country, weakened against the United States dollar.

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Zil
Jun 4, 2011

Satanically Summoned Citrus



Unnamed country strikes again.

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